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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
328 am CDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

Discussion...

The middle level ridge will hold on for one more day across eastern
OK and northwest Arkansas before eroding in the coming days as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west. The NAM 2m temperatures have
done a very good job with highs the past few days and will stick
with it again today...suggesting slightly cooler readings than
yesterday...relatively speaking of course. There was some isolated
storm development yesterday in the east/southeast...and based on
little if any change going on aloft and support from both local
WRF model runs...will go with persistence and insert an isolated
afternoon tstorm mention.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will bring much needed rain and
cooler temperatures to close out the week. Rain/storm chances ramp
up Thursday night and peak Friday night...tapering off on
Saturday. After a brief break to start next week...rain/storm
chances ramp back up by Tuesday. The pop forecast more closely
aligns with the Euro...which has been more consistent on dropping
a frontal boundary down into the region on the southern fringe of
the westerlies...which will be making deeper penetration into the
Continental U.S. Next week in what could be a sign of the upcoming change of
seasons.

Lacy

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 97 73 95 73 / 10 10 10 40
fsm 96 71 94 72 / 10 10 0 20
mlc 95 71 93 72 / 10 10 10 30
bvo 97 69 96 69 / 10 10 10 40
fyv 92 67 91 68 / 10 10 0 20
byv 92 68 91 68 / 10 10 0 10
mko 96 70 94 71 / 10 10 10 30
Mio 96 71 94 70 / 10 10 10 30
f10 95 71 93 71 / 10 10 10 30
hhw 94 70 94 72 / 10 10 10 20

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Long term....30

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