marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 853 am EDT Mon Oct 20 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Attm I dont see any reason to make any changes to the current grids. Prv grids and associated text fcst appear on tarkget. Will still need to monitor future development of system the middle of this week for the poss of gales...especially in NW flow across gulfstream...and ovr Gulf of Maine.
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Summary...a hi pres ridge will pass E across the waters today into early Tue. Low pres will move off the New Jersey CST late Tue...remain nearly stnry about 90 nm se of Long Island Tue nite thru Thu while deepening...move NE across the nt1 area Thu nite and Fri...then move off to the NE over Nova Scotia Fri nite while contg to deepen. The low will pull a cold fnt E across the nt2 wtrs Tue nite thru Wed nite.
Models...the 00z Med rng mdls are in gud overall agreemnt during the fcst prd...except 00z UKMET is faster with the low later Fri and Fri nite while 00z NOGAPS is slower. 00z Gem is stgr than the other Med rng mdls with the low on Thu and Thu nite. 00z ECMWF/GFS are in best agreemnt...and also look like gud median mdl solns. Will use a 50/50 blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS 30m for the wind grids thru the fcst prd.
Seas...past couple runs of the multigrid ww3 mdl initialized within about a foot of the buoy obs. 00z multigrid ww3 and 00z ECMWF wam are in gud overall agreemnt...except there are some relatively minor diffs that dvlp at times during the fcst prd. Will use a 50/50 blend of the mww3/ECMWF wam for the sea ht grids thru the fcst prd to smooth out the diffs.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...For Tue nite into Wed nite estofs has surge values almost double those of the etss from Long Island Sound to the SW Maine CST. Over the past few runs estofs has backed off on the surge hts here and now is about 1.0 foot which is somewhat underdone.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster Shaw/Scovil. Ocean prediction center.