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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
841 am MDT sun Jul 5 2015

Update...
issued at 834 am MDT sun Jul 5 2015

Adjusted sky and pop grids to represent lastest model guidance and
observational trends over the last few hours. The central and San
Juan Mountains will be the main area to watch late this morning as the
hrrr and WRF show a cluster of thunderstorms and rain moving over the area between
18-20z...otherwise the current forecast remains on track.
Lukinbeal

&&

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 340 am MDT sun Jul 5 2015

Currently...

Quite a bit of stratiform rain was noted over the western
slope...with some of this activity likely impinging on the Continental Divide
at 2 am. Over the plains...high cloudiness was noted...with temperatures
generally in the 65-70f range.

Today...

Precipitation over the West Slope will continue to move east today. Showers
should increase over the Continental Divide by later this morning and move to
the southern mountains this afternoon. Some locally heavy showers will be
possible...but do not expect any widespread heavy rain.
Nonetheless...burn scars in Mineral County and areas west of Buena
Vista will need to be watched for flash flooding/mudslides. Some of
these showers should reach the I-25 corridor late this afternoon.

Temperatures today will be quite warm...90s will be widespread over the
lower elevations...with a 100f reading possible in and around Lamar.
80s should occur over most of El Paso County with 70s to l80s in the
valleys.

Tonight...

Showers will persist in the mountains through the night. A cool front
should impinge on the Palmer dvd after 00z and this boundary will
race southward during the evening. A band of showers and
thunderstorms should develop...with the best chance of precipitation over
the far eastern plains this evening. Low cloudiness should develop
over the plains later tonight with isolated showers possible. Gusty
north winds should develop over most of the plains towards
sunrise.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 340 am MDT sun Jul 5 2015

Models and ensembles in good agreement through the extended period
with generally active weather across the region.

Monday...a cold front is forecast to have passed south across the
eastern plains by Monday morning with low level easterly upslope
flow across the region. Abundant moisture and weak energy moving
across The Rockies will combine with the low level upslope flow to
produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across the
region. Precipitation will likely be moderate to
heavy...especially over and along the Lee slopes of the eastern
mountains. Area streams and rivers will need to be monitored for
flood conditions with additional rainfall across the area.
Temperatures will be cooler with 70s to lower 80s for highs over
the plains.

Tuesday...the upper level pattern begins to change on Tuesday with
increasing southwesterly flow aloft. This will continue to pump
moisture out of the Desert Southwest into southern Colorado. Low
level flow will continue to be southeasterly upslope. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mountains by
Tuesday afternoon...and spread east across the plains through the
evening hours. Moderate to heavy rainfall will once again be
possible...especially over the mountains...and the flood risk will
continue to be elevated.

Wednesday...models differ on the threat for threat for strong to
severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening over the plains.
Moisture will continue to move in from the southwest. Mountain
showers and thunderstorms are a given during the afternoon and
evening hours. The difference come in to play with a possible
dryline setting up over the far eastern plains. The GFS develops
thunderstorms near the Kansas border Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Shear is marginal and instability modest...so if storms
do focus along the dryline...they may become strong to severe with
large hail and heavy rainfall the primary threats. The European model (ecmwf) is
not as strong with convection over the eastern plains along a
focused boundary. It prefers an mesoscale convective system development after convection
rolls off the mountains and moves east across the plains. One
thing is for certain...where rain falls...it will likely be heavy
with a continued flood threat across the region.

Thursday through Saturday...a monsoon like pattern is forecast to
persist Thursday into Friday with deep southwest flow and abundant
moisture flowing into the area. Daily mountain convection will
continue each afternoon and evening...with activity likely
spreading eastward into the plains. Locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible. Drier conditions are expected on Saturday as flow
turns more westerly with limited activity across the mountains.
Temperatures will also warm across the region Thursday through
Saturday with 80s and 90s for highs. Mozley

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 340 am MDT sun Jul 5 2015

Kcos and kpub...

VFR expected today and most of tonight. May see MVFR
conditions develop due to low ceilings towards sunrise Monday.
Additionally...brief -tsra may affect the taf sites late this
afternoon and early evening. A front will cross kcos at or above 01z and
kpub at or above 02z. Gusty north winds will be possible towards sunrise.

Kals...

VFR expected next 24h. One or two brief -tsra will be possible this
afternoon and early evening.



&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...knots
short term...hodanish
long term...mozley
aviation...hodanish

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