Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
925 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
high pressure will build in behind a departing cold front...and
remain in control the rest of the work week.
&&
Near term /through Wednesday/...
a cold front continues to sink southward across southern PA into southeastern Ohio. Some isolated
showers lingering in vicinity of the fnt but most of the precipitation has ended.
Instability has dmnsh per recent mesoscale and evening radiosonde observation plots. Very dry air
to the north observed on radiosonde observations and satellite...so should be mclr with
cool temperatures after frontal passage. In the WV/Maryland portion of the region...added patchy
fog as frontal passage will not occur until overnight. Could see some fog develop up
until frontal passage especially where heavy rain fell earlier today. High pressure builds
in Wednesday with mclr skies.
&&
Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...
high pressure and dry air will maintain mclr skies through the period. After a
cool start Wednesday night/Thursday morning...experimental temperatures to gradually return to near or
above seasonal avgs.
&&
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
warm and humid conditions are forecast into early next week as broad
ridge is still projected to build over the southern and eastern Continental U.S.. have
used the warmer MOS guidance once again for the period given consistent
heat forecasts as depicted by GFS and European model (ecmwf) models over the past cpl of days.
Chance/near climatology probability of precipitation were also included through the weekend given the
instability that will accompany the warmth and moisture...with limitations
imposed by middle level capping and dependency on shortwave spprt across the
northern periphery of the ridge.
&&
Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/...
showers and thunderstorms will continue to diminish through the
evening as the cold front sags southward. While no mention of rain showers
or thunderstorms and rain was mentioned at any sites...a few cells could still develop
but confidence remains low as to whether they will impact any one
taf site.
Some areas of fog are possible overnight/Wednesday morning at
khlg...kzzv...and especially kmgw due to recent rainfall but
otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the taf
period as high pressure builds eastward.
Outlook.../Wednesday through Sunday/...
general VFR conditions are expected under high pressure.
&&
Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.
&&
$$
07/34
