Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
310 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015
Short term (today-monday)...
pre-frontal trough settling across north central Florida with
plume of deep tropical moisture streaming across the Gulf of
Mexico and much of the Florida Peninsula. Atmosphere over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico along the pre-frontal trough will likely
destabilize early this morning with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough...and
spreading locally onshore the Nature Coast through the morning
hours in westerly flow aloft.
Gradient will tighten over the forecast area today and will
create gusty west to southwest winds off the relatively warm
waters of the Gulf of Mexico with warm humid conditions this
afternoon. Shower/thunderstorm activity will gradually decrease
and push east of the forecast area today...however the convergent
boundary will stall across the central Florida Peninsula. An u/l
disturbance will ride over the stalled boundary on Monday with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico spreading across west central
Florida...with highest probability of precipitation across the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay
area. Given deep tropical plume of moisture over the
region...locally heavy rain is possible with the stronger
Upstream...a strong cut-off u/l low will be in the gradual process
of opening up as it pushes across the Southern Plains on Monday.
Strong u/l diffluence on the southeast side of this system will
become superimposed over a boundary that extends across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and the central Florida Peninsula with a
complex area of low pressure developing over the northwest Gulf of
Long term (monday night-sunday)...
middle level zonal flow allows a frontal boundary to sit over northern
Florida early in the week. A 500 mb trough moves across the central
United States on Tuesday...allowing the frontal system to move
across much of the peninsula of Florida on Wednesday. The frontal
boundary settles over southern Florida on Thursday. The slow-moving
nature of the boundary and readily available moisture could create
some heavy rainfall concerns during the week.
The front will meander through Friday...when the next middle level
trough helps clear the boundary past The Straits of Florida. Drier
air behind the front will produce slightly cooler days. Global
guidance is not too dissimilar at the start of the long term
period...but there is some divergence by the end of the period.
Forecast confidence decreases near the end of the period due to the
lack of consensus between guidance packages.
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.
However...westerly flow off the eastern Gulf of Mexico will create
local MVFR ceilings early this morning which may impact srq/pie/tpa.
continue fetch of west to southwest winds over the coastal waters
will create a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches.
Otherwise...main hazard in the short term will be scattered
thunderstorms this morning across the northern waters.
Thunderstorms will redevelop over a good portion of the waters
again on Monday with the stronger storms capable of producing
strong gusty winds and heavy rain. An area of low pressure will
move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday with a
continued threat from thunderstorms capable of producing strong
gusty winds and heavy rain.
no fire weather hazards through the period. Relative humidity
values will remain above critical levels each afternoon.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 86 77 85 71 / 20 40 60 40
fmy 89 77 89 73 / 10 20 40 30
gif 87 73 86 70 / 20 30 60 40
srq 85 76 84 72 / 20 40 50 40
bkv 86 71 85 66 / 30 40 60 50
spg 83 77 84 74 / 20 50 60 40
Florida...Beach hazards statement through this evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Lee-coastal Manatee-coastal
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...13/Oglesby