Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
526 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014
The 12z taf discussion is included below.
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
VFR conditions will prevail this period as high pressure both
aloft and at the surface dominate. Some increase in middle and high
cloud is possible. Surface winds will switch around to the south and
will gradually increase late in the day and into tonight.
Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Sat Nov 1 2014/
Coldest morning of the season is in progress...with almost all of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas below freezing at this
time. Most sites seeing a little wind...keeping temperatures from
completely bottoming out...with the coolest readings at locations
with calm winds.
The surface high will push into the Mississippi Valley by this
afternoon...which will lead to southerly winds returning to at
least parts of eastern Oklahoma before nightfall. Despite
this and the likelihood of full sun today...the chilly start and
continued cool low level temperatures will keep highs some 15
degrees below normal.
The southerly winds will strengthen on Sunday...with some low
level moisture and warmer near surface temperatures returning to
the region. Highs tomorrow will be around 10 degrees warmer than
todays. Since vegetation has entered the cured stages...the warmer
temperatures and gusty winds will lead to heightened fire weather
concerns tomorrow. Current thinking is that the low level moisture
will return enough that red flag criteria will not be met...with
afternoon relative humidities at a low...but not drastically
low...30 to 35 percent where the strongest winds and highest
temperatures both coexist.
An amplified upper level trough will move through the southwestern
United States Monday...with its associated cold front nearing the
area by Monday night. Shower and thunderstorm potential will
increase ahead of the front across parts of eastern
Oklahoma...especially northwest of Interstate 44...due to an
increasing low level jet. More widespread rains will accompany the
front Monday night and into Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall will
be likely...as forecast precipitable water values will be near the
99th percentile for this time of year. On average...1 to 2 inches
still looks to be a good bet...especially from parts of southeast
Oklahoma into west central Arkansas.
The upper trough will be slow to move out of the region...and
should linger through much of the week across parts of the southwest
United States into Texas. While the most widespread rains should
remain south of the Red River after Wednesday or so...parts of far
southeast Oklahoma could be on the fringes. The upper low will
eventually get a kick from a northern stream trough...and in the
process...increase rain chances again across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas late in the week and into the early part of the
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 55 40 64 52 / 0 0 0 10
fsm 56 35 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
mlc 56 38 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
bvo 54 35 64 50 / 0 0 0 10
fyv 53 32 60 44 / 0 0 0 0
byv 51 33 61 43 / 0 0 0 0
mko 55 36 63 47 / 0 0 0 0
Mio 53 36 63 49 / 0 0 0 0
f10 55 38 63 50 / 0 0 0 0
hhw 57 34 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
OK...freeze warning until 10 am Saturday for okz049-okz053-okz054-
Arkansas...freeze warning until 10 am Saturday for arz001-arz002-arz010-