Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
407 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014
(today and tonight)
The upper level ridge will be centered overhead today and will
result in clear skies and very warm temperatures again today.
Some patchy fog may develop southwest of a San Angelo to Junction
line by sunrise, where winds have decoupled and temperatures
are already close to surface dewpoints. Fog will be short lived
however, and will burn off quickly after sunrise. Near record high
temperatures are expected today with afternoon highs topping out
in the middle and upper 80s, with a few readings around 90 degrees
across far northern counties. The record high today for both San
Angelo and Abilene is 91 degrees set back in 1950. Expect clear
skies and light winds again tonight, with overnight lows ranging
from the middle 50s south, to the lower 60s north.
(sunday through friday)
The main weather story for west central Texas is for breezy and warm
weather to continue Sunday through Monday across west central Texas
followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday. There is a slight
chance for rain south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to
Ozona Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Latest water vapor loop and surface observations at 0730z or 230 am
CDT show a cold front and associated shortwave trough approaching
the Pacific northwest. This frontal system will continue to track
east in the progressive zonal flow aloft over the next 48 hours.
The European model (ecmwf) and GFS models seem to handle the progression of these
features quite well. As the shortwave trough advances east, a
surface trough of low pressure should develop across the Lee of The
Rockies causing moisture from the Gulf and breezy south winds to
return across the area both Sunday and Monday.
The models show the front moving into the area by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, another weak shortwave trough at 500 mb is progged to move
across the frontal boundary Tuesday night and Wednesday and may
cause a few showers or thunderstorms to form as warm air advection
develops above the frontal boundary. There is still uncertainty
regarding the location of precipitation. Have continued 20 pops
mainly south of a line from Brownwood to San Angelo to Ozona for
Tuesday night into Wednesday. High temperatures should cool from
the 80s into the 70s by Tuesday and continue in the 70s through
Friday. Temperatures may be cooler on Wednesday in those areas
where it rains. Beyond Thursday, long term models show troughiness
across the east and west coasts with a ridge of high pressure in the
middle of the country. This means drier and seasonable temperatures
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 88 62 87 61 87 / 0 0 5 0 5
San Angelo 88 58 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 5
Junction 86 57 86 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 5