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Public Information Statement
Statement as of 2:20 PM CDT on October 23, 2014

To: family of services/fos/subscribers...NOAA weather wire service/nwws/subscribers...emergency managers weather information network/emwin/subscribers...noaaport subscribers...National Weather Service/NWS/partners and other users...and NWS employees

From: megan Terry service hydrologist WFO Springfield Missouri

Subject: adjustment to services provided to the Springfield hydrologic service area.

...New probabilistic river outlook available...

Beginning 27 October 2014...the National Weather Service in Springfield will implement the issuance of non-exceedance probabilities as part of the current suite of ahps probabilistic outlooks for the following locations:

the Little Osage river at Fulton...KS the Little Osage river at Horton...MO the Marmaton river at Fort Scott...KS the Marmaton river near Nevada...MO the Gasconade river at Hazelgreen...MO the Gasconade river at Jerome...MO the Big Piney river at fort Leonard wood(east gate)...MO

The non-exceedance outlooks will indicate the probability of falling to listed stage levels during the three month long valid time period. This product is aimed at helping decision makers determine the long range possibility of low water.

Advanced hydrology prediction service or ahps is the modernization of hydrology services to improve flood forecasts and water resources information. Graphical information is available on the internet at: http://water.Weather.Gov/ (the web address is in all lower case and once on the web Page you can zoom into your respective county). To find the non-exeedance probability your river of interest and go to the hydrograph Page for that river. Scroll to the bottom of the hydrograph Page and under the additional information the link titled: "how low could the river get?"

Information on the internet for these probabilistic ahps sites may also include:

- graphs showing current and forecast stage heights - graphs showing chances or probabilities of exceeding certain stage heights - graphs showing chances or probabilities of falling to certain stage inflows - a map showing the location of the gauges and fema National flood hazard levels

The National Weather Service welcomes public feedback. If you have any questions or comments about this change...please contact:

megan Terry service hydrologist National Weather Service Springfield MO 5805 west Highway ee Springfield...MO 65802 E-mail: contact.Sgf@noaa.Gov

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