Historic Central Appalachian Flooding?

By: Zachary Labe , 12:18 AM GMT on September 05, 2011

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It has been a little over two weeks since I left the realms of my comfort zone to begin on a new journey. I am sitting here looking out the window at a completely new landscape separate from anything I have seen before. (A very hot dorm room might I add, ugh!). Actually it is quite funny, so far the weather here has been very benign and abnormally warm for Ithaca standards. All of the exciting weather is back home in Harrisburg after over a foot of rain in August! So far my journey is just beginning. Classes have begun. Reality has set in. This is not going to be easy. Through most all of high school I was able to breeze through classes with little outside work. Things came easy. Studying was not really at all necessary for my success. But when you take a group of exceptionally different students and put them together, you are given a very different solution to the equation. While I have only been in my classes for a week; Basic Principles of Meteorology, Meteorology Lab 1, Forecast Competition, Calculus I, Sustainable Energy Systems Writing Seminar, Astronomy 101... it is already evident the amount of work required for success. Coming from a situation where my studying and work habits were mainly confined to small time periods, I had to immediately begin to focus on a new organization technique for time management.

I have already find myself in a relative set routine featuring classes most of the day with time intervals in between filled with studying and working on homework in one of our 19 libraries. My day outside of my dorm during the workweek is from 730am to usually 9pm. It is a long day, but I find myself accomplishing quite a bit. So far I am actually ahead of schedule for long term assignments hopefully overcoming some of my previous procrastinating tendencies. I guess one thing that makes it is easier is that everyone generally is fully motivated here to the max. The libraries are jammed from 7am to 2am the next day with barely a seat to find. A majority of the people I have met here are very concerned with their work load and finding successful ways of completion. They are also interested in the subject and a simple conversation here could quickly lead to something advanced such as the linear ratio of people entering the auditorium in a 15 minute time interval (yes true story, lol). Actually I times some people to get too analytic especially mathematically, and I find myself having to pull away from the conversation, lol.

My meteorology classes are superb and so are the associated professors. Once again I am solidified in making the right choices for my passion. The atmospheric sciences majors are a close group of people fortunately, although I must say I was a tad disappointed to find no one else quite sharing my obsessive love for the weather. And yes, already all the people on my dorm floor are asking for the weather forecast each day, haha. I also entered a forecast competition for the semester against all of the atmospheric science majors, so I guess we'll see I really am any good.

The transition here is still just in its beginning stages. The entire atmosphere of Cornell is superb with the architectural wonders of the buildings to being perched on the top of a small plateau overlooking endless mountains, Ithaca, and Lake Cayuga. The elevation of the University is generally 850-950ft, while the town of Ithaca is about 300ft. There in nothing better than walking back to the dorm from the Libraries right around dusk as the sun lights up the sky at dusk with brilliant reds and oranges against the mountainous terrain and deep gorges/waterfalls here while listening to songs ring off the clock tower bell. Everyday I find myself meeting people from all of the world which I think has been the most interesting of all anywhere from Vancouver, Canada to Singapore to North Korea to South Africa to Ukraine. And I am definitely taking advantage of this cultural mosaic of people asking many questions and discovering all different types of beliefs across the globe. There are many challenges I am still facing and learning to deal with under this new gained independence. I still am in the process of meeting people here. Socially, I am very outgoing and I try to get to know everyone... But I just cannot find 'that' group of friends yet. I suppose in time, I will just know when I find them. The road ahead is not parallel, but I will get there in time.

"Synoptic Setup"
A very complex weather situation is unfolding this week across the Middle Atlantic as a cold front advances slowly this region Sunday and Monday while stalling just south of the region as a stationary boundary. This boundary will be the focus of a multi-day heavy rain event. Currently a warm, anomalous southwest flow with 1000-500mb height thicknesses near 575mb and H85s temperatures near +19C are allowing hot 2m surface temperatures across the region during the past few days. Parts of Virginia and Maryland were in the upper 90s on Saturday and other areas were around 90F with dew points all above 70F making for relatively high heat indices. The combined heat and humidity has even been quite impressive well up through upstate New York. Meanwhile a cold front with a much cooler and drier air mass is trying to work south across the region.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Lee continues to slowly churn in the Gulf of Mexico and across southern Louisiana. Currently steering currents are pretty weak, but eventually the prevailing westerlies will allow Lee to be swept northeastward in the flow. Current GEFS guidance and other global models support a track along the stationary boundary. The question is where the stationary boundary sets up. That area will then be of highest hydrology concern.

None the less, MUCAPE values around 500 j/kg with elevated instability will support complexes of thunderstorms Sunday night slowly moving to the northeast. Storms will be training such as below...

With the loss of daytime heating, thunderstorms will begin to weaken although a few could remain severe with heightened wind shear and helicity values across Pennsylvania and New York. Wind damage will be an isolated threat.

PWATs near +SD around 1.8in will continue to feed heavy rain through much of Sunday night across the entire Middle Atlantic from Virginia to New York on northward and southward. Tropical moisture will promote heavy downpours with GFS/NAM QPF values ranging from 1-1.5in region wide, although precipitation trends generally will be convective with some areas receiving up to 3in in favored training thunderstorm locations. Soil moisture anomalies remain relatively high across the entire region especially for eastern locations affected by Hurricane Irene where localized totals of 8in occurred.

A strong right rear entrance jet will highlight a focused area of heavy rain on Monday along the nearly stationary boundary. Location remains a bit uncertain by areas in northern Maryland, southern Pennsylvania east to New Jersey appear to be favored in this heightened area of frontogenesis. Rainfall rates of .25in+/hr are possible. QPF totals in excess of 1in are possible. Elsewhere scattered showers will give basin wide totals of around .25in or so. Cooler air will funnel into much of the region despite the tropical moisture with temperatures falling into the 60s and 70s region-wide.

Meanwhile towards Tuesday through Thursday uncertainty remains on to the effects of Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Katia. It appears according to latest guidance that Lee's remnants will move along the stationary boundary providing high tropical moisture training up the east coast. The latest 9/5/2011 18z GFS supports this hypothesis along with a semi correspondence with the NAM. The ECMWF is bit drier while the NAM is a bit farther south with the heavy rain axis than the GFS. It does appear though someone along the east coast will see a concentrated area of localized heavy rain with a weekly surplus rainfall total of over 6in.

This heavy rain coupled with the very wet ground and high watershed values will support a risk of moderate to major flooding in some areas. Currently favored are the mountainous areas and the ridges on the eastern side of the Appalachians which will see enhanced totals from the easterly flow and associated orographic lift. Timing will remain difficult to forecast this week for precipitation components due to the number of vortices spinning across the region. It appears Sunday night, Monday night, Tuesday night, and Wednesday may feature the timing of the heaviest rains with breaks in between, but that all still remains uncertain. The remnants of Lee and interaction of the advancing shortwaves along the stationary boundary should promote Hurricane Katia to remain offshore, but increased surf and beach erosion is possible along the east coast due to the close proximity she will travel. The influence of the two tropical systems and front may promote even higher enhanced rainfall across somewhere along the East Coast almost in a predecessor rain event PRE type manner. Right now those with concerns of flooding in their region need to monitor forecasts and radar closely this week. Not everyone will see the heavy rain totals as the event is more convective than stratiform in nature with highly concentrated heavy rain areas making the county warning forecast area very difficult this week. Best idea is to monitor latest trends and high resolution guidance.

Main idea is that heavy rain will be common in the Northeast much of this week with widespread clouds and tropical moisture under cool temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Flooding is possible. Drier air and seasonable temperatures will move into the region towards the weekend with sunshine hopefully drying things out once again as we complete the first full week of September. Looking ahead looks like near normal temperatures continuing the very wet pattern though unfortunately. Stay tuned.

