Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
328 am EDT Tuesday Sep 1 2015
high pressure will build into the middle-Atlantic area through
midweek. A weak backdoor cold front will move southward into our
region Thursday into Friday. Then, another large high pressure
system sets up across the northeastern United States through the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
by this afternoon, the axis of the broad upper level ridge should be
overhead of the region. With an increase in thicknesses and less
cloud cover, today should be a bit warmer than yesterday. The one
possible exception is near the shore. The benign weather pattern
leads to a prime set up for a well developed sea breeze by this
afternoon. With water temperatures in the middle to upper 70s, the on
shore flow should be enough to keep temperatures near or below
yesterdays highs for locations where the sea breeze arrives before
For locations further inland, it still looks like dew point
temperatures will be low enough to preclude any heat index values
from reaching critical levels for an advisory.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/...
tonight should be a Carbon copy of the last few nights, with one
possible exception of increasing high cirrus clouds overnight.
Otherwise, expect radiational cooling to lead to lows near the dew
point temperatures. Thus could also see some patchy fog primarily in
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure will be the dominant weather feature for the first few
days of September, although the temperatures will feel more like August.
Highs on Thursday Wednesday and Thursday will be about 10 degrees above nrml, and
with dew points in the middle to upper 60s, it will be less than
However, by Thursday and Friday a backdoor cold front will move through the region
and bring at least a chance of some precipitation. We haven't seen much in
the way of rain lately, so any is welcome. Quantitative precipitation forecast amts are low and
many areas will remain dry. However, behind this front, temperatures will
be much cooler (closer to seasonal) and it looks like we have a
beautiful Holiday weekend in store. High pressure will build back in
and bring abundant sunshine and lower humidity. Sat could be a tad
breezy, especially closer to the CST, but that should be the worst
we will have to deal with.
Aviation /07z Tuesday through Saturday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy, and surrounding areas.
Mostly VFR conditions expected today and tonight. There may be some
fog localized to river valleys and The Pine Barrens through 15z, and
again tonight after 09z, but do not expect widespread restrictions
Winds should slowly veer to northwesterly after sunrise but remain
light (less than 10 kt). With the upper level ridge moving overhead,
it looks to be a prime set up for a well developed sea breeze this
afternoon. Thus have included a shift to southeasterly not only at
the coastal (kacy and kmiv) and Delaware valley taf sites (kphl,
kpne, kttn, and kilg). The sea breeze should dissipate near or
shortly after sunset, leading to mostly light and variable winds
Wednesday...mainly VFR conds expected. Some morning fog/stratus
possible MVFR. High confidence.
Thursday through Friday...mainly VFR. However, rain showers/thunderstorms and rain are psbl, with
periods of sub-VFR conditions. There could also be some fog as a
cold front moves through the region. MDT to high confidence.
Sat...VFR conds expected. High confidence.
winds and seas should remain well below Small Craft Advisory
criteria, with peak wind gusts only expected to be near 15kt, and
seas should stay around or below 2 feet.
Wednesday through Thursday...no marine flags anticipated. Seas 2 to 3 feet
with southerly winds 5 to 10 knots, some gusts near 15 knots.
Friday through Sat...wind becomes more east-northeasterly and increases as a backdoor
cold front moves through the region. Seas will rise and they could
approach 5 feet by late Fri, then decreasing by later Sat. Wind
could gust 25 to 30 knots Friday into Sat. By later Sat, conds should drop
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.