Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
618 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Previous discussion... /issued 316 PM CDT Friday Oct 31 2014/
cold Canadian airmass continues to spread over much of the central
U.S. This afternoon with temperatures struggling to reach 50 in parts of
NE Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas despite full afternoon sun. Dew points
continue to plummet across northern areas and this trend will
continue farther south through the afternoon. Surface high will settle
over the area tonight with calm or light east winds setting the
stage for widespread hard freeze for most areas...a lighter
freeze expected near the Red River and in parts of the Arkansas
River valley in wc Arkansas.
High moves east quickly this weekend with another cool fall
afternoon Saturday. South winds will lead to significantly milder
overnight lows over much of eastern OK Sat night...with cold temperatures
again in sheltered eastern valleys. Gusty south winds and warmer
temperatures Sunday will bring fire weather concerns back into the
picture for the first time in a while as low levels remain quite dry.
Moisture will return Sunday night into Monday as upper system
approaches from the west. Deep plume of subtropical Pacific
moisture spreads into the area by Monday night and Tuesday with a
slow moving frontal boundary in place...setting up a widespread
rain event with most areas seeing 1-2 inches by Tuesday afternoon.
Does not look like excessive totals likely but a much needed
rainfall in any case.
System will move east Wednesday...and after that the medium range
models continue to differ significantly with potential cutoff low
late in the week. For now will keep mainly dry forecast for Wednesday
night and Thursday...with slight chance of rain for Thursday night and
OK...freeze warning from 11 PM Friday to 10 am Saturday for okz049-
Arkansas...freeze warning from 11 PM Friday to 10 am Saturday for arz001-