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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
739 am MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

issued at 738 am MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Made some minor changes to the probability of precipitation for today. Loaded in the
latest observation and updated the morning fire weather grids.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 446 am MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

An upper ridge will be over the central states today and
tonight...with an upper trough over the Pacific northwest. This will
result in southwest flow aloft and a continued stream of moisture
over Colorado through the period. A shortwave trough will be moving
from southwest to northeast across Colorado today and into the
evening...helping to enhance precipitation chances...especially over the
mountains and high valleys. With good moisture and widespread precipitation
expected over the higher terrain especially along the Continental
Divide...heavy rainfall will be a threat...however the flow aloft
should be strong enough to keep storms moving which may help
decrease flooding chances somewhat. Over the southeast plains the
southwest flow will be less favorable for convection and so activity
should generally be isolated. High temperatures today will likely be similar
to yesterday over eastern areas...but should be a little cooler over
western locations. Tonight the shortwave trough will be moving north
and east of the forecast area and most of the convective activity
should end by around midnight. However...toward Friday morning a
new disturbance will be approaching southwest Colorado and could bring
some isolated precipitation to the Southwest Mountains.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 446 am MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Probability of precipitation...temperatures and gusty winds at times are primary longer
term meteorological issues.

Recent longer term computer simulations and forecast model
soundings suggest that a combination of enough atmospheric
moisture and occasional upper disturbances will allow isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over the forecast
district into Saturday...before drier conditions develop from
later in the weekend into early next week.

Upper ridging is expected to remain centered over far West Texas
during the longer term while an upper low entering the Pacific
northwest at 12z Friday moves into Idaho by 18z Saturday before
shifting into western North Dakota by later Sunday. In
addition...varying degrees of southeastern Colorado Lee-side
troughing should be noted into later Sunday before a northerly to
northeasterly surface surge(courtesy of the upper disturbance
moving across north dakota) pushes across eastern sections by
Monday morning.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term are anticipated from
Friday into Sunday with cooler temperatures then projected next
week. Also...gusty gradient winds should be noted from later
Friday into Saturday night and then again from later Sunday into
Sunday night...especially over eastern sections.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 446 am MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

VFR conditions are generally expected at the taf sites today through
tonight. Kals will have the potential for showers/thunderstorms in the
vicinity...especially this afternoon and will kcos. At
this time it looks like chances for showers/thunderstorms at kpub are too
low to include in the 12z taf issuance. Breezy southwesterly winds
are expected at the taf sites this afternoon...becoming west or northwest
in the evening at kcos and kpub.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...



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