"Soil Moisture Anomalies and 5-day Precipitation Amounts from Hydro Prediction Center"


"12hr Estimated Precipitation"


"Flooding Links"
-Automated Pennsylvania Rainfall Recording Stations...Link
-Flash Flooding Guidance...Link
-HPC Forecasts for Excessive Rainfall...Link
-Hydrology Predictions for Lakes, Rivers, and Streams...Link

Lower Susquehanna Valley Doppler...

(Courtesy of WGAL)

Follow my 24hr forecasts on Twitter... Link and Facebook... Link.

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322. listenerVT
5:29 AM GMT on September 18, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Hahaha... I know! We had an earthquake, hurricane, 1 in 100 year flood, and microburst since I have been gone in my township! What a joke! Where you affected by the Vermont flooding from Irene?


Sounds like home misses you. ;-)


My household came through okay. One town over got serious flooding. But up here in the NW we had nothing so devastating as what took place in the south and central parts of Vermont. Down where partylight lives Irene did her worst. So many rivers sent floodwaters into Lake Champlain that the Lake itself was all muddy! It's phenomenal the way people all over the state have come together to help out, though! People are sending everything they can think of, that can get through the roadways. My son has a non-profit that grows produce for the food banks, and they're sending half the harvest to the hardest hit areas, with the help of Black River Produce which is making the deliveries as they truck their own stuff. VT Public Radio did a one day fundraiser for flood relief that brought in nearly a million dollars. The band Phish just did a concert that brought in over $1.2 million for VT flood relief. The state government, knowing that the snow will soon fly, has decided to repair the roads NOW and worry about how to pay for it later. (Estimates are roughly $80 million.) FIVE contractors working TOGETHER and with the National Guard have restored a huge stretch of Route 4 between Killington and Rutland that had been *completely* washed away. [Folks' 20 minute drive to work suddenly took over an hour by bus and began with a half mile trek through woods! So restoring that road was very welcomed!] Churches are sending food and hot meais. My son and new daughter-in-law got married two weeks before Irene hit. The site of their wedding was completely inundated with feet of water and the river's current took away their grass and topsoil. So another Inn in the same town, which sets on a hill, offered to host all their events until they recovered. Son and DIL, and many others, went to the site and helped with the cleanup and the place is already back up and running! There are thousands of these stories. People are still without what they need in too many places, bur it's getting better every day. Thanks for asking!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5528
321. seflagamma
3:40 PM GMT on September 17, 2011
Bliz!!!

It has been so long since I came to your blog and I am so sorry.

Congratulations on your entry into College life and so happy you are pursuing your passion.

You will be successful in whatever you pursue.

And you will love College once you get all settled in and find others that share your interest.

Good luck and Enjoy your fall semester!

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40929
320. Zachary Labe
3:05 PM GMT on September 17, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:


So glad your family came through okay. You must have been bummed to miss the "excitement" at home, and the hail! Seems ironic!

Hahaha... I know! We had an earthquake, hurricane, 1 in 100 year flood, and microburst since I have been gone in my township! What a joke! Where you affected by the Vermont flooding from Irene?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
319. listenerVT
5:13 AM GMT on September 17, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
More wild weather in the Linglestown area, haha. My family is reporting the power out with the worst thunderstorm they have seen in a while. It is very rare to lose power at my house. Our lines are underground and we haven't lost power for years. Hail also accompanied the storm at my house.


So glad your family came through okay. You must have been bummed to miss the "excitement" at home, and the hail! Seems ironic!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5528
318. listenerVT
4:53 AM GMT on September 17, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
New blog likely this weekend!


Always grateful. First things first, of course.

We need you to be official some day, after all! ;-)

Go Blizz Go!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5528
317. SilverShipsofAndilar
1:38 AM GMT on September 17, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
New blog likely this weekend!


We don't want "likely," we want promises . . . er . . . Your Majesty.
Member Since: December 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 600
316. wunderstorm87
10:32 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:
CPC has really changed its tune for the last 7-9 days of September. Just a few days ago it was looking like we would end on a warm note, but now it looks like we're on the cool side with above average precipitation... again.

I've never read one of their discussions until now but it's interesting how they pretty much just take every model (different runs & ensembles of the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian) and assign a percentage/weight to determine the end product/forecast. It states that the forecasts for Saturday and Sunday are near 100% computerized, with just someone to overview it for QC.

Originally I thought they used more teleconnections trends but it looks like the forecasts are very much model based at the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods and subject to change with the models.

Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
315. MariettaMoon
10:09 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
CPC has really changed its tune for the last 7-9 days of September. Just a few days ago it was looking like we would end on a warm note, but now it looks like we're on the cool side with above average precipitation... again.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
314. Zachary Labe
9:40 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
New blog likely this weekend!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
313. Zachary Labe
8:27 PM GMT on September 16, 2011

Mount Washington Rime Ice and Snow today...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
312. MariettaMoon
5:19 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
A nice collection of 30's this morning in the northeast!

MAINE
Frenchville: 39F
Sanford: 39F

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Lebanon: 39F
Mt Washington: 25F

VERMONT
Bennington: 37F
Rutland: 37F

MASSACHUSETTS
Orange: 39F
North Adams: 38F

NEW YORK
Binghamton: 39F
Plattsburgh: 39F
Elmira: 38F
Saranac Lake: 36F
Fort Drum: 35F
Rome: 35F
Watertown: 35F

PENNSYLVANIA
Franklin: 39F
New Castle: 39F
Pittsburgh Intl: 39F
Scranton: 39F
Johnstown: 38F
Indiana: 37F
Latrobe: 37F
Butler: 36F
Dubois: 36F
Clearfield: 35F
Bradford: 34F

WEST VIRGINIA
Beckley: 39F
Clarksburg: 39F
Elkins: 38F
Wheeling: 38F
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
311. Zachary Labe
2:31 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
Mount Washington reported light snow this morning!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
310. NY451
1:21 PM GMT on September 16, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
Jupiter looked so brilliant.

a low of 43F here this morning. Not too bad. Just a sweatshirt to walk around, but not ready for jeans and a sweatshirt, yet.


It should be fantastic tonight. We should see it without moon obstruction early on. Also will be much clearer I would think with less humidity in the higher levels.

Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
309. NY451
11:46 AM GMT on September 16, 2011
Beautiful morning here in Croton, NY. Overnight low of 46F set about 15 minutes ago. Going to be a good jog.

Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
308. TheRasberryPatch
11:26 AM GMT on September 16, 2011
Jupiter looked so brilliant.

a low of 43F here this morning. Not too bad. Just a sweatshirt to walk around, but not ready for jeans and a sweatshirt, yet.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
307. goofyrider
11:10 AM GMT on September 16, 2011
Temps dropped last night as skies cleared from 55 to 46+ now Winds also diminishing.
Heat kicked on here even as it was set at 55
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2795
306. NY451
3:25 AM GMT on September 16, 2011
Quoting goofyrider:
Cloud cover moving offshore


Jupiter looks fantastic tonight.

Still relatively hazy though. Expecting tomorrow night to be a lot drier and thus clearer viewing. Also the moon coming up later helps.


Dropped to 50F. Slow going.

Took an evening speed walk. Used a coat and worse jeans. First time since May that I can remember.
Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
305. goofyrider
2:03 AM GMT on September 16, 2011
Cloud cover moving offshore
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2795
304. TheRasberryPatch
1:42 AM GMT on September 16, 2011
thanks for posting the pic and video wunder....wow

it's 49F right now. supposed to be a low of 46F. It is too chilly for now. I couldn't believe I had on a sweatshirt this evening. It just didn't feel right, yet.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
303. NY451
1:37 AM GMT on September 16, 2011
Come'on baby.. DROP!!!!




It has actually leveled off for some time unfortunately. Been sitting at 51 for about 90 minutes.
Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
302. NY451
11:46 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting goofyrider:
for P , MAX P NYP and all the P'S and Q'S TO FOLLOW and LVT

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/maritimeforecas t/maincontrol.shtml

lots of stuff for your thoughts


I think you've shared that link with me before. It's a nice website.

I like how it shows the tidal flows up the Hudson.
Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
301. NY451
11:45 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
It's not surprising, Blizz. Sounds like those storms were very strong. The small one that passed to my West last night was putting out an awful lot of lightning.


Well, today we got some light to moderate rain. Temp made it to 70 before dropping steadily through the day.

We stand at 50F right now. Coldest since May I believe.

They did however raise our forecast temps about 3-5F across the board.

Still wonderful but I hate how they are prone to do that.


TONIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES THIS EVENING...
THEN CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THIS EVENING.

FRIDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

SUNDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
300. originalLT
10:55 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Thanks wunderstorm87 for posting that video link, that was quite interesting.LT
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7762
299. Zachary Labe
10:45 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Family reporting lots of trees down and damage across Lower Paxton township from last night, sounds like a mess.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
298. wunderstorm87
10:09 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Here's a video of the tornado/waterspout (not sure if it hit any land, it doesn't appear like it did from the video):
Link

Talk about a change from yesterday here. We had a 90F heat index yesterday and now I have wind chills in the 40's at the same time of day.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
297. wxgeek723
9:43 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
BRRRR 60F with a breeze.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3654
296. wunderstorm87
9:24 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
There was some damage today in Ocean City, MD in association with what looks like a tornado. There are multiple pictures of it but this one is, in my opinion, the best one:
Link

The NWS report...
WIND DAMAGE TO BUILDING ON 75TH ST AND OCEAN FRONT. CONDO ROOF ON BEACH. UNCONFIRMED SIGHTING OF FUNNEL CLOUD.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
295. TheRasberryPatch
5:16 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
since the rain started I received 0.58". I am ready for a couple weeks of warm dry weather
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
294. Zachary Labe
4:24 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
First, hope your family is OK Blizz, second, I kind of like it to be warm or mild, right up to Halloween, then, in November, "let the cold begin"!

Thanks for asking... everything is fine fortunately. Looks like that put my weather station well over the record for the wettest year on record. I will post the total later.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
293. goofyrider
1:43 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
for P , MAX P NYP and all the P'S and Q'S TO FOLLOW and LVT

http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/maritimeforecas t/maincontrol.shtml

lots of stuff for your thoughts
Member Since: February 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2795
292. NY451
1:16 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting listenerVT:
MaxPower451 ~

Yeah, Lake Champlain ~ which is 400+ feet deep in places, turned muddy due to all the muddy rivers flowing into it. Quite sobering to see.


As I was saying it is incredible. It will take a long time for the sediment to fall to the bottom or filter out.

You have to wonder the affect it has on marine life. Since this is a tidal region where I am with brackish water you would think all this fresh water and mud is causing problems.

I couldn't tell here but I bet folks along the Raritan Bay where the Hudson empties into have noticed.
Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
291. NY451
1:14 PM GMT on September 15, 2011
P451 here.

Had about an hours long light show last night from a small yet intense storm that originated in northern NJ and headed into NY State.

67F this morning and very humid. Has the look of thunderstorms today for certain.


Supposed to go down to 40 tonight and up to 60 tomorrow.

Yeah, I can deal with that!



Member Since: September 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 7
290. TheF1Man
4:46 AM GMT on September 15, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
First, hope your family is OK Blizz, second, I kind of like it to be warm or mild, right up to Halloween, then, in November, "let the cold begin"!


I completely agree with you guys, as long as it remains over 50 until that time I can live with it. I wish the temperature would skip from 32-50 just because anything in between won't cut it. The days get pretty dark and gloomy like you describe it Hoy. If it's not snowing, let there be warmth!


Not sure how you are faring Blizz, but i'm finding it tough to get back into the grind of school! So easily distracted this year! Hope your classes and all are going well.
Member Since: February 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 677
289. originalLT
1:59 AM GMT on September 15, 2011
First, hope your family is OK Blizz, second, I kind of like it to be warm or mild, right up to Halloween, then, in November, "let the cold begin"!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7762
288. Zachary Labe
1:55 AM GMT on September 15, 2011
More wild weather in the Linglestown area, haha. My family is reporting the power out with the worst thunderstorm they have seen in a while. It is very rare to lose power at my house. Our lines are underground and we haven't lost power for years. Hail also accompanied the storm at my house.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
287. Hoynieva
12:35 AM GMT on September 15, 2011
We had a storm pop up out of seemingly nowhere a few hours ago, hitting only my area of Brooklyn and southern Manhattan before gradually fading away to the east. .25" in about 20 minutes.

TRP - I'm with you on the warmth. I love snow, but we have a whole lot of cold dark gloomy months where often you just feel like staying inside. I'll take whatever extra sun and heat mother nature is willing to give before blanketing us in her frostiness.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1511
286. TheRasberryPatch
12:25 AM GMT on September 15, 2011
severe thunderstorm hitting me right now. Lightning and thunder is very intense. Rain rate is high 0.30" so far in 15 mins
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
285. wunderstorm87
11:49 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
There's just light rain here as the worst of the storm is to my south in the Linglestown/North Harrisburg area.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
284. wunderstorm87
10:58 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Thunderstorms are exploding now in this unstable air...some of which are weakly rotating. There's only one warning up right now, but with storms intensifying to the north there could be more.

The State College radar is back as well.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
283. MariettaMoon
9:24 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
CPC highlights temps for the 8-14 day period as below average now after an above average 6-10 day. They have precip above average during both periods.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
282. wunderstorm87
9:08 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
I can't believe storms coming around and the radar is down. UGH

Most of the storms should remain near the Maryland border, so LWX(Washington) will be a good alternative radar.

There's some very humid and unstable air our ahead of this front combining for CAPEs of around 3000j/kg. My heat index also topped out at around 90F.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588
281. TheRasberryPatch
8:47 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
I can't believe storms coming around and the radar is down. UGH
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
280. TheRasberryPatch
2:00 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
Hey where is UPPER lately? I wonder how his garden was this year and if he expects a hard freeze or some lake effect snow
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
277. TheRasberryPatch
1:12 PM GMT on September 14, 2011
I actually have a tree that every year I have been at this house drops it's leaves by the end of August. This year it is still full of leaves.

I few days of beautiful weather with a nice breeze. I hope it doesn't get too humid today and very little rain if any. Hoping for a dry front to move through
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6260
276. listenerVT
3:49 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
MaxPower451 ~

Yeah, Lake Champlain ~ which is 400+ feet deep in places, turned muddy due to all the muddy rivers flowing into it. Quite sobering to see.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5528
274. listenerVT
2:38 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
I hope I am wrong, but so far colors have been very dull and brown up here for the leaves. I know it is early, but still...


NW VT has gorgeous colour. We didn't get dry winds from Irene, as many along the coast did. If you need to see gorgeous colour, we're not THAT far away from Ithaca.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5528
273. listenerVT
2:36 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Blizz! GREAT first post from Cornell! As the Mom of 5 college graduates, I can see that you have your head on straight and an excellent study plan in place. As this blog is testament, you will have no trouble at all making lifelong friends at college. Maybe post a message up on a board about a meeting for weather enthusiasts and see if a few interested souls show up. :-)

Thunderstormy evening here. Nice one coming through right now.
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/05 465:4:US?animation=true
It's so warm! Once Maria passes we'll have highs in the upper 50's to upper 60's. I'm looking forward to it.


Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.


Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5528
272. wunderstorm87
1:54 AM GMT on September 14, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
I hope I am wrong, but so far colors have been very dull and brown up here for the leaves. I know it is early, but still...

There's still good news regarding fall color according to this Penn State professor: Link
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 588

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Undergrad; Research Assist.- Onset of Spring Indices Toolbox; Interests- Small spatial scale climatolology

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Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

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