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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
315 am CDT Monday Apr 21 2014


Complicated forecast overall...with immediate short term concerns
regarding shower and thunderstorm coverage today and into tonight.
Light showers are ongoing early this morning across portions of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...with a narrow line of
storms to the west near the Interstate 35 corridor approaching
southeast Oklahoma. Additional development is expected later this
morning and into the afternoon as the cold front nears the area
and before the upper trough moves to the east. The greatest
coverage should be generally south and east of Interstate
44...especially across far southeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas. Rain chances will linger into the evening
hours...tapering from northwest to southeast once drier low level
air moves in behind the front.

Tuesday and Wednesday will feature dry conditions and above normal
temperatures...with a more active weather pattern arriving by
Thursday and continuing into next weekend. During this active is likely that one or more days will feature severe
weather. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday night and into Thursday as the next cold front moves
through the region...with some severe weather potential especially
Thursday afternoon in southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. If
the faster frontal movement favored by the current run of the GFS
occurs...however...the higher severe storm threat would be pushed
south and east of the forecast area.

Thursday night looks dry at this point...but low level moisture
will increase once again Friday and Friday night as south winds
return to the region. Most places will likely remain dry on Friday
and Friday night...but at least isolated thunderstorm potential

Saturday and Sunday appear to be the most interesting days of the
period severe weather wise...with a large trough in the western
United States. Dryline storms will be possible both days in
addition to an approaching cold front. At this point...we have lower
than normal confidence in the greatest risk areas due to
significant and persistent model differences. The European model (ecmwf) solution
favoring a greater severe weather threat in eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas has been the most consistent and also has
support from the have trended the forecast more toward
its solution than the colder GFS solution. Next weekends forecast
is one that should be watched over the coming days.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 76 53 78 54 / 60 20 0 0
fsm 75 56 77 51 / 80 60 0 0
mlc 74 56 78 54 / 80 40 0 0
bvo 76 48 77 48 / 50 20 0 0
fyv 73 52 72 46 / 80 60 0 0
byv 72 51 71 47 / 80 60 0 0
mko 75 54 77 53 / 70 30 0 0
Mio 74 50 75 50 / 60 30 0 0
f10 75 55 77 55 / 70 30 0 0
hhw 76 58 79 55 / 80 60 0 0


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...18
long term....22