Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Diego California 
355 am PDT sun may 19 2013 


Synopsis... 
high pressure off the California coast will bring warming and drying 
through Monday with a shallower marine layer for Monday. Surface 
high pressure will bring locally gusty north winds near the coastal 
foothills Monday. For Tuesday through Thursday...another trough of 
low pressure will move inland along the West Coast bringing 
cooling...a deeper marine layer...and gusty west winds in the 
mountains and deserts. Slow warming for next weekend as the trough 
of low pressure weakens. 


&& 


Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange... 
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino 
counties... 


Through Monday...high pressure over the eastern Pacific west of 
California and Baja California will bring warming with surface high pressure 
over the Great Basin bringing locally gusty north to northeast winds 
near the coastal foothills Monday with strongest gusts to around 40 
miles per hour along the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. 


Satellite imagery shows areas of low clouds over the inner coastal 
waters extending inland across Orange County and the coast and 
valleys of San Diego County. Patchy stratus is expected for the 
inland Empire this morning. A somewhat shallower marine layer is 
expected for tonight and Monday...but still sufficient for stratus 
to reach the western valleys. For early this morning...onshore flow 
will bring locally gust winds to around 40 miles per hour in the northern 
Coachella Valley. 


For Tuesday through Thursday...another trough of low pressure will 
move inland along the West Coast bringing cooling...higher 
humidities...a deeper marine layer...and gusty west winds in the 
mountains and deserts. Slow warming for next weekend as the trough 
of low pressure weakens. 


&& 


Aviation... 
190930z...coast/valleys...patchy stratus...with bases 1400-2000 feet 
mean sea level and tops near 2700 feet mean sea level...will continue to develop along the 
coast and around 20 sm inland this morning. Visible at or below 1 sm will be 
possible where stratus meets higher terrain. Stratus will clear 
towards the coast around 17 UTC this morning...then redevelop along 
the coast between 04-09 UTC tonight with similar tops and bases. 


Mtns/deserts...unrestricted visible and sky clear through Monday morning. 


&& 


Marine... 
a long-period SW swell will arrive today and continue through 
midweek...creating elevated surf and strong rip currents along 
southerly facing beaches. Always swim near a lifeguard. 


&& 


Sgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...none. 
Pz...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...17 
aviation/marine...jjt