Mild November Weather Continues...

By: Zachary Labe , 6:32 PM GMT on November 12, 2011

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"Afternoon Thoughts" (Updated 11/12)
In the wake of the horrific Penn State scandal, many questions have now given risen to a new eye on collegiate sports such as football and the important of a reputation. Wherever you stand on the scandal, it does indicate a critical error in the education system. A reputation continues to remain more significant than that of a crime. And in this instance, it was more important than that of the horrific acts upon children. The institutions of higher education are built for inherently their name... higher education. The focus needs to be on the importance of academics and not that of worrying about a reputation. A blind eye and tunnel vision in the Penn State scandal led to the negligence of the administration. If crimes are given light and allowed to be dealt with in whatever means necessary, then unnecessary actions/crimes can be prevented. The important of a reputation stems from children in grade school to fortune 500 corporations. In many cases the individual and/or company will go to any means necessary to protect their name.

The focus should be on right versus wrong, and it is not necessary to cover up anything. Another issue in the scandal is that no one person is above the law. There is no person who stands above the decisions of right versus wrong. While Penn States students protested in support of the trustee decision, this clearly indicates a lack of better judgement in college students. In this case football was placed above the crime. It remains frustrating to see continued support for those who allowed this disgusting crime to continue for nine years.

Until it is finally realized that a reputation should not be placed as of highest importance, 'cover ups' will continue to occur. And until society focuses on this attribute, it will not be fixed or managed systematically.

"Current Surface Plot"

(Courtesy of HPC)

"Regional Radar"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Regional Advisories"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Forecast Discussion"(Updated 11/12)
Near normal temperatures with sunshine on Sunday associated with a high pressure regime will give way to increasing clouds later in the day ahead of a low pressure and associated frontal passage. A cold front will be advancing from the west heading slowly east. This will allow for a southwesterly flow on Monday and Tuesday with 60s for highs well up into New England and possible 70s for locations along I-95 as far north as Connecticut. 700mb RH values will be on the rise giving way to precipitation chances from Sunday night through possibly Tuesday. The ECMWF hangs onto the precipitation a tad longer, while the GFS exists the front a bit quicker. Total QPF will range from 0.25in to 0.75in for eastern areas. The low pressure will track inland across the Northeast with steady stratiform rain under mild temperatures. It will be a wet first few days of the week. After the front cooler temperatures will move in for the time being under a relatively steep trough as H85s drop below 0C for all areas. A west-northwest flow will allow the lake effect machine to kick in with instability cellular showers and a few weaker bands. Any snow accumulation looks relatively light favoring Thursday into Friday. Highs will remain a few degrees below normal. High pressure will move into the region towards the weekend with rising temperatures back to above normal.

"Regional Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Current Water Vapor Loop"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteo.)

"Lake Effect Snow Conditions" (Updated 11/12)
The first lake effect snow event has finally occurred across much of the Great lakes in the past few days. A general 290-210 degree flow allowed for two larger bands to occur with one off Lake Erie across northern Pennsylvania and southern New York particularly near Jamestown, NY and across northern Warren County, PA. Snowfall totals generally ranged from 2-6in in this band with the highest accumulations Thursday night. A second lake effect snow band occurred off Ontario stretching across the Syracuse metro (which received mostly rain due to warm boundary layer temperatures) and out across parts of the Tug Hill plateau. Snow accumulations ranged from 1-4in for the most part. Elsewhere lake effect snow was generally limited to cellular showers with a snow/graupel mix. Accumulations remained light due to warm surface temperatures ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s depending on location. Lake water temperatures continue to remain slightly above normal... so given a cold regime it is likely the lake effect will really kick into gear. At this point looking at the weather pattern for the next two weeks, the lake effect machine will remained turned off given warm weather. Although if any cold fronts do move through the region, it will have to be closely monitored. Here in Ithaca we received a few flurries, but are still awaiting our first accumulating snow along with many other locations here in upstate New York.

The best chance for a lake effect snow threat is likely towards mid to late week for the upcoming week as a transient cool wave approach from the northwest. This will give way to a generally west-northwest flow allowing similar lake effect snow banding as this past week. Some locations may receive light accumulations. I will have an update on this in the coming days.

"Current Great Lakes Water Temperatures"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

-Link to official river ice reports page from NWS... Link.
-Link to local ski resort snow conditions... Link.

