Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
427 am EDT Tuesday Sep 2 2014
Short term (today-wednesday)...
quiet conditions across the forecast area early this morning with
just a few showers over the offshore Gulf waters. The surface
ridge axis remains north of the area for today as an upper-level
low moves westward to the south of the Florida Peninsula. Easterly
flow will be in place again with the East Coast sea breeze forming
early this afternoon and moving steadily westward...colliding with
the West Coast sea breeze later in the afternoon and evening right
around the I-75 corridor. For Wednesday...the upper low will be
south of the state with some cooler middle-level temperatures still forecast
to arrive. The surface ridge will remain in a similar spot for
Wednesday...so still expecting scattered storms developing along
the sea breeze collision in the afternoon and evening.
Long term (wednesday night-tuesday)...
medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement through the
long term periods. An upper level trough and increasing deep
layer moisture will spread northwestward across the state on
Thursday and Friday...with weak upper level ridging then building
into the area over the weekend and into early next week. At the
surface...the subtropical ridge axis is expected to remain north
of the forecast area through the end of the work week...with model
solutions then showing some disagreement in positioning details
over the weekend and into early next week. The GFS and Canadian
show the ridge axis remaining north of the forecast area...but the
European model (ecmwf) shows it shifting southward into central Florida.
Overall...typical summertime weather is expected to prevail with
scattered to numerous mainly afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms expected each day. High temperatures will remain
close to normal through the long term period.
VFR conditions expected overall. Thunderstorms in the vicinity in place for all sites
starting around 17z or 18z...similar to the past few days.
east southeast winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet of less
will continue through the week. The sea breeze will set up along
the coastline each day turning winds onshore. Scattered showers
and storms will be possible each day developing over land and then
pushing westward over the coastal waters during the evening hours.
Mariners should expect gusty winds and higher seas in the vicinity
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 91 76 91 76 / 40 20 40 30
fmy 93 74 91 74 / 60 20 50 20
gif 93 74 92 74 / 30 10 40 10
srq 92 75 91 73 / 50 30 50 30
bkv 93 72 93 71 / 30 30 40 30
spg 92 79 90 78 / 40 30 40 30
Short term/aviation/marine/fire weather...05/Carlisle