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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
749 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

issued at 741 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Updated to add in the latest observations and to adjust probability of precipitation based
on the latest radar trends. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
continue over Baca...and now northward into Prowers counties.
This precipitation should continue for the next couple of hours.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 411 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Currently...high pressure remains entrenched across The Rockies with
several disturbances across the region. One is over northeast New
Mexico into southeast Colorado...where a persistent area of showers
and thunderstorms are bringing moderate to heavy rainfall to Baca
County early this morning. Another disturbance is is lifting
northward out of northwest New Mexico with showers and occasional
lightning over the San Juan range. Elsewhere...temperatures remain
mild with 60s across the plains...with areas of fog near Lamar.

Today and tonight...the upper ridge will remain in place across The
Rockies with these disturbances lifting north across southern
Colorado. Southeasterly low level flow will help keep low level
moisture in place across the plains. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop by late morning to early afternoon across
the mountains. Weak steering flows will keep most activity over the
mountains...however models are indicating some eastward movement
into the I-25 corridor by late afternoon and this evening. The main
threats will be locally heavy rainfall...lightning...gusty outflow
winds and pea size hail. Areas over the mountains that have seen
rainfall over the past few days will have an elevated risk of flash
flooding with any additional heavy rainfall. Temperatures this
afternoon will remain warm with 90s across the plains.

Expect most shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the
region to dissipate this evening with loss of daytime instability.
Models do agree that energy over northeast New Mexico will likely
keep some showers and thunderstorms going over far southeastern
Colorado into Saturday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be the
primary threat overnight...and areas over Baca County will need to
be watched for the possibility of flooding. Mozley

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 411 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

..subtle pattern shifts for the next several days...

Saturday and Sunday...upper high pressure will meander over New
Mexico...allowing monsoon disturbances to track over the ridge
into Colorado...bringing daily showers and thunderstorms...mainly
to the mountains during the afternoon and evening hours...with
some activity able to linger through the night. Steering winds
aloft will be pretty light during this locally heavy
rain will be a primary concern.

Monday and Tuesday looks like a slight shift in the pattern. A couple
of shortwaves will pass through the northern tier of the US on
these 2 days...possibly allowing for more widespread shower and
thunderstorm development out across the plains during the
afternoon and evening hours. Models are hinting at possible mesoscale convective system
development over the northeast and/or southeast Colorado plains
both evenings. Heavy rain would be a concern. Severe potential
would increase due to increased shear associated with the
disturbances passing by.

Wednesday and Thursday currently look like generally drier days as
upper high pressure amplifies and strengthens over Colorado. Wednesday
looks really quiet...even over the mountains. Thursday still looks quiet
over the plains...but thunderstorm activity starts to pick up again
over the mountains ahead of the next incoming Pacific trough.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 411 am MDT Friday Jul 31 2015

Kals...generally VFR conditions through this morning. There is a
low probability of fog developing over the San Luis valley this
morning...which could impact the terminal with reduced ceilings and
visible...but confidence in occurrence is low at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon...especially after
18z. Reduced ceilings and visible are expected in thunderstorms as they
pass. Ceilings will likely remain around 4-5 kft overnight.

Kcos...VFR conditions this morning with showers and thunderstorms
expected this afternoon after 22z. Reduced ceilings and visible are
expected with thunderstorms in and around the terminal. VFR
conditions are forecast overnight tonight.

Kpub...VFR conditions through this morning. There is the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon which may
impact the terminal. Reduced ceilings and visible are expected in storms
that pass. Mozley


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...mozley
long term...lw

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