Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1125 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013
Update...
issued at 806 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013
Adjusted grids/zones to reflect ending of red flag warning this
evening while also continuing the red flag warning from 11 am MDT
Sunday to 9 PM MDT Sunday for fire weather zones
221-222-225-227-233 and 237. Also adjusted grids as needed.
&&
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 301 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013
..fire weather concerns continue across the mts...And increase
across the Southern Plains on Sunday..
Deepening surface low in vicinity of klhx has spread some gusty southwest
winds across the mountains and southern portions of the southeast plains.
As of 20z...surface dry line is located along a line from just east of
klaa...to near kspd. To the west of this line...dew points have been
dropping into the single digits...teens and even some negative
readings across the mountains. To the east of the dry line...dew
points are still in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Latest hrrr still
pushes the dry line into western Kansas by 22z...with dew points
dropping into the 30s along the eastern border. Still concerned
that some initial convection may fire along the dry line late this
afternoon...so will maintain some isolated probability of precipitation out that way. Most
of it will be high based...with gusty winds and lightning the most
likely threats. Couldn't rule out some marginal severe hail and
wind gusts near the Colorado/Kansas border if convective available potential energy can stay up high enough.
Storm Prediction Center has updated the latest outlook to include eastern
Kiowa...Prowers...and Baca counties. Initially 0-6 km shear values
are around 20-30 kts which is marginal for severe...but these values
do increase into the evening...so this area will need to be
monitored. Expect convection to shift quickly eastward into Kansas
through the late afternoon/early evening...though outflows may aid
westward retreat of the dry line.
Overnight...dry line progresses back westward before mixing back
eastward during the day on Sunday as an upper jet in southwest flow
aloft moves across the area. Current Fire Weather Watch will be
upgraded to a red flag warning with the afternoon package as all
areas look to meet critical fire weather conditions. Surface boundary
hangs up just north of the area and with dry line expected to push
into western Kansas during the afternoon...will go with none probability of precipitation for the
entire County Warning Area. Looks like highs tomorrow should stay around 3-5 degrees
below records (cos 90...2012 pub 97...2012 als 84...1969)...though
still way above climatological averages. -Kt
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 301 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013
Sunday night-Monday night...moderate warm and dry southwest flow
aloft continues across the region as a broad upper trough slowly
digs across the Pacific northwest and into the Great Basin. Models
continue to indicate a weak embedded short wave translating across
The Rockies Sunday night with another minor wave moving across the
state late Monday afternoon. First wave sends a weak backdoor cold
front across eastern Colorado early Monday morning before front
mixes out through the early afternoon. Models also indicating
increasing middle and high level moisture associated with second wave
spreading across the area through the day on Monday...which looks to
limit stronger winds aloft from mixing down through the afternoon.
At any rate...could see brief red flag conditions developing across
the eastern mts late Monday afternoon...but looks to be too marginal
to issue any highlights at this time. With the passing waves...could
see some high based convection Monday afternoon and early evening
across mainly the central and eastern mts with highs expected to be
only slightly cooler than Sunday.
Tuesday-Thursday night...fire danger expected to increase across
southern Colorado as Great Basin upper trough slowly lifts out
across the northern rockies through the period. Increasing south to
southwest flow across the area Tuesday develops a La Junta low
Tuesday afternoon supporting the potential for critical fire weather
conditions across the southern mts and adjacent plains as well as
across the far southeast plains...with some more high based storms
possible across the central mts and southwest mts. More widespread
critical fire weather conditions look to be possible across southern
Colorado Wednesday and Thursday with breezy to windy west to
southwest flow aloft. Passing trough keeps chance and slight chances
of thunderstorms across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday
night...with best chances across northern portions of the area.
Models keep best low level moisture well into western Kansas
though latest European model (ecmwf) is a tad further west with dry line Wednesday
afternoon and will need to monitor for possible storms across the
far southeast plains. As for temperatures...should see highs falling back to
around seasonal averages through the period with cooling aloft.
Friday-Saturday...cool and dry northwest flow prognosticated to develop
behind passing trough...keeping slight probability of precipitation diurnal probability of precipitation in place
across the high terrain along with temperatures slightly below
average into the early weekend.
&&
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1123 PM MDT Sat may 25 2013
VFR conditions are expected at kcos...kpub and kals for the next
24 hours. Breezy south to southwest winds are expected at the taf
sites by Sunday afternoon.
&&
Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from 11 am to 9 PM MDT Sunday for coz221-222-
225-227-233-237.
&&
$$
Aviation...28
