Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
929 am MDT Friday Oct 24 2014
Synopsis...a warm dry southwest flow over the area today will
become stronger on Saturday. A strong cold front will cross Utah
Discussion...high pressure is building over the intermountain
west today...with sunny skies over Utah and southwest Wyoming...as
the large band of middle and high level clouds has pushed north of
the area overnight. Increasing southwesterly winds and warm
advection aloft will lead to yet another warmer than average
day...with breezy conditions in many locations.
Southerly winds will increase even more tomorrow as a Pacific
trough marches toward the region. Will take a close look at winds
today to determine if a Wind Advisory is warranted for
Saturday...especially in the western valleys of Utah.
The cold front for Sunday still looks on track...though the upper
level support has been trending northward over the past 24-48
hours. Current model runs indicate that the northern third of the
County Warning Area could get a little precipitation associated with the cold
frontal passage...but models no longer indicate lingering showers
Sunday night and Monday...as the best moisture and instability
stays north of the Utah/Idaho border. A significant change in
temperature is still in the cards...but many locations will likely
see a continuation of the dry October.
The forecast for today looks fine and no updates are planned for
Aviation...the only uncertainty weather-wise at the slc terminal
is the surface wind forecast. The most likely scenario is for
winds to switch to the northwest between 19z and 21z...but this
switch would likely occur after 21z if southerly winds increase
and become gusty in the late morning hours.
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