The Northeast Weather Blog...

Heavy snow squalls occuring in northwest PA and moving southeast...

By: Blizzard92, 7:19 PM GMT on February 23, 2008

"Afternoon thoughts"
***Update as of 1020am...
Heavy snow squalls have developed in northwest Pennsylvania associated with the passage of the weak cold front. High instibility and high moisture content has developed these snow squalls. They are moving southeast as nearly 45mph. Also there is another more broken snow squall that just passed through State College. This band shows signs of weakening. I expect these snow squalls to make it southeast into Perry County and Northern Dauphin county and then rapidly dissapate. Areas that recieve the squalls may get up to 1-2inches of snow in less than one hour. Also roads may become snow covered and icy. Snow drifting will also be a problem for many areas as areas in the north saw quite a bit of snow. These snow squalls will only build to the impressive snow depths across the state. I am going to make a new blog later today with all of the sections updated including short term, long term forecasts, regional forecast, weekly weather review, and afternoon thoughts. Have a great day!!!

Snow reports so far...
Pennsylvania
Boswell - Somerset County - 10.3inches
Emporium - Cameron County - 5inches
Harrisburg - Dauphin County - 1.5inches
Ashland - Schuylkill County - 1.3inches
Westmont - Cambria County - 6inches
Nanty Glo - Cambria County - 4.5inches
Brookville - Jefferson County - 6inches
Sarver County - Butler County - 6inches
Brookville - Jefferson County - 12inches
Johnstown - Cambria County - 16inches
Jerome - Somerset County - 13inches
Ridgeway - Elk County - 8inches
State College - Centre County - 3inches
Muncy - Lycoming County - 2.5inches
Carlisle - Cumberland County - 2inches

Good Wednesday afternoon!!! Well first off I want to talk about the recent winter storm that moved over the area yesterday. The storm track did go very similar to what I thought it would with it going just south of the Mason-Dixon line and then formed a secondary coastal low pressure just south of Cape Cod. Many areas saw snow or a mix on the onset of the storm by then quickly turned to rain for areas south of the I-80 corridor. But area the north of the interestate saw quite alot of snow. Many mountain locations recieved up to 8inches of snow for elevations above 2000ft. I saw Erie and Bradford came in at almost 7inches of snow. The snow was a very wet snow due to the somewhat mild temperatures that were just marginal for snow. My snow map went exactly according to plan. The only thing that did not go right was I had 2-4inches of snow for Wayne County, in the Poconos, but they ended up seeing over 6inches on the mountaintops. But other than that everything went accordingly. Also a intense deformation band of snow formed and moved into western and central Pennsylvania last night and this morning. Some areas saw 1-3inches with the band. Even here north of Harrisburg I got .25inches of snow this morning from the dying snow band. Then lake effect snow occured today with a favored flow for the Laural Highlands to see some significant banding of snows. Johnstown, PA and Latrobe, PA have been reporting snow all day there. Amounts of 4-7inches of new snow are being reported in that region. Snow advisories were even out for the Laural Highlands. Snow depths across the state are mostly confined to areas above the PA turnpike. There is some building very deep snow packs across the northern third of the state. Many mountain tops and even some valleys are reporting over a foot of snow. This snow depth will be relatively untouched over the next couple of days under the cold northwest flow. And a clipper system will only add snow to those snow depths. Interestingly I heard that the snow depth across North America is the most widespread since 1966. So much for global warming this winter. For seasonal snow totals they are well below in southern Pennsylvania to slightly below to normal in northern Pennsylvania. Well soon is the end of February and we enter our last snowy month of the winter. March can be very snowy in Pennsylvania. The most extreme weather of the year typically occurs in this month in terms of sudden temperature and precipitation swings. As for my long term pattern outlook it still looks very plausible and to appears like it will come to fruitation. Snowlovers do not give up, March can be very snowy. Even in April most areas see a little snow in the beginning of the month, the onion snow.

"Short Term"
Here is my snow map for the clipper for Feb. 29


All right well another difficult forecast is headed our way. An Alberta Clipper is headed towards Pennsylvania. The center of the low will be headed north of the United States in Canada. This will put us on the south side of the storm. Now typically warmer air is located on the south side of the storm and this is the case with this storm. Southernly winds will gust up to 15mph bring some milder air northward into southern PA. But clouds will be around tomorrow and after lows tonight in the teens, it will be tough for temperatures to get near 40 even near Philadelphia. The upper air atmosphere rain/snow line is well too our south. Precipitation timing is a tough call, but by 5pm the snow should have already reached into far eastern Pennsylvania. Elevation will play a major factor in snow amounts across Pennsylvania. And my updated snow map is one of my most specific elevation forecasted snow amounts I have ever made. Generally for every couple 100ft snow amounts will go up 1inch. Anyone above the Pennsylvania turnpike should stay all snow for the entire storm. Areas at the turnpike and to the south will have boundary level temperature issues. But still probably an inch or two will even fall in the northern part of the mix region with a coating in the south. Up in the northern part of Pennsylvania snow ratios of 15:1 combined with forecast .5inch QPF will equal up to 8inches of snow in the very highest elevations of the northern border counties. The laural highlands will also see some substantial snows. The snowpack is going to be quite deep across parts of Pennsylvania nearing I imagine 2.5ft on the north sides of favored snow belt mountains. Remember clippers are difficult to forecast and seems always to have some good/bad suprises for us snowlovers. Dry air will be not too much of a factor, as precipitation should shortly overwhelm the upper atmosphere moisture levels. A major problem with this snow coming is the heaviest will fall around the rush hour evening commute and many problems may occur statewide. So this is my last snow map I will be making. Also when I made my snow outlook map I thought the coastal low pressure would develop off of New Jersey, but now this seems not to be the case as it will develop off of Cape Cod and deliver parts of New Hampshire a hefty 6-12inches of snow. After the clipper Saturday will be mostly dry with a few lake effect snow showers in the north and west. Highs will be in the 30s statewide. Then a slight moderating trend occurs for early next week.

Advisory...
None.

Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
COMING SATURDAY!!!

Current NAO...
NAO...
*Note the positive trend.

Current PNA...
PNA...
*Note the steady positive trend.


"Just to throw out there"

My overall pattern outlook for the end of February into mid March. Finally I think us eastcoast snowlovers are going to get our snow. I am going to write about all of the factors leading to possibly a snowy March. And I will say it again, WINTER IS NOT OVER! Also I believe the 2008-2009 winter will be quite snowy due to the weakening La Nina. Weak La Nina's in the past have created some of the snowiest winter seasons, such as 1996. But anyway I will leave that for another blog to talk about. Back to our winter. Alright the let me first look at the cold air that is necessary for snows. Fist off I will start with the Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns. The NAO which is going +1 postive shortly will be headed towards neutral by the end of the month favoring colder conditions with a more favorible east coast storm track. We really do not want a highly negative NAO because this favors strong high pressures that send coastal storms out to sea in many cases. The PNA though is going negative which does not really favor on the east coast colder air. But the AO is going negative and this is what we look for when Siberian Cold airmasses head south into the United States. Now the pesky southeast ridge which has been pushing this warm air aloft northward during our coastal storms bringing our snow to ice is showing signs of weakening. I have been tracking the strength of the southeast ridge with every storm and in each storm the mix/snow line is falling farther south which shows the southeast ridge is having less of an impact on our weather. The La Nina is also showing signs of becoming less moderate. It still will be moderate through March, but it appears that it won't be as strong in the moderate stage, if that makes sense, lol. When we have a weak La Nina statistics prove that conditions become more snowy and cold in the east. Also a famous quote that winters tend to make up for each other shows that since we have not had a snowy winter so far maybe it will make up for itself in the last March. That is not exact science, but more of a wisetale. But still in past years the statement seems to be true. Also history shows some of the most extreme weather of an entire year occurs in March with many nor'easters occuring in the past. The Superstorm of 1993 occured in March. Even last year a widespread 5-12inches of snow fell across Pennsylvania on St. Patrick's Day in March. Now let me talk about the Global Models and what they seem to make of the overall pattern. The EURO 8-10 outlook shows quite a bit of blocking over Greenland and Scandinavia which favors an east coast storm track. The EURO also has a form of the NAO is shows it becoming negative. The GFS has been back and forth with the overall pattern so there is very low confidence in what the GFS thinks. But overall what I think is that a steep eastern trough will form by the very end of this month with a negative tilt. A weak to moderate high pressure will form in Canada ushering in the cold air, I do not think it will be arctic air or record breaking cold, but it will be cold enough for snow. The negative tilt to the trough will allow storms to track up the eastern seaboard. So for me it looks like a stormy March is ahead. Also long term meteorologists seems to agree with the above statement. Remember this is pretty much our last chance for winter in March. After about the 20th of March winter shortly comes to an end. So keep your fingers crossed. One good note is none of the models indicate any extreme warm up anytime in the forecasted future. So I will have updates on this long term throughout the upcoming week. Below you can find the latest NAO and PNA predictions. If you have any questions or opinions, leave them in a comment below. I am happy to answer any questions and take in consideration different opinions. Have a great day!!!

"Regional Forecasts" (Friday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Clouds then late day light to moderate snow. 1-4inches of snow possible. High 35.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Light snow moving in by 3pm. Clouds. 1inch of snow in south, 2-4inches of snow in north. High 34

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Light rain/snow with some clouds. Breezy (SOUTH). High 39.

4. Central- (State College)-
Moderate snow moving in by midday. Cloudy. 3-5inches of snow. High 31.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
Snow, heavy at times. Cold. Cloudy. 4-6inches of snow, locally higher snow totals up to 7inches in far north. High 28.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Snow with a mix of rain/snow in south. 1-3inches of snow in south, 3-5inches of snow in north. High 35.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Snow moving in after noon. 3-7inches of snow. Cloudy. High 33.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
Regional Map...

Weekly Weather Reviews
This weeks weekly weather review is for the popular internet website, weather.com, and for the handheld winter meter, Skywatch Xplorer 2.

This section will be dedicated to weather stations, weather technology, weather books, weather websites, weather magazines, etc. reviews that I write. I am going to try to write a review once a week on Sunday about some of the above topics. Also I am going to rate each item out of 5 stars. (*****)

Also if anyone else has a topic idea or something to add about my review you can leave it in a comment. Hopefully this will give you some knowledge about all of the fascinating weather accessories that are out there. And maybe you can try some out yourself.

Internet Website- weather.com(***)-
I chose weather.com for an internet website because it is the most popular weather website out there. I will admit though I hardly ever use the site to get information. But weather.com is perfect for the avid weather watcher. Weather.com is based off of the telavision Channel THE WEATHER CHANNEL. The site forecasts weather for all over the United States and across the rest of the world. They also have some expert opinions when it comes to Tropical forecasts. I find though that weather.com handles tropical forecasts better than any other website in terms of information available to the public. Along with the forecasts the site posts and active NWS advisories for areas. Outside plain weather forecasts there is information on climate change, outdoor projects, gardening, sports weather forecasts, etc. With all of the information on the website it is overwhelming when navigating around. Also it takes a long time to load pages. Overall this website is perfect when looking for quick access to the weather and the forecasts are not too scientific, which makes them easy to understand.
The goods (+)
Full of information including travel weather
Great section on outdoor forecast including golf forecasts
Forecasts for the entire United States and some foreign country forecasts
Lots of information on climate change
Very modern looking website full of animations, videos, pictures, etc.
The bads (-)
Slow loading time between pages
Too much information makes navigating the site overwhelming
Forecasts do not have a good accuracy rating, seem to have warm bias

Technology- Skywatch Xplorer 2 Handheld Wind Meter(**)-
Alright well my next review is on a handheld wind anemometer that I own called the Skywatch Xplorer 2. The windmeter is portable and easy to use. All it has is one large button that navigates through the small menu and choice of options. There is a backlight to see the wind/temperature readings in the dark. Overall I am not fond of my wind meter though. The temperature readings are plain horrible. For example taking it outside in the winter the temperature reading does not adjust to the cold winter readings. It takes about 15minutes for a reasonable temperature to be reached outdoors. Even then the reading is always 3-5degrees too warm. When I look for weather technology I look for top notch accuracy. Then since the temperature reading is off then the windchill reading is off. One thing though very nice about the meter is it is water resistent. The wind measurement gauge is a propeller fan, that appears to be very sturdy. The wind measurements seem very accurate though and are updated every second a gust goes through the fan. The price of the windmeter $73.95 at most places. The one I have was ordered from the internet from the Accuweather store online. The Skywatch Xplorer 2 I would consider a good handheld anemometer for beginners and weather observers, but it you are looking for accuracy this is not the best handheld anemometer to get.
The goods (+)
Accurate wind measuremants
Sturdy structure with easy to navigate main, central button
Water resistant
Wind fan that it is protected and not able to be broken easy
Well known company that makes the product
Affordable price
Backlight
The bads (-)
Very poor accuracy for temperature readings
Poor accuracy with windchill calculations

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 25.5inches
Monthly Total... Trace
Daily Total... 2.5inches
Snow Cover... 2.5inches in shaded locations

My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow
Feb. 4.........C-2inches........Coating of Snow/Sleet
Feb. 9.........1-3inches........2inches of snow
Feb. 10........C-3inches.......1nch of snow
Feb. 12-13.....1-4inches.......5.5inches of snow
Feb. 20........1-3inches.......1inch of snow
Feb. 22-23.....3-7inches.......4inches of snow
Feb. 26-27.....C-1inch......... .25inches of snow
Feb. 29........2-4inches.......2.5inches

Weekly Forecast

Updated: 8:12 PM GMT on March 01, 2008

Permalink

Final snow reports...

By: Blizzard92, 8:17 PM GMT on February 21, 2008

Thoughts on February 22-23 storm...
Summary of storm and reflection on snow map- COMING SOON!!!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
My rain/mix line is... Mount Washington, PA - Elkins, WV - Harrisonburg, VA - Leesburg, VA - Baltimore, MD - Philadelphia, PA - Trenton, NJ - New Jersey Coastline
*Note: rain-south....mix-north

My mix/snow line is... Butler, PA - Indiana, PA - State College, PA - Lewisburg, PA - Wilkes-Barre, PA - Monticello, NY - Poughkeepsie, NY
*Note: mix-south....snow-north

This lines are estimates for most of the overall precipitation types. Precipitation types can wander several miles on either side of the lines.

Storm Reports...
PENNSYLVANIA

Western Pennsylvania...
... Westmoreland County...
Monessen 4.0 829 am 2/22

Eastern Pennsylvania...
... Berks County...
Bechtelsville 4.0 815 am 2/22
reading 3.2 530 am 2/22
Morgantown 1.8 700 am 2/22
... Bucks County...
Perkasie 4.0 700 am 2/22
Quakertown 3.1 635 am 2/22
Doylestown 2.9 800 am 2/22
Newtown 2.8 700 am 2/22
Springtown 2.6 700 am 2/22
Warrington 2.5 620 am 2/22
Warminster 2.3 530 am 2/22
Neshaminy Falls 2.0 640 am 2/22
Washington Crossing 2.0 730 am 2/22
... Chester County...
East Nantmeal 2.3 715 am 2/22
Downingtown 2.0 600 am 2/22
Glenmoore 2.0 800 am 2/22
Honey Brook 2.0 740 am 2/22
... Delaware County...
Drexel Hill 3.0 715 am 2/22
Villanova 1.2 525 am 2/22
... Lehigh County...
Allentown Airport 2.9 700 am 2/22
... Montgomery County...
Ambler 3.0 700 am 2/22
Royersford 2.5 700 am 2/22
... Northampton County...
Martins Creek 2.7 600 am 2/22
... Philadelphia County...
rawnhurst 4.0 745 am 2/22
NE Philadelphia 3.3 715 am 2/22
Center City 3.0 800 am 2/22
Philadelphia Intl Arpt 2.0 700 am 2/22

Central Pennsylvania...
...ADAMS COUNTY...
YORK SPRINGS 3.4 742 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
BIGLERVILLE 3.2 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
NEW OXFORD 2.2 947 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
HANOVER 1.3 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...BEDFORD COUNTY...
EVERETT 3.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
BUFFALO MILLS 2.9 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
SAXTON 2.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
WOLFSBURG 2.3 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...BLAIR COUNTY...
ALTOONA 2.4 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
WILLIAMSBURG 2.2 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...CAMBRIA COUNTY...
JOHNSTOWN 4.7 900 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
PRINCE GALLITZIN 3.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
EBENSBURG 2.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...CAMERON COUNTY...
STEVENSON DAM 3.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
SINNEMAHONING 2.3 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
EMPORIUM 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...CENTRE COUNTY...
STORMSTOWN 4.0 135 PM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
PORT MATILDA 2.5 803 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
STATE COLLEGE 1.7 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
PHILIPSBURG 2S 1.3 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...CLEARFIELD COUNTY...
GRAMPIAN 3.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
HYDE 5.5 400 PM 2/22 PENN DOT

...CLINTON COUNTY...
LOCK HAVEN 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
LOCK HAVEN 4.5 400 PM 2/22 SPOTTER

...COLUMBIA COUNTY...
BENTON 1.8 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
PINE GROVE FURNACE 3.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
CAMP HILL 2.4 732 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT

...DAUPHIN COUNTY...
HARRISBURG 4.0 1152 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
HERSHEY 3.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
HARRISBURG 1NE 1.7 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...ELK COUNTY...
RIDGWAY 3.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
WILCOX 2.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
UPPPER STRASBURG 3.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
SOUTH MOUNTAIN 2.6 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...HUNTINGDON COUNTY...
RAYSTOWN LAKE 3.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...LANCASTER COUNTY...
LITITZ 2.2 753 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
LANCASTER 2.2 838 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
MILLERSVILLE 2.1 839 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
GLEN MOORE 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
MILLERSVILLE 1.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
NEW HOLLAND 1.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
SAFE HARBOR 1.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...LEBANON COUNTY...
MYERSTOWN 2.5 940 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT

...LYCOMING COUNTY...
MUNCY 3.0 1149 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
WILLIAMSPORT 1.6 730 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT

...MCKEAN COUNTY...
KANE 2.3 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
CLERMONT 1.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
PORT ALLEGHENY 1.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...MIFFLIN COUNTY...
LEWISTOWN 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...MONTOUR COUNTY...
DANVILLE 2.5 110 PM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT

...NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...
SHAMOKIN 4.5 950 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
SUNBURY 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...POTTER COUNTY...
OSWAYO 1.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...
PINE GROVE 2.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
ASHLAND 2.0 840 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
MAHANOY CITY 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
LAUREL SUMMIT 3.3 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
GLENCOE 2.9 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
MEYERSDALE 2.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
MOUNT DAVIS 2.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
CONFLUENCE 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
SOMERSET 1.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...SULLIVAN COUNTY...
LAPORTE 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...TIOGA COUNTY...
SABINSVILLE 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
COWANESQUE DAM 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
WELLSBORO 1.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...UNION COUNTY...
LEWISBURG 2.5 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...WARREN COUNTY...
RUSSELL 2.0 225 PM 2/22 PUBLIC REPORT
WARREN 2.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT
CHANDLERS VALLEY 1.0 700 AM 2/22 COOP REPORT

...YORK COUNTY...
YORK 4.3 1015 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
DALLASTOWN 2.8 844 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
SPRING GROVE 2.0 110 PM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT
SEVEN VALLEYS 1.8 1058 AM 2/22 PUBLIC RPT

Storm Impacts...
1. Heavy snow in the central to northern third of Pennsylvania, with snow rates at 1inch per hour at times
2. Heavy icing possible for areas right on Mason-Dixon line
3. Long duration event of 24-36hours
4. The storm will impact both commutes tomorrow
5. Snow will fall in areas that have not seen much snow this year, people may need to adjust their winter driving skills

Snow Map...

Alot of different factors were thought out to produce my snow map. Elevation played a key in this storm. I am going on the slight colder side. Also colder has been the trend with the last several winter storms.
"Subject to Change"

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 2-4inches of snow, .3inches of freezing rain
Baltimore, MD- 1-3inches of snow, .2inches of freezing rain
Washington, DC- 1-2inches of snow, .15inches of freezing rain
Wilmington, DE- 1-2inches of snow, .1inches of freezing rain
Dover, DE- 1inch of snow, .1inch of freezing rain
Cape May, NJ- C-1inch of snow then rain
Trenton, NJ- 3-6inches of snow, .2inches of freezing rain
New York City, NY- 4-8inches of snow, C-1inch of sleet,
Poughkeepsie, NY- 4-9inches of snow, 1inch of sleet
Binghamton, NY- 5-10inches of snow
Albany, NY- 3-5inches of snow
Hartford, CT- 4-6inches of snow, 1inch of sleet
Concord, NH- 3-4inches of snow
Providence, RI- 2-4inches of snow, .1inch of freezing rain
Worcester, MA- 3-5inches of snow, .25inches of freezing rain
Boston, MA- 2-5inches of snow, .1inch of freezing rain
Nantucket, MA- 1inch of snow then rain
Portland, ME- 1-3inches of snow
Bangor, ME- 1inch of snow
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Models had some mechanical errors for the 12z and 18z runs. I will post my analysis tomorrow morning on the models.

Here is the 12z GFS...


Here is the 12z NAM precipitation amounts...


After the storm...
Well after the storm temperatures will remain slightly below normal. Most likely they will be colder than current forecasts because of the building snow pack. Remember some areas in the southern part of the state saw 4-5inches of snow already from the clipper. But by Sunday and Monday a relatively weak storm system will head up through the Great Lakes and drag a cold front into the region. Ahead of the front temperatures may get in the forties. After the front colder air builds in. Some models bring in significant cold air after the storm. After the cold air it seems slightly below normal temperatures occur through the rest of the month into March. The models and weather patterns seem to hint at more snow chances and possible coastal storms. I see no real warm spell anytime in our future. Winter is here and is not going anywhere anytime soon!!!

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 22.75inches
Monthly Total... 13.5inches
Daily Total... 4inches
Snow Cover... 5inches

My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow
Feb. 4.........C-2inches........Coating of Snow/Sleet
Feb. 9.........1-3inches........2inches of snow
Feb. 10........C-3inches.......1nch of snow
Feb. 12-13.....1-4inches.......5.5inches of snow
Feb. 20........1-3inches.......1inch of snow
Feb. 22-23.....3-7inches.......4inches of snow

Winter Storm Blog

Updated: 3:15 PM GMT on February 23, 2008

Permalink

830pm thoughts on upcoming winter storm...

By: Blizzard92, 8:46 PM GMT on February 14, 2008

"Afternoon thoughts"
Good Wednesday evening!!! Our nice little snow has ended across most of Pennsylvania. And now the moon is out. So it should be a good night to view the full lunar eclipse, but bundle up out there out temperatures are going to drop in the teens tonight along with some new fresh fallen snow. After every storm I like to do a quick reflection on my forecasts, as it helps me figure out where I went wrong. I must admit my forecasts were pretty right on, except for a few counties. Centre county, Union county, Northumberland County, Montour County which I had in the 1-2inch zone did not recieve much other than a coating. Also in York and Cumberland county snowfall totals were around an inch higher. But other than that I would say my forecast was pretty good. Clippers are difficult storms to forecast with always a few surprises. I have seen clippers be forecast for 3-5inches and only a coating actually occurs. And in the opposite sense I have seen forecasts for 1-2inches in areas and in one case a report of 11inches of snow in the mountain tops was reported. I personally enjoy the Alberta Clippers. They are small storms, but the bring fresh snow and a cold blast behind them. Another about that now onto the end of the week storm. Tomorrow I am writing a new blog and setting it up in my typical winter storm format. But for now I will use the blog tonight. Please if you have any questions or opinions about the forecasts, leave them in a comment below. Well I still think that this storm is going to be pushed south with Pennsylvania in the thick of the heaviest of the storm. Some of the foreign models show the phasing of the jets to develop a strong coastal low, but I do not see this being the case. To me also I think it will be colder than forecast with most everyone above the Pennsylvania turnpike seeing all snow. I think amounts will be moderate to heavy. With the heavy amounts confined to the higher elevations. But this could change as there is a chance this could be more of an ice storm. But one thing I am pretty certain is no areas should see plain rain at any point in the storm. Temperatures will probably stay below freezing the entire event, even in Philadelphia. Travel will be a mess especially Friday. Well that is all for tonight and look for my new special winter storm blog tomorrow. Enjoy the lunar eclipse and have a great evening!!!

Good Wednesday Afternoon!!! Well the snow is falling across the southern parts of Pennsylvania. For now I am keeping my snow map as it looks in line with reports and current observations. The radars seem to be having a tough time identifying the areas of precipitation. The backedge is still in western Pennsylvania thanks to current observations as even Pittsburgh is still reporting light snow as of 400pm. But there does seem to be some weaking with the precipitation sheild on the northern edge. So I will keep monitoring the situation throughout this late afternoon.
Here are the latest snow reports for Pennsylvania...
... Adams County...
New Oxford 3.0 540 PM 2/20
... Cumberland County...
Camp Hill 2.5 502 PM 2/20
Carlisle 1.5 412 PM 2/20
... Franklin County...
Upper Strasburg 2.0 545 PM 2/20
... Somerset County...
Meyersdale 5.2 508 PM 2/20
Boswell 4.7 423 PM 2/20
... York County...
Dover 4.0 600 PM 2/20
York 3.2 548 PM 2/20
York 2.5 402 PM 2/20
York 2.0 432 PM 2/20
Seven Valleys 1.5 533 PM 2/20
Dallastown 0.5 348 PM 2/20
... Fayette County...
Farmington 3.0 500 PM 2/20
Chalk Hill 1.0 500 PM 2/20
Uniontown 0.5 500 PM 2/20
*Note I will be updating the reports throughout the day.

Good Tuesday evening! Well still not alot of agreement with the models for the end of the week storm. The EURO has a warm solution with a primary low pressure heading up the coast, but it draws alot of warm air northward. The GGEM and JMA show a strong coastal storm that brings a dangerous ice storm to most of Pennsylvania after heavy snow. The DGEX, NAM, and GFS show a flat wave along the front that puts Pennsylvania in the heaviest snow path. The low pressure then heads straight out to sea. That is quite alot of different scenerios. Personally my solution for the storm that I think is the most probable is the flat wave. The GFS has been rather consistent with this idea, though it varies in precipitation intensities. The SREF also seems to agree with this solution and that model has high accuracy. I think that the high pressure will keep the precipitation to the south and only let the northern band of precipitation get into Northern New York and southern New England. I do not see the low pressure sliding up the coast at this point. Alot of things are going against that solution. But still my forecast has low confidence in what I think will happen. It can easily change. Though one thing is that in either scenerio Pennsylvania can expect a major winter storm. Now precipitation types and totals is what is going to be difficult to forecast. This is going to be one of the most difficult forecasts this year and many people have different opinions. Now I know on the other hand some people think the JMA and GGEM look to be the solution. But remember the JMA and GGEM have had some of the worst track records in models. So for now I would expect significant travel delays on Friday and Saturday. In my opinion we are either looking at a moderate snowstorm or a significant, heavy ice storm. My gut and instincts tell me more of the solution, but who knows. One thing I can say for certainty is that the models and forecasts will change between now and the date of the storm. As usual you will find updates here on my blog everyday for the storm and during the storm. Have a great evening and I would be happy to hear everyone's opinions on this upcoming storm!!! Enjoy the light snow tomorrow!!!

Good Tuesday afternoon. Well there is my snow map below for the clipper tomorrow. I do think the southern portion of the state will seeing light accumulations, even into Philadelphia. The higher amounts are located in the Laural highlands where there are higher elevations and colder temperatures. Snow ratios will be key in seeing some of the accumulations. The snow will be in the west by morning and in the east by afternoon. It will be a light and fluffy snow. Interesting this morning when the front went through I got a brief snow shower that layed a nice dusting of snow everywhere. Another great sign that winter is still here. Alot of interestings things are going on with the late week storm and I want to see the 18z model runs before I post my latest thoughts. So look for another update this evening and have a great day!!!
Here is my snow map for the Alberta Clipper moving through the area on Wednesday...

Some of the snow amounts are higher due to high snow ratios and the lift from the higher elevations which will produce areas of heavy snow.

Good Evening! This update tonight is for the end of the week storm I what I currently think. It is a difficult forecast for the end of the week storm as every model run seems to show a different scenerio for what may occur with the storm, but as of now this is what I think. A low pressure tracks up the Ohio Valley into Kentucky. This spreads snow across Pennsylvania, but warmer air is drawn northward in the southern half of the state spreading a wintry mess. Then I see a transfer of energy to the coast and this develops the new primary low pressure off the coast. This would keep precipitation as a wintry mix in the east with snow in the north and west. As the storm comes to a close all precipitation would turn back to snow before it quickly ends. This could be a long duration event as the high pressure will keep the storm with slow movement. I see most areas below freezing temperature wise at the surface for the entire storm, maybe in and right around Philadelphia would be rain mixing in. But a couple points I want to make. 1). I do not think this is a repeat of the 2003 president's day blizzard 2.) It would not surprise me if models trend warmer, as this is what I think may happen 3). This could be a very significant storm that lasts a while 4). My forecast for this storm is still very uncertain 5). I see for the most part all of I-95 at this point changing to rain at some time during the storm. So overall this storm bears watching, but I am not too excited yet and definetely not jumping on the snow bandwagon yet. I have many doubts about this storm. So in any case keep checking back here for more updates everyday and if you have and questions or opinions please leave them in a comment below. Have a great evening and look for an update sometime tomorrow!!!

I must say it has been a boring winter for people in and around Philadelphia. Even though we have not seen the most snow around here in Harrisburg. We did get impressive ice storms, a few snowstorms, large snow squalls, and winter thunderstorms. To me this winter has been pretty good in terms of all different types of winter storms. Alot of variety in the weather makes it very interesting. We have had cold blasts and times of warm spells, but not one pattern lasted very long. I think alot of people are dissapointed with the winter, but I must say I have not been dissapointed. The winter was full of extreme temperature swings and winter storms. We cannot just look at how much snow to see how successful the winter was in terms of winter storms, but we must look at the overall extreme patterns of the winter season.

Make sure to check out my weekly weather reviews section below. This week I wrote on the infamous NOAA Weather Radio and the famous magazine Weatherwise. These are two great weather resources to own. I also want to mention I have been documenting everyday's weather in the Harrisburg region for the past 3years, so if you are interested in a storm that might help to forecast a current storm you can leave me a comment and ask the weather for a certain date.

"Short Term"
Well the rain storm is over and yes there were many areas of flooding and increase in creek, stream level stages. For Tuesday it will be a mostly cloudy day with snow showers and flurries widespread across Pennsylvania. The higher elevations may see up to 2inches of snow in the persistant showers. Temperatures will be steady in the low to mid thirties.

Advisory...
*Snow Advisory* for...
Cambria County
Somerset County

*Lake Effect Snow Advisory* for...
Erie County
Crawford County

Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
What a confusing long term forecast is headed our way. I want to say that the model accuracy for the extended outlook is one of the worst I have ever seen it. Every run is completely different from the next. Also other global models such as the EURO are having a hard time forecasting too.

Tuesday night it will be cold with lows in the teens statewide. Again highs Wednesday will be a few degrees on both sides of freezing. Another sunny, but cold day sets up. Temperatures will be 5-7degrees below normal. But then Wednesday night things begin to cloud up ahead of another front. In this early week period a total of 2fronts will go through. The first front with the major storm and the second front Wednesday night. This will bring periods of snow showers and flurries to the entire state. Instibility may be a little higher than normal in the north and west so maybe a few locally heavy snow squalls can form. After this front models begin to great diverge on their forecasts for the end of the week to the point of none of the models agreeing at all.

Thursday the front is going to stall somewhere in the Middle Atlantic states. Most likely I see it stalling in southern Virginia. Along the front several waves of precipitation will develop. All of the precipitation will be confined to the north of the front most likely in the form of snow. Now all of the models hint at a strong blocking high pressure to the north of the front. The latest 6z GFS hints at the high pressure of Pennsylvania which I think is definitely not the solution. I see the high forming over northern New York state. This would bring precipitation as far north as the NY/PA border. I do not see the snow being heavy, but snow ratios may be high as temperatures will be in the 20s. This will be a long event as the blocking high to the north will slow precipitation. The high pressure may be as strong as 1040mb, which is the highest blocking high pressure system we have seen in a long time. The key to this event is where the high pressure sets up. Trends from the GFS are to bring the high pressure farther south, but I do not think this will end up happening. So look for a light snow event, especially for southern Pennsylvania. The higher totals, of course, will be found in the southern Laural Highlands. Then the question now remains if anything further happens with this wave along the front...

Alright well after the first wave moves along the front. The arctic front will drift northward and the high pressure will retreat east. So this basically means it is going to get warmer ahead of the second wave. How warm is the question. There is talk of a major blizzard for the second wave along I-95. I think that is nonsense talk and I see little to no potential of that happening. People are hyping storms once again. But anyway either the second wave will head up through the great lakes, head straight out to sea off of North Carolina, or become a weak coastal and travel up the coast bringing mostly ice/rain with snow in the far northwest. Personally I see the 3rd scenerio being the most logical to chose at this point. The PNA is going to be negative, the NAO is going to be positive, no arctic high to north, AO is going way positive, and no models show strong coastal low. All of these mentioned above lead to little chance of a strong coastal low pressure with all snow. But I will not completely disgard the chance, as the storm is still a ways off. For now I would not expect anything other than some light rain or ice for the state of Pennsylvania. There are hints of Cold Air Damming so this would lead to me to the idea of the ice threat. This all needs monitoring and I will continue to watch the evolving situation.

Now on to my overall pattern outlook for the end of February into mid March. Finally I think us eastcoast snowlovers are going to get our snow. I am going to write about all of the factors leading to possibly a snowy March. And I will say it again, WINTER IS NOT OVER! Also I believe the 2008-2009 winter will be quite snowy due to the weakening La Nina. Weak La Nina's in the past have created some of the snowiest winter seasons, such as 1996. But anyway I will leave that for another blog to talk about. Back to our winter. Alright the let me first look at the cold air that is necessary for snows. Fist off I will start with the Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns. The NAO which is going +1 postive shortly will be headed towards neutral by the end of the month favoring colder conditions with a more favorible east coast storm track. We really do not want a highly negative NAO because this favors strong high pressures that send coastal storms out to sea in many cases. The PNA though is going negative which does not really favor on the east coast colder air. But the AO is going negative and this is what we look for when Siberian Cold airmasses head south into the United States. Now the pesky southeast ridge which has been pushing this warm air aloft northward during our coastal storms bringing our snow to ice is showing signs of weakening. I have been tracking the strength of the southeast ridge with every storm and in each storm the mix/snow line is falling farther south which shows the southeast ridge is having less of an impact on our weather. The La Nina is also showing signs of becoming less moderate. It still will be moderate through March, but it appears that it won't be as strong in the moderate stage, if that makes sense, lol. When we have a weak La Nina statistics prove that conditions become more snowy and cold in the east. Also a famous quote that winters tend to make up for each other shows that since we have not had a snowy winter so far maybe it will make up for itself in the last March. That is not exact science, but more of a wisetale. But still in past years the statement seems to be true. Also history shows some of the most extreme weather of an entire year occurs in March with many nor'easters occuring in the past. The Superstorm of 1993 occured in March. Even last year a widespread 5-12inches of snow fell across Pennsylvania on St. Patrick's Day in March. Now let me talk about the Global Models and what they seem to make of the overall pattern. The EURO 8-10 outlook shows quite a bit of blocking over Greenland and Scandinavia which favors an east coast storm track. The EURO also has a form of the NAO is shows it becoming negative. The GFS has been back and forth with the overall pattern so there is very low confidence in what the GFS thinks. But overall what I think is that a steep eastern trough will form by the very end of this month with a negative tilt. A weak to moderate high pressure will form in Canada ushering in the cold air, I do not think it will be arctic air or record breaking cold, but it will be cold enough for snow. The negative tilt to the trough will allow storms to track up the eastern seaboard. So for me it looks like a stormy March is ahead. Also long term meteorologists seems to agree with the above statement. Remember this is pretty much our last chance for winter in March. After about the 20th winter shortly comes to an end. So keep your fingers crossed. One good note is none of the models indicate any extreme warm up anytime in the forecasted future. So I will have updates on this long term throughout the upcoming week. Below you can find the latest NAO and PNA predictions. If you have any questions or opinions, leave them in a comment below. I am happy to answer any questions and take in consideration different opinions. Have a great day!!!

Current NAO...
NAO...
*Note the positive trend.

Current PNA...
PNA...
*Note the negative trend.


"Just to throw out there"

Alright about the forecast models so far for this new year. They have performed very poorly. I do not really trust any of them. Though the EURO and NAM I see as the best performance models for this winter. It is very difficult to get an idea of what weather patterns we are in for the long term due to the models uncertainty and their various predictions each day. I do not think hyping a storm 5days and farther out is a very good idea. The models predicted long term storms have never come out as planned this year. Hyping a storm out to 15days is just plain crazy as storms predicted that far out will probably not even come to fruitation. Many storms were predicted to come up the east coast and turned out heading into the Great Lakes, so forecasting a storm that far out should not even be done. The thing with long term models is to look for patterns and pattern changes, that is what I look for. I will never forecast a specific storm 5days out or longer. Take the models into consideration when making a forecast but never go directly by them. Use some weather knowledge of forecasting to go about forecasting weather patterns. Then if we see a weather pattern favorable for a specific type of storm then we can start looking into storm chances.

"Regional Forecasts" (Wednesday)
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-
Afternoon light snow. C-1inch of snow. High 30.

2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-
Afternoon steady light snow. 1-3inches of snow is possible. High 29.

3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-
Late afternoon light snow. 1inch of snow is possible. High 35.

4. Central- (State College)-
Snow showers. Cloudy. Cold. C-1inch of snow. High 26.

5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-
A few snow showers. Cold and cloudy. High 27.

6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-
Steady light to moderate snow. 1-3inches of snow is possible. Cloudy. High 28.

7. Johnstown, Altoona-
Periods of moderate snow. Cold. 2-4inches of snow is possible. High 27.

***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
Regional Map...

Weekly Weather Reviews
This weeks reviews are on the famous NOAA Weather Radio and the magazine Weatherwise.

Ok, this is something new I am going to try to write. This section will be dedicated to weather stations, weather technology, weather books, weather websites, weather magazines, etc. reviews that I write. I am going to try to write a review once a week on Sunday about some of the above topics. Also I am going to rate each item out of 5 stars. (*****)

Also if anyone else has a topic idea or something to add about my review you can leave it in a comment. Hopefully this will give you some knowledge about all of the fascinating weather accessories that are out there. And maybe you can try some out yourself.

Technology- NOAA Weather Radio(*****)-
One of the best things to have during times of severe weather and winter storms is the NOAA weather radio. Many companies make them in all forms. I have a basic radio from Oregon Scientific that runs great. It has several options to chose when operating the radio. I use the STANDBY setting which keeps the radio silent and then when a warning is issued it turns on and makes a loud alarm and then the imfamous NOAA voice pops on and reads the statement. Some of the other settings are silent, off, standby, and on. In the on setting weather forecasts from NOAA are repeated for a forecast for your area. The radio needs to be set to your county viewing area. This radio is very useful for when severe weather strikes an area during the middle of the night. The radio will sound and you can listen to the warning and possibly seek shelter. The radio has saved many lives and provides adequate warning time. Also the radio is like an alarm clock too with an LED light that lights up the background. The radio comes with a table stand, a wall stand, and a belt clip to keep it with you when you are outdoors. The NOAA radio runs on 3AA batteries or an AC adapter that is provided. Many schools and businesses also are buying these to get adequate warning time ahead of severe weather. In some states it is mandatory for schools, trailers, and businesses to own a radio. The cost of these radios varies on the type of model, but a basic one like mine cost around $50.00. But these radios may save your life during times of severe weather and I think it is a great idea to have one located in your home. These radios may be sold online or found at your local outdoors store.
The goods (+)
Provides adequate warning time ahead of severe weather
Also warns you of Civil Emergency Messages
Provides NOAA forecasts for your area
Provides climate info for your location
Several settings that appeal to your liking
Backup LED light
AC adapter run
Volume settings with loud alarm warning you of an event
Sounds off for all types of warnings and advisories
Has saved many lives in the Tornado Alley of the Midwest
Handy for local schools and businesses
The bads (-)
Price is a little expensive for the Weather Radio
Difficult setup to set the radio to your county

Magazine- Weatherwise(****)-
For over 50years the most popular weather magazine has been putting out bi-monthly issues of the magazine Weatherwise. The magazine is devoted to the weather with wonderful arcticles on all sorts of things. Though I do think the magazine focuses too much on Global Warming. One of the best things about the magazine are the great pictures. Also once a year the yearly Photo Contest issued comes out and that is the most popular. Most of the arcticles are about weather currently ongoing around the world. I would like it if they talked a little more about the pasts weather. This is a great magazine for the professional meteorologist or the simple weather watcher. I would advise buying one issue before buying a subscription. The price of one magazine is around $6.00. The magazine is full of information and a great item to have.
The goods (+)
Advertisements are all weather related, such as weather equipment and weather degrees at colleges
Great section on weather questions
Wonderful weather review section
Great authors of arcticles
Beautiful pictures of the weather with a wonderful Photo Contest issue
Bimonthly magazine full of lots of information
Goes over recent past months weather with the lower 48states, Alaska, and Canada
Modern weather issues that are mentioned
Great meteorologist forecasting section
The bads (-)
Talks alot of Global Warming and not current weather
Does not look to often at past storms
A little pricy for a magazine

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 18.75inches
Monthly Total... 9.5inches
Daily Total... 1inch
Snow Cover... 1inch

My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow
Feb. 4.........C-2inches........Coating of Snow/Sleet
Feb. 9.........1-3inches........2inches of snow
Feb. 10........C-3inches........1inch of snow
Feb. 12........1-4inches........5.5inches
Feb. 20........1-2inches........Yet to be determined

Weekly Forecast

Updated: 1:30 AM GMT on February 21, 2008

Permalink

Storm summary and pictures...

By: Blizzard92, 8:43 PM GMT on February 11, 2008

Thoughts on February 12-13 storm...
Good afternoon! I am in the process in completing this new blog. This whole blog is devoted to the 12-13th Winter Storm. Check back for more information!

***Update as of 830pm...
Well what a fun weather day it was. I got 5.5inches of snow with a period of heavy snow that had rates near 2inches per hour. I heard a report in York, Pennylvania of 3inch per hour snows with thunder. The highest totals I heard of where in the northern Laural Highlands where up to 7inches of snow fell. Roads are a mess tonight and many are snow covered. I fear that if the roads stay snow covered freezing rain will crust over the snow. I think most of the snow is done over the state with the only snow falling up in the northwest. But later this evening precipitation will fill back in and fall as freezing rain and sleet over many areas. The secondary low pressure is currently in its forming stage. It will ride up the middle atlantic. I still do see a dangerous ice storm over much of the state. I think temperatures will go above freezing after the heaviest of precipitation is over. Becareful out there tonight and for tomorrow's commute. There may be trees down and power outages in the ice. Look for me to issue an update early tomorrow morning. Have a safe and great evening!!!

***Update as of 130pm...
Well good afteroon on this wintry Tuesday. The snow is still coming down in many parts of Pennsylvania. But just recently Pittsburgh has changed over to freezing rain. Temperatures have been steady today in the teens for many areas and this will set the stage for a potentially dangerous ice event tonight and tomorrow morning. Also snow has been coming down harder across many areas and I may need to tweak my snow map shortly. But as of now I like my ice map. Here north of Harrisburg we have about 2inches of snow now and it is snowing heavily. Becareful driving out there. I will have another update in a hour or so.

