Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
935 PM EDT sun Aug 2 2015

Short term (rest of tonight)...
a well defined low pressure area located along the coast of the
Florida Big Bend will ease northeastward overnight...onshore
northern Florida. This system is producing showers and thunderstorms on
the northeastern Gulf waters that will rotate onshore west central
and southwest Florida through the rest of tonight. The best odds and
most coverage will generally be from the Tampa Bay area north...a
Flood Watch remains in effect for this area. Currently these
showers and storms cover Levy County where a Flood Warning is in
place through the evening. In addition...the low pressure and
high pressure across southern Florida will maintain a tight pressure
gradient with robust onshore flow. Coastal locations from Pasco to
Levy will see some above normal tides with minor flooding
possible. From Pinellas to Lee there will be a high risk of rip
currents. Current forecasts look very good but have made some
minor adjustments...with little significant change in the text
forecasts.

&&

Aviation...
02/00z-03/00z. Broken-overcast middle and high clouds was vicinity rain showers on the
Gulf scoot through the terminals overnight. Clouds begin to
diminish Monday...allowing enough heating for morning rain showers to become
thunderstorms and rain in the afternoon. Can not rule out brief MVFR/IFR but timing
is tricky and will maintain VFR. Winds SW and west although back
to southerly late night in the south.

&&

Marine... low pressure to the north and high pressure across
southern Florida will maintain a tight gradient across the waters with
very robust winds...generally north of Englewood where a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect. Expect winds to stay up a bit longer and
have pushed the advisory into Monday morning.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 76 86 78 90 / 80 80 40 50
fmy 77 90 76 92 / 20 40 30 50
gif 74 87 74 92 / 50 70 40 50
srq 77 87 77 88 / 50 60 40 30
bkv 75 86 74 90 / 90 90 50 50
spg 77 86 79 89 / 70 80 40 40

&&

Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for coastal Citrus-
coastal Hernando-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Levy-
coastal Pasco-inland Citrus-inland Hernando-inland
Hillsborough-inland Levy-inland Pasco-Pinellas.

High rip current risk through Monday afternoon for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Hillsborough-coastal Lee-coastal
Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 am EDT Monday for coastal
waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 nm-
coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
Florida out 20 nm-Tampa Bay waters-waters from Englewood
to Tarpon Springs Florida out 20 to 60 nm-waters from
Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River Florida out 20 to 60 nm.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation/marine...09/rude
decision support services...14/mroczka
data services and hydrology...007/Dougherty

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations