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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 am CST Thursday Nov 26 2015


The main forecast challenges/concerns continue to be heavy
rainfall/flooding and winter weather potential thru the weekend.

There were no major changes to the forecast rationale from what we
have had advertised for the past day or so. A strong and shallow
cold front will plunge south and east tonight into Friday across
the region...and will interact with unseasonably moist air in
place /pw values more than 3 times climatology for this time of
year/ to produce bands of heavy rain and embedded storms beginning
late this afternoon and gradually spreading south Friday and
Saturday. The Flash Flood Watch in effect tonight and Friday has
been extended through Saturday for southeast OK into western Arkansas.
The heaviest rains will fall mainly along and south of
I-40...where multiple rounds of rainfall are expected going into
the weekend. After all is said and done...between 4 and 8 inches
of rain is expected...which will likely cause river and flash
flooding. Some rivers in southeast OK could reach moderate or even
major flood stage from this event.

With a well established warm layer aloft in place in the SW flow
regime ahead of the large positive tilt upper trough to our
west...all precip will fall as liquid. So the only question from a
winter weather perspective will be where the surface freezing line
sets up. The latest data from the NAM...a model which tends to
handle the shallow cold air better...suggests that the freezing
line will come far enough southeast to allow for some light icing
mainly west of Highway 75 in northeast OK Friday night into
Saturday. At this point it still appears that ice accumulation is
not expected in the Tulsa Metro. With borderline surface temps and
lighter precip forecast appears the main impact would
be on bridges. Since this would be an advisory level event and
still in the third period and later of the winter
weather headlines are planned at this time. That can be addressed

The rain will come to an end Monday as the slow moving western
Continental U.S. Trough finally lifts northeast over the plains.



Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 68 36 37 33 / 90 100 90 80
fsm 69 52 54 40 / 40 100 100 90
mlc 69 42 43 34 / 70 100 100 90
bvo 66 35 36 32 / 100 100 90 80
fyv 65 43 45 35 / 50 100 100 90
byv 65 44 46 35 / 40 100 100 90
mko 68 41 41 35 / 80 100 100 90
Mio 68 37 38 33 / 80 100 100 80
f10 68 37 38 33 / 80 100 100 80
hhw 70 58 62 38 / 50 100 100 90


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
for okz049-053-068>076.

Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for

Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
for arz001-002-010-011-019-020-029.



Long term....30

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