Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
255 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

Short term...(tonight through saturday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

The main forecast concern will be timing and coverage of
precipitation. Latest short range model guidance suggests the
most recent radar returns over north central kanas will struggle
to make it to eastern Nebraska much before 06z as the current
airmass is quite stable. Decided to go fairly pessimistic with the
near-term forecast and have a dry forecast through midnight.
Thereafter as the first of two weak middle-level shortwaves track
into the forecast area and we should see showers and thunderstorms
develop and linger into Thursday morning. There really isn't a dry
period in the forecast until Saturday morning...but did lower
precipitation chances for Thursday afternoon before ramping them
up again when the second shortwave finally tracks through the
forecast area during the evening. As mentioned we expect a dry
period of weather to begin Saturday morning as surface high
presure takes hold and 500mb heights rise. 850mb temperatures will
take a bit of dip...though remain well above freezing...allowing
Saturday morning lows to drop into the middle 40s north to low 50s
south and east.

Long term...(saturday night through wednesday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

This forecast period begins with the surface high pressure
area still in place. This lull in precipitation looks to persist
through early Wednesday. By middle- Wednesday the upper level ridge
moves further east and western Continental U.S. Trough becomes established.
As a result the forecast area will see several short wave trough
pass through bringing rain back in the forecast by Wednesday and
likely thereafter.

&&

Aviation...(18z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wednesday may 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light winds and
clear skies will give way to southeast winds and increasing middle
level clouds tonight. Will not mention any precipitation at this time due
to uncertainty of it making it to the taf sites...but some
showers may be possible into the morning on Thursday. Cloud bases will
continue to lower on Thursday morning but should stay at or above fl040 through the
end of the period.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Pearson
long term...Pearson
aviation...boustead

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations