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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
302 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014


It is late October but that fact is not readily apparent by the
current temperatures or the forecast temperatures for the next
couple of days. Near record heat prevails today...with at least a
couple of sites likely to be within a degree or two of record
highs tomorrow.

Patchy dense fog could become an issue again late tonight and
early tomorrow...with the biggest problems likely to again be in
far east central Oklahoma and west central Arkansas along the
Arkansas River...and possibly in the Caney River Valley near
Bartlesville as well. NAM handled this mornings fog the best...and
its low level moisture profiles look similar tomorrow morning.
Cross over temperatures are also favorable for the dense fog
development again. Much like today...the fog should be gone by middle
to late morning and provide little hindrance to the warm up. High
temperatures tomorrow should be a few degrees higher than todays
in most spots...despite the flattening of the ridge across the
Southern Plains. A stronger south to southwest wind ahead of a
slowly approaching cold front should more than balance that out.

The front should begin to enter portions of northeast Oklahoma by
midday Monday...which will place the prefrontal warm nose across
the central portion of the forecast area. High temperatures will
be tricky on Monday due to a couple of factors. High clouds will
likely increase across northern parts of the area by the
afternoon...and there is also the potential for scattered morning
low clouds in southeast Oklahoma. In addition...a cooler airmass
over the Gulf Coast this morning will migrate into eastern parts
of the region on the west side of the surface high in the
southeastern untied states. This cooler airmass will
least to some extent...prefrontal warming effects. Despite these
complications...confidence is fairly high that there will be a
zone across at least eastern Oklahoma where temperatures should be
above guidance values. Right appears that will be
somewhere from Interstate 44 southward to about McAlester and

Rain chances will increase Monday night and into Tuesday as the
front pushes through and the upper trough moves into the plains.
Thunder potential continues to look minimal but non zero. The
front should be south of the area by Wednesday...bringing an end
to the rain.

More seasonal temperatures will arrive behind this front and
persist through much of the work week. Well below normal
temperatures appear in the offing for next meridional
flow develops in the plains in response to a deep upper trough in
the eastern third of the United States. It is not out of the
question that we may see the first frost/freeze headlines of the
season sometime next weekend if expectations do not change in the
next week.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 62 90 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
fsm 59 88 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
mlc 63 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
bvo 56 90 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
fyv 57 86 60 79 / 0 0 0 10
byv 59 84 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
mko 60 89 62 85 / 0 0 0 10
Mio 60 87 64 83 / 0 0 0 10
f10 62 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10
hhw 61 87 60 83 / 0 0 0 10


Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...30
long term....22

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