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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
212 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Short term...(today through thursday)
issued at 210 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

WV imagery this morning revealing an amplified ridge situated over
the western Continental U.S. With a downstream trough over the eastern Continental U.S.. this
pattern has be stagnant the last several days and will
remain so heading into this weekend.

Only active weather of concern will occur this morning just west of
the County Warning Area. Rap13/hires arw/hires nmm all advertise precipitation development
within axis of 850-700mb qg forcing/strong middle layer ageostrophic lift
extending from the Nebraska panh to central Kansas. Activity should develop
within area of low conditions pressure def where 310k isentropic upglide will
be focused. Again though...best forcing is prognosticated to remain just
west/SW of the County Warning Area this morning. Will watch radar trends the next
couple hours then determine if probability of precipitation will be necessary. Otherwise
rest of the forecast period will quite pleasant for this time of the year.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 210 am CDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Models agree large scale flow will for the most part remain
stagnant with a ridge west and trough east. Given this see little
reason for any major changes to going forecast. Precipitation chances Sun night
through Tuesday revolving around a frontal boundary dropping into the Central
Plains. GFS is a bit faster than the ecm dropping the boundary south.
Nevertheless...small probability of precipitation still reasonable for now. Otherwise
stagnant pattern will help maintain afternoon highs in the low/middle 80s
through the extended periods.

&&

Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014

VFR conditions are forecast through Tuesday evening. Scattered
showers may develop in central Nebraska and move southeast
overnight. However rain should stay well west of taf sites. Then
scattered to broken clouds at fl040 can be excepted between 15z
and 00z with light north winds.



&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...Dee
long term...Dee
aviation...dergan

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