marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 750 am EDT Mon Sep 1 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...a trof will drift E across the nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs today into Tue...as a hi pres rdg persists over the cntrl and srn nt2 wtrs. A weak cold fnt will move se over the nt1 and nrn nt2 wtrs Tue nite and Wed...cont se into the cntrl nt2 wtrs Wed nite into Thu...then stall and dsipt across the srn nt2 wtrs Thu nite into Fri. Another rdg will bld over the ofshr wtrs N of the fnt Thu...then shift se across the ofshr zones Thu nite into Fri nite. Another cold fnt will move E and aprch the new eng and New Jersey csts Fri nite.
Models...the Med rng mdls are in gud agreemnt during the fcst prd...except there are timing diffs with the cold fnt for the later Fri and Fri nite timeframe. Gem/UKMET are fastest with the cold fnt...while ECMWF is slowest with the fnt...and GFS offers a median soln wrt to timing of the cold fnt. GFS 10m looks like the most representative mdl soln for the wind grids attm. Am not planning to make any signif changes to the current fcst trend.
.Seas...The multigrid ww3 mdl initialzed well versus the buoy obs earlier this mrng...with the mdl guidance within a foot or so of the buoys. Mww3 and ECMWF wam are in gud overall agreemnt thru the fcst prd...differing by only a foot at times. Will use the wna version of the mww3 for the wave ht grids...since will be using the GFS thru the entire fcst prd.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.