Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
301 PM CDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
primary forecast concern remains focused squarely on ongoing
thunderstorms and development overnight through Thursday.
Currently... a line of cumulus and isolated showers/thunder continue to
develop along a narrow corridor of instability/lift from central
through northestern OK. This boundary is visibly on WV... similar to a pre-
frontal trough... associated with a 310k isentropic response. Given
cape values of 2000-3000 j/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40kts across
central Oklahoma... any updrafts that develop this afternoon will have
the potential for being strong to severe. However... the better
potential exists in far north/NE Oklahoma and across eastern Kansas/western MO this
aftn/evening... where ongoing convection remains supported by a
better ll moisture/shear environment. For central OK... hail to the
size of half dollars and damaging wind gusts to 60 miles per hour will be the
primary concerns. Tornado potential remains low across central and
southern OK... with the better chances along the northestern OK/Kansas border
and southeastern Kansas... where the better ll shear environment exists... with
0-1km srh values increasing this afternoon to near 300 m2/s2.
Overnight... the larger western trough will dig across The Rockies
forcing a pre-frontal trough across the Southern Plains. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will increase along this boundary overnight...
timing/location of activity remains a challenge... as isolated to
scattered convection is expected initially. Better chances for
precipitation will increase late tonight/early Thursday morning as the primary
front finally pushes in from the northwest. Precipitation chances will exit to the
east through the late morning/aftn. Overall... continue to carry
slight to chance probability of precipitation across northwestern and central/southern OK... with better
chances across north central and eastern OK.
Behind the front... gusty north winds will usher in more Fall like
weather... with highs tmrw in the 70s across northwestern OK to the middle 80s
in central OK to the upper 80s across texoma. Expect temperatures to top
out in the 70s on Friday.
For the weekend... temperatures will rebound as upper level ridging
continues to build over the western Continental U.S.. highs will be back in the
80s by Sunday... continuing to climb well above average into early next
week as S/SW flow continues to persist. With h850 temperatures in the upper
teens/lower 20s by Wednesday... highs will mix out into the upper
80s across OK to the lower 90s across texoma.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 69 83 53 72 / 30 40 10 0
Hobart OK 67 81 52 74 / 20 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 73 88 56 79 / 20 30 10 0
gage OK 57 73 45 71 / 20 30 0 0
Ponca City OK 68 78 51 69 / 60 50 10 0
Durant OK 71 89 57 78 / 20 50 20 0