"Current Northeast Snow Depth and Northeast Wind chills"

(Courtesy of Wunderground)

"Long Term Outlook" (Updated 11/12)
For snow lovers, may I recommend not looking at the long range model prognostics. A strengthening La Nina will continue to favor west coast troughing and the dreaded southeast ridge over the eastern United States. While we have a negative NAO (although it will be going positive), the negative PNA has favored a dreadful Pacific pattern. The Aleutian low is in a very unfavorable position allowing the west coast to get plowed with large Pacific storm and colder than normal temperatures. In fact lower elevations such as Seattle may be at the threat for snow in the next two weeks. The expected pattern change around mid month (as mentioned in my November Outlook) will be delayed possibly until early or mid December. Teleconnections will continue to remain very unfavorable for the foreseeable future and we need the Pacific to change around to get a more winter-like pattern over the eastern United States.

Any cold weather will remain transient lasting for only a day or two. A slight cool down right before Thanksgiving around the 21-22nd is probably the only chance of snow we may able to squeeze in this month. And even this threat is very low!

ECMWF ensembles for the weekly reports came out the other day suggesting this mild weather lasts through December, although accuracy in this prognostics is very low.

Looking at long range guidance, the ECMWF ensembles suggest a step-down pattern which consists of a gradual pattern change over an extended period of time. Given that wavelengths lengthen towards December, it is likely there will be an increase in colder air moving south across the contiguous United States. On a slightly encouraging note, there is a great deal of cold air building across southern Canada which will be enhancing their snow depth and extent. Therefore it is important to note that the cold will not be lacking this winter unlike several dreaded Nina winters. For instance the horrible 2001-2002 winter was definitely due to the lack of cold air in the northern hemisphere.

I do think eventually the pattern will change although I am not sure if December will be as cold as some forecasters believe... I am very pleased with my winter forecast at this point with warmer than normal temperatures but near normal to above normal snowfall.

"Current NAO and PNA Predictions"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Anchorage, Alaska Tower Cam"

*Back due to popular demand!

"Monthly Temperature/Precipitation Outlook"(November)(Updated 11/01)
The first two weeks of November will feature well above normal temperatures particularily towards the second week of the month. La Nina is continuing to strengthen in the equitorial Pacific with noticeable effects beginning to occur across North America including the effects of the southeast ridge. The MJO will be entering and moving through phases 1-4 favoring troughing over the west coast of the United States, will warm air moves and situates itself over the Northeast. Teleconnections also correspond with this forecast as the PNA retreats back towards negative and the NAO postive. Also a positive EPO will last through at least mid month. Given these several indices, there will be little to block the warmth from entering the Northeast through the first two weeks. Current global ensembles continue to indicate the pattern change coming mid month and perhaps a tad bit later. ECMWF ensembles indicate an even quicker turn to a negative NAO suggesting an earlier change. MJO may even approach the more favorable phases of 7-8 towards late month linking towards east coast troughing. At this point it appears the cold air will rapidly move south from Canada after it bottled up for the first half of the month. Canadian snow cover though will likely average near climatological normal through the month of November. The last week of November looks very cold.

Temperatures- Temperatures show average around (+)0.5-(+)1.5 for most climatological reporting sites in the Northeast. My forecast takes in account for a very mild second week of the month and a tad longer of a switch to a colder regime for the second half of the month.

Precipitation- I am expecting near normal precipitation for most areas, although a few areas could average below normal. The first half of the month looks relatively dry at this point, especially in comparison to the recent pattern over the last six months or so. I am expecting a bigger storm to form late in the month given the MJO pattern. This may be in the form of snow for some areas. Snow should average near normal for most locations this month and I think it is likely many areas see their next snow in the month of November with the highest chance right around Thanksgiving.

"Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from Climate Prediction Center for next 30 days"

(Courtesy of NOAA)

"Local Harrisburg Radar"

(Courtesy of WGAL)

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97. TheRasberryPatch
12:25 AM GMT on November 21, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

No we haven't seen him around. I bet he got slammed up there in northwestern Connecticut during the October nor'easter.


