Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
532 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Ceilings/visibilities will drop to MVFR/IFR conditions this morning
as light snow overspreads the area. Wintry precipitation will
taper off during the overnight hours...although MVFR to IFR
ceilings/visibilities will persist.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 343 am CST Sat Feb 28 2015/

Discussion...
snow to continue today across much of the area...with NE OK and northwest
to see additional 1-3 inch totals. Southeast OK will begin to see gradual
changeover to a mixed bag of precipitation this afternoon as warm advection
begins. This transition will work its way north overnight...with
light freezing rain/freezing drizzle expected from later tonight
into Sunday morning as warmer and drier air aloft begins to over
take the region. The current advisory runs through midnight
tonight. In all likelihood it will need to be extended beyond
06z. Will let day shift handle that since it falls under the first
period of the next forecast package. Expect precipitation to remain
mainly liquid...but the next boundary moving through Sunday may
allow for some light freezing rain Sunday night/Monday morning. Warm
up ensues Monday...with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing
Monday night and continuing Tuesday evening ahead of the next cold
front. Will keep mention of light snow behind the front beginning late
Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the colder air expands further
south and east. System finally pushes east overnight Wednesday.
After the upper trough passes by... the Southern Plains will see a period
of settled...and warmer weather late in the week and into the
weekend.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 30 28 40 28 / 100 60 50 20
fsm 32 31 42 33 / 50 40 50 30
mlc 33 31 44 32 / 70 40 50 30
bvo 29 27 38 24 / 100 80 50 10
fyv 29 29 39 26 / 60 50 50 30
byv 28 28 37 25 / 60 50 50 30
mko 31 28 42 28 / 70 40 50 30
Mio 29 28 37 24 / 100 80 50 10
f10 32 29 43 29 / 70 40 50 20
hhw 34 33 46 37 / 50 40 50 50

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight Sunday for okz049-okz053-
okz054-okz055-okz056-okz057-okz058-okz059-okz060-okz061-
okz062-okz063-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-
okz070-okz071-okz072-okz073-okz074-okz075-okz076.

Arkansas...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight Sunday for arz001-arz002-
arz010-arz011-arz019-arz020-arz029.

&&

$$

Aviation...18

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations