marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 345 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
12z global models in good agrmt. Populated wind grids with 30m winds from the 12z GFS until 06z Tue...then use 10m winds thereafter.
Low pres nr 40n70w progged to move NE across the nt1 waters tonight into Fri. Latest sfc obs showing gusts to gale force continuing over parts of the glf of ME. Global models continue to show potential for gales to continue into tonight as the occlusion moves closer and begins to pinch along the coast. Will keep mention of gales for the glf of ME tonight in the upcoming package. Winds slowly diminish Fri into Sat as the low continues to move NE. There may be a brief period of gales for the
Next frontal boundary expected to move off the coast Sat night. Models not as strong with the system as they were yesterday...with most of the global models only maxing winds out at 30 kt. GFS showing a secondary cca surge moving off the NE coast sun into Sun night...with gales dvlpg over the srn nt2 waters and NE portion of nrn nt1 waters Sun night. Will keep mention of gales in the fcst for this package. Assoc low pres moves N of the area sun and intensifies NE of the area Sun night into Mon.
Ridge moves across area Mon and Mon night...with swly flow dvlpg along the NE and mid Atlc coast Tue and Tue night. Used 10m winds for this time period to keep down the sly flow a bit over the more stable nt1 waters.
.Seas...Wna version of wwiii still underdone with seas over the glf of ME. Populated wave grids with 12z wna thru the fcst period. Did adjust seas up 15 percent early tonight...then down to 5 percent later tonight in the glf of ME to account for the higher initial conditions.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...Estofs showing surge around a ft in Cape Cod Bay this evening with strong nly flow.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale tonight. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale possible Sun night.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz905...the great South Channel to the Hague line... gale possible Sun night.
.Forecaster achorn. Ocean prediction center.