Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1243 PM CDT sun Apr 19 2015
Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours. Surface
winds from the north today will gradually shift overnight. By mid
morning tomorrow, expect surface winds mainly from the east.
Previous discussion... /issued 553 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015/
Stratus with IFR/MVFR ceiling south of a San Angelo to Brady line
at 11z will dissipate mid morning, as dry northwest winds of 10-15
kts develop behind a Pacific cold front. VFR otherwise today and
Previous discussion... /issued 412 am CDT sun Apr 19 2015/
(today and tonight)
Cold front will be moving in mid to late morning. However, cold
advection is lacking behind it, and with full sun and downslope
northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, temperatures should rise a degree
or two from Saturday. The front will sweep moisture southeast of the
region, however, allowing good radiational cooling conditions
tonight and bringing lows in the mid and upper 40s.
expect a continued stormy and unsettled weather pattern through
the upcoming week as the very active upper level subtropical jet
stream continues to flow across west central Texas. Meanwhile, the
polar jet stream is progged to flow southeast across the central
and eastern U.S., Allowing Canadian airmasses to move south
towards Texas later in the week. Embedded disturbances will
interact with the dryline and/or frontal boundaries and returning
Gulf moisture to trigger some storms during the upcoming week.
A cool surface high pressure system will result in below normal high
temperatures on Monday and possibly into Tuesday with warming
temperatures into Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. As the surface high
shifts east Monday night, this will allow a return of Gulf
moisture. By Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, the dryline could
set up across the region as the upper flow becomes southwesterly.
Any disturbances caught in the upper level jet could trigger
isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms along the
dryline both days and a few of these could become severe given the
moderate instability and relatively high 0-6km shear. For this
reason, low chance pops continue across the area.
A cold front could try to backdoor into west central Texas on Thursday
and Friday at the same time another shortwave arrives, bringing
another chance for thunderstorms across the eastern half of the
area. Since confidence is low, pops are relatively low at this
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 47 70 50 76 59 / 5 5 5 20 20
San Angelo 47 73 52 77 61 / 5 5 10 20 20
Junction 48 74 53 76 62 / 5 5 20 20 20