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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
813 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER 
SOUTHERN CANADA AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE 
EAST TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST OF 
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES BUT THESE WILL BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE 
DAY. A DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS 
THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
COOL TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE 
BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 145 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
MOVING NORTH IN CANADA WITH A TRAILING TROUGH IN EASTERN WASHINGTON. 
THE MAIN FOCUS HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA BUT THERE WILL BE SOME 
LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE 
CASCADES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. 
THIS WILL START A DRYING TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM 
PERIOD. WITH A COOL AIRMASS OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL 
TODAY...MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER IDAHO. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING 
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. COONFIELD

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE HOT THROUGH THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 
IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED 
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP OVER EASTERN OR/WA 
DURING THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE 
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE....RESULTING IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
THE GFS, ECMWF, AND THE GEM HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN OREGON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR 
MOST OF EASTERN OREGON AND FAR SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON DURING THIS TIME 
AND AGREE.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WAVE WILL BRING MORE OF A THREAT OF 
LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT NOT MUCH RAIN.  THE FORECAST KEEPS A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OREGON AND 
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON TUESDAY AFTN/EVE AND WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE.  DUE 
TO THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN OR/WA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF 
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL 
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST BUT WONDER IF THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING 
FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BRING WEAK VORTICITY 
LOBES AND "BLOBS" OF PRECIPITATION THAT ARE ODD.  CONFIDENCE IN 
THUNDERSTORMS TUES-WED IS LOW.  WISTER

AVIATION...12Z TAFS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 6000-9000 
FEET AGL WILL DISSIPATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AND SKIES WILL BE 
CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.  WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10-18 
KNOTS THEN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  WISTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  79  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0 
ALW  79  58  83  58 /  10   0   0   0 
PSC  82  58  86  55 /  10   0   0   0 
YKM  79  51  84  55 /  10   0   0   0 
HRI  81  54  86  53 /  10   0   0   0 
ELN  75  49  79  50 /  10   0   0   0 
RDM  75  39  81  44 /   0   0   0   0 
LGD  73  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0 
GCD  74  47  80  51 /   0   0   0   0 
DLS  77  56  83  56 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

91/94/94






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