Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
For the 12z tafs... areas of patchy light fog may temporarily
reduce visibilities to MVFR levels early this morning.
Otherwise... VFR conditions will prevail at all sites with
generally light southerly winds and scattered high clouds.
Previous discussion... /issued 318 am CDT Friday Oct 24 2014/
light/patchy fog continues across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this morning. Visibilities will quickly improve shortly after
sunrise with no significant impacts. Main weather story will be the
unseasonably warm conditions expected into the weekend as large
upper high over the Desert Southwest shifts east into the Southern
Plains. High temperatures will likely be running a good 15 degrees
above normal in many areas both Saturday and Sunday with a few
locations approaching 20 degree above normal.
Upper high will slowly weaken into the early part of next week
as broad upper trough shifts into the central US. Cold front will
move into the area Monday night...pushing south to near the Red
River on Tuesday before stalling. Scattered showers will be likely
with a few embedded thunderstorms during this time...however overall
quantitative precipitation forecast amounts appear to be light. Lingering showers/isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible along stalled front across far southeast Oklahoma
/west central Arkansas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Kept the
remainder of the forecast dry as some timing/strength differences
remain between the GFS/European model (ecmwf) on progression of upper wave over the
northern/Central Plains into Thursday.