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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Angelo Texas
630 PM CDT sun Sep 14 2014

/00z tafs/

Although ceilings have lifted this afternoon...expecting MVFR
conditions to return late this evening from south to north. Also
seeing scattered showers on radar which may briefly affect ksjt
and kbbd with slight reduced visibility and brief low clouds
between 0z and 6z. Winds will remain light and variable at less
than 10 kts.


Previous discussion... /issued 400 PM CDT sun Sep 14 2014/

Short term...
(tonight and monday)
monsoonal moisture will continue to stream north across West Texas
from Mexico into Monday. Western and northern sections of the
County Warning Area...Crockett County, western Concho Valley and
the Big Country...may see a few showers. One or two thunderstorms
are also possible Monday afternoon, mainly in the Big Country, as
GFS sb convective available potential energy increase to 200 to 600 j/kg. With continued moisture
advection (surface dew points this afternoon were in the lower 60s.
GFS MOS low temperatures in the mid 60s look good tonight. Breaks
in the clouds Monday should allow highs to rise into the mid and
upper 80s.

Long term...
(monday night through next sunday)

Model differences continue regarding the next cold front to affect
the area. The GFS keeps the front north of the area, while the NAM
and European model (ecmwf) bring the front south to around the I-20 corridor by
early Tuesday morning. Will continue to favor the more southern
solution for this forecast cycle, bringing the front into the
northern Big Country by daybreak Tuesday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the
front Monday night, mainly across northern sections. Kept chance
pops going areawide on Tuesday due to the stalled front across
the north and potential for renewed convection along any outflow
boundaries. Kept a slight chance of precipitation going Tuesday
night and Wednesday as models show several upper level disturbances
moving across the area.

Models show upper level ridging over the plains by the end of the
week and the first part of next weekend. This should the area dry,
along with slightly warmer temperatures into Thursday though


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Abilene 65 86 69 84 68 / 10 20 30 40 20
San Angelo 65 88 69 85 68 / 20 20 20 40 20
Junction 67 88 69 87 68 / 10 10 20 30 20


Sjt watches/warnings/advisories...



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