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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
335 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 335 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Urrent water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating moderate
westerly flow aloft across the an embedded short wave
across the northern Great Basin continues to translate east. Regional
radars indicating generally isolated showers...along with a few cloud
to ground lightning strikes...across the northern and central mts at
this time.

Tonight...Great Basin wave continues to move east across the northern
rockies with decreasing and subsident westerly flow expected across the
area overnight. With best upward vertical velocity lifting north of the area...have kept
isolated to scattered probability of precipitation over and in near the higher terrain through
the early evening...with best coverage across the central mts spreading
east into the Pikes Peak region. Any snow accumulation to be light and
spotty...generally at or above 10k feet. Clearing skies expected through the late
evening and overnight hours...with some patchy fog possible across
portions of the lower Arkansas River temperatures fall into
the 30s and 40s area wide overnight.

Thursday...weak to moderate west to northwest flow aloft prognosticated across
the the short wave trough continues to move east across the
northern High Plains and upper level ridging builds into the Desert
Southwest. Warm air aloft (7c to 11c warmest across western areas)
prognosticated across the area tomorrow...and with a generally light
thermally and terrain driven wind regime...should see dry weather and
continued at or above seasonal temperatures with highs across the lower
elevations in the 60s and 70s...mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain and 30s and 40s at the peaks.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 335 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

Thursday night through Saturday...Ridge moves overhead with
unseasonably mild air aloft. Grids have temperatures tying or
exceeding record highs at kals...kcos and kpub. Main concern for
reaching record highs is the amount of mixing with light winds.
Record highs on the 24th are low compared to surrounding
days...and believe records are possible despite light winds. On
Saturday...anticipate winds aloft to increase during the afternoon
and into the evening. This can increase the amount of mixing for a
warmer temperatures than Friday. However...high pressure on the
High Plains may extend far enough west for slightly cooler air
near the surface. Current grids have temperatures a couple degrees
cooler than Friday. If cooler air stays further east...then
Saturday has the potential to be a couple degrees warmer than

Sunday and trough moves onshore and is forecast to
move to the east. The GFS and most of the ensemble members keep
the trough to the north of the region. This would keep
precipitation confined mostly to the Continental Divide region.
The 12z ec and some ensemble members suggest a deeper trough which
could spread precipitation further south. The 12z ec seems to be the
the strongest with a cutoff over northern New Mexico with deep
northeast upslope along the eastern mountains. Ec has been
occasionally showing this stronger trough and it cannot be totally
discounted. If the ec solution did occur...the eastern mountains
could get a burst of snow with a few inches. In the
grids...increased probability of precipitation modestly along the eastern mountains for
the slight possibility of deep upslope over the eastern
mountains...which would be some snow to this region.

Tuesday and Wednesday...models and ensembles vary on the next
trough moving across the northern rockies. General consensus among
the models and ensembles is to keep any trough mostly to the north
of the region. Extended procedure gave some isolated probability of precipitation to
mostly the higher peaks...which is a reasonable forecast. --Pgw--


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 335 PM MDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014

VFR conditions expected at and als for the next 24 hours.
Expecting isolated to scattered showers...with a possible embedded
thunderstorm...over and near the higher terrain this afternoon and
early a short wave across the northern Great Basin
continues to translate east. Showers to dissipate quickly through the
early evening with clearings skies overnight.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


long term...pgw

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