Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
543 am CST Sat Dec 21 2013
Widespread showers and storms, with MVFR to IFR ceilings...will
continue across west central Texas. However, as the main upper level
storm system sweeps east this morning, conditions should begin to
rapidly improve from west to east after sunrise. Most areas will see
VFR conditions by late morning and persist into the afternoon. As
ceilings improve, wind speeds will increase with a few wind gusts at
or above 25 knots during daylight hours. Models indicating that some
wraparound MVFR cigs are possible again late tonight at Abilene.
Previous discussion... /issued 404 am CST Sat Dec 21 2013/
(today and tonight)
Rain will end across west central Texas today.
Large area of rain and embedded thunderstorms covers much of west
central Texas this morning, ahead of an approaching upper level
storm system. This system is very near El Paso as of 10z, but will
track east and then northeast to near Lubbock by noon and into
central Oklahoma by this evening.
At the surface, the cold front that had dropped through much of the
area for Friday is retreating north as a warm front. Temperatures
have climbed overnight, with Abilene jumping 10 degrees in just the
last few hours.
West central Texas seeing the main lift ahead of this system now,
and this should largely shift east out of the area by mid to late
morning. Thus, drier conditions this afternoon. This system will
have a nice deformation zone setting up along and northwest of its
track, but given the forecasted track just off to the west, this
would miss west central Texas. Still, Worth keeping the slight
chance of light rain in for the afternoon along the I-20 corridor in
case anything can rotate its way back into the Big Country.
South of the warm front, and with some sun for the afternoon,
temperatures should be warmer again today. Did stay on the cool side
of guidance by a few degrees with very wet soils. As the upper level
storm system passes, another cold front will drop through the area
tonight and bring cooler conditions once again.
Sunday should be several degrees cooler than today with strong
cold air advection behind the cold front. Looking for highs Sunday
around 15 degrees cooler than today. Winds decreasing Sunday night
will lead to decent radiational cooling...with lows Monday morning
heading down into the mid 20s. Temperatures staying cool for the
remainder of the week. Will see increasing clouds starting on
Christmas day as the next shortwave trough dives southward across
Southern California and Arizona and treks slowly south into Baja
California. Not putting any measurable precipitation in the
forecast at this point...but will keep an eye on the possibility
for a few rain showers mainly across eastern counties.
Otherwise...dry forecast through the end of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 57 31 45 22 48 / 70 10 5 0 0
San Angelo 61 34 47 24 53 / 40 5 5 5 0
Junction 63 37 54 24 56 / 40 5 5 5 0