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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
515 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015

/00z tafs/

A thick cirrus canopy will gradually shift to the south
and east tonight as the upper-level trough axis swings across the
area. Winds will remain light from a general southerly direction
this evening, but winds are forecast to turn around from the north
late tonight and Wednesday as a weak surface boundary cross the
County Warning Area. Expect winds under 5 kts overnight, and increasing to 6-8 kts
after 16z. Patchy fog is expected to develop after 06z. The
greatest threat for fog will be mainly north of ksjt and kbbd,
namely affecting the kabi terminal. Visibilities could drop below
1sm at times, but for now prevailing 3sm was included in the taf.


Previous discussion... /issued 342 PM CST Tuesday Dec 1 2015/

Short term...
(tonight and wednesday)

A strong subtropical jet extending from Texas to the Tennessee
Valley was producing abundant high clouds across west central
Texas this afternoon. Otherwise, looks like quiet weather for
the next 24 hours. For tonight, good radiational cooling and light
winds will result in lows in the 30s. Highs on Wednesday will be
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


Long term...
(wednesday night through next tuesday)

A fairly quiet pattern for this time of year is indicated late
this week into the beginning of next week. Our area will have
generally clear skies Wednesday night through Friday, with a drier
airmass in place. A light wind regime will prevail into early
Friday. This will facilitate a couple of colder nights Wednesday
night and Thursday night. Expect lows to be around the freezing
mark across a good portion of our area, with upper 20s in some of
the low-lying areas and river valleys. The dry airmass will also
support a larger diurnal range in temperatures, with highs
Thursday expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Aloft, a shortwave ridge will shift east into our area late
Thursday into Friday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) models have trended
drier for our area during the latter half of next weekend. The
upper trough is progged to move east across The Rockies on
Saturday, and across the plains Saturday night. A closed low is
progged to develop in the southern portion of this trough over
eastern Kansas or western Missouri on Sunday. With the track of
this system farther north and the moisture return limited, have
trimmed the pops for Saturday night and Sunday. The cold front
associated with this system should push southeast across our area
Saturday night, with highs on Sunday several degrees cooler.

This looks to be a quick shot of cooler air, with indications of a
shortwave ridge shifting east into Texas behind the departing
trough and south-southwest surface winds developing across our
area on Monday.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 34 58 33 60 / 5 0 0 0
San Angelo 35 61 31 61 / 10 0 0 0
Junction 38 62 30 63 / 10 5 5 0


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...




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