Yep, for sure. What is your outcome for the week? rain is on my doorstep.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
96. Zachary Labe
7:43 PM GMT on November 20, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:
It is 60F here...What a beautiful morning and day. I walked the golf course and just loved being out this time of the year and playing a round of golf. Speaking of golf - we haven't seen cchamp around lately

No we haven't seen him around. I bet he got slammed up there in northwestern Connecticut during the October nor'easter.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
95. TheRasberryPatch
7:03 PM GMT on November 20, 2011
It is 60F here...What a beautiful morning and day. I walked the golf course and just loved being out this time of the year and playing a round of golf. Speaking of golf - we haven't seen cchamp around lately
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
94. Zachary Labe
6:01 PM GMT on November 20, 2011
Already up to 62F here! Boy the blogs are dead. We need a snow to revitalize everyone! lol
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
93. Zachary Labe
2:27 PM GMT on November 20, 2011
Already in the lower 50s here in Ithaca this morning. Crazy how warm it has been this month up here; we are at 4.6F above normal this month! Wow!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
92. listenerVT
6:40 AM GMT on November 20, 2011
Quoting snowinvermont:


Wow! That is some nasty cold up there. The worse I have ever seen in VT is -40F back in the 80's in Worcester,VT. Watching the Tues eve/Wed storm. Might be something up here.


I remember that cold snap! We were living in Virginia at the time and came to New England to visit relatives. When we left VA it was 72 degrees, and when we arrived in Maine it was -42. We then drove over to Vermont so my spouse could interview at Digital...stopping in Morrisville along the way to buy the kids "moon boots" and winter coats. While he interviewed, I met with some very nice La Leche League leaders who were all about assuring me that it isn't usually so cold here. What they didn't know at first was that we're from MA and NH and I've lived in every NE state except for CT. LOL! He got the job and we moved to Vermont and have never regretted it.

I'm in Jericho. You?
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5513
91. listenerVT
6:35 AM GMT on November 20, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Very little cold air for this storm system so I think it will be rain for most areas. Northern New England may need to monitor this though for the possibility of snow. But at this point I am limiting all snow to only northern parts of Maine.


Thanks! That's amazing! I'd still like to see some snow settle in by the end of the Thanksgiving weekend.

Or at least a James Taylor snow:
"Well the first of December was covered with snow,
and so was the turnpike from Stockbridge to Boston.
Though the Berkshires seemed dreamlike
on account of that frosting..."


:-)
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5513
90. snowinvermont
4:25 AM GMT on November 20, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
Wow, check out this article on the 'historical' cold in Alaska currently... Link


Wow! That is some nasty cold up there. The worse I have ever seen in VT is -40F back in the 80's in Worcester,VT. Watching the Tues eve/Wed storm. Might be something up here.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 83
89. PalmyraPunishment
12:10 AM GMT on November 20, 2011
Good call, just read this from Steven DiMartino's facebook page.

Remember when I said a week ago that my winter forecast is fine and all those changing their forecast would be in trouble? Say hello to start of the pattern change! http://bit.ly/uCjXyB
Member Since: January 31, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 2250
88. TheRasberryPatch
10:05 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
So now it needs a mechanism to flood southeast into the Continental US? Is there anything out there to bring it southeast and if so, when? I hope not until late December
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
87. Zachary Labe
4:54 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
Historic cold originating from Alaska floods long term 12z GFS across entire US...
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
86. Zachary Labe
4:51 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
Wow, check out this article on the 'historical' cold in Alaska currently... Link
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
85. Zachary Labe
4:14 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
Very little cold air for this storm system so I think it will be rain for most areas. Northern New England may need to monitor this though for the possibility of snow. But at this point I am limiting all snow to only northern parts of Maine.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
84. weatherman321
3:07 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
I take the snow for thanksgiving but I don't know about a mix of rain and snow!
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 140
83. listenerVT
1:49 PM GMT on November 19, 2011
Snow is expected on the day before Thanksgiving when the family is supposed to travel from Maine to Vermont.

How much will be falling and where?

Missing Sully and so grateful for you, Blizzard92!!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5513
82. lippy
11:05 AM GMT on November 19, 2011
Seems like the GFS wants to join the Euro with a decent snowstorm northern New England for Tuesday night.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
81. PhillySnow
2:25 AM GMT on November 19, 2011
I am grateful that I at least have comrades who feel it is bad news to stay too warm to snow. It's still so early, though. We rarely have but a bit of snow in November.

