marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 305 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2015
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summer maritime conds will prevail over the wrn Atlc over the next several days with light winds and no sig feratures. Fcst guidance has not changed much over the past few days...so expect new fcst likley to be smlr to the current one.
New model guidance is in fairly good agrmnt on the fcst ftrs. High pres centered near Bermuda will remain stnry thru Wed...then drift W. Next ftr to affect the waters is cold front fcst to movr off the nerw England coast Wed aftn into Thu ngt.
Although winds off the coast hv just begun to incrs...early indications are that winds are closer to the higher GFS 30m winds vs the 10m winds. Wl use a blend of the 10 and 30m winds thru Wed night...then populate using the GFS 10m winds. The UKMET/ECMWF winds support this. Models are in vry good agrmnt on the timing of the front mvg se ovr the nrn waters Wed ngt and Thu...then gradu srift S Thu ngt and Fri. Alhtough the details differ slgtly with the models...they all agree on two wk lows fcst to slide E along this bndry durng this time. The GFS/ECMWF/UKMET support W to SW winds reaching 25 kt at times.
By 12z sun...models agree on taking weak front S of Cape Fear... with weak high pres rdgng E off the Atlc coast and weak low pres sliding E just N of the gf of Maine. Fornt will rnmn neary stnry sun and ngt. To the N...excpet winds to back to S to SW as next frnt appchs.
.Seas...The multigrid wavewatch iii model initlzd well...as did the ECMWF wam. Wavewatch gdnc looks good and plan to stay close to the wave model. The ECMWF wam gdnc is delayed.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster prosise. Ocean prediction center.