Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
624 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013
Discussion...
12z aviation forecast...discussion follows...
&&
Aviation...
middle to high stratus deck continues to slowly shift to the east
this morning. South winds will persist...breezy at times...up to
20 kts. Through the day...upper level high pressure will continue
to strengthen over the Southern Plains... with winds remaining out
of the south...gusting to near 30 kts at times this afternoon. Middle
level VFR ceilings will likely linger through the taf period. There is
a slight chance for thunderstorms both this morning and tonight.
Overall...expect all nine sites to remain rain/thunder free
through the period. At the moment...kpnc would be the most likely
location to see rain this morning...but chances are very low.
Jtk
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 359 am CDT Thursday Jun 20 2013/
Discussion...
overall...it has been a fairly calm and quiet night...with warm
and humid conditions and breezy S/southeast winds across the Southern Plains.
Rain and thunderstorms across northern Texas dissipated through
midnight...with a few areas of light rain lingering through 2 am
across north central Texas before ending.
There are two main forecast concerns this morning...the first of
which is thunderstorm chances across far north central OK this
morning...and later tonight for far western OK...along the OK/Texas
Panhandle border. The second concern will be the return of very hot
temperatures to the region beginning today through the middle of
next week.
For this morning...there is a slight chance of thunderstorms across
far north central OK as the upper ridge axis builds into the middle-
Missouri River valley and a surface trough/front pushes into western Kansas.
This combo will provide a region of isentropic lift across southeastern Kansas
and northestern OK. Available low to middle-level moisture will not be a
problem given continued S/southeast flow. Some questions remain for
coverage and timing...but isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop after 7 am across southeastern Kansas...with
the possibility of a few creeping into far northern OK through the
morning. Then later tonight...thunderstorms are looking more likely
to develop over the Texas Panhandle...with a few possibly reaching far
western OK. Severe potential with these storms will remain low.
Through the weekend into next week...temperatures will continue to rise
steadily. Winds will veer slightly to the south/southwest through
Friday as the upper ridge axis elongates through the middle-Mississippi
Valley. This hot...dry flow will result in afternoon highs climbing
to near 100 across western OK and western North Texas. Overall...hot and dry
weather will persist through early next week. There is a slight
chance of a few showers and thunderstorms Sunday over far northwestern OK as
a surface front approaches the region...but expect the vast majority of
the area to stay dry.
No headlines are expected for heat at this time...as maximum heat
indices will only top out in the upper 90s to low 100s. Fire weather
conditions will need to be monitored closely through the weekend
into early next week as breezy south winds remain persistent. At the
moment...min relative humidity values will only bottom out in the lower 20s each
afternoon...but fire weather will still be a concern given the
breezy winds and hot temperatures
Jtk
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 93 70 92 70 / 10 10 0 0
Hobart OK 98 72 96 71 / 10 10 0 0
Wichita Falls Texas 98 71 97 72 / 10 0 0 0
gage OK 96 69 96 70 / 10 20 10 10
Ponca City OK 92 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 10
Durant OK 93 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
&&
Oun watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
11/04/04
