Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
408 am EDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Synopsis...
an area of high pressure to the west of our region will drift
eastward today and crest across the middle Atlantic region tonight.
A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley and middle
Atlantic region Friday through early Saturday. More high pressure
will follow for later Saturday and into Monday. An unsettled pattern
will establish itself across the area for Tuesday and Wednesday next
week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure will move into the region today. Expect a mainly
sunny sky...dry weather and warmer temperatures then on Wednesday. It will still be
breezy, especially early, but the wind should be slightly less than
yesterday. The pgrad between this high and strong low pressure off of
new eng is responsible for the gusty wind. The wind should decrease
by late afternoon/Erly evening. Temperatures should end up near normal.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Friday/...
the high will move eastward tonight as an area of low pressure moves across the
Midwest and approaches from the west. Clouds will gradually increase
as the aforementioned low moves closer. It will be another cold
night with many areas into the 30s. With light wind expected
overnight, it may come down to cloud cover as to the need for frost
advisories. The growing season begins for another tier of counties
on Friday.

&&

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
a ridge of high pressure across the area Friday morning will move
east during the day. Low pressure and an associated front will
affect the weather with showers from Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning. The latest models seem to be a few hours slower
with the arrival for the rains...so they may arrive more towards
the late afternoon...but then linger into Sat morning also.
Temperatures will be near normal Friday with highs in the middle 60s
in most areas.

From Sat afternoon through Monday the region will experience
mostly dry weather as high pressure from Canada builds across the
area. There may be a few showers across the northern areas Sat
afternoon...but they should be spotty at best. Temperates Sat
will be above normal...but then drop back to a few degrees below
normal for sun and Monday as colder air arrives behind a cold front
Sat night.

An upper trough developing across the Midwest part of the country
will slowly move towards the east next week. This will bring a
prolonged period of showery/unsettled conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday.
We have not changed to probability of precipitation much from earlier and gone with the
wpc forecast for the most part. High chance/low likely probability of precipitation are foreseen
for these periods. Temperatures will tumble back below normal for
the midweek period with highs mostly in the upper 50s/low 60s in
most areas.

&&

Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

VFR conds are expected through the taf period with high pressure in control.

Expect another day of gusty northwest wind, though not quite as strong as
yesterday. Gusts should reach the 25 to 30 knots range. The wind
should subside during the late afternoon/Erly evening as the high moves eastward and
the pgrad relaxes. Expect the wind to go light overnight with
speeds generally 5 kts or less.

There will be hardly a cloud in the sky today into early tonight but
then clouds should increase as an area of low pressure approaches
from the west.

Outlook...
Friday morning...VFR with increasing clouds.
Friday afternoon through Sat morning...low ceilings/visibilities in frequent
showers. MVFR/IFR possible.
Sat afternoon through Monday...mostly VFR.

&&

Marine...
Gale Warning remain in effect on the ocean and Small Craft Advisory on the Bay. Will
keep the current end time in tact, but there may need to be some
adjustments, especially over the northern waters. A back end Small Craft Advisory will be
needed after the glw comes down on the ocean.

Outlook...
Friday...mostly sub-sca. Showers late.
Friday night through Sat afternoon...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Low end
gale gusts possible over the ocean.
Sat night through Monday night...mostly sub- Small Craft Advisory. &&

Fire weather...
the red flag warning remains in effect for today. With warmer
temperatures expected, a deeper mixed layer, and lower dewpoints,
afternoon humidity values will drop into the teens and 20s. Winds
may be a little weaker compared to Wednesday, but we still expect
sustained winds at least 15-20 miles per hour with gusts 25-30 miles per hour. The wind
should decrease by late afternoon/Erly evening.

&&

Phi watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for paz054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
New Jersey...red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for njz001-007>010-012>027.
Delaware...red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for dez001>004.
Maryland...red flag warning from 10 am this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for mdz008-012-015-019-020.
Marine...Gale Warning until noon EDT today for anz450>455.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for anz430-431.

&&

$$
Synopsis...O'Hara
near term...nierenberg
short term...nierenberg
long term...O'Hara
aviation...nierenberg/O'Hara
marine...nierenberg/O'Hara
fire weather...