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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
VFR conditions through the period. South winds will increase
this morning...with a few gusts around 20 miles per hour across NE OK.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 259 am CDT Sat Apr 19 2014/

Discussion...

Gusty south to southeast winds will fully make a return today to
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas...leading to even warmer
temperatures than were seen yesterday and a fairly minor increase
in low level moisture. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue to
look good for the Sunday to Monday period /especially late Sunday
night and Monday/ as an upper level trough swings through the
Southern Plains and its associated frontal boundary pushes south
through the region. Severe weather potential does not look high
with this round of storms...primarily due to limited deep layer
shear. Despite the aforementioned front...temperatures will remain
above normal for the most part through this weekend and well into
next week. It could be as late as next Saturday...behind a
stronger frontal passage during the Thursday/Friday time frame...
before near to below normal temperatures are seen in the area.
Regarding the Thursday/Friday storm system...medium range models
still struggling with consistency so will continue to just go with
slight chance probability of precipitation for now...but expect that these values will go
up in future forecasts once some of the timing and areal details
become clearer. Given the expected synoptic setup...severe weather
potential still appears probable somewhere in/near the forecast
area late next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 78 57 78 62 / 0 10 40 70
fsm 78 56 79 58 / 0 10 20 50
mlc 77 57 77 62 / 0 10 20 60
bvo 76 53 76 60 / 0 10 50 70
fyv 74 50 74 55 / 0 10 20 60
byv 74 52 75 57 / 0 10 10 50
mko 77 55 77 60 / 0 10 40 70
Mio 76 55 75 59 / 0 10 30 60
f10 76 56 76 61 / 0 10 30 70
hhw 77 56 77 61 / 0 0 20 40

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Aviation...18