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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
1123 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Short term...(tonight through thursday)
issued at 259 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

The surface cold front has shifted south of the region into MO/Illinois
and early afternoon surface analysis indicated that the surface ridge axis
extended from central South Dakota into western Nebraska. This ridge axis will cross the
County Warning Area overnight with winds becoming light and clouds clearing. This
will again lead to a chilly night for the forecast area. Some patchy
frost/fog is possible in the river valleys but the airmass does
not appear as cool as Friday night with most lows near or above 40.
The surface hi will quickly shift east of the area on Tuesday with return
flow increasing during the day. We may see a band of middle-level
clouds increase from the west during the afternoon but the County Warning Area should
remain dry through the day. Warm air advection will increase on Tuesday night as a
nocturnal low-level jet develops across Kansas...but the bulk of the
moisture/instability and mass convergence will remain over eastern
Kansas/MO and this is where we expected the greatest coverage of thunderstorms and rain.
We will continue with the schc pop in the south overnight near the
Kansas/MO border but most of the activity should be S of our area.

We should see warmer temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday for the area as
upper level heights increase as well as 850 mb temperatures each
day. The warming may be a bit limited as moisture will also be
increasing during the period as well leading to increased cloud
cover. The models /especially the GFS/ also indicate some light quantitative precipitation forecast
each day across parts of the forecast area. This appears overdone with height
rises and large-scale forcing for subsidence on both days. Thus we
will leave the forecast dry at this time until a forcing mechanism becomes
clearer.

Long term...(thursday night through monday)
issued at 259 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

A progressive shortwave trough will move through the Pacific northwest on Thursday
night and into the plains for Friday/Friday night. This will bring
another cold front to the County Warning Area and will likely interact with moisture in
place to bring a band of rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to the area on Friday night into
Sat morning as the front moves through. We have increased probability of precipitation to
likely during this time. Behind the front from Sat afternoon through
Monday we should see dry weather with temperatures near seasonable
normals.

&&

Aviation...(06z tafs for kofk...klnk and koma.)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Monday Sep 15 2014

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through most of the period.
Koma may see a period of IFR visibility in fog between 10z-14z
with calm winds and Warm River contributing to potential.
MVFR visibility possible at kofk and klnk during this same time.

&&

Oax watches/warnings/advisories...
NE...none.
Iowa...none.
&&

$$

Short term...boustead
long term...boustead
aviation...fobert

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