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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
306 am CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Discussion...
hot conditions expected today and Sunday...with near record high
temperatures. Strong high pressure aloft shifts east into
Texas Sunday with upper ridge extending north into the Central
Plains. Gusty S/south-southwest winds increase Sunday afternoon as tight
pressure gradient develops with high temperatures climbing to
around 90 degrees across northeast Oklahoma. Luckily most vegetation
has not cured yet or there would likely be at least a limited fire
threat.

Upper ridge will begin to break down into early next week in
advance of approaching upper trough. Increasing cloud cover on
Monday should keep highs in the lower 80s although still unseasonably
warm/breezy. Cold front will move into the area Monday evening
with scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms possible
into Tuesday with frontal passage. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts still appear to be fairly
light as stronger upper dynamics remain displaced north of the
area. Followed the slightly faster GFS and European model (ecmwf) solution with
frontal timing compared to the slower NAM. Cold front expected
to push south of the Red River Tuesday afternoon with precipitation
chances ending.

Weak high pressure builds into the area behind front by middle week
with a stronger surge of colder air expected Thursday into Friday
as a strong upper level storm system dives southeast out of Canada and
into the Great Lakes region. Below normal temperatures expected
by Friday with lows in the 30s possible across northwest Arkansas
..just beyond the extended forecast...Next Saturday morning.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 87 63 89 64 / 0 10 0 10
fsm 86 60 88 59 / 0 10 0 10
mlc 88 62 88 65 / 0 10 0 10
bvo 86 55 91 59 / 0 10 0 10
fyv 83 55 85 59 / 0 10 0 10
byv 83 58 84 62 / 0 10 0 10
mko 87 60 89 61 / 0 10 0 10
Mio 84 59 88 64 / 0 10 0 10
f10 88 61 89 63 / 0 10 0 10
hhw 87 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...06
long term....12

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