Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
800 PM EST Tuesday Mar 3 2015
afternoon cumulus continues to fade away with mostly clear skies
expected overnight. Models still producing fog after midnight but
MOS limits fog to only a few hours around daybreak. If easterly
winds stay up we could end up with low clouds but visibilities over
4 miles. Will keep forecast as is and will continue to monitor.
VFR most of the period but fog with IFR ceilings/visibility is possible
between 09-13z...similar to what we have seen the last few days.
Conditions rapidly improve after 13z.
patchy fog forecast across marine zones after midnight. The best
chance for widespread low visibilities are across the waters north
of Tampa Bay. Widespread sea fog possible Thursday as moisture pools
ahead of an approaching cold front. The front moves through Thursday
night with improving conditions from north to south. The front
stalls across South Florida Friday so we will have to evaluate the
fog risk for the weekend.
no fire weather concerns over the next few days as relative
humidities remain above 35 percent with winds and erc values are
below critical thresholds.
Short term/aviation/fire weather...72/Noah