Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
425 am CDT Sat Sep 5 2015

Discussion...
not much change in the sensible weather over the next couple of
days as upper ridge remains over the area. Slightly better low
level moisture resulted in isolated convection mainly in the
favored terrain areas of southeast OK Friday and similar results
expected both today and Sunday. Progged low level thermal fields
support a degree or so of warming each day. Heat index values
likely to exceed 100 in many spots but should remain below
advisory threshold.

Ridge will be broken down as series of upper systems in main
westerlies move across northern states. First system will push a
frontal boundary into the Central Plains by late Sunday, with some
potential for storms associated with this boundary to approach
northern OK by early Monday. Model data continues to suggest front
will push farther south Tue night into Wed with higher precip
chances arriving at that time. This will also knock temps down to
slightly below normal levels for the last half of next week. More
significant cold front may arrive prior to next weekend.




&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 94 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
fsm 94 74 95 74 / 10 10 20 10
mlc 97 76 98 76 / 20 10 20 10
bvo 93 70 94 71 / 10 10 10 10
fyv 90 68 91 69 / 10 10 10 10
byv 93 71 94 72 / 10 10 10 10
mko 95 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
Mio 91 72 92 73 / 10 10 10 10
f10 95 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
hhw 98 72 97 73 / 20 10 20 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...12
long term....14

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations