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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm/krog.
Mesoscale convective system crossing taf area this morning OK taf sites...and late
morning early afternoon Arkansas taf sites. Likely non-thunderstorm
VFR period for at least several hours after mesoscale convective system passage...then
more thunderstorms tonight with lowers ceilings and visible.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 311 am CDT Thursday may 28 2015/

Discussion...
Flash Flood Watch has been issued for eastern Oklahoma through
Saturday night given the potential for multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall into the weekend. Latest radar trends/hrrr suggest
developing mesoscale convective system over western/north-central Oklahoma will move east
into the area this morning. Surface based instability is marginal
this far east and storms may begin to weaken as activity moves
into eastern Oklahoma.

Timing of mesoscale convective system/mesoscale convective vortex features will remain a challenge over the next
couple of days with uncertainties regarding precipitation
coverage. However...given the current hydrologic situation/low
flash flood guidance/high precipitable water values...do expected localized flash
flooding will likely develop at some point in the watch area. As
upper wave...currently moving over southern Arizona...shifts east into
the Southern Plains...thunderstorms will likely become more
widespread Friday into Friday night. Cold front will move through
the area during the day Saturday with the heavy rainfall threat
ending Saturday night.

Kept low precipitation chances over southeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas into early part of next week as models try to develop cut
off low over the lower Mississippi River valley. Precipitation
amounts should remain fairly low...allowing region a much needed
drying out period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 83 68 81 65 / 80 50 60 70
fsm 83 67 82 66 / 40 30 60 50
mlc 82 67 80 67 / 70 50 60 70
bvo 80 67 81 64 / 80 50 60 70
fyv 80 64 79 63 / 40 30 60 60
byv 80 66 80 64 / 40 30 60 60
mko 82 66 81 65 / 60 50 60 70
Mio 81 67 80 63 / 50 40 60 70
f10 82 67 81 66 / 80 50 60 70
hhw 84 68 80 65 / 60 50 60 70

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 am Sunday for okz049-okz053-okz054-
okz055-okz056-okz057-okz058-okz059-okz060-okz061-okz062-
okz063-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-okz070-
okz071-okz072-okz073-okz074-okz075-okz076.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...18
long term....18
aviation...21

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