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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1146 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Short term...(tonight through sunday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Although temperatures and the primary concern in the short
term...stratus development tonight and possibly again Sunday
morning could pose an impact.

Afternoon satellite imagery showed stratus area continued to
shrink with only a small patch in scntrl nebr at 1930z. A weak
wave tracking across northern nebr tonight will bring increasing
boundary layer winds to the forecast area and should help limit
widespread dense fog development. However...there is a good chance
stratus will expand or redevelop over the forecast area later this evening
into Friday morning. 17z hrrr/rap indicated area would most likely
be near MO river and into western Iowa although former model had been
steadily decreasing that notion last few updates. Any low clouds
should then shift NE as southwesterly low level winds increase...although
a GOES fog product simulator from csu suggested much of the forecast area
could get socked back in with low clouds if not fog too. Although
only a patchy fog mention will be made due to the increased blyr
winds...did increase sky cover tonight to reflect the
redevelopment of St and then a bit on Friday as more cirrus likely to
overspread the area. However...airmass warms into Friday as weak
wave passes and forecast will be based on any stratus mixing out
or shifting NE of the forecast area early in the day. No big change from previous
forecast for lows tonight...although did bump up maximum temperatures on
Friday a bit...mainly north as shift to northwest winds could provide a
bit better mixing to counter weak cool advection in afternoon.

Saturday still should be cooler than Friday...although still quite
mild...as high pressure pushes down northern plains behind wave
tracking across southern Canada.

Although upper heights begin falling across plains Sunday ahead of
next trough...mild air spreads back northeast which could
conceivably produce maximum temperatures as warm or even warmer than
Friday...especially south. However...with some hint at stratus
redevelopment as low level moisture begins returning...kept
readings a category or so below those expected Friday...mainly
north.

Long term...(sunday night through thursday)
issued at 255 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

Passage of next trough appears it will be a touch slower than it
looked like yesterday. This should restrict precipitation chances to mainly western
zones Monday but also linger some chance across a good part of the
forecast area on Tuesday. For now probability of precipitation were kept in slight chance or
lower chance ranges. With the delayed frontal passage...maximum temperatures
were raised slightly on Monday.

Cooler weather looks likely behind trough/front in the Tuesday
through Thursday period. Although model smoothing/blending
produced upper 50s/lower 60s most areas those three days...weak
warm advection with a wave on Wednesday could provide a boost in
temperatures at least a category higher then. Also models have shifted
colder on Thursday behind this next weak wave. Both of which
should work themselves out in later forecasts if timing remains
consistent.

&&

Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thursday Oct 23 2014

There remains a chance for stratus and fog to form over eastern
Nebraska taf sites overnight. Ceilings below fl010 and visibilities near 3sm
are possible between 09z and 15z at all sites. If those ceilings/visibilities
do form...they should lift/improve by 15z. Otherwise mainly
scattered to broken high clouds are forecast with light south
winds overnight becoming northwest between 18z and 00z as a weak
cold front moves through the area.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...chermok
long term...chermok
aviation...dergan

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