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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
307 PM CST sun Feb 14 2016

Discussion...
surface boundary that is currently near a kmlc to kadf line will
sag south of the Red River as we move into the evening hours. There
will continue to be a chance of rain showers and even an isolated
thunderstorm in the vicinity of this boundary as we move through
the overnight hours and into Monday as a mid-level shortwave moves
out of The Rockies and across the plains. May also see a few sprinkles
or flurries across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas late
tonight into Monday morning in association with this feature.

Another weak mid-level shortwave will sweep out of the northern rockies
and across the Central Plains on Monday into Monday night. This will
push another weak surface boundary across the region Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Will keep the forecast dry during this time-frame but
may need to add some small pops as the time grows closer.

As we move into mid to late week, the heat will be the big story as
afternoon high temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above normal
for this time of year across much of the area as the low level winds
become south-southwesterly. Fire weather will be a concern during
this time with all the dry vegetation in place across the area.

The next chances of showers and thunderstorms will be over the weekend
as a cold front moves through the area.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 37 65 44 65 / 0 10 10 10
fsm 37 63 40 66 / 10 10 10 10
mlc 39 65 41 67 / 10 10 0 10
bvo 34 63 34 63 / 10 10 10 10
fyv 31 61 35 62 / 10 10 10 10
byv 33 57 37 61 / 0 10 10 10
mko 37 62 38 63 / 0 10 10 10
Mio 34 61 39 61 / 10 10 10 10
f10 38 64 41 65 / 0 10 10 10
hhw 46 66 41 70 / 50 40 0 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...none.
Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...05
long term....10

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