***Update as of 915am...
Well this is a quick update and I want to throw some ideas out there. First off I like my snow map and ice map and do not feel I am going to make changes. Last night though in the southern MD/PA border counties did get a few inches of snow with a slug of moisture which was a little surprise. Here north of Harrisburg I have .5inches of snow so far with light snow currently falling. Also the RADAR out of State College is down so on the national radars there may actually be more precipitation occuring than is shown. Temperatures are still very cold with current temperatures in the teens statewide. So far for the most part it is all snow across the state with the main slug of snow moving through the Laural Highlands and moving slowly eastward. I still have a tough time seeing warm air eroding the cold air so fast, but as of now I still expect a changeover to plain rain. But one thing is that temperatures on roads and surfaces are in the low to mid 20s so even if air temperatures go to like 34degrees the precipitation will still freeze on surfaces. This is something to remember when it comes to tomorrow morning. Road temperatures do not adjust to air temperatures very fast. So this is morning points and I will have many more updates through the day. Becareful and have a great day!

Interesting weather we have been having with arctic air, thunderstorms, heavy snow squalls, and flash freezes. Last night I got down to 3degrees with a low measured windchill of -12.7degrees. Wow, that is cold. Some of the area schools were on 2-hr delays due to the cold and snow we recieved yesterday. I had 1inch of snow and still tonight I have a C-2inch snowcover. It depends which area around the house you go for different snow depths. Tonight it appears lows will be in the lower teens in the south and near 0 in the far northwest. But clouds are already moved in in some areas so this will prevent some area's temperatures from dropping too much farthur.

Well here is my forecast for this storm. Sorry for the late forecast but it has been a busy few days. Anyway a few points I want to make. 1) This storm has alot of similarities to the Dec. 15-16, 2005 snow/ice storm. I will talk about this later in another paragraph. 2) The current low pressure with this storm is lower than what the models predicted for this time. 3) The air mass currently is colder than what the models made it out to be. 4) The storm is delivering more snow than expected into Kentucky and Ohio currently. Newly Winter Storm Warnings were issued for these areas. 5) The NWS's that cover parts of Pennsylvania do not seem to agree at all with the situtation.

Alright this little paragraph is on the similarities to a winter storm that occured Dec. 15-16, 2005. First off there was a low pressure it went up through the Ohio Valley and formed a secondary low pressure off of New Jersey. Temperatures ahead of the storm were in the teens. It started off as snow accumulating 2-4inches in many spots. Then temperatures begin to rise and sleet fell 1inch in southern areas. Then temperatures rose more and precipitation changed to freezing rain that accumulated .25inch in southern areas. In the north they recieved more snow and sleet. Towards the end of the storm warm-air advection creeped temperatures right up above freezing right as the precipitation ended. Now look at what happened with this storm and compare to what is forecasted. It sure is similar. One thing is that this forecasted storm has more precipitation to work with.

Now this paragraph is on my forecast for the storm. Well the storm comes in to shields with lulls in between. First off warm air advection snows move in for tomorrow morning. Even though the air is very dry right now, it will not take alot to have snow fall tomorrow morning because warm air advection moistens up the atmosphere fast. Then the snow gets heavier throughout the day and accumulates 1-4inches in many spots by 3pm. Then we start to see some mixing in the southern MD/PA border counties with sleet. Then many areas turn to sleet by 5pm. The sleet may accumulate several inches in the central mountains too near 1inch in the south. Philadelphia by now will be seeing all rain. Cold air damming does work its magic for a long time holding temperatures below freezing. Now on recent model runs including the recent 3hr RUC forecasts a high pressure over Canada. If this happens that cold air damming will hold out against the warm air. But I am not sure about that high pressure yet. Anyway by 8pm freezing rain will occur across the southern third of the state with the line slowly inching farther north. Then there is a lull for an hour or two. Then the second batch of precipitation moves in with freezing rain in the southern 2/3rds of the state, rain in Philadelphia, snow near Erie, sleet in NY/PA border counties. This same type of situation will occur most of the night before freezing rain changes to rain in the far south. Then a low pressure forms along the front in the Atlantic and ushers in colder air in the western and west-central parts of the state turning them to snow. And then the snow line continues slowly moving eastward. By noon Wednesday most of the heavy precipitation should be gone. Now with my snow maps below. I like what I have. If I think about tweaking it it will be increasing snow/sleet totals slightly and lowering freezing rain totals slightly. But as of now I am not going to do this. It will be interesting to see what happens with the storm as the models still do not agree. I will have an update on the storm early tomorrow morning. Have a great evening! and becareful in the Middle Susquehanna River Valley where icing and snow combined could make for a dangerous situation. Remember precipitation totals are well over 1inch for many areas. If the temperatures stay below freezing this will be dangerous to say the least.

This blog is also for anybody's opinion or forecast for this storm. Also if anyone has any questions, I will be happy to answer them. I will continue to update this blog for this event as it grows closer. Have a great day!

Radar...
Radar...

Warnings...
Warnings...

NAO...
NAO...

This is my current rain/snow line...
My rain/mix line is... Baltimore, MD- southern Chester County- Philadelphia, PA- Trenton, NJ- Newark, NJ- to New York City, NY.
*Note: rain-south....mix-north

My mix/snow line is... Youngstown, OH- Du Bois, PA- Lock Haven, PA- Bradford County, PA- Poughkeepsie, NY.
*Note: mix-south....snow-north

This lines are estimates for most of the overall precipitation types. Precipitation types can wander several miles on either side of the lines.

Storm Reports...
Ice...
Pennsylvania
... Adams County...
York Springs 0.4 700 am 2/13 public

... Cumberland County...
Camp Hill 0.3 600 am 2/13 public

... Dauphin County...
middlietown 1.0 100 PM 2/13 ASOS report

... Lancaster County...
Lancaster Arpt 0.6 100 PM 2/13 ASOS report
Millersville 0.3 250 am 2/13 public

... Lycoming County...
hughsville 0.3 1120 am 2/13 public

... Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 0.4 100 PM 2/13 ASOS report

... York County...
Thomasville Arpt 0.6 100 PM 2/13 ASOS report
Rossville 0.3 1015 am 2/13 public

... Delaware County...
Chester 0.25 755 PM 2/12

... Monroe County...
Bossardsville 0.30 300 am 2/13

... Northampton County...
Northampton 0.50 1250 PM 2/13
Nazareth 0.30 820 am 2/13



Snow...
Pennsylvania

... Adams County...
Biglerville 4.3 700 am 2/13 coop report
York Springs 3.9 500 PM 2/12 public
New Oxford 2.5 540 PM 2/12 public
Hanover 2.1 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Bedford County...
Everett 8.3 700 am 2/13 coop report
Buffalo Mills 5.5 700 am 2/13 coop report
Saxton 5.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Blair County...
Williamsburg 6.9 700 am 2/13 coop report
Tyrone 6.0 700 am 2/13 coop report
Altoona 5.6 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Cameron County...
Sinnemahoning 2.5 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Centre County...
State College 6.2 700 am 2/13 coop report
Port Matilda 6.0 541 PM 2/12 public
Stormstown 6.0 630 PM 2/12 public
Philipsburg 2s 4.9 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Clinton County...
Lock Haven 5.0 700 am 2/13 coop report
Renovo 3.5 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Cumberland County...
Carlisle 4.2 509 PM 2/12 public
Enola 4.1 526 PM 2/12 public
Camp Hill 3.9 554 PM 2/12 public
Pine Grove Furnace 3.4 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Dauphin County...
Harrisburg 2.0 700 am 2/13 coop report
Harrisburg 1ne 2.1 700 am 2/13 coop report
Hershey 1.8 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Elk County...
Ridgway 2.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Franklin County...
uppper Strasburg 6.0 700 am 2/13 coop report
South Mountain 3.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Huntingdon County...
Raystown Lake 6.5 700 am 2/13 coop report
Huntingdon 3.4 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Lancaster County...
Lititz 1.2 531 PM 2/12 public
Lancaster 1.0 522 PM 2/12 public

... Lycoming County...
Muncy 4.0 749 PM 2/12 public
Williamsport 3.9 700 am 2/13 coop report

... McKean County...
Kane 2.7 700 am 2/13 coop report
port Allegheny 2.5 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Mifflin County...
Lewistown 6.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Montour County...
Danville 2.7 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Potter County...
Oswayo 2.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Schuylkill County...
Mahanoy City 3.2 700 am 2/13 coop report
Pine Grove 3.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Somerset County...
Laurel Summit 8.4 700 am 2/13 coop report
Somerset 6.3 700 am 2/13 coop report
Glencoe 5.4 700 am 2/13 coop report
Meyersdale 4.8 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Tioga County...
Wellsboro 3.5 700 am 2/13 coop report
Covington 2.0 700 am 2/13 coop report
Sabinsville 2.0 700 am 2/13 coop report
Cowanesque dam 2.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... Union County...
Lewisburg 4.0 700 am 2/13 coop report

... York County...
York 1.8 556 PM 2/12 public

... Berks County...
Boyertown 2.0 550 PM 2/12
Fredericksville 1.7 805 PM 2/12
Morgantown 1.0 500 PM 2/12

... Bucks County...
Line Lexington 1.0 430 PM 2/12

... Carbon County...
Albrightsville 4.0 800 PM 2/12
Jim Thorpe 2.0 400 PM 2/12

... Chester County...
East Nantmeal 1.3 815 PM 2/12
East Brandywine 1.0 800 PM 2/12 snow/sleet
West Brandywine 1.0 755 PM 2/12
East Goshen 0.8 740 PM 2/12 snow/sleet
Lionville 0.5 510 PM 2/12
Exton 0.2 400 PM 2/12 sleeting now

... Lehigh County...
Lehigh Valley int Arpt 2.3 700 PM 2/12
Allentown 2.0 500 PM 2/12

... Monroe County...
Bossardsville 5.0 300 am 2/13
Pocono Summit 5.0 1235 am 2/13
Tobyhanna 4.5 655 PM 2/12
Stroudsburg 3.0 800 PM 2/12

... Montgomery County...
Trappe 1.4 800 PM 2/12
Royersford 1.0 835 PM 2/12 snow/sleet

... Northampton County...
Walnutport 4.5 705 PM 2/12
Easton 3.4 940 am 2/13
Martins Creek 3.3 945 PM 2/12
Tatamy 3.2 845 PM 2/12 snow/sleet
Palmer Heights 1.5 400 PM 2/12

... Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia Intl Arpt 0.3 700 PM 2/12

... Susquehanna County...
north_jackson 2.0 535 PM 2/13 spotter

Storm Summary...
Well the storm is now over. My forecasts for the storm were alright. I did underestimate the snow in some areas in over estimate the ice in other areas. But in the middle Susquehanna Valley, where I thought the worst ice would be, did recieve dangerous accumulations of ice. I was very surprised of how heavy the snow came down yesterday afternoon. Snow rates approached 2inches per hour in several locations with thundersnow being reported in York County. Above are the final snow/ice totals from around the state. I did see a localized report of 12inches of snow ontop of a mountain of 2000ft elevation outside of Altoona. But for the most part snow totals were 2-7inches statewide. Ice totals were mostly .1-.3inches, but some locations did report up to .5inches of freezing rain. This was the first major snowstorm for many areas of the year and the first time many people saw snowplows out. Tonight temperatures will plummet into the upper teens to lower twenties creating widespread black ice. But the northwest wind may dry out some roads limiting even worse ice formations. Tomorrow will be a greatly sunny day with highs seasonable. I will have an entire new blog tomorrow with updates on long term, short term, regional forecasts, and weekly reviews on the magazine WEATHERWISE and the weather equipment NOAA WEATHER RADIO. So look for that tomorrow afternoon and evening. Becareful out driving later tonight and for tomorrow's commute as there will be areas of ice. Also my recommendation is to shovel now before the slushy snow turns to heavy ice tomorrow. Have a great evening and enjoy the blast of winter!!!

Storm impacts...
1. Prolonged event with many areas not getting above 32degrees
2. Plain rain will be confined to southeast counties near the Mason/Dixon line
3. Heavy snow accumulations up to 9inches in the far northwest
4. The northwest mountains near Du Bois may see significant sleet accumulations
5. Severe ice storm from eastern Laural Highlands through the middle Susquehanna River Valley through the Poconos

Final Snow Map...
Snow Map...

"Subject to Change"
Ice Map...

"Subject to Change"

Selected City Accumulations for the Northeast...
Hagerstown, MD- 1-2inches of snow, .2-.3inch freezing rain
Baltimore, MD- C-1inch snow/sleet
Washington, DC- Coating of snow/sleet/freezing rain
Wilmington, DE- Light coating of sleet, mostly rain
Dover, DE- rain
Cape May, NJ- rain
Trenton, NJ- C-1inch of sleet/freezing rain
New York City, NY- 1-2inches of snow/sleet, then rain
Poughkeepsie, NY- 1-3inches of snow, 1-2inches of sleet, .1inch of freezing rain
Binghamton, NY- 3-7inches of snow, 1-2inches of sleet
Albany, NY- 3-7inches of snow, 1-2inches of sleet
Hartford, CT- 2-3inches of snow, 1inch of sleet, .25inch of freezing rain
Concord, NH- 3-7inches of snow, 1inch of sleet
Providence, RI- 1-3inches of snow then rain
Worcester, MA- 3-6inches of snow, 1-3inches of sleet
Boston, MA- 2-4inches of snow, .1inch of freezing rain
Nantucket, MA- mainly rain
Portland, ME- 2-4inches of snow, 1inch of sleet
Bangor, ME- 1-3inches of snow, 1-3inches of sleet
"Subject to Change"

Model Analysis
Most models seem to be trending slightly colder. More on the models tomorrow.

Here is the 12z GFS...


Here is the 12z NAM precipitation amounts...


After the storm...
After the storm it appears to warm up slightly to near normal temperatures for Thursday and Fridy with bright, sunny conditions. Then Friday night a weak disturbance moves in with light snow showers statewide. This will cool temperatures back to below normal with many high temperatures for Saturday statewide below freezing. This cold air will set the stage for what could be another winter storm for Sunday and President's Day. No, to me this is not going to be like the President's Day storm of 2003, but none the less it looks like a coastal storm will form. The 3indices (NAO going negative, AO going negative, PNA going positive) agree that there could be a weekend coastal storm. To me this is looking more like a snow event than the current event. But still many questions remain. So more updates on the next storm I hope to have too, but for now I am focusing on the current winter storm.

Please post storm reports in this blog from across the Northeast during the winter storm...
This blog is in progress. Check back soon...

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 17.75inches
Monthly Total... 8.5inches
Daily Total... Trace
Snow Cover... 5inches

My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow
Feb. 4.........C-2inches........Coating of Snow/Sleet
Feb. 9.........1-3inches........2inches of snow
Feb. 10........C-3inches.......1nch of snow
Feb. 12-13.....1-4inches.......5.5inches of snow

Winter Storm Blog

Updated: 1:14 AM GMT on February 14, 2008

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Snow squall update as of 545pm...

By: Blizzard92, 6:24 PM GMT on February 03, 2008

"Afternoon thoughts"
Good afternoon! Wow, what a day. Here in north of Harrisburg we had one of the worst snow squalls I have ever seen. We recieved 1inch of powdery snow in 20minutes. Temperatures dropped in the snow from 36degrees to 22degrees. Now roads are ice/snow covered. I just finished shoveling the driveway and sidewalk. Winds hit a max of 33mph gust from my Davis Vantage Pro2. The squall affected many people across the state. There are many accidents and currently I know of I-81 at a standstill in the Harrisburg region. Below are a list of storm reports across the state. Also I have pictures below of the snow squall that went through my home. They are in chronological order. Starting with before the squall. Then during the squall. Then after the squall.

Tonight winds will gust up to 45mph and there will be areas of blowing and drifting snow. A few lake effect snow showers may also give C-1inch accumulations in typical snow belts. The combined low temperatures of below zero to single digits will make wind chills dangerous and in the the -5 - -20degree range. Becareful if you have travel plans outdoors.

I could not post a new blog for this week due to the busy weather today so I am going to stick with this blog for the rest of the week. I am going to update the long term section tomorrow and short term sections. Have a great day!!!
Storm Reports...
Pennsylvania

... Blair County...
Tyrone 2.0 742 am 2/10

... Cameron County...
Stevenson dam 3.0 743 am 2/10
Emporium 2.4 742 am 2/10

... Centre County...
State College 3.5 744 am 2/10
Philipsburg 3.0 743 am 2/10
Spring Mills 1.2 844 am 2/10

... Clinton County...
Lock Haven 1.5 744 am 2/10
Renovo 1.2 744 am 2/10

... Columbia County...
Benton 4.5 745 am 2/10

... Dauphin County...
Hershey 1.0 745 am 2/10
10miles northeast of Harrisburg 1.0 404pm 2/10

... Elk County...
Wilcox 3.5 746 am 2/10
Ridgway 0.5 746 am 2/10

... Lycoming County...
Jersey Shore 2.0 1008 am 2/10

... McKean County...
Kane 3.2 746 am 2/10
Port Allegany 3.0 747 am 2/10

... Mifflin County...
Lewistown 0.5 747 am 2/10

... Montour County...
Danville 1.0 748 am 2/10

... Northumberland County...
Shamokin 2.0 230 PM 2/10
Sunbury 0.5 749 am 2/10

... Potter County...
Coudersport 3.3 749 am 2/10

... Schuylkill County...
Mahanoy City 1.2 750 am 2/10

... Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 0.5 750 am 2/10

... Somerset County...
Jennerstown 3.1 927 am 2/10
Laurel Summit 3.0 751 am 2/10
Somerset 2.2 752 am 2/10
Boswell 2.0 443 am 2/10
Glencoe 1.0 750 am 2/10
Meyersdale 0.7 751 am 2/10

