Wind/Hail Possible this Evening Idaho/Montana
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ID/WESTERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212045Z - 212245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF AN
INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD...ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS AS
OF 2030Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT. IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALBERTA...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE REGION PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM IN THE
SHORT-TERM...THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO SHOULD OTHERWISE ENCOURAGE
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NORTHERN ID
INTO WESTERN MT. THE WELL-MIXED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER /30-45
F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS/ AND ASSOCIATED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS FORCING
FOR ASCENT/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO MARKEDLY
INCREASE...A TREND ALREADY NOTED IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. SOME
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/21/2012
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...
LAT...LON 45761576 48141578 48041290 46141061 44111343 45761576
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