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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
1023 am EDT Wednesday may 27 2015

Update...intermediate model runs this morning still depict an
upper level short wave meandering off the West Coast of Florida.
Middle level vorticity maximum that is supported by the upper level short wave
is expected to push towards The Big Bend - Nature Coast region
today which would help to generate some better thunderstorm
coverage... with an isolated strong storm possible this afternoon.
For the morning update... nudged up probability of precipitation slightly for the Nature
Coast given better upper level support. Otherwise...forecast is on
track today. 12z tbw sounding came in drier than the previous days
with a decent low and middle level inversion which will support
decreased rain chances across the majority of the area.



&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 90 72 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
fmy 92 70 90 69 / 10 0 0 10
gif 91 70 89 68 / 0 0 10 0
srq 90 71 89 69 / 20 20 10 10
bkv 91 67 89 65 / 20 10 10 0
spg 90 74 88 73 / 20 10 10 10

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.
&&

$$

Update...20/Barron
decision support...02/Garcia

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