Sometimes the winters that are slow in starting are the best for snow.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1236
80. listenerVT
12:46 AM GMT on November 19, 2011
Here in Jericho, Vermont, the hometown of Wilson A. "Snowflake" Bentley, it was reported by various townspeople that they saw snow flurries on their way to the Library today. It stayed cold the whole day long (mid to upper 30's). Nippy!
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5513
79. HeavySnow
12:32 AM GMT on November 19, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:


I hate this map.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
78. TheRasberryPatch
12:09 AM GMT on November 19, 2011
a lot of EC in that outlook. For snowlovers I would guess you don't want the B to overtake the midwest and northeast....for more snow probably average temps work best.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
77. Zachary Labe
10:59 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
76. TheRasberryPatch
6:25 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

2005 we had an inch on Thanksgiving day and 2008 we had a few inches that week from the freak lake effect. I believe I measured 6in.

This time around the setup is pretty ugly, so it will be tough to get snow especially south of I-80. Something to watch though!


You have a good memory. I wouldn't know it because I am usually at the beach enjoying one last time watching the waves. I do miss the surf fishing this time of the year. Just too hard to do with young kids and cooking dinner and eating oysters. Not sure if the choppers have moved south, but they are fun to catch and I love to eat them...especially the dark meat. Yum.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
75. Hoynieva
6:25 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting PhillySnow:

Good luck, Hoy! Hope it does.


It didn't happen. Moisture passed by about an hour or so later. Thanks though.

Quoting HeavySnow:
And WU corrected the map which had McGrath, AK record a new all time low temperature for yesterday not only for McGrath, but the city, state, country, continent, hemisphere and whole world of -1000. I believe it's an all time solar system low as well, but will have to check with the interplanetary weather bureau.


Actually, you're correct, and I think it would be the coldest place we know of thus far. Interstellar space itself is between 10 and 20 Kelvin, which is still no colder than -442 Fahrenheit. There may be colder places, but we've yet to find them.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
74. NEwxguy
6:16 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Not to mention,most measuring instruments probably wouldn't function at -1000 degrees.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
73. HeavySnow
5:32 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Was I-80 moved south of DC when I was looking the other way?

I'm starting a protest group to march to congress and get them to Dislodge the Alaskan Vortex NOW!

Chant it with me snow lovers!

Dislodge the Alaskan Vortex NOW!


And WU corrected the map which had McGrath, AK record a new all time low temperature for yesterday not only for McGrath, but the city, state, country, continent, hemisphere and whole world of -1000. I believe it's an all time solar system low as well, but will have to check with the interplanetary weather bureau.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
72. bwi
4:26 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
DCA 40 degrees and 30.50 pressure at 11am, totally clear skies. Nice.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
71. bwi
3:57 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Thanksgiving storm sounds fine to me -- rain or snow. Not going anywhere, just need to hunker down and finish writing some papers anyway. Just make sure and tell the long-range models to try to keep Dec 10 dry and calm for our next group bike ride! (We're going to hit the holiday craft markets in DC.)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
70. Zachary Labe
1:48 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting TheRasberryPatch:


NOOOOoooooooooooo...everyone is driving. It's been a good while since we had snow on Thanksgiving. I thing the last time I recall snow on Thanksgiving was a dusting on snow early in the morning '94 or '95

Most of the leaves are down now. The ornamental pears were holding on full of leaves until yesterday after the rain. The cold and wind just knocked most of the leaves off the tree.

2005 we had an inch on Thanksgiving day and 2008 we had a few inches that week from the freak lake effect. I believe I measured 6in.

This time around the setup is pretty ugly, so it will be tough to get snow especially south of I-80. Something to watch though!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
69. TheRasberryPatch
1:26 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
More improvements on overnight guidance slowly showing signs of dislodging the Alaskan vortex. Also Thanksgiving storm?


NOOOOoooooooooooo...everyone is driving. It's been a good while since we had snow on Thanksgiving. I thing the last time I recall snow on Thanksgiving was a dusting on snow early in the morning '94 or '95

Most of the leaves are down now. The ornamental pears were holding on full of leaves until yesterday after the rain. The cold and wind just knocked most of the leaves off the tree.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
68. Zachary Labe
12:12 PM GMT on November 18, 2011
More improvements on overnight guidance slowly showing signs of dislodging the Alaskan vortex. Also Thanksgiving storm?
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
67. originalLT
5:17 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Minus 1000, now that's COLD!
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7614
66. HeavySnow
4:20 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:
A tad improvement on the long range for guidance overnight. Ensembles indicate a weak -NAO block potentially by early December. While helpful, the PV and +EPO will make it difficult for sustained cold. But we will take anything we can get at this point.


yay.

