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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1101 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015

Discussion...

The 06z taf discussion is included below.

&&

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
No major changes to the 00z forecast. VFR conditions will prevail
with increasing middle cloud ceilings toward 12z Tuesday morning. Increasing
warm advection above the surface will yield some scattered rain showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms and rain Tuesday morning.

Lacy

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 732 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015/

Discussion...
have expanded the slight chance probability of precipitation for tonight as the last few
runs of the hrrr have been consistent in spreading the precipitation across
a wider swath of eastern Oklahoma through 12z. Otherwise...current
forecast for tonight is on track.

Previous discussion... /issued 610 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015/

Discussion...

The 00z taf discussion is included below.

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
VFR conditions will prevail. Increasing warm advection above the
surface will produce middle cloud and chances for showers...possibly
a few storms...by Tuesday morning. Ceilings will remain in the VFR
range however.

Lacy

Previous discussion... /issued 351 PM CDT Monday Apr 20 2015/

Discussion...
cloudiness will be on the increase tonight as a weak upper level
impulse approaches the area. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will move into the area late tonight and continue
into Tuesday in association with this system.

A frontal boundary will move south into the area late Tuesday
night and Wednesday and will stall near the Red River. This
boundary will then return north late in the week and will be the
focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There will
be some severe weather threat Wednesday and Thursday...especially
if early day convection is not too extensive...although the
greater threat may be to our southwest where instability will be
maximized. Friday looks to be the day of greatest concern in our
area as low pressure aloft lifts northeast from New Mexico into
Kansas and a dryline begins to surge east across Oklahoma.

A few showers may linger into Saturday but most of the weekend
will be dry before low rain chances return by the early part of
next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 48 73 52 70 / 10 40 20 50
fsm 45 72 52 73 / 10 30 10 50
mlc 47 71 54 74 / 20 30 20 50
bvo 44 74 50 68 / 10 30 20 40
fyv 40 68 47 68 / 0 40 10 40
byv 43 67 49 66 / 0 30 10 40
mko 46 72 52 72 / 20 30 10 50
Mio 42 70 49 66 / 0 40 30 30
f10 45 72 54 72 / 20 30 20 50
hhw 46 72 55 75 / 10 20 20 70

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...30

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