marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 230 am EST Sat 8 Mar 2014
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Satellite imagery over the wrn Atlc...in particular the air mass product indicating a closed upper level low over the mid Atlc ofshr moving mostly E. The latest mdls showing this closed low embedded in a progressive flow. In the nr into shrt term by Mon mrng a general mdl consensus can be used...then Mon aftn through Wed becoming incrg concern of incrg spread with the mdls...in particular for late Tue into late Wed into Thu...were the ECMWF has a more nrn track through new eng ofshr...the GFS has a more srn stream movement across the mid of the mid Atlc wtrs. The GFS and the ECMWF were fstr than the slower UKMET and can mdls. In looking at the ensemble means in comparing the latest gefsmean and the ECMWF mdls has a track more W to E acrs the nrn canyons Wed into Thu.
At the sfc...stg low over the mid Atlc ofshr wtrs will move E tda into tngt and well E of area by midngt...area of gal;e winds with low tda over the ofshr and moving E of the ofshr this aftn. The nxt area of concern dealing with a fst moving cold fnt through the new eng ofshr Mon into Tue with winds below gale force. Then by Wed bcmg incrg concern about psbl gale winds over the nrn mid Atlc into srn new eng late Wed.
As for seas...wave mdls...the mww3 wave mdl having trbl in the stg countercurrent flow nr the glfstrm with contine to go with higher seas there..the European wave mdl a ltl higher. Then by tngt into Wed leaning twd a blend of the mdls.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...As stg low and its asscod gale winds move E...pos surge in etss fcst...from Cape Hatteras to NJ CST with Strom surge hgts of 1.0 to 2.0 ft dcrg this mrng into late aftn...and below 0.5 ft by tngt into Sat. This pattern consistent with GFS.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz082...Georges Bank... gale today. .Anz083...South of New England... gale early today into today. Gale possible late Wed. .Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz084...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale early today into today. Gale possible late Wed. .Anz094...Baltimore Canyon to Hague line... gale early today into today. Gale possible late Wed.
.Forecaster mcrandal. Ocean prediction center.
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