Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
500 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2013
MVFR conditions are expected to develop quickly this
evening and may drop into the IFR category after midnight. Expect
some fog after midnight as well but should stay above 3 miles. May
keep a mention of light snow at okc/oun/pnc for a couple of hours to
start the forecast off... however will not mention any precipitation beyond
this time frame as chances remain very low. Ceilings will rise back
to MVFR by 15z and skies may clear during the afternoon hours from
southwest to northeast as surface winds veer and pick up. Could see a
few gusts over 20kts by afternoon before cold front enters northwest
Oklahoma late in the day on Sunday.
Previous discussion.../issued 403 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2013/
the main concern is determining light precipitation chances and
patchy freezing drizzle tonight into Sunday morning.
Through tonight...will monitor for light snow and light sleet
due to isentropic lift. Latest radars indicated very light snow
and or sleet across the area. Due to the lack of deep
moisture...appears any precipitation will remain very light and
not cause an significant problems. Lowered precipitation chances
across the area as chances of getting 0.01 inch or more of
precipitation remains quite low. Kept the highest chances around
30 percent across northern Oklahoma. At worst...the light snow and
light sleet could cause a tenth or two of accumulation...but this
Freezing drizzle is another concern tonight into Sunday morning as
low levels saturate due to warm air advection. Not confident about
this potential and doubt widespread problems will resut. Kept
patchy freezing drizzle mention in the forecast.
Temperatures tonight will remain nearly steady under cloudy skies.
Sunday will be another cold day. Some clearing could occur.
Went towards the colder side of guidance highs across much of the
area thinking low cloud cover may be difficult to erode...
especially with a strong low level inversion on top of the
snow/icepack across the area. If clearing occurs...currently
forecast temperatures may be way too cold...especially over
southwest Oklahoma and western North Texas.
Sunday night...another reinforcing shot of Arctic air will arrive
to the area with another cold front.
Monday into Monday night...added low snow chances across northern
Oklahoma as another middle level disturbance skirts by the area. Any
snowfall appears to be light. Lots of cloud cover will not allow
for much heating with highs mainly in the 20s.
Tuesday through next Saturday...a warming trend can be expected.
Kept low chances for precipitation across southeast Oklahoma
Thursday night into Friday...though confidence remains rather
low. Temperatures may get to near average by next weekend.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 17 29 18 27 / 20 10 10 10
Hobart OK 16 30 14 25 / 20 10 10 10
Wichita Falls Texas 19 35 22 32 / 20 10 10 10
gage OK 19 38 13 22 / 20 10 10 20
Ponca City OK 21 29 16 23 / 20 10 10 10
Durant OK 21 31 24 34 / 20 10 10 10