Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014
refer to the 06z aviation forecast below...
scattered to broken middle level ceilings will prevail through much of the taf
period with light and variable winds. Winds will increase by 12z
to 15z Tuesday...becoming southerly. An area of showers and embedded
storms is expected to develop over West Texas and track eastward
into western Oklahoma and perhaps western North Texas after 18z.
Mainly rain is expected...with some brief reductions in visibilities with
heavier showers. Occasional thunder can also be expected with this
activity. This activity may gradually drift east...affecting
central Oklahoma terminals after 06z Wednesday.
Previous discussion... /issued 954 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/
small area of light showers developing over west-central Oklahoma
and should hold together overnight and move just south and west of
okc. Additional development over panhandles late tonight still in
some of the models so will not deviate far from going probability of precipitation.
Latest WRF model trending toward the ecm and bringing axis of
greatest rain amounts farther south over body of Oklahoma late
Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Previous discussion... /issued 619 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/
refer to the 00z aviation forecast below...
VFR conditions should prevail through the taf period. Broken middle
level ceilings are expected overnight from near kgag/kwwr down to
klaw/ksps...as another complex of showers develops over the Texas
Panhandle and eventually SW OK. This activity should move into SW
OK and North Texas in the 09z to 15z timeframe. Other scattered rain showers may
develop at kcsm/khbr later in the afternoon. Locally heavy
rainfall may lead to brief MVFR/IFR visibilities at some terminals...but
confidence is too low to include in prevailing or tempo groups at
Previous discussion... /issued 328 PM CDT Monday Jul 28 2014/
rain continues to diminish slowly across southwest Oklahoma and
western North Texas. This area of rain should completely
dissipate later this evening. After midnight...another area of
rain is expected to form over the Texas Panhandle...spreading east
A fairly robust shortwave trough is forecast to round the upper-
level ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday night...bringing very
high chances for rain. This rain may be heavy...and flooding may
become a problem.
The storm system will move away from Oklahoma/North Texas on
Thursday and Friday...taking the rain with it. Only sporadic
showers are expected...if anything...this weekend.
Temperatures will be well below the seasonal average for most of
the week...partly due to a cooler airmass over the Southern
Plains...and partly due to more cloud cover and precipitation than
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 69 87 67 76 / 10 20 60 80
Hobart OK 67 84 66 82 / 30 40 50 50
Wichita Falls Texas 70 89 70 93 / 20 30 40 40
gage OK 65 80 64 75 / 30 40 80 70
Ponca City OK 64 85 66 77 / 0 10 60 80
Durant OK 70 92 70 81 / 10 20 30 60