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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
958 am EST sun Dec 21 2014

showers are continuing to move through Nature Coast and adjacent
Gulf waters along a stationary boundary associated with low
pressure positioned in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 12z soundings
from ktbw and neighboring sites show that the lower levels have
moistened significantly over the last 24 hours and that middle level
temperatures have cooled off a couple degrees. Through the rest of
today and tonight...rain showers should increase in intensity and
spread south to at least around the Interstate 4 corridor. A few
ticks of lightning have popped up over the Gulf this morning...and
with morning soundings showing steeper middle level lapse
rates...would not be surprised to see isolated storms starting to
develop over land this afternoon north of Tampa Bay.

Other than adding in isolated storms this afternoon...forecast
looks on track through tonight. The point and click forecast has
been updated...and zone forecasts will be updated shortly.


VFR conditions this morning will slowly degrade as showers move
south towards the Tampa Bay area taf sites this afternoon and
evening. By early Monday morning...MVFR ceilings will be likely
as far south as kpgd. Additionally...brief periods of patchy fog
will be possible around sunrise Monday morning...mostly near klal
and kpgd.


a stationary frontal boundary is located across the northern
waters...just to the south of Cedar Key this morning. Winds are east
to southeast south of this boundary and from the northeast on its
northern side. Areas of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage over the marine area to the north
and west of Tampa Bay today with the activity pushing south later
tonight. The warm front is expected to lift north of the forecast
waters for Monday with southerly flow holding in place until a cold
front crosses the region sometime on Wednesday with winds near Small Craft Advisory
levels behind the front.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 77 66 76 66 / 40 70 50 20
fmy 80 65 78 66 / 20 20 10 20
gif 79 64 77 64 / 40 60 50 20
srq 77 65 76 65 / 30 50 40 20
bkv 77 64 77 64 / 50 80 70 30
spg 75 65 74 66 / 40 70 50 20


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.



Update/aviation/fire weather...18/Fleming
decision support...69/close

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