Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City Utah
1004 am MDT Wednesday Jun 19 2013
Synopsis...a dry cold front will push southeast across northern
and central Utah today...while southern Utah will remain warm and
windy ahead of the front. Cool temperatures across the north
through the balance of the week will turn warmer again over the
weekend.
&&
Discussion...the cold core upper trough parked across the Pacific
northwest and northern rockies will move little through the end of
the week. A series of vorticity lobes rotating through this upper
trough will move across the northern half of Utah through Saturday.
The first vorticity lobe currently over central Idaho through
extreme northwest Utah will send a mostly dry cold front across
northern and central Utah today. West-northwest winds across
northern through west-central Utah at time will increase as the
supporting near 700mb cold advection strengthens through early
this afternoon. Limited moisture and the lack of dynamic/thermal
support for deep lift will limit any real for convective precipitation to
the northwest corner of the state this afternoon. Subsequent
vorticity lobes rotating through the mean trough position should
have similar impacts in terms of maintaining cool temperatures and
minimal convective precipitation north...and warm/windy conditions for
the south through at least Saturday.
A gradual shift to the east of the upper trough will bring a
little better threat for precipitation to northern Utah late in the
weekend. Cooler temperatures will also work into southern Utah...though
convective precipitation will still struggle to develop as middle-level
temperatures will remain fairly warm. One last shot of cool air is
advertised in the medium range guidance early next week...followed
by strong ridging across the interior west by the middle of the
week.
&&
Aviation...the slc terminal will see VFR conditions throughout
the day with some scattered clouds based near 12 kft. West-
northwest winds will become gusty after 16z and remain so until
00-02z this evening.
&&
Fire weather...a dry cold front currently draped across zone 478
will begin surging south late this morning...stalling across central
portions of the district late day. Gusty south winds and very dry
conditions will remain in place across the southern and eastern
portions ahead of this front today through tomorrow...whereas the
gusty Post frontal northwesterly winds will peak this
afternoon/evening across all of zone 478 and the northern portion
of zone 492 before tapering overnight through tomorrow. Will retain
rfw through today all zones with critical fuels and
central/southern/eastern portions through tomorrow evening as
southerly winds and dry conditions will remain south of the front.
Borderline call for Friday across the south regarding critical fire
weather conditions. Expecting localized southwesterly winds to hit
critical levels within continued Bone dry conditions. High pressure
moving overhead Saturday will bring more stable conditions/lighter
winds...but the approach of another cold front looks to bring
critical conditions to most areas again Sunday afternoon/evening.
&&
Slc watches/warnings/advisories...
Utah...red flag warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday below 7000 feet for
utz488-489-493-494.
Red flag warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday below 9000 feet for
utz496.
Red flag warning until 10 PM MDT this evening below 6500 feet
for utz478-492.
Red flag warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday below 6000 feet for
utz495.
Red flag warning until 10 PM MDT Thursday for utz497-498.
Wyoming...none.
&&
$$
Public...Conger
fire weather...Merrill
aviation...verzella
For more information from National oceanic and atmospheric administration/S National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity (all lower case)
For frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
visit...
http://weather.Gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.Php (all lower case)
