# The Northeast Weather Blog...

Continued ring of fire pattern across Northeast...
 Posted by: Zachary Labe, 7:56 PM GMT on July 20, 2010 +1
There are many whom are quick to comment on the state of modern education. Unfortunately many of those are politicians with little experience in modern education outside of personal anecdotes. As a current student, I experience the differences in education on a nearly daily bases. While people are quick to assume teenagers have little to say other than complaints about school, constructive critiscm often occurs in many of my honors classes. For instance in my Calculus class this past year, we often recognized the changing math program for younger students learning the simple multiplication and division tables. There are new methods to solving for instance 24*36= instead of the old fashioned method. One method even makes fancy boxes in a latice method, which takes much longer, but is simpler. The problem is in higher mathematics, you need to be able to solve problems like this in a quick manner while understanding the process. Also even in division, long division is non-existant. Another method is used, again simpler, but defeats the purposing of understanding how division works. When these students reaching PreCalculus and Calculus, they will suffer many setbacks in solving problems and doing simple things like finding the derivative or antiderivative in Calculus. But I am not here to dwell on the math program... I think another issue is statistics. It is no longer considered important to remember dates. Example A: Few modern students would be able to tell you the year of the moon landing, 1969. Dates and extraneous facts are considered unimportant. This poses problems not only in understanding the foundation of world cultures, but also using science. Every day, I use a many statistics to create forecasts and new theories on the evolution of climate. Records and statistics are critical to the success of understanding and applying meteorology, but also just general science. Science is simply a subject to explain how the world revolves therefore having applications in all subjects. 2010 is an important year for records as the following will note, and unfortunately the application of statistics, records, and dates is a declining cause in modern education.

2010 has been a remarkable year weatherwise on a global perspective. Recovering from one of the strongest El Ninos since 1998, average temperatures worldwide have been starkly mild, even hot! There will be many quick to point to anthropogenic global warming, but a quick rebuttal will surmise in response. As supposed to be in all instances, climate is measured over a long period of time while the term weather designates the short term. The official American Meteorological Society defines climate as...

The slowly varying aspects of the atmosphereâ€“hydrosphereâ€“land surface system. It is typically characterized in terms of suitable averages of the climate system over periods of a month or more, taking into consideration the variability in time of these averaged quantities. Climatic classifications include the spatial variation of these time-averaged variables. Beginning with the view of local climate as little more than the annual course of long-term averages of surface temperature and precipitation, the concept of climate has broadened and evolved in recent decades in response to the increased understanding of the underlying processes that determine climate and its variability.

2010 has proven its share of records including eight extreme global high temperatures with a recent one occuring for the new hottest temperature ever recorded in Russia (111F). Also impressive upper level 850mb thermals have proven record values with several days this year ranking as some of the hottest average temperatures on a global perspective ever recorded. From record heatwaves in July in Africa to record high temperatures across Canada during January-March, this year has proven to be very mild. The following are global sea and surface temperatures during the last three months...

April...

May...

June...

As noted, primary concentrations exceed normal values across the globe both and on land and sea. But it is important to note as with 1998, that El Nino plays an important role is this above normal warmth. Typically El Nino years provide warmer than normal temperatures on a widespread level to many locations. Now many in the Northeast are quick to point to the record snowy year for many major metropolitan regions. This is the same time where the El Nino reached its max anomalies in the equitorial Pacific which rate in the strong category...
Nino 4 ~(+1.5C)
Nino 3.4 ~(+2.0C)
Nino 3 ~(+1.6F)
Nino 1+2 ~(+1.2C)
While yes this wintry proved to serve extraordinary snow values for many locales, actual surface temperatures were not cold. A well thought idea in forecasting winters is cold=dry and mild=snowy and/or rainy.

If it had not been for a record negative NAO and Ao, this past winter would have been a rainy disaster for the entire Northeast. I am certain the upstream blocking in combination with the split jet from El Nino allowed for the record snowstorms. It takes all parts to make a puzzle, therefore with upstream blocking and no split jet, it would have been dry and cold. But if we no upstream blocking with a split jet, then it would have been rainy and very mild, which is typical of that of El Ninos. As the El Nino peaked in February or so, downstream global effects are usually felt several weeks later. Therefore while positive anomalies are peaking, effects globally will not occur for a bit of time. This explains the very mild March globally. Since March the northern Middle Atlantic has featured above normal temperatures and near record values at that. Again this all pinpoints to the reasoning for very mild temperatures worldwide, which are also evident during the strong El Nino of 1998. But rapid changes in the southern oscillation are allowing for a growing La Nina. Yes SST anomalies have already dipped into the La Nina region, but it will not be designated as a La Nina until those values hold for three months. Using a few extropolation methods, a moderate La Nina is very well possible by meteorological Fall...

The CFS is already predicting a strong La Nina by winter. Rapid swings from strong El Ninos to strong La Ninas occur less than 20% of the time, so this would be a rare instance. But climate forecast models typically overestimate SST values, so likely a modified prediction would be a better forecast. Essentially in laymen's terms, this means the above normal global surface temperatures will be declining during the next few months. In fact cooler temperatures than normal are likely to develop over the Pacific northwest as the PDO drops back to well into negative values again. Also Europe can expect a rapid decline in temperatures in the coming months. Also with this recent Nina development, the 2010 hurricane season will likely be a bit more benign than originally expected. Unfortunately it only takes one hurricane to make a season (1992-Andrew).

Closer to home in the northern Middle Atlantic, above normal conditions will be persisting through at least the next two to three weeks. Early indications from the ECMWF were showing a cool down by the end of July. But recent prognostics indicate a growing abnormal >588mb ridge stretched from the east to west coasts of the US during the end of the July time period...

The defining difference in the coming warmth, will be that the bubble of heat will be displaced to the south of the Middle Atlantic. This positions the Maryland/Pennsylvania/Delaware region in the ring of fire. Essentially this means series of warm fronts and decaying cold fronts will move through the region with a series of MCS and/or convective events. While precipitation will be spotty, diurnal chances of thunderstorms will be on the increase. 7/20/10 12utc GFS even prints 2.8in of QPF for KMDT during the next sixteen days. Drought conditions will be waning regionwide fortunately.

Now in the shorter term... A cold front will slowly slide south over Pennsylvania during Tuesday night and Wednesday. But little cooler air is expected with H85 heights remaining near 20C. This front will meander over the northern Middle Atlantic through the entire week creating almost a daily threat of showers and thunderstorms. But several days will have high probabilities than others. Wednesday will feature mild temperatures with dewpoints creeping into the low to mid 70s as far north as interstate 80. Increasing precipitate waters near 2.2in will allow for a steady stream of thunderstorms during the day Wednesday as a weakening MCV moves into western Pennsylvania during the early morning hours. This complex will allow for several outflow boundaries to form across the central Alleghanies creating a catalyst for afternoon convection. With a close proximity to the right front entrance of the low level jet, shear values near 40-50 knots 0-6km aloft will create the threat of damaging winds. Several hundred helicity values will also create the potential for a bit of rotating winds aloft. Therefore the threat of supercells is highly possible during the day. GFS instability thermodynamics indicate CAPE values of 2000-2500j/kg to form in an instability axis from central Maryland up through the eastern half of Pennsylvania. Morning debris clouds may limit instability for areas farther west. The cold front will slowly sink south, so therefore severe convection will likely be in the morning and early to mid afternoon with a high threat towards evening over Maryland and Delaware. Thunderstorms will form in small broken line segments and/or supercells. Damaging winds is the primary threat. A few higher echo tops may tap into the freezing level creating large hail, but the potential remains slightly low.

By Thursday the cold front will sink southward giving way to partly cloudy skies for Pennsylvania with the more humid conditions over southern Maryland and southern Delaware with the threat of diurnal convection in those southern areas. But the front will begin to lift northward by Thursday night and Friday as a growing heat ridge of thermals greater than a 588mb thickness develop over the central Plains. The chance of thunderstorms will begin to increase after 10pm over northern areas as a few nocturnal thunderstorms develop along the now warm front. With a close proximity quasi-stationary front, thunderstorms will be possible Friday through Saturday. Towards Sunday a rapid moving cold front through the Great Lakes will promote more convection Sunday afternoon with another threat of severe weather with steep lapse rates and high shear values. Details though will be sorted out closer to the date.

In quick summary...

Wednesday- Widespread highs in the upper 80s with high humidity and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorms will be possible with some severe weather likely with damaging winds as the primary threat.

Thursday- Partly cloudy skies with a chance of isolated thunderstorms over southern areas in Maryland and Delaware with clear skies over Pennsylvania. Highs will be in the lower 90s.

Friday- Partly to mostly cloudy skies with increasing humidity and higher dewpoints. Heat indices will approach 105-110F for major metropolitan regions with surface temperatures in the low to mid 90s for lower elevations. A chance of thunderstorms will also exist along the stalled front over the northern Middle Atlantic.

Saturday- Partly cloudy skies with a chance of thunderstorms all day as highs approach 90F for many areas.

Sunday- An approaching cold front will bring afternoon thunderstorms and a threat of severe weather. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

"Here north of Harrisburg 2010 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 9
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 9
Total Thunderstorms- 14

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 3
Flood Warnings- 1
Monthly Precipitation- 5.19inches
Yearly Precipitation- 22.29inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Excessive Heat Watches- 1
Excessive Heat Warnings- 1
90degree days- 25
Highest Temperature 101F (x2)
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 51. Hoynieva 2:07 AM GMT on July 22, 2010 There hasn't been one impressive storm here this spring/summer. Much different than the last couple of years. I'm just hoping a cell comes through overnight and has enough rain to soak the garden. Congrats on the funnel sighting, Cchamp, that's pretty damn cool. Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
 52. TheRasberryPatch 2:18 AM GMT on July 22, 2010 another round moved just to my south Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 53. Zachary Labe 2:46 AM GMT on July 22, 2010 Ugh, .02in of rain here, hahaha...Quoting cchamp6:We had our 2nd tornado warning of the summer today. I saw the funnel and it was amazing. Spinning at an incredible rate and moving southeast at 35 mph!! Trained spotters saw a funnel and we had some pretty severe damage throughout town. (Litchfield Ct.) Pretty rare to have 2 confirmed tornado sighting in this part of the world in one summer. Hundreds of trees down with power lines and some vehicles and homes damaged as well.Hahaha! I was just wondering how you fared in those storms. I read in the storm reports of a spotted tornado near mainstreet in Litchfield. That county sure sees its share of unusual weather from snow to severe weather. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 54. originalLT 4:41 AM GMT on July 22, 2010 Total rainfall for me, 1.56". Many damge reports coming in from western CT, and the lower Hudson Valley in NY.State. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 55. TrentonThunder 2:02 PM GMT on July 22, 2010 Got 0.11" overnight.Updated the Saturday forecast below. Some areas bumped up again. New York City received the biggest raise. Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
 56. goofyrider 4:36 PM GMT on July 22, 2010 Spring LakeMost of the activity last night was north or south or dried out on the way. Some heat lightning but that was it.So far this week we range from .05 to .38 in precip for 3 stations.All that was on Tues am. Think we would be in deep trouble without the snowfall this year.Will have to see what Aug/Sept bring.PS Do "sun showers" fall into the same category as "heat lightning". Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1887
 58. TrentonThunder 11:00 PM GMT on July 22, 2010 It looks like some places along the east coast may experience their worst heat conditions of the summer on Saturday.As of now, 100F air temperatures will occur as far north as the Lower Susquehanna Valley in Pennsylvania, Camden New Jersey, and Northeast Philadelphia..Forecast Temperatures For Saturday July 24th.Last Updated 07-23-10 5:25PMHIGH TEMPERATURE - DEWPOINT AT TIME OF HIGH TEMP - MAX HEAT INDEX - (2010 MAX HEAT INDEX SO FAR)Providence RI: 89F - 75D - 99F - (107)Hartford CT: 93F - 72D - 101F - (106)Stamford CT: 93F - 71D - 100F - (104)New York NY: 98F - 68D - 104F - (107)Tinton Falls NJ: 95F - 70D - 101Hamilton NJ: 97F - 70D - 104FTrenton NJ: 97F - 70D - 104F - (107)Philadelphia PA: 100F - 70D - 109F (107)Selinsgrove PA: 97F - 72D - 106FLinglestown PA: 100F - 71D - 108FHarrisburg PA: 100F - 71D - 108F - (102)Chambersburg PA: 98F - 70D - 105FPittsburgh PA: 92F - 71D - 98F - (94)Baltimore MD: 103F - 70D - 112F - (107)Washington DC: 102F - 69D - 109F - (105)Richmond VA: 103F - 66D - 108F - (107)Raleigh NC: 100F - 70D - 108F - (109)Columbia SC: 100F - 70D - 108F - (109)Augusta GA: 100F - 72D - 110F - (112) Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 796
 61. cchamp6 10:01 AM GMT on July 23, 2010 NWS has confirmed an EF 1 tornado touched down in eastern Litchfield Ct. I didnt need them to confirm that as my own eyes saw the damn thing! As many of you know I work for the highway department here. Have the spent the last day cutting and chipping trees as there are hundreds of trees down.Yesterday turned out to bring me another treat. On my way from Kent Ct. to New Milford on route 7. My girlfriend and I found a 4-5' timber rattle snake on the road!! It was scarey and amazing all at once. Got a picture on the cell for proof. They do exsist here but are very rare to find as they prefer the mountains and hills here. Oh one other thing. We had a 300 lb. black bear in my yard on sunday. One of my 7 year old twins came nearly face to face with it. He was only 15' from it!!! Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1543
 62. whyverne 11:28 AM GMT on July 23, 2010 I've bookmarked your blog. Thanks, it's interesting.Can anyone give me a reason for the preponderence of what I've always called "messy maps"? I was a balloon pilot in the 80s and 90s and looked at the maps every day. It seems like weather was simple then. Cold fronts would march across the US, taking about a week to do so. A cold/warm front stretching west to east was an anomaly. Now they seem to be the norm. I'm glad I don't have to make go/no-go decisions anymore. Other pilots have told me the same thing. Messy. It could be nice or a super cell could form over you and kick the crap out of you for a couple hours. Tough to predict. Member Since: February 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
 65. originalLT 12:26 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Wow, it's been quite a week for you cchamp6! Glad you and your family are safe. Looks like a huge area of rain over northern PA and parts of NYS. will clip me in Stamford CT, and most of CT. for that matter. Seems to be moving just slightly South of due East.Must be the warm front coming thru. P451 looks like most of it will slide by to your north, again!, but you may get some. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 66. TheRasberryPatch 2:15 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 cchamp - that is scary to have a bear of that size in your yard, especially with young kids running around. the sun is finally starting to break through here onto the hot next couple of days Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 67. Zachary Labe 2:48 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Hot days ahead! Looks like some pretty strong thunderstorms could form today especially over central Pennsylvania. Areas farther south and east have a strong CAP. 4km WRF simulated radar really plows a few bands into southcentral Pennsylvania later today...With strong undirection shear aloft, wind damage and an isolated tornado are the primary threats. Heat advisory for today and excessive heat watch for Saturday here in Harrisburg too. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 68. originalLT 3:28 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 I see that clearing over south/central PA, I hope that works it's way up to me in Ct. this afternoon,I'm off today and would like to go to our tiny swim club and use the pool. Looks like for a couple of hours though I will have some showers. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 69. Zachary Labe 4:03 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Quoting originalLT:I see that clearing over south/central PA, I hope that works it's way up to me in Ct. this afternoon,I'm off today and would like to go to our tiny swim club and use the pool. Looks like for a couple of hours though I will have some showers.The warm front is hung up here in the clearing in south central Pennsylvania. With cool air backing in from New York State in the stratiform rain and a moist anomalous southerly flow in southwestern Pennsylvania, I can see some tornadic cells in central Pennsylvania right along the front. There instability region will be more focused northward on Saturday and Sunday in your region. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 70. TheRasberryPatch 4:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Thanks for the heads up Blizz. I will keep an eye out on the sky this afternoon. It certainly is hot and a bit humid. I was working in the garden and was really sweating. I pulled out red onions and beets and it seems like the 1000 cucumber. oh getting some juicy and sweet cherry tomatoes. so far only 2 regular size tomatoes. Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 71. originalLT 4:21 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Thanks for the info Blizz, BTW, it's much "cooler" here today, 73F now with light rain showers. I hope you are safe if those tornadic cells do develope. Locals here are calling for mid 90's tomorrow, with heat indicies about 100., and late day T.Storms. Low 90's Sunday with still the chance of T.Storms. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 72. whyverne 4:40 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Quoting P451:You can still find relatively simple surface maps if you look around.Sites like our Wunderground here tend to want to throw as much junk on them as possible.It's not necessary and it does cause confusion.As to the West to East fronts that are sagging slowly southward they are common place every 7 years or so around here. The High anchored off of the Carolinas is responsible for that setup.It's likely to be the norm for at least the next 3 weeks.Our next big pattern change may prove to be conducive to tropical development --- it's been a while since we got clipped by a hurricane. Think Gloria of 85 or Bob of.. 91?thanks Member Since: February 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
 73. whyverne 4:42 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 As to the West to East fronts that are sagging slowly southward they are common place every 7 years or so around here. The High anchored off of the Carolinas is responsible for that setup.Thanks, never noticed that. Thought it was global warming. It's too hot. Member Since: February 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
 74. originalLT 6:24 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Blizz, I notice a strong line of T. Storms is starting to develope in Northwestern PA., is that the area of storms that may affect you with tornadic cells? They are moving ESE towards your area. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 75. Zachary Labe 6:25 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Not sure if my Davis had a blurp, but it is measuring 93F with a 80F dewpoint making for a heat index of 116F! Also NMM backed off a bit on 12z run for severe weather, so I guess it will be a wait and see this late afternoon. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 76. TheRasberryPatch 7:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Blizz i am at 94F with a humidity of 49% and heat index of 101Fso far radar isn't showing anything like the simulation Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 77. Zachary Labe 7:57 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Quoting TheRasberryPatch:Blizz i am at 94F with a humidity of 49% and heat index of 101Fso far radar isn't showing anything like the simulationThat thunderstorm complex sinking southeast over Lake Erie is the complex on the WRF NMM that is expected to move southeast into central Pennsylvania. The severe thunderstorm watch was now even expanded southeast a bit. Watch that line this afternoon to determine our evening's weather. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 78. TheRasberryPatch 8:17 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 so that complex could possibly give us severe weather this evening...as in after 8pm? it just doesn't look like it is moving southeast enough Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 79. Zachary Labe 8:43 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Quoting TheRasberryPatch:so that complex could possibly give us severe weather this evening...as in after 8pm? it just doesn't look like it is moving southeast enoughAt this point I do not think it looks southeast enough either. A few storms have now formed in western Pennsylvania. I guess we will just have to wait. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 80. TheRasberryPatch 8:59 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 that was a big blob of rain that passed through New York and into the northeast today. what is stratiform rain?i know you have told us what that the warm front is hung up...are the storms forming along the line and what causes these storms to form and move SE? Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 81. originalLT 9:00 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Blizz I think that's the same line or area I reffered to in post #74. And I do think it has enough of a SE componant to it to reach you guys in three or four hours if it holds together. Boy I looked at some of the temps. and humidity in your area and it sure is high. I guess I'll get that tomorrow.By me its still only 73F, but the sky's are beginning to brighten. Only received 0.15" from the showers. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 82. TheRasberryPatch 9:05 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 it's now 95F with a Heat Index of 102F Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 83. Zachary Labe 9:09 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 TheRasberryPatch- The storms are forming in association with a low in Canada and moving southeast along a warm front drapped from Erie to State College to Reading. With a cooler rain destabilized airmass to the north of the warm front and a 22C heat ridge to the south, the storms are training along the instability axis (warm front). Surface instability is incredible today with CAPE near 3000j/kg for central Pennsylvania. But a mid level 10C 700mb CAP is preventing thunderstorms in our area right now. But a few of those storms sinking along the warm front into our area this evening will have so much instability to work with that they will punch through the warm mid level CAP. High helicity and shear values are causing the chance for severe weather. Tomorrow this axis will be farther north with the heat bubble right over our area, so probably tomorrow will be dry for the Lower Susquehanna Valley with highs around 100F. Excessive heat warning now issued here. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 84. originalLT 9:11 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 WOW TRP, that is uncomfortable!! I can't wait for tomorrow--YUK. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 85. TheRasberryPatch 9:26 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 so Blizz i am guessing the higher the j/kg (it's been so long since Physics I don't recall the label, i know the units just not name) the stronger the severe weather? and a CAP is what controls how much the atmosphere can cook, become severe?wow, so tomorrow we will have the warm front farther north and the air will be less humid? that's different isn't it?originalLT - it's not terrible...i worked in the garden and around the yard most of the day. I was sweating a lot, but i don' mind sweating Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 5634
 86. Zachary Labe 9:38 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 TheRasberryPatch- CAPE is a measure of the instability with j/kg being joules over kilogram. Essentially it is potential energy. A CAP is basically an inversion that surpresses convection. A good measure of a CAP is the differing temperature in the atmospheric column. Today temperatures are pretty uniformly mild today so there is little contrast for thunderstorm formation. When there is a colder air aloft and warm air at the surface, there is no CAP. I am thinking now that the CAP today is just inhibiting convection too much for our area. For tomorrow the heat ridge moves closer as the warm front lifts northward, so actually it should be more humid as we are closer to the source of the heat and associated moisture. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 87. originalLT 10:10 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 I am under a tornado watch, here in SW CT, along with southeastern NY and northern NJ. Appears to be a severe T.Storm North of Scranton PA moving southeastward, towards the general NYC area. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 88. Hoynieva 11:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2010 Yeah, that tornado watch seems a bit surprising to me, but we'll see. That storm is definitely headed this way and it'd be nice to see it hold up as the few storms we have had this year have been rather weak. Actually, as I write this a tornado siren is doing its thing. There's no way one has been spotted nearby...wonder why that's happening. Though I have noticed since coming to New York that tornado sirens are a lot more frequent than they were in Michigan. There they tested it on the first Saturday of the month and of course whenever there was a tornado warning. I'm not sure what it is here, but it seems like every two weeks. Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
 89. Zachary Labe 12:00 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Quoting Hoynieva:Yeah, that tornado watch seems a bit surprising to me, but we'll see. That storm is definitely headed this way and it'd be nice to see it hold up as the few storms we have had this year have been rather weak. Actually, as I write this a tornado siren is doing its thing. There's no way one has been spotted nearby...wonder why that's happening. Though I have noticed since coming to New York that tornado sirens are a lot more frequent than they were in Michigan. There they tested it on the first Saturday of the month and of course whenever there was a tornado warning. I'm not sure what it is here, but it seems like every two weeks.Nasty supercell headed straight towards NYC. Pretty impressive hail core around the max 70 VIL with echo tops nearing 50,000ft into the statosphere. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 90. Hoynieva 12:09 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 I'm watching that thing blizz, just waiting for the inevitable collapse or turn just before hitting us, haha. Perhaps this one is destined for us though. Any idea why they keep running the tornado sirens? NYC (or Brooklyn I should say) obviously has different policies than where I grew up regarding tornado sirens. There isn't even a warning but I've heard it a couple of times already. Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
 91. Hoynieva 12:11 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Headed to the roof to watch it come in... Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
 92. Zachary Labe 12:19 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Quoting Hoynieva:I'm watching that thing blizz, just waiting for the inevitable collapse or turn just before hitting us, haha. Perhaps this one is destined for us though. Any idea why they keep running the tornado sirens? NYC (or Brooklyn I should say) obviously has different policies than where I grew up regarding tornado sirens. There isn't even a warning but I've heard it a couple of times already.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... BRONX COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...* UNTIL 845 PM EDT... Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 93. Zachary Labe 12:34 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Live stream out of NYC... Vivid CTG lightning...Link. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 94. Hoynieva 12:43 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 it's amazing blizz, im recording parts of it and taking pics. Wow, what a beautiful sight. This thing looks strong. Such an impressive lightning display and now hearing thunder. The buildup of clouds, the wall of glowing white from the sun just before this thing draped manhattan was just magnificient. Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
 95. Zachary Labe 12:44 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Quoting Hoynieva:it's amazing blizz, im recording parts of it and taking pics. Wow, what a beautiful sight. This thing looks strong. Such an impressive lightning display and now hearing thunder. The buildup of clouds, the wall of glowing white from the sun just before this thing draped manhattan was just magnificient.Keep us updated! And post those pictures/videos then! Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 96. originalLT 12:48 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Thanks for that web site Blizz. Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5050
 97. Zachary Labe 12:55 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Also huge severe MCS moving southeast off of Erie. That will be something to monitor tonight as latest WRF hints out this moving southeast.Exciting convective night across the northeast. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 98. Hoynieva 1:00 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Yeah, thanks for that link Blizz. Everything that guy is saying is pretty darn accurate. The rain is pounding the windows now, but no sign of hail as of yet. As for posting, well, i have no idea even how to post pics/vids on here. I wouldn't mind posting pics from time to time, but in my vids I take of storms such as this, i talk, which makes them a lot worse. I can't help it, I've been doing this during storms since I was old enough to hold a video camera. I planned on being a meteorologist someday, but that didn't pan out, haha. Regardless, the love for it never dies. I'll take a look at my photos afterward and perhaps post them to my account if they seem worthy, haha. Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
 99. Zachary Labe 1:05 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Hoynieva- I have not read any hail reports in the city. There was a few small hail reports in the northern suburbs. Also storm reports confirm likely tornado touchdown for this supercell when it was back in Pennsylvania. The tornado warning was issued for rotation detected by radar, but the rotation was very high aloft and noted at the 1.45degree angle radar analysis. So I doubt you will hear any tornado reports near the city, but straightline winds for sure. 52mph gust just reported at KLGA. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295
 100. Hoynieva 1:10 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Ok, thanks a lot for all your info, as ever, Blizz. This thing looked a lot meaner than it ended up being, but the torrential rains we're getting are definitely welcomed. The clouds taking over Manhattan though were just impressive and I will check if my camera did them justice. It is so difficult to catch lightning on camera, especially with the junky little point and click that I have. Anyhow, thanks again and hopefully those storms that my family in Michigan are getting will head your way toward morning. Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
 101. Zachary Labe 1:15 AM GMT on July 24, 2010 Hoynieva- No problem! The radar while impressive, was not really anything too special. It had an impressive hail core near 60-70 VIL, but it maxed out only near 60dbz near NYC. It was much more impressive towards northeastern Pennsylvania. Also as I mentioned the rotation was well aloft; still though impressive storm for NYC standards. Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 253 Comments: 14295

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