Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1122 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014
Northwest winds will continue to diminish this evening in the wake
of the cold front, becoming light from the northwest. As the
surface anticyclone moves across the area on Monday, winds will
become light and variable, eventually shifting out of the south
after 00z. Expect VFR conditions throughout the period with a
few passing mid/high clouds.
Previous discussion... /issued 533 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014/
winds have diminished below Wind Advisory criterion (30 mph
sustained) and will continue a general downward trend. Winds may
gust briefing in the wake of the cold front moving south across
the area but are expected to remain in the 15-25 mph range or
less. The Wind Advisory will expire at the top of the hour.
Much drier air resides over west central Texas this afternoon,
resulting in only a few mid-level clouds and no precipitation
across the area. A cold front is moving south across the cwa, and
is currently located along a Brownwood, to Robert Lee, to Big
Spring line. North winds behind this front may gust for an hour or
two, but the trend will be decreasing winds, especially after 06z
as high pressure builds into the region and winds back to the
northwest. Light west-northwest winds are anticipated Monday
morning, shifting southwest at less than 10 mph during the
afternoon hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the taf
Previous discussion... /issued 348 PM CST sun Nov 23 2014/
(tonight and monday)
Cold front with strong gusty northwest winds behind it was just
moving into the northern Big Country mid-afternoon. Temperatures
behind the front were in 60s, with 50s in Lubbock and Childress.
Amarillo had fallen to 37 f with light rain. With the front moving
through, boundary level winds will not decouple quickly, and
winds will continue to be breezy for a couple hours after sunset.
Speeds, however, will fall below Wind Advisory criteria by 6 PM,
so the advisory will not be extended. Areas along and north of
I-20 may also see a few bands of mid level clouds move across
through midnight. GFS MOS guidance temperatures look good tonight.
Most areas will see lows in the mid 30s, but a few low lying areas
may temperatures fall to freezing, in the valley areas in the
Northwest Hill country and areas along the I-10 corridor. It will
be sunny and cooler Monday as surface high pressure builds in.
Temperatures will approach 60 degree with downslope westerly
compressional winds up to 10 mph.
(monday night through next sunday)
A short wave trough will move across the area on Tuesday and will
send another dry cold front across west central Texas during the
day. It will be chilly again Monday night with lows again in the
30s. Temperatures behind the front on Tuesday will remain below
normal with highs in the mid and upper 50s.
Wednesday will start a decent warming trend through Thanksgiving
day and beyond as the upper level flow becomes more zonal with
time and south to southwest winds return to the area. Thanksgiving
day looks very nice with light winds, mainly clear skies and
highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Expect similar
temperatures again on Friday. Models begin to disagree by next
weekend, with the GFS wanting to bring another front into the area
next Saturday, while the European model (ecmwf) maintains southerly flow. Will keep
the forecast on the dry and warm side for now, with highs in the
60s continuing through the weekend. Overnight lows will be mainly
in the 40s beyond Wednesday.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 35 59 34 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 34 60 33 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 33 61 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 0