Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport la
317 PM CDT Friday may 24 2013
Discussion...
pretty quiet afternoon across the County Warning Area with just a few isolated
showers noted across our extreme southern and western zones.
Frontal boundary which showed so much Promise backdooring
completely through the region has since put on The Breaks and was
rather diffuse across our western and southern zones. Dewpoint
drop lags the front some 50 miles or so as does the temperatures
lag with 70s still noted across all of S Arkansas as of 19z. Still plan
on keeping slight chance probability of precipitation going through the night along and
southwest of a line from Mount Pleasant and Marshall Texas to the
Toledo Bend Reservoir. This is roughly where the front has pulled
up stationary and better moisture pooling along/in advance of the
boundary still exists.
Upper level trough caught underneath a strong upper ridge remains
in place across southern and central Texas through tonight and
comes our way for Saturday. Model quantitative precipitation forecast output suggests a little
better thunderstorm coverage across our region on Saturday but they
suggested this today across our southwest zones and the coverage
has just not been there. Have gone with slight chance probability of precipitation for Sat
across our western two thirds of the region as the frontal boundary
will back up before washing out as the upper level trough approaches
from the southwest. For Sunday...upper level trough becomes
elongated as it moves east of the region. Upper ridge flattens
out across the Southern Plains but there is enough moisture around
to keep slight chance probability of precipitation going for Sunday. Kept pop mention out
of the Memorial Day forecast but the pressure gradient really
strengthens as an upper level trough begins to carve its way out
into the Great Basin. Lake wind advisories may become necessary
for our western zones on Memorial Day for any outdoor recreational
interests. While the bulk of the dynamics in association with the
upper trough will be west of our region...it is close enough in
proximity to keep slight chance probability of precipitation going Wednesday through
Friday of next week.
Prelims to follow...13.
&&
Aviation...
extensive cumulus field is noted on visible satellite this afternoon
across East Texas and northwest la with low end VFR ceilings at these area terminals.
Elsewhere...cumulus is more sparse along with some high thin cirrus
moving in from the west. Back door cold front has made it about as
far into East Texas as it is going to get...isolated showers and thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon in vicinity of the front but will likely diminish
with heating later this evening. Surface winds will continue from the
east/NE between 5-10 kts this evening and then decrease into Saturday
morning. Expect a gradual shift to more east/southeast flow by Saturday
afternoon. Some spotty lower ceilings may redevelop as well as visibility
restrictions across the East Texas terminal locations from 25/09z through
25/15z...but any MVFR reductions are likely to be brief and
intermittent. /19/
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
shv 67 87 70 88 70 / 10 20 20 20 20
mlu 62 87 67 88 68 / 10 10 10 20 20
deq 61 85 67 86 68 / 10 20 20 20 20
txk 63 85 69 87 70 / 10 20 20 20 20
eld 60 85 66 87 67 / 10 10 10 20 20
tyr 70 87 71 88 71 / 20 20 20 20 20
ggg 69 87 70 88 70 / 20 20 20 20 20
lfk 71 88 71 89 70 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
Shv watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
La...none.
OK...none.
Texas...none.
&&
$$
13/19
