Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
438 am CDT Friday Aug 1 2014

Discussion...
visibility at several metar sites in eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas have been in full bounce Mode
much of the night. Given rain of the last couple days
will carry patchy dense fog until 10 am all locations.
Marginal..slight chance probability of precipitation extreme eastern counties.
Soggy ground...residual stubborn stratus cloud likely
to hold temperatures below consensus model output today.

GFS/European model (ecmwf) spitting out very light quantitative precipitation forecast both Saturday &
Sunday. Little lift to justify any mention of precipitation.
Dry weekend forecast.

Quiet through middle week with below normal temperatures.
A good time of year for below normal temps!

European model (ecmwf)/GFS at odds in speed and influence of short wave
energy moving from the northern rockies to Great Lakes
region later part of next week. GFS about a day faster
and brings precipitation to our area..while slow European model (ecmwf)
keeps precipitation north. Marginal probability of precipitation Wednesday night into
Friday. Gw



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 84 66 89 67 / 10 0 0 0
fsm 80 67 87 69 / 20 10 0 0
mlc 80 66 86 67 / 10 0 0 0
bvo 85 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
fyv 79 59 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
byv 79 61 84 62 / 20 0 0 0
mko 82 64 86 66 / 10 0 0 0
Mio 84 63 86 64 / 10 0 10 0
f10 81 65 85 66 / 10 0 0 0
hhw 77 66 85 66 / 20 10 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...69
long term....21

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations