Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
727 PM EDT sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...
a series of weather disturbances will bring periodic shower and
thunderstorm chances through Thursday. High pressure will build in
Friday.
&&
Near term /through Monday/...
satellite/mesoscale data shows an upper level wave over central WV. This will continue to
drift slowly eastward through Monday. Isolated showers/thunderstorms S of pit should
quickly dspt after sunset. Near term model data shows potential for
stratus developing areas North-East of pit toward morning as well. Will keep chance probability of precipitation
for showers/thunderstorms mainly east-southeast of pit Monday as the upper WV begins to
exit to the east. Model forecasts show instability should be minimal Monday. Well
above average temperatures forecast for Monday.
&&
Short term /Monday night through Tuesday/...
any convection should be dsptg Monday evening as the upper wave continues to
move out. Chance for showers/thunderstorms returns Tuesday afternoon...although some upper
and middle level ridging and lack of a good trigger should help lmt
activity. Temperatures will continue much above average.
&&
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
the district remains in the warm sector for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night. Temperatures will remain above normal along with
a chance of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
moving slowly south from the Great Lakes Thursday will bring
likely showers and thunderstorms for late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Behind the cold front Friday the risk of showers
will diminish and temperatures will drop below normal. Dry weather
can be expected for Friday night into Sunday with temperatures
falling into the 40s for overnight lows Saturday morning.
&&
Aviation /23z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conds expd into the evening...excpt for duj where MVFR ceilings are
expd to continue. As low level moisture increases experimental duj ceilings will drop to IFR
later this evening and continue overnight. Elsewhere...could see some patchy stratus/MVFR
br developing overnight. Extent of the stratus is uncertain...with the
most likely places to see ceilings S-east of pit...as well as fkl/duj.
Conds should return to VFR across the region Monday morning. An exiting upper
level wave may bring a shower/thunderstorm east of pit but confidence too low for
mention in tafs at this time.
Outlook.../Monday night through Friday/...
chance for shower/thunderstorms will continue Tuesday afternoon and increase through Thursday evening as a
cold front aprchs and moves through. Building high pressure and VFR conds expd
Friday.
&&
Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.
&&
$$
07
