Marine Weather for HS 100

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 841 am EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF are now coming into better agreement with the pattern off the E coast the next few days. Developing low pres currently across the srn nt2 waters will move NE today and tonight. Gale conditions are still expected to develop across the nrn nt2 and portions of the nt1 waters by Sat in the NE flow ahead of the low. This initial low will then move into the New England offshore waters by Sat night while weakening. A second stronger low is still expected to develop near the Carolina coast Sat and track NE into the nt1 waters by early sun. Still expect storm conditions to develop across the srn and central nt2 waters by late Sat and continue into Sat night. Storm conditions are also expected to develop across the nrn nt1 waters by sun before diminishing by Sun night as the low moves NE away from the offshore waters. High pres will then dominate the pattern across the offshore waters through the remainder of the forecast period. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore forecast.

The wavewatch model looks reasonable with the seas and will be followed fairly closely during the forecast period.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...In the wake of the strong second sfc low Sat/Sat nite prefer the higher negative surge fcst by the 00z estofs vs the 00z etss mdl. Further N the 00z estofs and 00z etss mdls fcst smlr positive surges dvlpg along the nrn mid Atlc and srn new engld coasts Sat into sun which look representative.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

Note: the 00z ECMWF is coming in slowly (only in thru sun nite so far) and its wam wave mdl is coming in even slower.

Over the short term...the new 00z mdls remain consistent with their upr lvl fcsts with an upr l/W trof digging into the ern conus today into Sat which wl provide the upr lvl support for a frontal low now over the srn nt2 wtrs to slowly strengthen as it tracks slowly NNE acrs the cntrl/nern nt2 wtrs late today...then crossing the se nt2 wtrs late Sat/Sat nite whl dsiptg. Then in response to an unseasonably strong upr low rotating thru the base of the l/W trof late Sat...then passing NE acrs the ofshr wtrs Sat nite/sun the 00z mdls to varying degrees fcst a second stronger dvlpg sfc low to mov ofshr nr hat cnyn late Sat...race NE acrs the ofshr wtrs Sat nite/early sun...then cont NE of the nt1 wtrs late sun/sun nite. In regards to the fcst tracks of these sfc lows...the pattern gets complicated especly Sat nite when the wave length btwn the two sfc lows shortens. Overall the 00z gefs mean supports the 00z GFS fcst tracks...but suspect that the 00z GFS is lkly dsiptg the lead sfc low a ltl too quickly and then bcms a ltl too fast with the second low Sat nite...but not sigly so. Therefore blv a compromise btwn the rmrkbly smlr 00z GFS/ECMWF fcst tracks for these sfc lows looks best. In regards to the fcst gradients ascd with these sfc lows overall the 00z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF fcst smlr gradients. Therefore plan on populating our short term wind grids with the 00z GFS 10m bl winds for today/tonite...then to better represent the winds that wl dvlp in the strong cold air advection and negative static stabilities that wl dvlp in the wake of these lows wl transition to the mr robust 00z GFS 30m bl winds for Sat thru sun...but with sm sig edits especly over the nt1 wtrs in deference to the 00z UKMET/ECMWF. So the major impact of using these fcst winds wl be to expand the prevly fcstd area of storm wrngs ascd with the second sfc low.

In the long range...by late Mon into Tue as the strong sfc low is fcst by all of the 00z mdls to pass off to the NE...it wl just be a matter of how fast to fcst conds to dmnsh. Then by late Tue/Tue nite as the next cold front is fcst to aprch FM the NW the 00z global mdls to slightly varying degrees fcst a strengthening wswly gradient to dvlp acrs the nrn wtrs. Therefore plan on contg to populate with the 00z GFS 30m bl winds thru Mon nite...then wl transition to the 00z GFS 10m bl winds for Tue/Tue nite.

.Seas...Overall the 00z wavewatch iii looks rsnbl thru Tue nite. But once the 00z ECMWF wam comes in may blend it with the 00z wavewatch iii.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale Sat into Sat night. Storm possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale Sat into Sat night. Storm possible Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale Sat. Storm possible Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale Sat into Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale Sat into Sat night. Storm possible Sat night into sun. .Anz825...Inner waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light... storm Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz828...Inner waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light... storm Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... storm Sat night. Storm possible Sat night into sun. Gale possible sun into Sun night. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... storm Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... storm Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into sun. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale Sat. Storm Sat night. Gale possible Sat night into Sun night. .Anz835...Inner waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Sat. Storm Sat night. .Anz935...Outer waters from Cape Fear to 31n... gale Sat. Storm Sat night.

$$

.Forecaster nolt/vukits. Ocean prediction center.

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