Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
310 am PDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...
Breezy conditions will continue today while temperatures fall
below seasonal averages as cooler air accompanies northwesterly
flow. Temperatures trend back to seasonal averages by the weekend
with dry conditions and light winds expected.
&&
Short term...
Low pressure continues to push into the Pacific northwest. Showers
and isolated thunderstorm activity will diminish over the morning
hours as low pressure begins to track into Canada. Winds will
pick back up during the daytime as a decent pressure gradient
remains over northern California and western Nevada. However, this
gradient will weaken through the day as the parent low tracks
northeast. Winds will lighter than Tuesday, but remain a little
breezy. Gusts will generally be around 25 miles per hour and isolated gusts
up to 30mph north of Highway 50. The showers that occurred
overnight ended up being farther south than previously
anticipated, as far south as Janesville and Honey Lake. Therefore,
have increased relative humidity for areas that received
precipitation overnight.
There are some differences between current and previous model
runs for Thursday and Friday. The upper low is moving more slowly;
this will allow for cooler air to continue to funnel into northern
California and western Nevada. This will effectively slow the
warming trend. Cooled the daily maximums through Friday as cooler
air punches farther south and lingers with northwesterly flow.
Although cooler, we will return to seasonal averages by Friday
with highs in the low 80s for western Nevada and low to upper 60s
in the Sierra. Boyd
Long term...Saturday through Tuesday...
00z model data continued to trend wetter and a bit cooler for late
in the weekend into early next week as strong Pacific jet/precipitable water plume
move from west of the date line into the Oregon and northern California coast
sun-Mon. The GFS showed 120-150kt jet in the Gulf of Alaska nosing
into northern California with precipitable water plume two inches just offshore, and upwards to
one inch over the Sierra and western Nevada. This very moist plume will
result in extensive cloud cover at the least with model soundings
saturated above 600mb. Best upper forcing will be north of jet axis
which models currently show across northeast California into northern Nevada and
points northward. So increased cloud cover considerably sun-Monday and
introduced a low chance of showers for the northern Sierra and areas
north of I-80 Sun night-Monday and far north into Tuesday as upper jet
stream begins to retreat northward in response to expanding ridge
near The Four Corners region. Probability of precipitation will likely need to be raised
further in these areas if models show persistence in this pattern.
Unless models come further south with upper jet, southern areas will
miss a chance at some early Summer rain. Cooled highs about five
degrees through period while warming overnight lows. Winds Saturday
will be light as weak high pressure persists for one more day over
the Great Basin. The afternoon and evening westerlies will then kick
in, strength highly dependent on amount of cloud cover and heating
over the basin and range. Hohmann
&&
Aviation...
Isolated to scattered showers will affect areas mainly north of a
Susanville to Winnemucca line today. Otherwise it will be dry with a
general west to northwest flow aloft. Gusts this afternoon will be
in the 20-25kt range at area terminals. Hohmann
&&
Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
California...none.
&&
$$
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