Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
919 PM EDT Monday Jul 28 2014
Discussion (rest of tonight)...
a cold frontal boundary stretched from the Carolinas westward through
Gulf coastal states to the lower Mississippi Valley while Atlantic
high pressure ridged through the Florida Straits...between the Keys and
Cuba...into the Gulf. The boundary settles southward over
night...reaching northern Florida by daybreak...with a rather robust and
increasingly moist southwest and westerly flow across our area. This
flow is strong enough to support a moderate risk of rip currents at
area beaches from Pinellas to Lee and higher winds and seas on some
of the coastal waters...covered more thoroughly in the marine
section. The very limited afternoon convection is now just about
gone however the approaching boundary and additional moisture will
re-generate some isolated to scattered late evening showers/storms in
the northeast Gulf and Nature Coast that spread south over the Gulf
and coastal locations through sunrise. Forecasts generally on track
but have make some minor timing/coverage adjustments for the
remaining evening hours.
until 30/00z...have opted to maintain VFR with increasing clouds.
Isolated Gulf rain showers begin to impact terminals after 06z-09z...with thunderstorms in the vicinity
after 12z-14z. Brief MVFR/local IFR possible mainly after 12z. Prevailing
westerly winds with gusts across the south in the afternoon.
high pressure has shifted over South Florida as a frontal
boundary moves through southern Georgia. As the front continues
moving south...this will cause a tighter pressure gradient and
will increase the winds and build the seas to a moderate chop
across the coastal waters. Small craft should exercise caution
when operating off shore. These conditions will continue through
Wednesday when the front moves south of the area. The only other
hazards will be higher winds and seas in the vicinity of isolated
to scattered thunderstorms.
Florida...rip current risk through Tuesday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal