Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1213 PM CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Fog has dissipated giving way to VFR conditions through at least
03z. Fog potential for tonight will be somewhat reduced by
slightly lower dew points. However...mixing during the day today
will not be strong and thus expect some fog to develop in most
areas...with IFR conditions likely again across northwest Arkansas after
06z. Back to all VFR after 15z Wednesday.


Previous discussion... /issued 1016 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/

went ahead and allowed dense fog advisory to expire as scheduled
at 10 am...although the fog continues to hang tough in the more
sheltered valleys of northwest Arkansas. Visible satellite shows fog is
beginning to erode and visibilities have improved at fyv/slg in last half
hour. Fell at this time that visibilities should be all above 1/4 mile
within the hour and likely clear altogether by noon.

Otherwise going forecast looks good as moist axis extending from
into northeast Texas resulting in scattered clouds. Temperatures should be
above normal in all areas by this afternoon.

Previous discussion... /issued 630 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/

concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Areas of fog will result in highly variable flight conditions for
the first few hours of the forecast period. LIFR conditions will
be most likely at kbvo/kfyv/kxna...with ktul most likely to remain
VFR. VFR conditions will prevail at all sites from late morning
into this evening. Late this evening and overnight...areas of fog
will likely redevelop...with kfyv and kxna most likely to see IFR
or lower conditions.

Previous discussion... /issued 244 am CDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014/

areas of dense fog have developed across portions of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this morning...mainly in areas
that saw rain yesterday morning. Have already issued a dense fog
advisory for the affected area until mid-morning. May need to
extend the advisory a little further south. However...a deck of
clouds at 4 to 6 thousand feet is keeping the fog in check for
the time being.

Otherwise...another couple of unseasonably warm days are on tap
for today and Wednesday as high pressure prevails at the surface
and aloft.

The next chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will come
Wednesday night into Thursday as a middle-level shortwave moves
across the plains.

High pressure will reign supreme at the surface and aloft
Friday and over the weekend with even warmer temperatures
expected. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will come
Monday night as cold front moves into the area.


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...14
long term....07

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations