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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
340 PM CDT Tuesday Jul 22 2014

Discussion...
middle level ridge over southwest and central states this afternoon
with hot and humid conditions prevailing. Heat index values in
excess of 105 degrees have been observed across much of NE
Oklahoma and heat advisory will continue through 01z. Some short
range model guidance suggests thunderstorms will develop near
front and outflow boundary across Missouri this evening with
northeast flow around upper ridge allowing some to move toward northwest
Arkansas later tonight. Have added a slight chance for late
tonight as a result.

East-west oriented 850mb thermal ridge axis shifts farther south
Wednesday as weak cold front works its way into the forecast area
during the day. This will bring even hotter temperatures to many
areas. However... scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop in the afternoon will bring some relief to northeastern
areas in the afternoon and eventually points south and west. Still
think a heat advisory is in order for parts of northeast and east
central Oklahoma along with continued heat warning for Tulsa metropolitan
as temperatures ahead of storms/front will reach near 100. Frontal
passage will result in a modest cool down for Thursday.

Heat will crank back up Friday and Saturday as ridge amplifies to
the west and low level thermal ridge builds over Southern Plains
with temperatures in some areas again near the century mark. By Sunday
however a significant chance in the upper level pattern will
begin to shape up and bring a much stronger front into the area
Sunday and a return to below normal temperatures early next week.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
tul 76 98 72 94 / 10 30 10 0
fsm 73 96 72 93 / 10 50 20 10
mlc 71 95 72 96 / 10 20 20 10
bvo 71 95 68 94 / 10 30 10 0
fyv 68 90 67 88 / 20 50 20 10
byv 69 90 65 86 / 20 50 10 10
mko 72 96 71 94 / 10 30 10 10
Mio 72 92 68 91 / 20 50 10 10
f10 73 96 72 94 / 10 20 10 10
hhw 71 95 74 96 / 0 10 20 10

&&

Tsa watches/warnings/advisories...
OK...excessive heat warning until 8 PM Wednesday for okz060.

Heat advisory until 8 PM Tuesday for okz054-okz055-okz056-okz057-
okz058-okz059-okz061-okz062-okz064-okz065-okz066-okz067.

Heat advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM Wednesday for okz054-
okz055-okz056-okz059-okz061-okz062-okz064-okz065-okz066-
okz067-okz068-okz070-okz071-okz072-okz074.

Arkansas...none.
&&

$$

Short term...20
long term....14/16

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