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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
958 am MST Thursday Nov 27 2014

Synopsis...warm dry high pressure will persist across the Great
Basin into Saturday. A cold front is expected to drop into
northern Utah Saturday night into Sunday...with another system
possible by the middle of next week.


Discussion...a broad middle level ridge encompasses much of the
Great Basin/intermountain west this morning...maintaining a very
mild airmass across the forecast area. Extensive cirrus spilling
overtop of the ridge axis continues to stream into northern and
central Utah. This cloud cover will likely limit warming just a bit
today...however still expect temperatures in the lower elevations
to run close to wednesdays observed highs...with a bit of warming
across the higher terrain given an increase in 700mb temperatures. If
breaks in the cirrus develop could see a spike in valley temperatures as

The 12z GFS maintains strong run to run consistency with its
predecessors over the past couple of days in its handling of the
cold front over the well as the shortwave trough for
the middle of next week. This would suggest a weaker surface front
Saturday night into Sunday with precipitation likely remaining confined
largely to areas north of I-80...followed by a mild southerly
flow Monday...and a moist trough with a subtropical tap for
Tuesday/Wednesday. The 00z European model (ecmwf) backed way off on this latter
system while offering up a much stronger and colder front for
Sunday. Will hold off on any adjustments to the forecast until
the 12z ec arrives...however the run to run consistency of the
GFS bolsters confidence in that solution.


Aviation...operational weather concerns are expected to be minimal
at the kslc terminal through the valid taf period. Southerly surface
winds are expected to prevail...though a period of light and
variable winds or very light northerly winds are possible in the 19z-
00z window. If any northerly surface winds do occur they are
expected to remain below 6 knots.


Slc watches/warnings/advisories...



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