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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
338 am MDT Fri Jul 25 2014


Today through Sunday...gusty westerly winds will persist today along
the Rocky Mountain front and adjacent plains as an upper-level low
over southern Canada gradually shifts east. Have continued the High
Wind Warning through this afternoon for the northern Rocky Mountain
front and eastern Glacier County. Breezy west winds of 20 to 30 mph
and gusts up to 40 mph are also expected in eastern portions of the
forecast area including hill, Blaine, Chouteau and Fergus counties.
In addition to the breezy west winds, afternoon relative humidity values near 20
percent will lead to critical fire weather conditions for fire zones
113 and 115 and have issued a red flag warning from noon today to
midnight. By tonight, a ridge of high pressure will build into the
area allowing for winds to decrease. This upper-level ridge will
remain over the northern rockies through the weekend yielding mainly
dry and warm conditions as well as lighter winds. The only exception
is in far southwest Montana where limited monsoonal moisture and
instability may trigger an isolated thunderstorm. Mlv

Sunday night through Friday...Montana will remain beneath an upper
level ridge for the entire forecast period. This pattern will lead
to mostly dry conditions with increasing temperatures through
mid-week as the ridge axis remains over the northern Rocky
Mountains. Wild card in this pattern will be how much monsoonal
moisture will be able to work it's way northward along the leading
edge of the ridge. Pattern suggests that isolated thunderstorm
activity could be possible in far southwest Montana through much of
the period. However, the best chance for isolated convection to work
it's way into central Montana appears to be later in the week as
models depict a disturbance moving northward through the Great Basin
Wednesday and moving into western Montana on Thursday. Confidence in
timing and coverage is low at this time, especially given the
strength of the upper ridge. Main impact during the upcoming week
will be the continued curing of fuels and the increasing likelihood
that despite the low chances for thunderstorm activity, any storms
that do form will be dry thereby increasing fire danger. Mpj


updated 0432z.
Winds will continue to diminish through the evening but will
strengthen again Friday. VFR conditions will prevail through the
next 24 hours.


Fire weather...
a red flag warning is in effect today from noon to midnight for
zones 113 and 115. The combination of minimum relative humidity
values around 20 percent and gusty west winds sustained at 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 40 mph will create critical fire weather


Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 79 49 80 51 / 10 0 0 0
ctb 74 47 76 48 / 10 10 0 0
hln 81 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
bzn 80 44 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
wey 73 34 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
dln 78 46 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
hvr 81 51 79 51 / 10 10 10 0
lwt 80 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0


Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...
red flag warning from noon today to midnight MDT tonight

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon northern Rocky
Mountain front and eastern Glacier.




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