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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
113 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PASS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1248 PM EDT SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH THE DAY AS A DRY CLIPPER FRONT 
ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE WEST TO LOW TO MID 70S IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 255 AM EDT SATURDAY...

CHILLY LATE OCTOBER MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST A GOOD BET IN THE 
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS A FEW PIEDMONT AREAS. HOWEVER...NO CHANGES TO 
THE FROST ADVISORY. TODAY WILL BE THE FINAL DAY FOR THE MOUNTAINS 
FOR FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AS THE GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY ENDS. 

SHOULD SEE A MILD DAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT TRACKING 
SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AT 
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AT TIMES BY MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD 
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THE 
BLUE RIDGE.

THE FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. 
MODELS SHOWING INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT AIRMASS IS 
VERY DRY ATTM. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE 
GREENBRIER MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. OTHER THAN THAT 
EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TO CLEAR/PC EAST. WINDS 
WILL STAY UP RESULTING IN MILDER LOWS...FROM THE MID 40S 
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

WILL START SUNDAY MORNING ON THE GUSTY SIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
INTO OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED DURING THE 
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING LATE 
MORNING...WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS... 
MORESO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AS THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS EAST...AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...BELIEVE THE COMBINATION 
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS...AND WARMING 
DOWNSLOPE WINDFLOW WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MILD...WITH 
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE 
MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE. 


THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... 
REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. WITH THE 
DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH...WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG THE 
APPALACHIAN CHAIN...BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS 
SUCH...EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE SIMILAR TO 
THOSE MORE TYPICAL OF SEPTEMBER. MOST LOCATIONS WILL WARM INTO THE 
70S ON MONDAY...AND EXPECT TO SEE LOW 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON 
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 50S. 

EXPECT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... 
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWER 
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS 
FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE FORECAST REGION 
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE KEPT MAINLY ALONG 
AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT COULD SLOW 
DOWN WHILE CROSSING THE CWA...BUT THE QPF IS NOT IMPRESSIVE... 
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 25/00Z ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST MODELS AREA SIMILAR IN THE TIMING 
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL 
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE OF 
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WAS KEPT SMALLER AND IN 
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE...AS CLOUD COVER AND 
SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT THE SPREAD BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. 

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF 
DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN 
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE GFS PORTRAYS A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A FLATTER 
TROUGH. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD BE MOST NOTABLE ALONG THE WESTERN 
SLOPES...HAVE BEEN MENTIONED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM EDT FRIDAY...

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP TO 10 KNOTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED OVERALL BUT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS LWB/BLF BETWEEN 03Z-13Z
SUN IS LIKELY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW. EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL SITES SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
30KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (ROA/BCB).

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

DRY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF THE NEXT
FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...

ON A SAFETY NOTE...RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL 
CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO DECREASE QUICKLY. AND SINCE IT HAS BEEN 
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE OUR LAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...FALLEN LEAVES AND 
BRUSH WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY OUT. AS SUCH...THE COMBINATION OF 
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS WILL MAKE OUTDOOR BURNING 
HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY...POTENTIALLY CAUSING FIRES TO BURN OUT OF 
CONTROL. BURNING IS THEREFORE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...NF/PW
AVIATION...RCS
FIRE WEATHER...NF

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