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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1257 PM CDT Monday Oct 20 2014

/18z tafs/

Although VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the taf sites
through the next 24 hours, will monitor the possibility for
patchy light fog and MVFR visibilities early Tuesday morning at
kbbd and kjct. A few showers/isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and tonight across the far western part of our area
(west of a Sweetwater to Ozona line). On Tuesday, a few showers/
storms will be possible across roughly the same area. With this
in mind, not carrying a mention at ksoa and ksjt, but will monitor
radar and satellite trends with the approaching disturbance aloft.
Variable cloud cover is expected, with a VFR cumulus field
developing this afternoon, and some increase in high and middle cloud
coverage from the southwest late tonight into Tuesday. Winds are
expected to remain under 10kt this afternoon through Tuesday morning.
The predominant direction will be from the southeast.



Previous discussion... /issued 559 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/

/12z tafs/

Patchy stratus is beginning to develop across the Interstate 10
corridor. The stratus is forecast to continue to increase in
coverage and result in MVFR ceilings at ksoa, kjct, and kbbd. More
uncertainty remains at kabi and ksjt, so VFR ceilings were continued
at this time. VFR conditions should return to all taf sites by late
morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly at ksjt and ksoa, but coverage should remain
minimal so no mention of thunder was included in the taf package.
Winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 knots today.

Previous discussion... /issued 354 am CDT Monday Oct 20 2014/

Short term...
(today and tonight)

An upper level low is currently located across the northern Mexican
state of Sonora. The upper level low is forecast to move east and
eventually open up as it approaches far West Texas. Much like what
we say yesterday, upper level disturbances will move across West
Texas as the upper level low/trough approaches. This will combine
with increased surface moisture to result in showers and
thunderstorms across West Texas. Although the best rain chances will
remain to our west, isolated to scattered showers will be possible
across our forecast area, mainly west of a Sweetwater, to San
Angelo, to Sonora line. Rain chances will linger into this evening,
with the best chance across Crockett County. Highs today will be
slightly above seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower
80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.


Long term...
(tuesday through monday)

GFS and the European model (ecmwf) have come into agreement with the movement of
the upper level low across the Southern Plains mid week. Models
now agree on a more sheared out, weaker, system than the European model (ecmwf) has
been forecasting for several days. Still looks like a chance of
showers and storms, but have trimmed pops back across the
southern counties south of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Dewpoints
only climbing into the low to mid 50s combined with a weaker
system just not a good combination for widespread rainfall across
the area.

Rest of the extended forecast looks dry, as an upper level ridge
follows the passage of the low and persists through the weekend.
No major storm systems on the horizon and no cold air intrusions,
so fairly benign weather on the way.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 81 57 80 56 79 / 10 5 5 10 10
San Angelo 81 57 79 57 79 / 20 10 10 10 10
Junction 81 57 80 57 80 / 10 5 10 10 10


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...


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