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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
344 PM EDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Short term (tonight - friday)...
a drier airmass over the region can still be seen on water vapor
satellite imagery this afternoon...and is keeping showers and
thunderstorms well suppressed early this afternoon. A few cells
are fighting to develop along the West Coast sea breeze over the
Nature well as over southwest Florida where moisture is
a little better. Despite the slow start...isolated to scattered
storms still seems plausible for late this afternoon as the East
Coast sea breeze comes across...with the highest chances over
southwest Florida. Overnight...high resolution models and MOS
guidance are hinting that fog could develop again over the Nature
Coast and interior central Florida. Skies are expected to be
fairly cloudy...which will make fog formation difficult...however
wet ground from showers late this afternoon and evening could help
things along. All that said...any fog that develops will likely
remain patchy in nature...and less extensive than what was seen
last night.

A shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico tonight and into northern Florida on Friday...with
middle/low level moisture increasing ahead of the shortwave. Showers
and a few storms are expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico
tonight and early Friday morning...and expand into the Florida
Peninsula along with widespread cloudiness during the late morning
and early afternoon hours...with the most favorable regions over
central and southwest Florida seeing 80 percent chances of showers
during the afternoon. With the rain and cloudiness...temperatures
will have a difficult time rising to their normal Summer
levels...with many locations not making it out of the low 80s.

Long term (saturday through next wednesday)...
the period begins with an upper trough over the southeast U.S. And
eastern Gulf while high pressure offshore New England sprawls
southward to the Gulf and Florida...with an inverted trough east of the
state. During the weekend a short wave trough slides out of Canada
to the Great Lakes region...deepening as it does...with the upper
trough becoming a broad closed low over Florida...spinning the surface
tough into a low east of the Georgia/Florida coast. These two features track
northeastward toward the end of the weekend as the Great Lakes
trough begins to drop down to the Gulf Coast.

For the early part of next week the Great Lakes-Gulf Coast trough
slides out over Atlantic coastal waters as deep layer ridging
builds over the Mississippi River valley then moves east...pushing
a frontal boundary across the Gulf coastal and southeastern states
and into the East Gulf and Florida.

The troughiness over the weekend followed by the frontal boundary
sagging in will maintain a moist atmosphere with isolated to
scattered showers and storms. There will be some minor variation in
temperatures but within a degree or two of normal.


a few showers and storms are beginning to develop along sea breeze
boundaries...and should fill in from Tampa Bay southward this
afternoon. At times...MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible as
storms move over individual taf sites. Early Friday
morning...patchy fog will be possible over the Nature Coast and
interior central Florida...potentially reducing visibility at


dry weather over the waters will continue this evening. However...a
shortwave moving through northern Florida will bring good chances of
thunderstorms and fresh breezes for Friday and Saturday. Winds may
reach small craft exercise caution criteria early Saturday. After
the shortwave exits the region a more normal weather pattern will
set up from Sunday into early next week with sea and land breezes
each day.


Fire weather...
no humidity concerns through the next several days. Patchy fog will
be possible again over the interior...especially over areas with wet
ground from rain this afternoon.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 76 83 71 86 / 20 80 30 50
fmy 74 87 72 85 / 30 80 30 50
gif 73 85 70 85 / 20 80 30 60
srq 75 85 71 85 / 30 80 30 50
bkv 71 84 67 87 / 20 70 30 60
spg 78 82 74 86 / 30 80 30 50


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Gulf waters...none.



Short term/aviation/fire weather...18/Fleming
long term...09/rude
decision support...69/close

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