marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 853 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
Attm only adjustments I plan on making is to increase seas late in the period to match seas to better match seas in the gridded fcst...otherwise no major changes expected.
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14z hi res ascat-a returned S 25 to 30 kt over srn part of balt cnyn to Hague line over warmer glf stream waters...which is about 5 kt hier than 12z mdls indicating. Even 12z GFS 30m winds are only showing 25 kt Max here. Warm front shud lift thru new engl waters this evening and then 12z mdls continued in good agreement with timing of cold front to approach new engl and nrn mid Atlc coasts just before daybreak Fri. Over past few runs GFS has trended weaker with pre frontal winds. Low lvl jet is marginal. But with 12z mdls currently underone with winds in stable waa and also 12z ECMWF and 12z UKMET were consistent in showing widespread 30 kt sfc winds over nern cnyns. So will maintain the gales sern part balt cnyn to Hague line and nern part balt to Hatteras cnyns Fri ngt into early Sat like in previous forecast...with MDT forecast confidence at best.
12z mdls are in above avg agreement in the Med range that cold front shud stall off se coast Sat ngt and strong high pres moves over new engl sun. As stnry front lifts N thru offshr waters sun and Mon...will go ahead and add gales N of warm frnt Mon as it presses NE against high pres ridge. Then like Fri ngt/Sat event will again bring winds up to gale late Mon into Tue ahead of cold front balt to Hatteras cnyns and balt cnyn to Hague line.
12z multigrid wavewatch iii looks in reasonable agreement with latest W Atlc ship/buoy obs over past several hrs. For the Fri thru Sat period am favoring the slightly hier ECMWF wave mdl sig WV hgts. Will do the same for Mon/Tue case.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Warnings...Preliminary. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...gale Monday into Tuesday .Georges Bank...Gale Monday into Tuesday .South of New England...Gale Monday
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...none. .Baltimore Canyon to Hague line...Gale Friday night gale Monday .Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...Gale Friday night gale Monday .Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...None. .Cape Fear to 31n...None. $$
.Forecaster Shaw/Clark. Ocean prediction center.
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