Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
557 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015
The primary aviation hazard is icing, with mixed winter
precipitation. Ice could accumulate on Airport runways and
Mixed winter precipitation will overspread west central Texas
this evening and tonight, and then exit southeastern parts of
the area by daybreak Thursday. Cannot rule out the possibility
of brief thunderstorms with the precipitation this evening
and early tonight, and will amend for this as needed. Between
6 PM and 9 PM, the precipitation type will be freezing rain and
sleet across central and northern parts of the area, and rain mixed
with sleet farther south. After 9 PM, a mix of sleet and snow is
expected across the area along/north of Interstate 20 (including
kabi), with freezing rain and sleet farther south at ksjt and
kbbd. Rain will transition to freezing rain at ksoa and kjct.
Later tonight (after midnight), the precipitation may change to
snow before ending across the northern half of the area including
kabi, with a sleet/snow mix at ksjt. A mix of sleet and freezing
rain is possible at our southern terminals before the precipitation
IFR conditions are expected with the ceilings, while visibilities
will fluctuate with the precipitation. Gusty north-northeast winds
will continue through the night, with gusts to or just above 30kt
The storm system will quickly exit the area by Thursday morning.
Expect clearing skies and a return to VFR conditions, with
diminishing north to northeast winds.
Previous discussion... /issued 345 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015/
.Winter precipitation tonight...
Another round of winter precipitation will dominate tonight's
weather across west central Texas. A cold front, with gusty surface
winds from the north, will continue to push south across west
central Texas this evening. Temperatures along and north of our
Interstate 20 corridor have fallen below the freezing mark.
Temperatures farther south will follow early this evening. Model
forecast soundings indicate freezing rain or sleet will be the
dominant precipitation types. However, with the potential for
some convection, and colder temperatures than models may be
indicating...light snow will likely join the mix mainly after midnight.
Total snow accumulations may be around 1 to 2 inches in some locations,
before this system moves east tomorrow. Our main concern for
tonight and tomorrow is icy roads, bridges, and overpasses.
Although we expect weather to end by 12z tomorrow morning,
temperatures will likely not warm above freezing until tomorrow
afternoon. Even then, afternoon highs for most areas tomorrow will
only be in the 32 to 35 range. Ice on many surfaces will continue to be a
hazard through most of the day tomorrow.
Expect a really cold night Thursday night with clearing skies and
ice on the ground. Will see morning lows by Friday in the teens
and lower twenties. Any water on roads will freeze overnight
causing slick spots again Friday morning. Finally...we begin to
see a warmup for Friday afternoon into the weekend. Temperatures
should remain above freezing Saturday through the rest of the
seven days. May see a few rain showers Saturday evening through
early Sunday across the southeast as another weak shortwave trough
moves through. Drier air over much of the area will limit
precipitation to just the southeastern counties. Highs should warm
to the 60s and 70s for early next week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 21 33 20 43 27 / 90 5 5 5 5
San Angelo 24 36 22 46 30 / 90 5 5 5 5
Junction 27 35 22 46 30 / 100 10 5 5 10
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am CST Thursday for the
following zones: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am CST
Thursday for the following zones: Crockett...Kimble...Mason...