Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
1118 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014
Light winds and VFR conditions will continue at all taf sites
through the next 24 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 503 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
VFR conditions with light winds will prevail at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 351 PM CST Wednesday Nov 26 2014/
(tonight and thursday)
Dry and pleasant weather will continue through Thanksgiving day.
West central Texas will remain in dry northwest flow aloft the next
24 hours. A surface ridge will remain over the area tonight and will
move off to the east by Thursday afternoon. Skies will be clear
tonight with light winds. Most areas will see overnight lows in the
lower 30s but a few upper 20s will be possible in some of the low
lying areas and river valleys. MOS guidance looks too cool for temps
for tomorrow and have gone a few degrees higher, with highs in the
lower 60s. It will be sunny with light southeast winds.
(thursday night through next wednesday)
A warming trend will begin Friday and continue through the
Holiday weekend for our area, with dry conditions. Friday into
Saturday a broad, low amplitude ridge aloft will shift east across
Texas from the southwestern states. With south to southwest
low-level flow and 850mb thermal ridge building into our area,
temperatures will be well above normal over the weekend. Given the
forecast pattern, going with highs above MOS guidance Friday, and
have trended highs a little warmer for Saturday and Sunday.
Overnight lows will be warmer as well, with increased surface
pressure gradient and south-southwest winds.
An upper shortwave trough moving east across the northern Continental U.S.
Will send a cold front south into west central Texas Sunday night.
The European model (ecmwf) is stronger with this front than the GFS. This will be
a dry frontal passage for our area. At this time, going with highs
roughly 15-25 degrees cooler for Monday, with the largest temperature
change in our northern counties.
Have greater uncertainty with the forecast for the middle of next
week. The 12z models are slower to bring an upper trough into the
western states, and are not as far south with the system. The GFS
ensemble shows increased spread in the 500mb pattern during that
time. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) also differ with the surface pressure
pattern, with the European model (ecmwf) bringing another cold front south across our
area on Wednesday. Given the uncertainty, keeping pops below 15
percent at this time. Carrying increased cloud cover for Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with increased low-level moisture progged by
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 31 61 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 32 63 40 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 29 63 37 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0