Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
945 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2015
surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and peninsula of
Florida produced a sunny...cooler...and drier Spring day across
west central and southwest Florida today. Aloft...a 500 mb trough
is digging through the eastern Seaboard of the United States. Due
to the lack of moisture close to the surface...demonstrated on the
00z tbw sounding by a precipitable water value of 0.47 inches...no
rain is expected as this feature swings by the area.
Overall...winds should die down tonight and the high clouds
present much of the day should begin to clear out of the northern
and central portions of the forecast area. Recent guidance has
been trending a tad cooler...have adjusted the forecast in these
areas a degree or so colder. New zones were issued to show the
minor forecast tweaks and remove the expired rip current risk
VFR through the period with northerly winds overnight. Winds will
pick up more after sunrise on Sunday and gust into the afternoon.
Winds should begin to lighten during the evening hours.
winds and seas continue to slowly diminish and subside via C-man and
offshore buoys trends this evening as the gradient slowly relaxes as
surface high pressure builds in from the north. Northwest winds this
evening will veer to the north overnight then northeast on Sunday as
high pressure builds towards the southeast U.S.Coast through Sunday.
Given current and expected trends should be able to remove exercise
caution headlines in the late evening update...otherwise the rest of
the forecast is on track with no other changes expected at this time.
Tranquil boating conditions will continue through early next week as
high pressure settles in over the region.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 48 71 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
fmy 49 76 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
gif 46 72 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
srq 48 72 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
bkv 38 70 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
spg 53 70 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
decision support services...11/mckaughan