marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 906 am EDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
No major changes are planned for the morning update. The 06z GFS is close to the previous 00z GFS through about 24 hours...then is slower in moving low currently NW of Burmuda to the N and NE the next few days compared to the 00z GFS/ECMWF. It is also further W with the low compared to the 00z models. The previous shift used the 00z GFS...and this looks reasonable for now. Looking ahead...cold front fcst to move into the waters late Fri night into Sat. The GFS is a tad faster with the front...though not major. Winds will remain below gale with this front. As of 12z observed seas matched up well with the mww3 fcst values over most of the area. The exception is the Gulf of Maine where observed seas are about 2 to 4 ft higher than the model. Will bump up seas accordingly over the Gulf of Maine...otherwise no other changes planned to seas.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
Summary...a weakening stnry fnt extndg E to W across the nt1 wtrs will dsipt today. Low pres will pass E across the far srn nt2 wtrs today into Wed nite...stall just E of the nrn nt2 wtrs Thu into Fri...then move off to the E Fri nite. Another low just E of Bermuda will drift N tonite and Wed...stall Wed nite into Fri...then move off to the E Fri nite. A cold fnt will move E over the ofshr areas Sat and Sat nite.
Models...00z Gem/GFS/UKMET in gud agreemnt thru the fcst prd. 00z ECMWF looks similar to 00z Gem/GFS/UKMET...except it is slower with the main wx ftrs. 00z NOGAPS looks like too much of a broadbrush because it consolidates all of the energy into one low. Will be using the 00z GFS 30m for the winds grids...since it looks like a representative mdl soln attm.
.Seas...The 00z multigrid ww3 and 00z ECMWF wam are in vry gud overall agreemnt over the ofshr wtrs thru the fcst prd...so will go with the 00z multigrid ww3 for the sea ht grids.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... None.
.Forecaster kosier/Scovil. Ocean prediction center.