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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
438 PM MST sun Feb 7 2016

Aviation section updated

Discussion...

Tonight through Tuesday...a quiet weather pattern is in store for
the area to start the week. An upper ridge will continue to
amplify over the West Coast Monday and then spread further inland
on Tuesday. The result will be a dry and stable northwest flow
aloft, though high clouds will increase overnight. Winds will be
generally light overnight as the pressure gradient continues to
relax. Winds will become breezy again Monday afternoon. Temperatures
will be well above seasonal averages with readings some 15 to 20
degrees above average for much of north central Montana.

Tuesday night through Sunday...an upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue to reside over the region through Thursday
morning...allowing for much above normal temperatures and dry
weather to prevail over the region during this period. For Thursday
afternoon through Sunday...the GFS/ec each try to break down the
ridge for about a day...but the timing is different...and so is the
strength of the system that tries to break down the ridge. As a
result...confidence is low for the probability of precipitation late this week and into the
weekend...with the best chance for any area to see precipitation
being the Rocky Mountain front. Temperatures will cool a touch for
Friday through Sunday...but still average 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for many areas. Both models are showing that by next Sunday
afternoon the upper level ridge might rebuild over the
region...resulting in another period of dry/mild conditions starting
on Sunday afternoon. Brusda

&&

Aviation...updated 2336z.

High pressure is building aloft and the airmass will warm and dry.
Middle-upper level cloudiness will diminish tonight and winds will be
light. Afternoon mixing will allow for gusty winds across the
northern rockies and adjacent plains Monday. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 29 53 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
ctb 26 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
hln 26 44 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
bzn 18 39 18 41 / 0 0 0 0
wey 13 33 11 36 / 0 0 0 0
dln 24 41 23 43 / 0 0 0 0
hvr 22 46 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
lwt 22 45 29 51 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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