Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
940 PM CDT sun Mar 29 2015
cold front at 02z extended from north central Arkansas across southeastern OK
into north central Texas. Animation of water vapor satellite imagery
indicates a short wave trough translating through the region at this time.
Local mesoanalyses indicate that the weak instability that
developed across southeastern OK as moisture increased into that region
late this afternoon continues to some extent. 00z area radiosonde observations
reflected quite a bit of cin to overcome for convective
development. Latest model guidance continues to suggest some
precipitation development overnight that region and since we are only
carrying low chance probability of precipitation...going to continue them as is for now.
If convection does occur...steep lapse rates and ample wind shear
will suppport strong/severe storms with large hail. Only minor
adjustments made to going forecast this evening.