Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
957 am MDT Thu Oct 30 2014

Update...
current forecast is generally on track. A strong upper ridge will
keep the forecast area dry today. Satellite imagery is indicating
cloudy skies over SW Montana so have increased sky cover for the
remainder of the morning in that area. Clouds will also be
increasing over the east slopes this afternoon but am getting
conflicting guidance from the models as to whether the sky
condition will be cloudy or partly cloudy. Decided to go with
partly cloudy skies which is an increase from the sunny skies in
the earlier forecast. The Havre area is reporting fog so the
forecast of same for that area looks fine. Blank

&&



Aviation...
updated 1200z.
VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure builds. Mid/high level
ceilings expected with light winds overall.

&&

Previous discussion...
/issued 600 am MDT Thu Oct 30 2014/

Today through Saturday...the short term period will be marked by
warm and generally quiet weather today and Friday before a
transition to more active weather begins on Saturday. Early this
morning there is a chance for some low level clouds and possible
areas of fog in my far northeastern zones. However, an upper
level ridge will gradually build in strength as it slowly
progresses across Montana today with westerly surface winds and
warming temperatures dissipating morning fog. Only variable mid to
high level clouds are expected this afternoon through Halloween
night with temperatures warming to near record highs in many
locations Friday afternoon. Saturday Marks a transition day as a
significant upper level trough moves inland along the entire West
Coast of the USA. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main
trough will bring increasing clouds and a chance for precipitation
across western portions of the forecast area. More importantly, a
surface low pressure system develops across southern Montana by
late Saturday afternoon with surface winds across north central
Montana becoming northerly allowing cooler Canadian air to begin
spilling into the region. Mpj

Saturday night through Thursday...a low pressure system begins to
move inland over the West Coast Saturday bringing moisture and
chances for showers to the Continental Divide by Saturday night.
Models bring precipitation chances to all of central Montana Sunday,
lasting into early Monday for some places. Cold air associated with
this system looks to bring widespread chances of snowfall over
central Montana Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall in the mountains
may be of significant accumulation. The system moves quick, exiting
east Monday, but some lingering precipitation may be seen over the
mountains. High pressure transits over the region Tuesday night
before unsettled westerly flow brings a chance of precipitation back
to the Continental Divide Wednesday. High temperatures will be
mostly in the 40s Sunday and Monday before warming back to near 60
by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures Sunday and Monday will be
below freezing in many locations, especially over southwest Montana.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 59 41 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
ctb 55 36 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
hln 62 39 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
bzn 60 33 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
wey 50 24 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
dln 59 37 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
hvr 51 34 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
lwt 59 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Weather.Gov/greatfalls
www.Twitter.Com/nwsgreatfalls
www.Facebook.Com/nwsgreatfalls

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations