Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
623 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015
VFR ceilings and light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours. An upper level storm system will begin
moving into the area later today accompanied by increasing clouds
and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This upper level
system will not affect the terminals during this taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 443 am CDT Wednesday Oct 7 2015/
(today and tonight)
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level low over
southern Arizona this morning will continue to develop over West
Texas today and slowly expand eastward in coverage through tonight.
There is a slight chance this afternoon of showers and thunderstorms
moving into extreme western Crockett country, and by tonight
expanding into western portions of the Concho Valley. Highs this
afternoon will be in the upper 80s over all of west central Texas
and morning lows tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies will be in the
lower 60s. Generally southeasterly winds will remain light.
(thursday through tuesday)
.Cooler temperatures and an increasing chance for rain by late
Early this morning, a closed upper level low is located over
central Arizona. The medium range models are in good agreement
with the track of this system as it drops southeast into northern
Mexico by Thursday, then retrogrades it back to the southwest
over the weekend. Convection is expected to develop across far
southwest counties Wednesday night and spread across the area
Thursday, with periods of showers and thunderstorms continuing
into Friday. The GFS continues to be drier than the European model (ecmwf)
concerning rainfall amounts during this time frame. While the GFS
appears too dry, the European model (ecmwf) seems too wet and the current quantitative precipitation forecast
forecast is a compromise between the two. Overall, little change
was made concerning rainfall amounts, with a tight precipitation
gradient expected from northeast to southwest across the County Warning Area.
Still expecting anywhere from 1 to 3 inches south and west of a
Sweetwater to Junction line, with 1 inch or less elsewhere.
Precipitation will diminish across the area Friday night and early
Saturday, as the upper low begins its move back to the southwest.
The rest of the weekend into early next week will be dry with
above normal temperatures returning as a mid level ridge builds
back over the area. Expect daytime highs back into the upper 80s
and lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the 60s.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 88 63 86 64 / 0 10 40 50
San Angelo 90 64 78 64 / 5 10 70 70
Junction 90 65 81 65 / 0 10 50 50