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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
945 PM CDT sun Jul 27 2014

Discussion...
a few strong storms developed S of I-40 in hot and very unstable
airmass as dew points actually reached 80 degrees for a time
across far southeast OK. These storms has since dissipated and
moved southeast. Surface analysis shows cold front near the Red River
and a narrow corridor of elevated instability will remain focused
near the boundary tonight. Thus will keep the going chance of
storms across southeast Oklahoma. Cooler temperatures tonight as drier and
cooler airmass settles over the area...did lower temperatures some in
parts of NE Oklahoma. Updated products will be out soon.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 618 PM CDT sun Jul 27 2014/

...

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed east of kfsm and
southeast of kmlc early this evening...and additional
development is expected to remain south of these taf
sites.

Previous discussion... /issued 402 PM CDT sun Jul 27 2014/

Discussion...
band of showers and thunderstorms near the Kansas border has
maintained itself throughout the day as it slowly drops southeast.
May yet see a few isolated storms develop near the wind shift from
northwest Arkansas into southeast Oklahoma. Thus will carry low
probability of precipitation everywhere this evening...although 20 percent is likely
overkill given the expected low coverage. A better chance of
showers and storms will exist late tonight into early Monday
morning across far southeast Oklahoma.

Cooler and much drier air will invade the area for Monday and
Tuesday. Rain chances will begin to increase Tuesday night and
especially Wednesday into Thursday as a couple upper level
disturbances rotate south and southeast around the upper trough to
our east. The potential does exist for one or both of those days
to be even cooler than forecast in some places if widespread rain
does indeed occur.

Rain chances will lessen as we head into the weekend and afternoon
temperatures will climb well into the 80s...which is still 5-10
degrees below the seasonal normals.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 67 89 64 88 / 10 0 0 0
fsm 71 89 65 88 / 10 0 0 0
mlc 71 89 65 88 / 20 10 0 0
bvo 63 88 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
fyv 63 84 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
byv 63 83 59 84 / 10 0 0 0
mko 66 88 63 87 / 10 0 0 0
Mio 63 86 60 86 / 10 0 0 0
f10 67 88 65 88 / 10 0 0 0
hhw 72 90 67 88 / 40 20 0 0

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...14
long term....99

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