Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
1047 am EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
low pressure will track into the Canadian Maritimes later today and
tonight. High pressure is then forecast to build toward the middle
Atlantic tonight and Saturday, then a cold front crosses our region
Saturday night. High pressure builds across our area later Sunday
through Monday, before shifting offshore Tuesday. Low pressure
across the plains Monday will track up across the western Great
Lakes Tuesday, pulling a warm front to our north later Monday night
Tuesday. The associated cold front arrives locally later Wednesday,
then high pressure starts to move during Thursday.
Near term /through tonight/...
930 am estf: not much change from the 830am. Will wind gusts 2-3
more kts here in an interim 11 am update.
Otherwise...today is already a much brighter day than the past couple.
It is windy with northwest gusts of 35 miles per hour in the Poconos and 25-30
miles per hour elsewhere.
Ii will be considerably warmer and be much closer to normal for
late October. Temperatures about 5 degrees above normal.
Looks like variable mixed clouds and sun through 20z then clearing
Tonight will be a fairly quiet night. Winds will lose their
gustiness and become light through the overnight hours. Just some
cirrus at times here and there. We should radiate a bit.
Temperatures will respond to the clearing skies and light winds and
will drop into the upper 30s to middle 40s across the region...ie
near normal lows.
Short term /Saturday/...
Saturday...mostly sunny in the morning and considerable cloudiness
developing during the afternoon. Winds become west and gust 20 to
possibly 25 miles per hour during the afternoon but not quite as strong as
today. A very nice day with temperatures a degree or two warmer than
those numbers of today...in other words still 5+ above normal as
we head for an above normal month temperature wise...probably at
least 2 degrees above normal!
Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
the overall synoptic setup is comprised of a building ridge across
the plains Saturday into Sunday. This assists in forcing another
upper-level trough down into the northeast over the weekend,
however as it closes off it looks to be centered across New
England. A cold front tied to surface low pressure will slide
across our area Saturday night. The upper-level ridge then arrives
in the east during Monday into Tuesday, however with the
progressive pattern the next cold front is forecast to be driving
eastward late Monday and Tuesday. A return flow Monday night and
Tuesday should send a warm front to our north resulting in a much
warmer airmass arriving, then a cold front arrives later Wednesday
with high pressure to follow during Thursday. We used a model
blend for Saturday through Monday, then blended the 00z wpc
guidance in with continuity. Some tweaks were then made after
additional collaboration with our surrounding offices.
For Saturday night and Sunday...high pressure builds to our south
however a strong short wave diving southeastward from the Great
Lakes will dig another upper-level trough across the northeast
later Saturday and Sunday. This will toss a cold front across our
area Saturday night, however limited moisture return and enough
dry air below the cloud layer should result in just perhaps a few
sprinkles across the far north. Another closed low is then
expected to influence our weather, however this is forecast to
track across New England instead of right over our area. The
associated surface low looks to intensify as is exits New England,
which means a tightening pressure gradient down into the middle
Atlantic Sunday. As a result, a breezy day is expected as mixing
deepens /steepening low-level lapse rates/ under a northwesterly
flow. High pressure then starts to build in Sunday night with
decreasing winds and chillier temperatures.
For Monday and Tuesday...an upper-level ridge arrives in the east
allowing surface high pressure to build across our area Monday
before shifting offshore Tuesday. This is expected to result in
warming conditions, especially as warm air advection develops Tuesday in the wake
of a warm front and ahead of the next cold front. No precipitation
is anticipated with the passage of the warm front, with the bulk of
the warm air advection push aimed to our west. No major changes were made for this
time frame, with just some blending in of the new 00z wpc guidance.
For Wednesday and Thursday...the ridge axis is forecast to be
shifting to our east Wednesday as an upper-level trough slides
across the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley. A cold front tied to
this feature should be arriving into our area during Wednesday. Much
of the energy may slide to our northwest, however there is the
potential for a band of showers with the cold front itself. For now,
kept the slight chance to low chance probability of precipitation from west to east. Given the
southerly flow and warmer air continuing to advect northward, warmer
temperatures should occur and a continuity/wpc guidance blend
results in a bump up in the high temperatures for Wednesday. The
cold front should be to our east Thursday with high pressure tending
to build in. The next system is then forecast to already be moving
across the Great Lakes Thursday.
Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
This afternoon...VFR scattered-broken at or above 3500 clears late in the day. Northwest
wind gust around 25 knots.
Tonight...VFR scattered-broken at or above 20000 feet. Northwest wind gusts diminish to less
than 15 knots.
Saturday...VFR scattered clouds at or above 5000 feet become broken ceilings near 500 feet
middle or late afternoon. West wind gust 20 knots.
Saturday night...VFR. West - northwest wind.
Sunday...VFR. Northwest winds at 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30
knots, diminishing to 5-10 knots at night.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR. West to southwest winds less than 10 knots.
the gradient is starting to loosen up a bit but northwest winds will
remain gusty over the waters today, in the 25 to 30 knot range.
Seas will remain elevated through the day, in the 5 to 6 foot range.
Seas and northwest wind will subside tonight... falling below
advisory criteria this evening.
Saturday...west wind gust 20 knots. No headline anticipated for the
Saturday...a cold front moves through at night and some cooling
combined with a pressure gradient starting to tighten up should
result in an uptick in the winds. Overall, below advisory criteria
during the day but then gusts to near 25 knots could develop
overnight in the wake of the front.
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated to be met with
a tight pressure gradient in place and better mixing. Northwest
winds should gust up to 30 knots, but then gradually diminish at
night. The seas will also build, but given an offshore component the
5 footers should be toward the outer edge of the coastal waters.
Monday and Tuesday...sub-advisory conditions are anticipated as high
pressure builds across the area Monday, then shifts offshore Tuesday.
buoy 44065 is currently scheduled for service around January 12,
2015, weather permitting.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for anz430-
near term...drag/meola 1046
short term...drag/meola 1046