Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Nashville Tennessee
1248 PM CDT Sat may 25 2013
Update...for 18z aviation discussion.
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Aviation...18z aviation discussion.
Uncertainties...cloudiness associated with dissipating mesoscale convective system complex to our north.
Continue to expect streaming scattered/broken cirrus across middle state in northwesterly flow aloft
to be primary cloud coverage through 26/03z. After 26/03z...expect cloudiness
associated with decaying mesoscale convective system moving into Northern Ohio valley approaching 25/18z...
to move into middle state...spreading at least middle to high level scattered/broken ac/CI.
Even with this additional cloud coverage...some tempo MVFR fog possible csv
26/08z-26/12z. Expect low level moisture to increase overall across taf sites
additionally after 26/13z...leading to scattered cumulus fields also.
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Previous discussion.../issued 611 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Aviation update...for 12z taf package...
VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout taf period for kbna
and kckv. Only high ceilings expected at 25kft. Kcsv may
experience radiational br again in the morning as plateau temperatures
fall into the 40s overnight again. Expect this to be brief and
anticipate tempo group in later taf packages..otherwise also VFR.
Previous discussion... /issued 227 am CDT Sat may 25 2013/
Discussion...
Omega block to continue over the weekend before upper ridge shifts
eastward first of next week with warming temperatures. Clear skies
overnight with light winds have allowed temperatures to fall into the
middle 40s along the plateau with lower 50s elsewhere as 1028 mbar surface
high ridges down through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Complex
out over northeast Texas/southeast Oklahoma with cirrus canopy
streaming anticyclonically into Tennessee. With upper ridge
running north to south through the plains states middle state will be
in northwest flow aloft through Memorial Day. I think the day
shift said it best and I quote "disturbances within the northwest
flow will become apparent Sunday night and Monday. The main focus
of convection will be north of middle Tennessee but on Sunday night and
especially on Monday...there is a risk of convection returning to
primarily the northern half of the County Warning Area. For the forecast will
include 20-30 percent pops". Upper ridge will shift east over
middle Tennessee by middle-week bringing warmer and dry weather to
the area. Other than Sunday night and Monday...dry forecast for
next several days.
Temperatures warm as upper ridge builds this way next week with middle and
upper 80s Monday through Friday.
Boyd
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Ohx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
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