Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
618 am CDT Friday may 24 2013
Discussion...
see 12z aviation discussion below.
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Aviation...
mainly VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the
terminals. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening
across west central Texas. Have a thunderstorms in the vicinity going at the terminals
after 20z. Winds will be generally southeast with gusts to 25 knots
this afternoon.
21
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Previous discussion... /issued 448 am CDT Friday may 24 2013/
Short term...
currently watching an mesoscale convective system on infrared satellite and radar across much of
west central Texas. The south part of the mesoscale convective system still has a line of
strong thunderstorms from just north of del Rio to Junction. There has
been a weakening trend for the thunderstorms around Junction the past
hour. Will probably see most of the activity dissipate by 8 am.
Also...very heavy rainfall across parts of west central Texas the
past 24 hours. The lcra gages have received around 5 inches across
Kimble...Menard and Concho counties during the past 6 hours.
Still a chance of thunderstorms across west central Texas today and
tonight. Will probably see an mesoscale convective vortex across the southeast part of the
County warning forecast area...combining with good instability this afternoon will lead to
more thunderstorms. Also...upslope flow and another axis of instability
across western Texas will be another area for thunderstorms to develop
this afternoon. Some of these storms will move east into the
western part of the County warning forecast area late this afternoon and this evening.
Severe weather threat looks low today partially due to weak 0-6km
shear...however a pulse severe storm or two are possible. The main
hazard will be locally heavy rainfall.
Long term...
Saturday and Sunday...as a weak upper level ridge builds across west
central Texas this weekend...will only go slight chance probability of precipitation for Saturday
and Saturday night. For Sunday...will go with a warm and dry
forecast as most of the convection will stay well west of our
area. Highs will be in the 80s to lower 90s.
Monday through Friday...looks warm and dry through the early to
middle part of next week due to upper level ridge over the area.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Medium range models have
some uncertainty with the next upper level trough over the western
Continental U.S. By late next week. The European model (ecmwf) is slower with a split flow
pattern/upper low over The Four Corners/and the GFS indicates no
split flow with the trough. Also...the European model (ecmwf) is much wetter over
west central Texas than the GFS. The bottom line...upper level
southwest flow over the Southern Plains and a dryline across
western Texas/west of our County warning forecast area/will be the main players. Will
introduce slight chance probability of precipitation for thunderstorms on Thursday.
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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 87 68 85 68 90 / 40 30 20 20 10
San Angelo 87 68 87 68 90 / 40 40 20 20 10
Junction 87 69 86 68 89 / 60 30 20 10 5
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Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
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