Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
349 am MDT Thursday Oct 2 2014
Synopsis...strong high pressure will stay centered over the West
Coast states maintaining a dry and slowly warming northwest flow
across the region through at least early next week.
Discussion...northwesterly flow aloft prevails across the region
early this morning in the wake of a departing shortwave trough
currently moving into the Central High plains. Surface high
pressure is currently centered across northern/central Utah...with a
northeasterly gradient resulting in locally windy conditions
through the gaps of southwest Utah. Temperatures have fallen into
the middle 30s within most of the hard freeze warning area...and with
a few hours to go would think upper 20s is still attainable
although surface dew points currently remain near 30 after all the
recent rainfall. Have left the warning in place...although many
locations may not reach 28f.
Northwest flow aloft will prevail through the weekend and into
early next week maintaining a dry forecast with only occasional
passing high clouds. As the airmass modifies and heights aloft
rise a gradual warming trend will ensue during this time. The
medium range models to suggest the middle level ridge along the West
Coast will break down during the middle portion of next week
allowing a couple of weak shortwave troughs to migrate through the
region. Moisture will be limited and thus have left the forecast
dry for the time being.
Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail at kslc through the period
with southerly winds switching to the northwest between 18 and
Fire weather...high pressure at the surface will bring mainly
diurnal winds to the district through next week. Temperatures will
average below normal levels today...gradually warming to near
normal this weekend. There is little chance of any precipitation
through the next seven days.
Utah...freeze warning until 9 am MDT this morning for utz011-014-016.
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