Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
244 PM MDT sun may 19 2013
Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 239 PM MDT sun may 19 2013
Currently...slow moving upper low is drifting over central Nebraska
with broad northwesterly flow across Colorado. Cold air aloft and
weak instability have led to scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon...primarily over the
mountain areas...the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa. Lightning and
gusty outflow winds will be the primary threats. There have been a
couple of cells move out east over the plains and this trend should
continue through this afternoon. Temperatures have been pleasant
with lower to middle 70s across the eastern plains.
Tonight...the upper level low will slowly drift northeast with
continued northwest flow across the region. Expect any shower and
thunderstorm activity to dissipate once the sun GOES down and
daytime instability GOES away. Overnight lows will drop into the
upper 30s to middle 40s. The coldest area will be the San Luis valley
where a few upper 20s are possible. Those with outdoor plants in
the San Luis valley should take precautions to protect them.
Monday...very similar conditions across the area that we saw on
Sunday. The large upper level low will drift northeast into South
Dakota with continued broad northwesterly flow across the region.
The main difference will be a weak upper disturbance in the flow
which should increase shower and thunderstorm coverage by late
morning. Expect shower to develop over the central mountains Monday
morning and spread east into the Palmer Divide region and eastern
mountains by early afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible
by by the afternoon as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere.
Areas over the plains will likely see a few showers and
thunderstorms during the late afternoon...but coverage will remain
spotty. Afternoon highs will continue to be pleasant with lower to
middle 70s across the region. Mozley
Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 239 PM MDT sun may 19 2013
Cool weather at the beginning of the time period will transition to a
more warmer southwesterly flow by the end of the period.
At the beginning of this period...00z Tuesday...a few isolated showers
may be over the region...but should quickly dissipate prior to
sunset. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be cool...with lows in the 40s
plains with below freezing temperatures in the San Luis valley. Could see
quite a few clouds over the plains Tuesday night as the upper low
spins to our northeast.
Tuesday...
Maximum temperatures will be in the 70s most plains with 50s and 60s valleys/mtns.
Northwest flow aloft will still be over the region as the low to our
northeast moves only slowly away from the region. This will keep a
northerly component to the surface winds most of the day over the
plains. Precipitation chances will be quite low with only a slight chance
of some showers and thunderstorms and rain over the region....especially during peak
heating.
Wednesday...
Ridge axis will move overhead on this day. Surface winds will transition
to upslope and we should begin to see an increase in low level moisture
over the plains. Showers this day...if any...should be confined
mainly to the greater Pikes Peak region and maybe along the Continental Divide.
Temperatures will warm into the 80s plains...60s and 70s mtns/valleys.
Thursday...
Things may be a bit more active on this day. Moisture will increase
on the plains and a weak area of low pressure is forecast to form over
the eastern edge of the Raton Mesa. If enough instability can be
realized we may see a strong storm or two for over the far eastern
plains and possibly the eastern slopes of the S mountains current models
are showing about 1000 joules of cape will be available.
Friday...
Mountains should be warm and dry and a bit breezy on this day. Plains may
see some isolated thunder as quite a bit cape will be available...but
forcing looks minimal. Temperatures will warm up well into the 80s this day
with 60s and 70s mtns/valleys. We may start to see some fire weather
concerns over the higher terrain this day.
Into the weekend...
Dry and warm southwest flow will dominate aloft. Mountains will be dry
and warm and potentially breezy at times. Plains will likely also be
hot and dry...with only a slight chance of any precipitation over the far
southeast plains. Fire weather concerns will be possible over the weekend.
&&
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 239 PM MDT sun may 19 2013
Showers and thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain
through early evening. A few may drift east over the San Luis valley
to near kals through 02z. Main threats would be gusty outflow
winds...but confidence in a cell hitting the terminal is low.
Several cells have develop over northern El Paso County but have not
impacted the terminal. One or two cells could move over kcos
producing gusty outflow winds 02z. There is still a low threat for
an isolated thunderstorm at kpub but confidence remains low in
occurrence. Expect all thunderstorm activity to dissipate after
sunset with VFR conditions overnight. Very similar conditions are
forecast for Monday...with shower and thunderstorm activity
developing over the mountains and spread east across the region
during the afternoon. Mozley
&&
Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&
$$
Short term...mozley
long term...hodanish
aviation...mozley
