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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Great Falls Montana
1010 am MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Update...
current forecast is on track. Just a few minor adjustments to
pops/temps for today...but nothing significant. Light rain/snow
showers continue in the mountains of southwest Montana...with snow
mainly falling above elevations of 6500 feet. Any new snow
accumulations today in the mountains will generally be less than
one inch. It will still be breezy today over north central
Montana...but wind speeds should not be quite as strong as yesterday.
The rest of the forecast is on track. Brusda

&&

Aviation...
updated 1200z.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be
mostly mid level with the exception of the Continental Divide where
showers may be seen. West winds are expected to remain breezy across
the area with locations along the Rocky Mountain front experiencing
the strongest gusts. Expect winds to diminish after 00z Friday.

&&

Previous discussion...
/issued 600 am MDT Fri Oct 24 2014/
tonight through Sunday...southwest flow aloft will continue over
the area until an upper trough moves into western Montana Sunday.
Snow showers over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain front will
diminish the rest of Thursday night into this morning. Meanwhile
showers will increase over the western mountains of southwest
Montana today. An area of lift is expected to develop over
southwest Montana this afternoon then spread north tonight. Expect
scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains as a result and
there will also be a slight chance of a light shower over the
east slopes. Drier air will spread north in the wake of the area
of lift as an upper ridge develops over Montana. This ridge will
move east Saturday as an upper trough moves to near the West
Coast. This upper trough will then move east Saturday night and an
associated cold front will move east through the forecast area. Do
not see a lot of moisture with the cold front so will continue
with the idea of snow showers over the Rocky Mountain front with
just scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains of
southwest Montana. With the upper trough Sunday the chances of
precipitation will be higher. However gusty downslope winds will
limit precipitation chances over the plains. Snow levels will
tumble from 9000 to 10000 feet above mean sea level Saturday to a
range from 5000 ft in the northwest portion of the forecast area
to between 6000 and 7000 feet in the southeast on Sunday. Snow
in the mountains should be at the most only a few inches.

Wind situation...high winds have failed to develop over the Rocky
Mountain front so have cancelled the High Wind Warning. Also strong
winds in the Cut Bank area will diminish by daybreak. Blank

Sunday night through Friday...models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region Sunday night
into Monday. With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances
appear to be mostly limited to the west and Southwest Mountains. The
system exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly
moving over the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops
Wednesday and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass
over Montana Wednesday. A low pressure system off the West Coast
will bring warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the
week. Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later
in the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
gtf 60 38 65 44 / 10 20 0 10
ctb 55 35 59 40 / 0 20 0 10
hln 59 39 68 42 / 20 20 0 10
bzn 60 33 69 37 / 30 10 0 10
wey 49 28 60 27 / 20 10 0 20
dln 55 38 68 40 / 20 10 0 20
hvr 59 37 63 40 / 0 10 0 10
lwt 59 38 68 43 / 10 20 0 10

&&

Tfx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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