Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1045 PM MST Monday Nov 30 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 241 PM MST Monday Nov 30 2015

The upper low will continue moving away from the forecast area
tonight and will be well east of our area. However...there will still
be enough moisture in the northwest flow aloft to continue bringing some
light snow to the central Colorado mountains tonight and into early Tuesday.
Otherwise the rest of the area will be dry through Tuesday. This
afternoon the mountain areas and adjacent locations area seeing some
gusty winds. These winds will decrease tonight...but there will still
be some light west to northwest winds near the hyr terrain. On Tuesday the upper
flow over the area will be northerly and some of the mountains and adjacent
areas will see some gusty winds again. High temperatures on Tuesday will be a
little warmer over the southeastern plains and I-25 corridor...with temperatures in
the high valleys being similar to or just a little warmer than today.

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 241 PM MST Monday Nov 30 2015

Models in decent agreement through the extended period with
generally dry conditions and warming temperatures

Tuesday night through Friday...the upper level low over the
Central Plains will continue to lift northeast away from the area
Tuesday night. Broad northerly flow will prevail through Wednesday
with a weak disturbance moving south across the region Wednesday
night. Model guidance suggests a dry passage...and if any snow
does would be limited to the central mountains
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

High pressure will then build across Colorado on Thursday and
transition into the Central Plains on Friday as the next upper
storm system moves into the West Coast. Dry conditions will
prevail across the region Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will warm into the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

Saturday through Monday...the storm system along the West Coast
will track eastward into the Central Plains through the weekend.
The GFS has this storm system very moisture starved with dry
conditions prevailing as it passes. The European model (ecmwf) does develop
isolated to scattered snow showers along the Continental Divide by
Saturday...and spreads it east across the plains through Sunday
afternoon. For now have low probability of precipitation across the plains this weekend
but it may actually be dry depending on which model solution wins
out. A cold front will drop south with this system with cooler
afternoon temperatures through the weekend. More zonal flow will
move into the region by Monday with dry weather continuing. Mozley


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1043 PM MST Monday Nov 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24h at all 3 taf
sites...kpub...kals and kcos. Winds will be generally from a west
to northwest direction through tomorrow at 10 to 15 knts...with an
occasional gusts to 25knts possible.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...28
long term...mozley

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations