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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
553 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

Updated for 12z aviation discussion...
issued at 549 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 334 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

Dry weather is expected as upper level ridging continues to dominate
the weather across the Midwest. Breezy conditions will arguably be
the most noticeable sensible weather element of the next 36 hours.

A nearly symmetric weather pattern across North America was
characterized by two longwave troughs across eastern and western
Seaboard...with an aforementioned ridge over the central Continental U.S.. as a
result surface high pressure was centered over the Mississippi River
valley...with a Lee side trough along the foothills of the Rocky
Mountains. Light winds in western WI quickly transitioned to breezy
southerly winds across the Dakotas. As the trough shifts eastward so
to will the surface low...and southeasterly winds will increase
across the region today. A few afternoon gusts of 30 to 35mph are
expected across western Minnesota. Later tonight gusts should taper off
somewhat...but southerly winds should keep low temperatures about 10
degrees warmer than the previous night. Once again there is a zero
chance of any precipitation over the next 36 hours.

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 334 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

By Monday...the pattern will transition from a trough-ridge-trough
set up across the Continental U.S. To more of a split flow pattern with a
stronger northern stream jet. The timing and location of the
heaviest precipitation early next week hasn't changed much for
several model cycles now...so we're gaining confidence that this
will have minor impacts locally with the front focusing a vast
majority of the precipitation south of the forecast area. Eastern Minnesota and
especially west central WI will be on the northern fringe of the
rain shield...so a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch is about
all that's expected unless there is a dramatic northward shift
over the next couple days.

The split flow pattern will keep temperatures relatively mild for
early November with highs/lows running near or slightly above
climate normals. Beyond the precipitation event on Monday...there is a
clipper system dropping down across the area on Wednesday that
appears like it will bring a light rain/snow mix to central and
northern Minnesota before moving into northern Wisconsin Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS/European model (ecmwf) keep a bulk of the precipitation
north of the I-94 corridor...meanwhile...the 01.00z Gem takes a
2-4" snow band right across the forecast area and into northern
Iowa. Not ready to buy into this solution 120-144hrs out...but
snow accumulation will be something to monitor as we get closer to
Wednesday. As of right now...the temperature profile is fairly warm
for those kind of snow amounts. There is a nice surge of cold
air...however...and portions of Minnesota/WI/mi received plenty of snow
the other day with that cold surge.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 549 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014

VFR conditions throughout. Main concern will be strong south-southeast winds
this afternoon with gusts near 30kts possible in western Minnesota...and
near 20kts in western WI. Gusts should taper off after sunset this
evening...but south-southeast winds will continue overnight.

Kmsp...
VFR throughout. See general discussion for additional information.

/Outlook for kmsp/
sun...VFR. Winds south-southeast at 15g25kts.
Monday...VFR with small chance of MVFR cigs/shra. Wind south-southwest at 10kts.
Tuesday...VFR. Winds west-northwest at 10g15kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
Minnesota...none.
WI...none.
&&

$$

Short term...jrb
long term...clf
aviation...jrb

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