Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
720 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013
Discussion...
The 00z taf discussion is included below.
&&
Aviation...
concerning taf sites ktul/krvs/kbvo/kmlc/kxna/kfyv/kfsm.
Thunderstorms will be the main aviation concern through much of the
period...with low ceilings then becoming a concern during the morning
on Tuesday. Thunderstorm concern will shift southeast toward kfsm
on Tuesday afternoon as the weak cold front slowly slides in that
direction. Ceilings/visibilities will be reduced down to as low as IFR in any
thunderstorms and rain that affects airports directly. Morning ceilings should be in the
MVFR range as well.
Lacy
&&
Previous discussion... /issued 330 PM CDT Monday may 20 2013/
Discussion...
and here we go again...severe storms exploding along front
situated from Osage County to west of okc metropolitan with intersecting
dry line over far SW OK. Storms southwest of okc rapidly became
tornadic supercells and threat of that extends over most of
eastern OK this afternoon and evening. Storms have also begun to
form over Osage/Pawnee and will continue to intensify. Severe
weather coverage will be much more widespread with this round and
all modes again possible.
Concern later tonight turns to flash flooding potential as storms
spread east and likely increase in coverage through the evening
aided by strong moisture transport and low level jet. Models have
remained fairly consistent in targeting an area from central OK
through northwest Arkansas with the heaviest swath of precipitation...though
with some obvious differences in placement of highest quantitative precipitation forecast. Enough
consensus exists with shifting the heavy rain threat south of I-44
by Tuesday that Flash Flood Watch will be carried only for
tonight. Areas to the south will likely see some degree of threat
continuing at least into Tuesday morning.
A potential issue here is a strong piece of shortwave energy that
will rotate around the trough and into Texas/OK Tuesday afternoon.
This may serve to enhance thunderstorm coverage north of the front
and continue the heavy rain potential much of the day in the same
general area that will be targeted tonight. GFS is the aggressive
model in this solution but does have some support from the 12z
European model (ecmwf) and Canadian. Given the nature of the airmass...several
inches of rain appear likely before all is said and done. Severe
weather potential will be focused more over southeast Oklahoma Tuesday
afternoon...the most significant likely just to our southeast.
Boundary should push far enough south to push any thunderstorms
south of the area Wednesday with potential for boundary to return
north Thursday/Friday. Pattern looks early Summer like and with
ridge axis mainly to our west...could see some overnight mesoscale convective system
activity late in the week.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 64 76 57 82 / 80 60 10 10
fsm 70 77 60 84 / 80 90 70 10
mlc 70 76 56 85 / 80 80 20 10
bvo 60 77 50 80 / 70 40 10 10
fyv 65 74 53 78 / 90 80 60 10
byv 64 75 56 79 / 90 90 70 10
mko 67 76 56 82 / 90 80 20 10
Mio 63 76 54 80 / 80 70 30 10
f10 68 76 57 82 / 90 60 10 10
hhw 70 81 63 86 / 70 80 70 10
&&
Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM Tuesday for okz058-okz062-okz063-
okz065-okz066-okz067-okz068-okz069-okz070-okz071-okz072-
okz073-okz074-okz075-okz076.
Flash Flood Watch until 7 am Tuesday for okz054-okz055-okz056-
okz057-okz059-okz060-okz061-okz064.
Arkansas...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM Tuesday for arz001-arz002-arz010-
arz011-arz019-arz020-arz029.
&&
$$
Aviation...30
