marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 809 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Summary...latest satpix and lightning strike products show clusters of tstms across the srn nt2 zones...as cold fnt moves slowly se across these waters. Recent obs agree well with current grids and fcst. The cold fnt is expctd to stall near Cape Fear tonite...drift N Sat and Sat nite...then dsipt early sun. A low pres cntr will move E into the new eng area Mon aftn...then lift NE alg the CST of Maine Mon nite into Tue. A trof will dvlp near the mid Atlc CST later sun and persist until early Mon when is shd be absorbed by an aprchg cold fnt. The second cold fnt will move ofshr late Mon into Mon nite...drift E across the ofshr areas Tue and Tue nite...then stall over the ern ofshr wtrs Wed and Wed nite.
Models...the Med rng mdls are in gud overall agreemnt...except there are timing diffs with the low cntr durg the late Mon into Tue timeframe...and some minor pattern diffs over the ofshr wtrs on Wed and Wed nite. However...the mdls are in gud agreemnt concerning the cold fnts which area the main wx ftrs. Overall the GFS looks gud altho it looks a bit overdone with the southerly flow ahead of the cold fnt in the nt1 wtrs...so will go with an ECMWF/GFS blend for sun nite thru Tue nite but othw will use the GFS 10m for the wind grids. Am not planning to make any signif changes to the current fcst trend.
Seas...will use a blend of the multigrid ww3 and the ECMWF wam to smooth out minor diffs btwn these mdls durg the fcst prd.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters...None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters...None.
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean prediction center.