Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Ongoing convecion across Kansas is expected to remain
north of the taf sites the remainder of the night. VFR
conditions with breezy south winds areawide for Monday.
Additional storms expected along cold front late Monday
afternoon...potentially impacting kbvo/kfyv and kxna
after 03z.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 900 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014/

...

Discussion...
the main forecast points this evening are that southerly winds
will remain up overnight and so will temperatures. These items are covered
well by the going forecast and so there will be no update this
evening.

Previous discussion... /issued 626 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014/

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Ongoing convection across Kansas may approach the Oklahoma
late tonight...and will keep a mention of vicinity thunder
for kbvo. Otherwise expect VFR conditions...with breezy
south winds.

Previous discussion... /issued 346 PM CDT sun Aug 31 2014/

Discussion...

A fast moving vorticity maximum was located over southern Wyoming per WV
imagery...located in the base of a broad...low amplitude upper
trough over the northwest quarter of the Continental U.S.. winds were 100kts
at jet level on the back side of the vorticity maximum...so this system is
fairly energetic and will be moving across the Central Plains
tonight. Another vorticity maximum was located upstream off the coast of
British Columbia and will move across the plains late tomorrow. At
the surface...a cold front was moving south/southeast across
Nebraska and into northwest Kansas. The pre-frontal trough will
keep south winds up tonight...combine that with the high dewpoints
in place will yield a rather warm night tonight.

An elevated mixed layer will advect east across Oklahoma and
Arkansas on the southern fringe of the westerlies tonight into
Monday. With 700mb temperatures on the order of +12 to +14c...there will
be a Stout cap in place tonight into Monday. Any storms which
develop farther north this afternoon and tonight should remain to
our north and west for tonight. The cold front will settle south
in our direction on Monday...slowing as it becomes more parallel
with the flow aloft. Due to the strong cap...it will likely take
till late afternoon...closer to 00z...before storms can fire along
the front. Storms will fire first in SW MO then down into southeast Kansas
and north central OK with time. The best risk for severe weather will be
with the initial and discrete development...before storms likely
congeal into clusters and drop south into NE OK and northwest Arkansas Monday
night. Will carry highest probability of precipitation Monday night and then gradually
trend them down on Tuesday as the boundary...possibly convective
outflow reinforced by then...stalls and then starts to retreat
north. By Tuesday night the best chance for storms will be in the
warm advection regime north of the retreating boundary and thus
should be north of the Kansas and Missouri borders. Rising middle level
heights Tuesday night into Wednesday will end precipitation chances over
our region for the time being.

The GFS and European model (ecmwf) deterministic runs were in good agreement for
the later periods of the forecast...surprisingly. A progressive low
amplitude regime should continue across the northern tier of
states...with middle level ridging over the south central/southeast
states. By the end of the week...another energetic shortwave
trough will slide across the country...and will help to erode the
ridge while also forcing a cold front into our region. The data
suggests there will be a better southward push to this front. Odds
are that the week will close out on a cooler and wetter
note...hopefully. Highs/lows were lowered several degrees next
weekend back into the 80s.

Lacy

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 79 95 75 93 / 10 10 50 40
fsm 73 93 75 92 / 10 10 20 40
mlc 77 93 76 93 / 10 0 20 20
bvo 76 95 71 92 / 10 30 50 40
fyv 71 89 73 86 / 10 20 40 50
byv 71 91 71 85 / 10 20 50 50
mko 73 93 75 92 / 10 10 30 40
Mio 74 92 72 88 / 10 30 50 50
f10 75 93 76 93 / 10 10 30 30
hhw 73 94 75 93 / 10 0 10 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...18

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations