The Northeast Weather Blog...

Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
Upweatherdog, this is your storm tomorrow through Thursday. 12-18" of snow, amazing, any lake effect afterwards?

Lake effect will be a part of this snow event. Cold Northeast to North winds wind cause significant lake enhancement over my area. Snowfall by Wednesday afternoon is likely to reach 15 inches in my area. Another 3 to 5 inches of snow is likely Wednesday night. After that, the winds are going to turn west bringing the LES into the Keweenaw. However, snow to water ratios will plummet as arctic air rushes in, resulting in advisory snowfall.

Northeast winds look gust to around 50mph on Wednesday. These winds will create 15 to 20 foot swells on the lake. Since the waves will comming from the northeast, significant beach erosion and lakeshore road flooding is likely in Marquette, whos beaches face northeast.

this is a little off our winter theme but i just saw that the nws is going to change its minimum hail size to issue severe thunderstorm warnings from 3/4" (penny size) to 1" (quater size) here's as Link to check out

Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
PP - no BCS game this year. if they had played quality opponents in the beginning instead of Towson U and California PA they probably would be where Iowa is bowling in the Orange Bowl. I was around a few PU fans this weekend and they all thought PU would get a BCS game over Iowa. I told them No way, but that is a PU fan for ya even with a team that beat PU in state college. Not going to be easy against LSU (middle of the pack SEC)

OK, let's set the record straight after you spew your anti-Penn State hatred.
1. IF Penn State had played higher-ranked teams earlier, say Texas or Florida, chances are they wouldn't be 10-2 at this point, and not be playing in the Cap. One Bowl.
2. LSU is NOT a middle of the pack SEC team, they are the SEC's third rank team, behind Fla. and Bama. (out of 12 SEC teams). Capital One Bowl pits the 3rd place Big Ten vs. 3rd place SEC.
3. On a personal note, Penn State deserves their bowl. They don't deserve playing in the Orange Bowl. I think they would be the better draw against Georgia Tech, with Iowa being without their qback, but that's not how it works.
I just don't understand your jealousy for Penn State. I know your college team is a nightmare, but don't take it out on Penn State. Don't be a hater, just jump on the bandwagon!
Edit: I honestly did not read PP's message before writing this

Blizzard, it looks like this active pattern will continue and favor a giant East Coast Snowstorm sometime in the 15th to 21st of December period. Strong -AAO and a -NAO trending positive as well as an already PNA at that time period, which would have recently trended from its now current negative values. This all shows potential for a large cold arctic airmass to plummet southward out of western Canada favoring a more eastward based trough in the United States. Question then becomes exact placement of the trough and the exact timing and track of the surface low. Right now the GFS is up to its normal track playing games, with should it come into the Great Lakes, or should it stay off the East Coast, but the fact remains, that there will be a huge and potentially significant snowstorm for someone of the eastern areas of this continent, and that could be as far south as Washington D.C., or as far north as the Canadian Maritimes. Now matter the track changes the GFS is going through, it consistently has a 966mb low somewhere up and down the East Coast of North America. Prospects are that within the next two weeks, we could be winding down to a colassal East Coast Snowstorm, perhaps rivaling some of the historic storms of the 1950s or 1960s.

Good evening everyone. I am watching the storm on Saturday. Here in Delaware I am thinking that there may be a changeover due to the warm ocean temps if it is close to the coast. I know that there is high uncertainty at the moment.

Was excited to see the Winter Storm Watch here in Ship this afternoon, I has been thinking this was going to be a cold rain storm, but the excitement has built. I imagine by tomorrow it'll simply be an Advisory though, but Blizz is the expert. Also, the NWS seems to think the winter part of the Tuesday night/Wed storm will be over pretty quick, and makes no mention of a sat/sun snow....

And Bliz you better not be over hyping the next few weeks, I just can't handle it!

it better not be hype!!!!!!!!

Quoting Blizzard92:
*Good evening all!!! Fun times ahead, and it is not hype, lol.


Ugh, I saw that. Personally I think the change should be for areas in the Great Plains and not for the Northeast, but o well. By the way I will send you those links this evening.

i agree. it's tough to get 1" hail in this part of the country. thanks for the links>

jthal - like i have said in the past PU used to be one of my favorite teams, but since moving to the area I have found the fans overly obnoxious. and it has nothing to do with the fans in the stands. its being in a restaurant and having a few dingbats yell out we are Penn State as they run out of the restaurant. That is just one example. It starts to get to you after awhile.

Second, it is annoying to listen to the fans think that PU is better. Joe used to play a great schedule and that is why he used to be so respected. Not anymore. Had they played better quality teams they might have made better showings against the Big Ten's 2 top teams, but instead they got blown out.

So as you can see it is nothing to do with jealousy. Like I said i USED to be a huge PU fan. Yes, my college team sucked this year because they played mostly underclassman. They at least played teams Cal and Rutgers and Middle Tennessee for their out of conference, all bowl teams. Can't say the same for PU.

Quoting Blizzard92:
And finally I think a major snowstorm is in store towards the 17th-20th of the month. The 500mb pattern looks fantastic and this is also when the negative NAO becomes positive (remember what that means from my Middle Atlantic winter blog last winter). Everything is looking in shape for a memorable storm potentially. Get ready the next two weeks will be wild! By the way you do not see me hype up too much, so this is looking pretty darn good!!!

I always see you stay on the conservative side like the NWS. In the 2 years you have been on this site this is the first time I have seen you actually say something like this.

i think Blizz has been hanging around that other site, weathergeek. hahaha

j/k Blizz

Bliz, I am not in the watch. Should I not expect anything?

not at all snowlover lol. the sharp cutoff from WSW and nothing is also the cutoff from precip and no precip haha.

school wednesday pal, do your homework haha

One says nothing, the other says advisory. You guys are confusing me.

blog update ? (also is there warm trend coming around the 20th? or are we set for cold for sometime?

moderate as in rise? or normal? and I hope you elaborate on the upcoming storms this weekend.

Quoting Blizzard92:

Hahaha... Watch it blow up in my face, lol.

I also have never seen accuweather hype to the extent they are doing now. I am sure that some of them are actually hyperventilating.

Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
jthal - like i have said in the past PU used to be one of my favorite teams, but since moving to the area I have found the fans overly obnoxious. and it has nothing to do with the fans in the stands. its being in a restaurant and having a few dingbats yell out we are Penn State as they run out of the restaurant. That is just one example. It starts to get to you after awhile.

Second, it is annoying to listen to the fans think that PU is better. Joe used to play a great schedule and that is why he used to be so respected. Not anymore. Had they played better quality teams they might have made better showings against the Big Ten's 2 top teams, but instead they got blown out.

So as you can see it is nothing to do with jealousy. Like I said i USED to be a huge PU fan. Yes, my college team sucked this year because they played mostly underclassman. They at least played teams Cal and Rutgers and Middle Tennessee for their out of conference, all bowl teams. Can't say the same for PU.

You live in a state that is ultra passionate about football, from pee-wee's to the pros. Of course the state university has an unbelievable following. You think if you lived in a state like Tennessee or Texas or Nebraska that it's any different? If anything, it's worse in many cases! So yes, when you're out in public you're going to hear fans express joy, concern, or anger about their team. I appreciate that you were a fan and now you're not, but I've been a fan for probably 35 years, and quite frankly, the team hasn't changed. They are almost always nationally ranked, they run a relatively clean program, and they graduate their players (btw, #1 in the nation in Div.1 in that category), and their football program has helped the university grow to a top academic institution in the nation. So you can choose to refer to Penn State as "PU" in a derogatory way, but I just think there is more to you not liking Penn State than a few people cheering for their team or the team playing a few soft teams on their schedule.
As far as JoePa is concerned, I don't think he is any less respected now than he was. If anything, I feel he is more respected, and every ex-coach or current coach you hear on TV or read in papers/magazine articles have expressed that.
FWIW, Texas played UT-ElPaso and Wyoming; Alabama played Fla.International, Chattanooga, and North Texas; Florida played Troy and Charleston Southern; need I go on? They all have a few softies on their schedule, and the softies all have a couple of big name schools on theirs.

I do believe that we are going to have a stormy time of it but not to the point they are hyping it. Now what do you see for Delaware and eastern Maryland for the storm coming up tomorrow and Wednesday?

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NOSE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT
WILL BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TAPING INTO THIS SYSTEM BEFORE IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.
BUT THE DONE PART SHOULD BE RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND NOT SNOW HEAVY
AT TIMES FOR US. WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH THE SPLIT FLOWS AND
THIS IS ANOTHER CASE AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH REACHES DEEP INTO THE
MOISTURE SOURCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARRIES IT NORTHEAST INTO
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DARK ON TUESDAY. THE EARLIEST HYDROMETERS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN CREEPING UP FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE
AND OUR MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE ZONE OF TALBOT. THAT WOULD BE
AROUND 4PM TUESDAY. THEN THE OVERRUNNING RUNS WILD AND QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SEVEN. THIS WILL BE JUST
PAST THE EVENING RUSH HOUR BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
PRECIPITATION IN A LITTLE EARLIER AND THAT COULD BE A MINOR MESS
FOR COMMUTERS. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS, THE WILL BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
DELAWARE AND SOUTH WHICH LOOKS LIKE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. HOWEVER,
YOU DON`T WANT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH DEMARCATION LINES THIS FAR OUT
SO BE PREPARED INTO THE EVENT THE TEMPERATURES STUMBLE ON
THEIR WAY TO SAFELY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS WE GET INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE LINE BETWEEN ALL LIQUID AND MIXED RAIN
SNOW AND SLEET WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
DELAWARE VALLEY AS THE WARM AIR BEGINS TO SEEP INTO THE LOWER
LEVELS. ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN THAT COULD
OCCUR IF THE COLD AIR LINGER WITH THE STRONG SOUTHEAST WARM JET. HOWEVER
WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT A TEN TO TWELVE HOUR OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND IT WILL BE A MESS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SUBURBS UP THROUGH THE
POCONOS WHERE ALL SNOW WILL FALL.

THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SECONDARY SMALL LOW FORMING
OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. THE RAPID WARM-UP WITH
THE 80H 60 KT JET WILL HOPEFULLY SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR IN ALL BUT
THE MOST STUBBORN VALLEYS OVER LEIGH AND POCONOS TO PREVENT A
DANGEROUS EPISODE OF FREEZING RAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE NOT HARSH, BUT FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEMS PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD RETURN FLOW...TEMPERATURES
REALLY BOTTOM OUT BUT THAT WILL BE COVERED IN OUR LONG TERM
SECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK GREATEST IN THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS AS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS OFFSHORE. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S AND 30S
ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW
BEFORE MIXING WITH RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO, A LOW WELL OFF TO
OUR NORTH MAY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE
FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT AS THE COASTAL
LOW AT THIS TIME BUT UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS PERIOD REMAINS HIGH.
A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK.

Blizzard (and all!) ~

Here's how bad the hype is... My mom, who never, ever knows what's happening with the weather (unless she happens to open the door and get hit in the face with it) came down for dinner tonight. She opened the door, walked in and said, "There's going to be a terrible storm."

Where? says me. I don't know, says she. But there's going to be lots of snow and ice and terrible cold and the whole country is going to be affected.

I haven't a CLUE where she picked it up - off tv somewhere, I'm sure. But be prepared. If mama is talking about it, I'm looking for my mittens! LOL

Quoting jthal57:


You live in a state that is ultra passionate about football, from pee-wee's to the pros. Of course the state university has an unbelievable following. You think if you lived in a state like Tennessee or Texas or Nebraska that it's any different? If anything, it's worse in many cases! So yes, when you're out in public you're going to hear fans express joy, concern, or anger about their team. I appreciate that you were a fan and now you're not, but I've been a fan for probably 35 years, and quite frankly, the team hasn't changed. They are almost always nationally ranked, they run a relatively clean program, and they graduate their players (btw, #1 in the nation in Div.1 in that category), and their football program has helped the university grow to a top academic institution in the nation. So you can choose to refer to Penn State as "PU" in a derogatory way, but I just think there is more to you not liking Penn State than a few people cheering for their team or the team playing a few soft teams on their schedule.
As far as JoePa is concerned, I don't think he is any less respected now than he was. If anything, I feel he is more respected, and every ex-coach or current coach you hear on TV or read in papers/magazine articles have expressed that.
FWIW, Texas played UT-ElPaso and Wyoming; Alabama played Fla.International, Chattanooga, and North Texas; Florida played Troy and Charleston Southern; need I go on? They all have a few softies on their schedule, and the softies all have a couple of big name schools on theirs.

Why are we talking about football when there is snow on the way? You had April/May-October/November to talk about this non-snow trash. On a related aside: PSU sets up easy knockdown teams for most of the season, plays their required conference games, and in all ways possible "sticks it" to their students. And on top of that, JoePa is old and doesn't use a headset. Big fat hairy deal.

Quoting SilverShipsofAndilar:


Why are we talking about football when there is snow on the way? You had April/May-October/November to talk about this non-snow trash. On a related aside: PSU sets up easy knockdown teams for most of the season, plays their required conference games, and in all ways possible "sticks it" to their students. And on top of that, JoePa is old and doesn't use a headset. Big fat hairy deal.

Just for kicks, how do they do that?? I can't wait for your response!

jthal - the difference with Texas and Florida and Alabama is that 2 of those 3 are playing for the national championship and Fla was #1 until the SEC championship game. They have tons more respect.

btw - big whoop that they graduate football players. wow.

I was a PU fan back in the 70's, 80's and 90's. you may think Joe is respected but the program isn't. go back to all season long and every ex-coach you hear on tv doesn't give PU any respect because of the soft schedule. I couldn't tell you how many times I heard it on tv this season.

oh yes, somewhere in my subconscience there is something else. i will have to search it sometime or maybe go see a Dr. and he can tell me what it is. hahaha

SSA - i just think it is hilarious the PU football fanatics.

blizz- State college seems pretty steadfast on temps warming with a strong southerly flow. Are the surface winds going to be from the east/northeast(CAD) or from the south?

Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
jthal - the difference with Texas and Florida and Alabama is that 2 of those 3 are playing for the national championship and Fla was #1 until the SEC championship game. They have tons more respect.

btw - big whoop that they graduate football players. wow.

I was a PU fan back in the 70's, 80's and 90's. you may think Joe is respected but the program isn't. go back to all season long and every ex-coach you hear on tv doesn't give PU any respect because of the soft schedule. I couldn't tell you how many times I heard it on tv this season.

oh yes, somewhere in my subconscience there is something else. i will have to search it sometime or maybe go see a Dr. and he can tell me what it is. hahaha

SSA - i just think it is hilarious the PU football fanatics.

All top 25 teams have respect when they play an inferior team.
I probably watch 12-15 hours of football every weekend, and I have never heard an ex- or current coach say anything negative about paterno. If you have, please post the link.
It's not important if a school doesn't graduate its players? Isn't that what colleges are supposed to do??

This "debate" has quickly become a race to the bottom. How about we all just agree to disagree, and move on? lol

Does this storm suck that much that instead of discussing it, we're talking about PSU Football? To quote the d-bags from ESPN, "C'mon Maaaaaaan!"

Blizz, what's the word m'man?

Blizzard, I think the big pattern changing of a storm will come the week of Christmas or the weekend before Christmas. As I have stated in a previous post, the 15th through the 21st will present a storm, but where, when and what it gives the region remains uncertain. Reasons to be happy: are, west based -NAO trending positive, -AAO, I mean near -4 from deviation, and a +PNA in this period, all signs of a potential monster. Now track becomes uncertain, but I think it will be a more of a coastal snowstorm, given the west based -NAO which would potentially favor a closer to the coast, but if it is an intense storm like the GFS had according to its 6z run earlier today, then the dynamical cooling will allow even Cape Cod, MA to potential see a blizzard, now of course it is all speculation, but further research will be done, to try and correlate the teleconnections which were favorable for East Coast Monsters of the past.

Nice to see I called my shot with the downgrade to WWA. Still... why even bother with the WSW if you're just going to downgrade 12 hours later? Dopes.

jthal - you are putting words on the screen i didn't write. i never said negative in my posts. please try to control your emotions.

i don't think it should be up to the schools to graduate students. it should be an individual that wants to graduate. now of course there should be guidelines and minimum GPA's. i wasn't a student athlete just a student and the college could careless whether I graduated or not and that is how it should be. they aren't babysitters.

Winter Storm Watches issued by both the Gray, ME NWS office and Caribou, ME office.

Storm day, folks... Storm day.

Well, looks like for me in SW CT. mostly rain after some snow or mixed precip at the start, with no snow cover after the precip stops. :(

PP I agree, they did that a lot last year too, hype a storm up with the watch, when clearly their forecast wasn't going to meet the criteria for one, and then downgrade. I fully expected the advisory this morning. Interestingly, they had called for 1 inch of snow, it now looks like 1-3, that would more than we had with the last snow......we'll see.

Should be fun!

I'm actually becoming concerned for the prospects of a "bust" for our area. Perhaps Blizz can correct me if I'm wrong on this but it's already 35 degrees outside and sunny. I'm worrying that the temperatures will be too warm to support frozen precip even at the initial onslaught of the storm system. Now whether evaporational cooling will take place or not, I'm not sure -- that's why I come here lol, but from my chair and my being outside already this morning, I'm starting to think it's all liquid, all the time.

Quoting PalmyraPunishment:
I'm actually becoming concerned for the prospects of a "bust" for our area. Perhaps Blizz can correct me if I'm wrong on this but it's already 35 degrees outside and sunny. I'm worrying that the temperatures will be too warm to support frozen precip even at the initial onslaught of the storm system. Now whether evaporational cooling will take place or not, I'm not sure -- that's why I come here lol, but from my chair and my being outside already this morning, I'm starting to think it's all liquid, all the time.

Yeah, PP, I was thinking the same thing. But it looks like the weather won't really move in until later tonight after it cools off a bit. It's the warming up tomorrow that makes me want to call bust for sure though. I mean, whatever happens overnight will be gone with a high of 40 tomorrow afternoon and 8-10 hours of rain tomorrow morning. No time to enjoy the snow that may fall later tonight, if it even falls at all.

I'm expecting a little slug of snow here in Eastern Mass,but the ocean is still pretty warm and the winds are going to be e then se,so
I expect a pretty quick change over after 2 or 3 inches.

From the HPC prelim discussion on the possible weekend and mid (next) week systems:

THE SYSTEM SCOOTING UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MID PERIOD IS NOT IN A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC LOCATION TO BE MUCH OF A RAIN OR SNOW THREAT FOR THE MID ATLANTIC OR NORTHEAST...BUT THE
MODELS...ECMWF INCLUDED...HAVE CHOKED A COUPLE TIMES THIS SEASON WITH UNDERPLAYING SUCH DEVELOPMENT. PERHAPS THE BIGGER WORRY IS
WHAT BECOMES OF THE WAVE CROSSING THE GULF STATES AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE SYNOPTIC EARMARKINGS TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST LATE DAY 7 THROUGH DAY 8. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TARGETING DECEMBER
16 FOR SOME TIME NOW AS A MAJOR CYCLONIC EVENT FOR THE EAST...SO THERE MUST BE A FAIRLY ROBUST SIGNAL.

I for one hope it doesn't turn out to be a sleet and freezing rain event overnight.

Rasp. One of things you have to remember about Penn State in your area is the Hershey Medical Center. All Penn State fans and they even have the Life Lion.

GFS says a monster on its 6z run, for the 22nd of December, but yet again the period of the 15th through the 21st could signal a single monster storm or two more weaker storms. Yet a 980mb is not a weak storm, but compared to the monster the GFS has at hour 348 it is weaker. A lot has to be considered, since that teleconnections are signaling this period for a potential monster, given the highly -AAO, -NAO changing to positive values, and a +PNA at that time. Storms of mega magnitudes occur on a pattern change, where an Arctic airmass moves into the region and then signaled by warmer air which arrives a day or several days afterwards. THis is a period for a beast.

very true PennCent. Like I have said, I am still a PU fan, but dealing with the obnoxiousness of the fanatics gets a bit too much at times. Not being an alum I guess I am not as hardnosed. No matter what any team I root for I try to be a realist.

The temp is already 43F here. The storm will need to bring in some cold air for my area to see any accumulating snow. I hope its not ice as well. Not with PennDot running the roads. No thanks. Now if I was in MD or NY thats a different story.

Yeah, Im thinking this becomes more a localized flood threat than a snow/ice threat.

Sorry, not the AAO, the AO is extremely negative. 12z GFS has the storm on the 15th and 16th instead of the 22nd, like the 6z GFS had. Question is, will a storm actually come and where and when will it happen and occur. Right now I can with as much certainty as a meteorology nut like myself can within 14 days of a certain event. Which is probably 5% at the most. The GFS, not matter the solution, has a sub 975mb low sitting over Cape Cod, MA or just east of Cape Cod, MA. The teleconnections of the -NAO trending positive, or still negative though, the +PNA at this time period and -AO all suggest that a large ridge will develop across the western US, amplifying trough for the eastern 2/3rds of the country, potential blocking and deep cold arctic air intrusion underway. Also a pattern change to a warmer pattern also signifies, that within 10-14 days, the East Coast could be looking at a collasal snowstorm taking shape first in the Gulf of Mexico and moving up the Eastern Seaboard at a slower pace then previous storms, and a much more amplified pattern. Questions will always remain, but this storm looks like the storm of the century type event for much of the East Coast. Coastal locations probably will most likely receive a mix of rain and snow, due to the warmer compared to average sea surface temperatures.

so much for a cloud filled day it's pretty nice out. This storm has bust written all over it, Blizz got hyped lol. Once the clouds move in temps will fall only a few degrees, I doubt most valleys will even see the freezing mark tonight.