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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
415 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WITH A COLD 
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH 
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WINDS FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EASTWARD TO THE CASCADE CREST AND WILL SOON 
SPREAD EAST OF THE CASCADES AND ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERNS 
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH AND BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT TODAY AS WELL AS FALLING SNOW LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS 
WILL INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE KITTITAS VALLEY TO WARRANT A WIND 
ADVISORY TODAY. AS SUCH A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 
KITTITAS VALLEY TODAY FROM 11 AM UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS 
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS 
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500-3000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL 
THEN REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AFTER THAT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TEND TO 
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MIXED AND THEREFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME THE COLDEST 
NIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE 
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE INCHES OF 
SNOW...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY 
AMOUNTS. A COOL AND UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAK 
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED 
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN 
BLUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS 
WILL COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY FROM MONDAY WITH HIGHS TODAY... 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEING ONLY BE IN THE 50S IN THE LOWER 
ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION 
EXPECTED.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DUE 
TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT UPSLOPE 
SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP.  FLOW WILL SHIFT WESTERLY FRIDAY 
EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES 
DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS THE LOW DEEPENS...SOUTHWEST FLOW 
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THIS LOW COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ECMWF STILL HAS THE LOW 
JUST OFF THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE 
INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS NORTHEAST OREGON. 
BUT GFS STILL HAS THE LOW CENTERED OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AS MORE OF 
A SHORTWAVE...AND QUICKLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY 
MONDAY EVENING.  OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS PRETTY 
GOOD FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  

ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL SEEM OR EVEN FEEL LIKE WE ARE COOLER THAN 
NORMAL...THE FORECAST FOR HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 
60S...ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR.  THE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S...WHICH 
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  SO WHILE THIS IS A CONTINUED 
COOL AND UNSETTLED TREND FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING...WE WILL 
STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WEBER  

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  
WINDS WILL PICK AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
15-25KTS...GUSTING 25-35KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 9Z TONIGHT. 
WEBER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  55  33  53  35 /  50  20  30  30 
ALW  57  38  55  39 /  40  20  30  30 
PSC  62  36  60  34 /  30  10  30  20 
YKM  59  32  57  33 /  20  10  30  20 
HRI  61  35  58  34 /  30  10  30  20 
ELN  55  31  53  34 /  20  10  30  20 
RDM  50  22  48  24 /  40  20  40  20 
LGD  52  32  49  30 /  60  20  40  20 
GCD  49  27  48  29 /  50  20  30  20 
DLS  59  37  57  38 /  40  20  40  20 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING 
     WAZ026.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/89/89

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