Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 232 am EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

There was an ascat pass FM FM abt 02z which had a swath acrs the New England wtrs E of 70w and also W of 75w ovr the sern US coast. Winds were close to GFS 30m winds nr the glf of ME with 25 kt and also invof buoy 41002 ovr the srn mid Atlc which has winds to 25 kt. Unfortunately data did not xtnd further E where earlier 00z ship obs had 30 kt.

A high pres area with a rdg xtnded S was acrs ern PA early this mrng and wl gradually drift ewd ovr the offshr wtrs tda. Mdls rmn smlr with dvlpg low pres movg ewd into the glf of ME late Fri and Fri ngt while intensifying. Assoc stg cd fnt movs E of most of the offshr wtrs Fri aftn. Timing for start of gales occurs by late mrng or early Fri aftn inadvof cd fnt. With stg caa occuring later Fri aftn stg gales dvlp and cont thru Sat and Sat ngt ovr much of the nrn offshr areas. Weakening high pres blds in FM the W acrs the offshr wtrs late Sat and Sat ngt. The strengthening low pres passes E of the offshr wtrs Sat. Mdls are smlr with gales ending for most areas Sat ngt...altho contg for the ern most wtrs into early sun. Wl cont to use the GFS 30m winds with the stg caa during this pd. By sun a high pres rdg movs E acrs the wtrs. Mdls cont to hav probs with the next low pres sys for late sun ngt into Mon. The GFS movs a dvlpg low offshr FM the VA CAPES by early Mon which strengthens while crossing the nrn mid Atlc wtrs. The 00z Gem is smlr somewhat smlr to the GFS with its track. The UKMET at the same time has low pres further N alg the srn NJ and then tracks NE into the srn New England wtrs. Meanwhile...the ECMWF has low pres nr the Outer Banks which tracks NE ovr the mid Atlc wtrs Mon aftn. All of the mdls are smlr with strengthening the low as it movs newd ovr the wtrs. Confdc with these various slns is low...but gales look likely. Plan to use the GFS guid ...and wl limit winds to gale force on Mon.

.Seas...Plan to blend the wwiii/ECMWF wam 50/50 thru 18z Fri while mdls are in close agrmt. With seas that dvlp late Fri ngt into Sat ECMWF wam is abt 6 ft higher with seas ovr the glf of ME than wwiii. Plan to use a 30/70 blend of the wwiii/ECMWF Fri ngt into Sat ngt. Thereaft wl use the wwiii for sun into Mon ngt...altho wl dmnsh seas by 20 to 25 percent since wl not go as stg with GFS winds.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...GFS looks rsnbl with the stg nwly winds fcst to dvlp Fri into Sat conts to show a neg surge. The estof has 1 to 1.5 ft dvlpg along the mid Atlc coast Fri ngt and xpndg nwd towards long isld Sat mrng...before dmnshg late Sat into Sat ngt.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Mon into Mon night. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale Fri into Fri night. Gale possible Sat. Gale possible Sun night into Mon night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale possible Mon. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Fri. Gale possible Mon into Mon night.

$$

.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.

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