Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013
Discussion...
The 00z taf discussion is included below.
&&
Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Rain/storms are moving out...with skies clearing this evening. Due
to the recent rains and wet ground...some patchy fog will likely
develop. Think the fog will be most prominent over southeast OK
where the heaviest rains fell so I have brought kmlc down to IFR
visibility. The hydrolapse becomes unfavorable for widespread dense fog
tonight as the boundary layer dries out after midnight. So for
now stayed conservative on visibilities at the other sites.
Lacy
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 312 PM CDT Tuesday may 21 2013/
Discussion...
linear mesoscale convective system that has formed ahead of compact upper system surging
across OK/Texas is currently moving across portions of southeastern OK. The
line has been strong/marginally severe so far...and still could see
some 60+ miles per hour wind gusts over the next few hours. Hrrr has shown a
very good handle on the complex...with the leading edge exiting our
forecast area around 22z-23z. Current Flash Flood Watch is set to
expire at 00z...although may extend it a few more hours. Will take a
last look at radar before final decision. Otherwise...partially
clearing skies along with drier low-level air will allow temperatures to
fall into the 50s for much of the area.
Weak surface boundary may be present across the area on
Wednesday...although atmosphere should be too dry and worked over to
support precipitation.
Upper pattern will become increasingly amplified by middle-to-late
week...with ridging through the plains sandwiched by deep upper
systems across the Pacific northwest and the East Coast. Models suggest that
several weak waves will move into the mean ridge position...with at
least some low probability of precipitation warranted across western sections in the very
warm/moist airmass.
Upper ridge should flatten some across the southern/centrl plains going
into the weekend. With the forecast area along the southern edge of the
stronger upper flow...should see periodic shower/thunderstorm
episodes...especially across NE OK/northwest Arkansas. Tough to pinpoint which
day will have the best chances...so have maintained general chance
probability of precipitation for about the northern half of the area for the weekend and into
early next week.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 55 81 58 78 / 10 0 10 20
fsm 58 83 62 81 / 60 10 10 10
mlc 55 83 61 84 / 20 0 10 20
bvo 52 81 54 77 / 10 0 10 20
fyv 54 79 55 76 / 70 10 10 10
byv 56 79 55 77 / 70 10 10 10
mko 55 82 60 79 / 20 10 10 20
Mio 54 78 56 78 / 20 10 10 10
f10 55 82 61 79 / 10 0 10 20
hhw 60 85 64 85 / 20 0 10 20
&&
Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM Tuesday for okz049-okz053-okz068-
okz069-okz070-okz071-okz072-okz073-okz074-okz075-okz076.
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM Tuesday for arz001-arz002-arz010-
arz011-arz019-arz020-arz029.
&&
$$
Aviation...30
