Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
436 am CDT Wednesday Aug 5 2015
Short term (today and tonight)...
Look for dry conditions and unusually warm temperatures for the next
24 hours. Models indicate the upper high will move slowly back
eastward today. This shift will further reduce the potential for
showers and thunderstorms. Plus, the thermal ridge at 850 mb will
again expand east into our area this afternoon and help produce high
temperatures mainly in the 100 to 103 range. Overnight tonight, lows
mainly in the mid to upper 70s look likely.
Long term (thursday through tuesday)...
Hot and dry conditions are expected to prevail for our area
through the weekend and at least the first half of next week.
Have low confidence in a minimal rain chance next Tuesday.
The upper level high will shift east across North Texas through
the end of this week and strengthen over the weekend. With
intensifying 850mb thermal ridge, high temperatures will be
in the 100-105 degree range across our area. Ovenight lows
will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s.
The new criteria for heat advisory this year is an ambient high
temperature of 103 degrees and/or heat index value of 105 degrees
or higher...for two consecutive days with no overnight low
temperature requirement. With this in mind, looks like the
northern part of our area (north of a Roby to Albany line) and
much of the Concho Valley could reach heat advisory criteria with
ambient high temperatures Thursday through Sunday. Will discuss
this with the next shift and if subsequent model information
supports these high temperatures, a heat advisory may be needed.
Early next week, the 00z GFS has the center of the upper high
shifting northwest across the Texas Panhandle and into
northeastern New Mexico, while the European model (ecmwf) is slower with the
progression and keeps the high centered over the Red River valley.
The GFS brings the trailing portion of a cold front south into our
northern counties on Tuesday, with marginal moisture and a low
possibility of convective development. Have low confidence in the
GFS solution at this time, and leaning toward persistence with the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 100 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 103 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
Junction 101 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0