Tropical Storm Bret Forms Near Abaco Cays
The second named storm of the 2011 season formed today in waters near Walker's and Grand Cay in the northern Bahamas. The low, which formed along a frontal boundary that exited the US coast, drifted south towards the Bahamas and became more organized as the day progressed, and was declared Tropical Depression Two at 5 p.m. today. After further investigation by a Hurricane Hunter flight, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret at 8 p.m.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS...BECOMES THE SECOND TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
Currently TS Bret is drifting very slowly south, and if this motion continues for another 12 hours its centre is likely to cross over or through the northern Abaco Cays overnight. However, Bret seems to be reacting to the effects of diurnal minimum along with some dry air to its northwest, making tropical storm winds less likely in the area during that time frame. Strongest winds have been confined to a small area in the NE quadrant, which also suggests that winds may only gust to tropical storm force over the islands.
Tropical Storm Bret shortly after it was named.
If forecasts pan out, Bret should meander in the general area, then begin to slowly move away towards the northeast sometime during the next 24 hours.
While it seems impacts from Bret will likely be limited to some much needed rain and some beach scouring, this unexpected tropical storm formation so close to our islands should serve as a "heads up" to Bahamians who haven't done their hurricane preparation as yet.
Reader Comments
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Bret looked better before he got designated a TD than he did last time I looked - which was hours ago. Let's see if he'll kick it into gear overnight. Hope your islanders stay safe if this storm gets near.
Waiting on the latest update from our local met office.
As you can see, the centre of Bret has been near Northern Abaco for the last 12+ hours.
Same information re location and winds as NHC [of course].
Currently the centre is about 66 miles NE of Freeport, Grand Bahama and 55 miles NNW of Green Turtle Cay, Abaco [I dunno why they didn't use Cooper's Town as a reference; GTC is on the inner side of Great Abaco, on the Little Bahama Bank.] They are forecasting moderate swells and seas at 4-6 feet, gusty winds to 15 kts except in rain squalls. Small craft are being advised to stay in port.
No reports from Abaco yet as to how things were overnight, but so far impacts from Bret don't seem much worse than a slow frontal passage. I hope things remain that way.
Main impacts are heavy rainfall and localized flooding, along with lightning. Last night there were heavy winds and rainfall, things blowing around outside, and choppy seas in the Marsh Harbour area;
driving from Cooper's Town in the north to Marsh Harbour was challenging. They had to slow down because of low visibility and some cars pulled off the road because of difficulty seeing. Fisher described it as "a little mini-hurricane".
Currently as of about 6 a.m. things seem calm, though there are still clouds built up to the NE. There are some tree limbs down.
The stormy weather caused the cancellation of local "Little League World Series" games scheduled for this weekend.
When asked how people prepared for Bret, Fisher commented that people didn't seem to realize a storm was overhead. Tourists were trying to get into the water and had to be warned about the rough water and lightning; residents in the Cooper's Town area [much closer to the centre of the storm than Marsh Harbour] went about their business as usual and were disappointed that the promised sporting events didn't take place.
If you find an online link to this, let me know. Good local report.
Tropical Storm Bret seems to be making a run for hurricane status as it pulls away from the Bahamas. In the image above, there is clearly an eye-like feature, even though the surrounding clouds are not particularly strong. The strongest area of convection is over New Providence and Northern Andros, causing torrential downpours, heavy lightning, and numerous instances of localized flooding around the island. At 5 p.m. the Bahamas Met. Department discontinued advisories on Bret, but advised residents of North and Central Andros and New Providence that they had already issued a severe thunderstorm warning for those areas at 2:30 p.m.
Btw, Baha, what do you think of a storm eventually slamming into the Bahamas this year? It's been a long time since the Bahamas has been directly impacted by a hurricane. Lemme know, thanks!
On the storm hitting the Bahamas / TCI this year, I would be completely unsurprised if it happens. Last year the high was pretty limp and retreated back towards the east fairly early in the season. This year, the ITCZ is still down near 7-8N, and the high is strong [averaging 1032mb] and consistently projecting near or over us. If we continue to see a high setup similar to what we are experiencing right now, there is a very good chance that we will be impacted by at least one hurricane. I'm hoping we don't see much more than we did from Bret, but that's not really what I expect. :o(
You know what the song says: "Batten up your houses now; quiet storm is coming down..." I hope Nassuvians took Bret as the warning to prepare for later that it was....
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