Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1146 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015
south wind and VFR conditions are expected to continue until
Previous discussion... /issued 624 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/
the 12z aviation discussion follows....
the upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains will continue to
provide mostly clear skies and light to moderate south winds
across Oklahoma and North Texas through the period.
Previous discussion... /issued 353 am CDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015/
the upper-level ridge remains the main contributor to the weather
across Oklahoma and North Texas through this weekend. It will tend
to stifle precipitation and keep temperatures nearly steady
through about Sunday.
Models have not been doing a particularly good job dealing with
the afternoon temperatures over parts of northwest and north-
central Oklahoma. Have made some adjustments to the basic guidance
to account for this for the next several days.
A circulation centered near Houston is forecast to drift north
into eastern Oklahoma by Friday...bringing more low-level moisture
and a slight weakening to the upper-level ridge in that area.
This system may generate a few isolated/scattered showers in the
southeast quadrant of Oklahoma on Friday and into the weekend.
A more significant storm system will approach northwest Oklahoma
late in the weekend or early next week. Models have not been very
consistent in handling this feature...but in any case there is a
possibility of showers/thunderstorms with it as it sends a
surface front into the Central High plains. Assuming convection
occurs with this front...outflow could generate more convection
into northern Oklahoma. As the system remains relatively
close...rain chances will continue into the first few days of next
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 93 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 98 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 98 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
gage OK 98 71 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 94 71 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 96 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0