... Sullivan County...
LaPorte 4.0 752 am 2/10

... Tioga County...
Covington 2.0 753 am 2/10
Sabinsville 1.8 702 am 2/10
Cowanesque dam 0.5 702 am 2/10

... Union County...
Lewisburg 3.0 703 am 2/10

... Carbon County...
Hickory Run 1.0 800 am 2/10

... Lehigh County...
Lehigh County 0.8 800 am 2/10

... Monroe County...
Pocono Summit 3.0 1000 am 2/10 total since yesterday

... Northampton County...
Easton 0.8 235 PM 2/10 Forks Township
Martins Creek 0.8 900 am 2/10
Palmer Heights 0.5 1000 am 2/10
Tatamy 0.5 1000 am 2/10

... Crawford County...
Crawford pendot 1.0 210 PM 2/10

"Short Term"
Lake Effect snow showers will die out by Sunday night as drier air moves into the region. I will not be surprised to hear amounts around 10inches of snow in the mountains total from all of these events/disturbances. Monday too will be quite cold as highs do not get above 25degrees for most areas. Philadelphia will have highs around 27-29degrees. Then clouds move in ahead of the next storm system. More on this storm tomorrow... Becareful if you have travel plans or outdoor plans as conditions will be quite dangerous with the coldest weather of the season. Have a great rest of your day!!!

Advisory...
*Wind Advisory* for...
Warren County
Mckean County
Potter County
Elk County
Cameron County
Clinton County
Clearfield County
Centre County
Cambria County
Blair County
Huntingdon County
Mifflin County
Juniata County
Somerset County
Fulton County
Bedford County
Franklin County
Tioga County
Lycoming County
Sullivan County
Union County
Snyder County
Montour County
Northumberland County
Columbia County
Perry County
Dauphin County
Schuylkill County
Lebanon County
Cumberland County
Adams County
York County
Lancaste County
Erie County
Crawford County
Mercer County
Venango County
Forest County
Lawrence County
Butler County
Clarion County
Jefferson County
Beaver County
Alleghany County
Armstrong County
Indiana County
Westmoreland County
Fayette County
Greene County
Bradford County
Susquehanna County
Wayne County
Wyoming County
Lackawanna County
Luzerne County
Pike County
Carbon County
Monroe County
Berks County
Lehigh County
Northampton County
Chester County
Philadelphia County
Delaware County
Bucks County
Montgomery County

*Wind Chill Advisory* for...
Erie County
Crawford County
Mercer County
Venango County
Forest County
Lawrence County
Butler County
Clarion County
Jefferson County
Beaver County
Alleghany County
Armstrong County
Indiana County
Westmoreland County
Fayette County
Greene County
Warren County
Mckean County
Potter County
Elk County
Cameron County
Northern Clinton County
Clearfield County
Northern Centre County
Cambria County
Blair County
Somerset County
Bedford County
Tioga County
Northern Lycoming County
Sullivan County
Carbon County
Monroe County
Bradford County
Susquehanna County
Wayne County
Wyoming County
Lackawanna County
Luzerne County
Pike County

*Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory* for...
Erie County
Crawford County
Potter County
Warren County
Mckean County
Elk County
Cambria County
Somerset County

Current Radar...
Current Radar...

"Long Term"
COMING TOMORROW!!!

Current NAO...
NAO...
*Note the positive trend.

Current PNA...
PNA...
*Note the trend of becoming positive.


"Just to throw out there"

Also about global warming. Real quick, because I do not like to get too indepth about talking about global warming. Scientists from the Space and Science Research Center and NASA found that there is a distinctive corelation between the Sun's sunspot cycles and the cooling of the planets. If this all holds true by 2020 the sun will enter its weakest sun spot stage ever, which could lead to a dramatic drop in average temperatures worldwide. For more information on this, check it out under Accuweather's Bret Anderson climate blog for the 25th of June, 2007. It is really interesting!

"Regional Forecasts" (Monday)
COMING SOON!!!
1. Eastern- (Allentown, Southern Poconos)-


2. South Central (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster)(my home)-


3. Southern- (Philadelphia)-


4. Central- (State College)-


5. Northern- (Erie, Bradford, Williamsport)-


6. Western- (Pittsburgh)-

7. Johnstown, Altoona-


***Note on regional map, the number equals which region in Pennsylvania. I chose regions with similar climates, geography, and elevation to make my overall forecast for the region.
Regional Map...

Weekly Weather Reviews
For this week I wrote a review on two of my favorite weather books. One is on records and extreme weather and the other is a fantastic books on the history of climate and weather for the entire state of Pennsylvania. Check these books out sometime, because they are wonderful books full of useful information!

Ok, this is something new I am going to try to write. This section will be dedicated to weather stations, weather technology, weather books, weather websites, weather magazines, etc. reviews that I write. I am going to try to write a review once a week on Sunday about some of the above topics. Also I am going to rate each item out of 5 stars. (*****)

Also if anyone else has a topic idea or something to add about my review you can leave it in a comment. Hopefully this will give you some knowledge about all of the fascinating weather accessories that are out there. And maybe you can try some out yourself.

Book- Extreme Weather (A Guide and Record Book) Revised and Updated written by Christopher C. Burt. (*****)
This book is a great books for the avid weather watcher or a true meteorologist/climatologist. This book is an update version of the similar book that came out a few years ago. This book has some wonderful features/chapters along with beautiful weather pictures. The list of chapters are...Heat&Drought, Cold, Snow&Ice, Rain&Floods, Thunderstorms&Hail, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Windstorms&Fog. Also in the back of the book is a section for each state and precipitation/temperature records for major cities in the state. Also listed are state records too. This is the perfect book for finding all and any possible records for all types of weather. Along with it are wonderful maps and diagrams which make it all easier to understand. In each chapter are detailed descripitions of that type of weather along with records for that category of weather. Also in each chapter are interesting blurbs on strange weather occurences such as snowflakes as large as 5.5inches across and tornadoes that went right through the heart of the Rocky Mountains. Make sure to check out this books and even buy a copy. For 304pages of fantastic weather information for $25.95 is well worth the price.
The goods (+)
Detailed sets of weather records
Interesting strange weather occurences
List of record breaking storms
Beautiful pictures
Wonderful appendix of state and major city records
List of useful internet links
Revised and updated edition
The bads (-)
Only fault of the book could be there is a limited section on climate change

Book- The Pennsylvania Weather Book written by Ben Gelber. (*****)
Well I am going to admit this is my favorite book ever. For anyone weather lover in Pennsylvania this book is a must have. The chapters are on... PA landscape and climate, PA history of climates, PA famous weather-watchers, Great Winter Storms, Cold Waves, Heat Waves, Thunderstorms and Damaging Winds, Tornadoes and Whirlwinds, Floods and Droughts, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes, Other Natural Events. In the appendix there are also a list of PA weather extremes and selected city climate information. In each chapter there is a small informative section on how the category of weather works and how it reacts to Pennsylvania's diverse geography. Then it gets into each infamous weather event dating back to the Revolutionary War up until 2002. This book has now been out for a few years. This books has wonderful descripitions of famous storms and even storms that will surprise you after hearing how strong they were. I must have read this book 10times and before each season, such as winterstorms, severestorms, etc I read the chapter to inform myself on record-breaking weather events. Anyone living in Pennsylvania with a fascination with the weather should definitely buy it for the store price of $34.00. It is 270pages long with the author being a meteorologist and he majored in Geography of Pennsylvania.
The goods (+)
Wonderful descripition of Pennsylvania geography
Easy to understand weather explanations
Great information on past storms
The few pictures that are shown are really interesting
List of many city records in the state
The bads (-)
Few pictures, which are only in black/white
Limited section on Lake Effect Snows
Not very up-to-date, written in 2002

My snow totals (10miles northeast of Harrisburg)
07-08 Seasonal Total so far... 12.25inches
Monthly Total... 5.75inches
Daily Total... 1inches
Snow Cover... 1.5inches

My accuracy for Harrisburg snowstorms, 07-08
Date.........Prediction.........Actual
Jan. 26........C-2inches........Coating of Snow
Feb. 4.........C-2inches........Coating of Snow/Sleet
Feb. 9.........1-3inches........2inches of snow
Feb. 10........C-3inches........Yet to be determined

Snow Map
Snow map for 9th-10th of February...
Snow Map/>
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Weekly Forecast

Updated: 8:32 PM GMT on February 11, 2008

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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