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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Discussion...
please see the 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

Aviation...
some light rain...and isolated lightning strikes...will remain
possible near okc...oun and Special Weather Statement through about 02z.
Otherwise...most terminals will experience overcast skies around
200-250 tonight. Some lower ceilings around 040-050 will also be
possible. There are some indications of some lower stratus
developing around 025 near okc/oun...and perhaps gag/wwr...late
tonight through early tomorrow morning. However...confidence is
too low to include these in the tafs for now.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 301 PM CDT Friday Jul 31 2015/

Discussion...
with the ridge off to the west...the main forecast challenge is
precipitation chances over the next few days. Forcing is weak and short
term models do not have a good handle on convection...making it
difficult to pin down the details on when and where we will see
showers and storms over the weekend.

Most of what is going on this afternoon seems to be diurnally
driven...so expect this scattered activity to decrease after
sunset. However...a weak low level jet is forecast to develop over
the panhandles...so our western counties may continue to see
isolated to scattered activity overnight.

Low probability of precipitation will continue into early next week as a series of
shortwaves move through the area...until the ridge moves back over
US. As the ridge shifts eastward...temperatures will gradually
come back up next week...with temperatures potentially near 100
again by middle week.

Mad

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 71 90 71 91 / 20 20 20 20
Hobart OK 72 89 71 94 / 30 40 30 20
Wichita Falls Texas 74 94 73 96 / 30 20 20 10
gage OK 70 86 68 92 / 30 40 30 10
Ponca City OK 71 91 72 92 / 10 10 20 20
Durant OK 72 96 73 96 / 10 10 0 0

&&

Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&

$$

06/03/03

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