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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
430 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK 
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE 
REGION. SOME DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND 
INTO PORTIONS OF THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS ALONG WITH CENTRAL 
OREGON. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS THEY 
SEEM TO STALL AND REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THIS AREA INTO TOMORROW. 
ALSO SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET COULD EXPERIENCE 
SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 

MEANWHILE THE SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN AREAS TOMORROW BEFORE 
SLOWLY EXITING SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES 
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
EXPECTED. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM ON THE PACNW SUNDAY 
NIGHT SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INTO THE WA/OR CASCADES AND INTO 
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL 
BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY EAST THROUGH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM 
FRONT WILL SPILL OVER TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES MONDAY 
MORNING AND THEN INTO THE KITTITAS AND YAKIMA VALLEYS AND CENTRAL 
AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT THE MAIN 
BRUNT OF THE WARM FRONTAL OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE 
POPS TO LIKELY WITH 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY 
NIGHT. TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH 
RAIN LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT 
THE WARM FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH DRYING CONDITIONS 
STARTING ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER OF FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT 
MAINLY EXITS FORECAST AREA INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY FOR 
DRY CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL OREGON FROM DAYBREAK 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MODELS 
HINT AT A RIDGE BUILDING OVER REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY 
FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRYING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT 
INTO THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN IS CURRENTLY 
ORIENTED SOUTH-TO-NORTH ALONG THE CASCADES AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO 
CENTRAL OREGON AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND THE 
COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS 
AS WELL AS THE BLUE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS 
SUCH CONTINUOUS RAIN AND LOW CIGS RESULTING IN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS 
WILL OCCUR AT KPDT AND KALW BEGINNING AROUND 01ST/06Z. KPSC WILL BE 
NEAR THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD 
FRONT AND THUS MAY GET SOME LIGHT RAIN STARTING AROUND 01ST/15Z. 
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ALONG THE AIR TRAFFIC ROUTE OVER THE BLUE 
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN KPDT AND KBKE AND BECOME MVFR BY 22Z AS CIGS LOWER 
AND RAIN BEGINS OVER THE ELKHORNS AND THEN SPREADS NORTH TO TOLLGATE 
WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFT 01ST/02Z. OTHERWISE, TAF SITES WILL 
HAVE CIGS, WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE FROM SCT-BKN, WITH CLOUD 
BASES OF 3000-6000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE 5-10 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 10-20 KTS 
BY 01ST/18Z WITH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON OF 20-25 KTS AT KDLS, KRDM 
AND KBDN.  POLAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  40  51  37  53 /  60  50  10  10 
ALW  44  51  39  53 /  60  50  20  10 
PSC  42  55  37  56 /  50  30  10   0 
YKM  36  54  33  54 /  20  10  10   0 
HRI  40  55  37  55 /  50  30  10  10 
ELN  36  50  33  52 /  20  10  10  10 
RDM  31  50  28  51 /  40  10  10  10 
LGD  41  46  35  50 /  70  70  30  20 
GCD  38  46  33  48 /  70  60  30  10 
DLS  42  54  41  56 /  20  10  10  10 

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

97/99/99




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