The map has McGrath, Alaska as having recorded a new record low of -1000. Brrrrrr.
Member Since: July 7, 2004 Posts: 18 Comments: 2989
65. Zachary Labe
4:02 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting MariettaMoon:
Just checking in to ask if you're seeing a little lake effect, I know it's favorite kind. I'd imagine it's flurries for you.

Yep, my favorite type of weather! Light snow showers moved through here around 8pm reducing visibilities probably to about 1-2mi. Actually coating the ground on cold objects like cars and such. Yah! lol.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
64. TheRasberryPatch
2:29 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Quoting wxgeek723:


Now that was a MESS. Ice everywhere!


you had ice we had snow that turned to sleet and then freezing rain late which then we were hit with a big drop in temperatures that turned the snow/sleet/rain mix on the ground to concrete.

I see WU has a forecast for Monday night into Tuesday AM of snow.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
63. MariettaMoon
12:56 AM GMT on November 18, 2011
Just checking in to ask if you're seeing a little lake effect, I know it's favorite kind. I'd imagine it's flurries for you.
Member Since: June 11, 2011 Posts: 36 Comments: 677
62. wxgeek723
10:42 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
Quoting weathergeek5:


As Long as I do not see a repeat of that Valentines day Sleet storm.


Now that was a MESS. Ice everywhere!
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 79 Comments: 3589
61. weathergeek5
10:38 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Usually when it is cold in Alaska, then it is a milder pattern across the east coast during the winter; it is a very strong correlation associated with the jet stream and troughs vs. ridges. The polar vortex over Alaska causes extreme cold there, but is the kiss of death for any snow chance across the Northeast. Winter 2006-2007 featured this setup nearly half the winter.


As Long as I do not see a repeat of that Valentines day Sleet storm.
Member Since: December 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1744
60. Zachary Labe
8:44 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
Cold November day here in Ithaca, NY with a few flurries about an hour ago. Two nice bands coming off the lakes with probably 4-8in accumulations in the favored snow belts.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
59. PhillySnow
7:56 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
Quoting Hoynieva:
Temperature when I woke up was 47 degrees, but once the rain returned the temp began to drop and it's now at 40. Wunderground now says snow could mix in with the rain showers.

Good luck, Hoy! Hope it does. Very chilly here as well, but by the time our temp drops low enough, the chance of precip is gone.

There's hope, from Blizz's post # 55, and maybe the outlook will improve for snow in the next few weeks. I can wait till December, but we're in the mountains the last week of November and I sure would love some snow to play in.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1236
58. Hoynieva
6:34 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
Temperature when I woke up was 47 degrees, but once the rain returned the temp began to drop and it's now at 40. Wunderground now says snow could mix in with the rain showers.
Member Since: January 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1503
57. shipweather
6:18 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
It's pretty chilly here in Harrisburg today.
Member Since: December 15, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 987
56. NEwxguy
2:38 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
Got about .55 inches of rain just west of Boston,saw a little sun at sunrise,but clouds have moved in and radar is showing raing moving in fast,may see a little snow late this afternoon.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 881 Comments: 15840
55. Zachary Labe
2:10 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
A tad improvement on the long range for guidance overnight. Ensembles indicate a weak -NAO block potentially by early December. While helpful, the PV and +EPO will make it difficult for sustained cold. But we will take anything we can get at this point.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112
54. PhillySnow
1:06 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
Quoting originalLT:
Looking at the national radar, it looks like Texas(east/central and SE Tex.)is finally getting some rain. I have a friend who lives in the Dallas area, and he said it's pretty dry, and the situation is serious. LT Stamford CT.


I just got back from San Antonio, and it did rain for several days. Quite heavy at times. People were delighted! I have to say it was also very warm - 89 degrees on Monday.

I'm very glad to be home. I'd love for winter to begin in earnest, although it sounds like we've got quite a wait before that happens.
Member Since: December 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1236
53. TheRasberryPatch
12:46 PM GMT on November 17, 2011
for the storm duration I received 0.92" of rain. That should be enough rain for another 10 days or so, hopefully.

I bit brisk this morning...42F and breezy
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
51. originalLT
5:51 AM GMT on November 17, 2011
Here in SW CT. we've received as of mid-night, exactly 1.00" of rain. Winds have shifted to the NW, still raining lightly and the Baro. is 29.72" and steady. Probably the cold front is right over us. 52F
Member Since: January 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7614
50. listenerVT
2:40 AM GMT on November 17, 2011
Quoting anduril:
A high of -33f? I just...I just don't understand Alaska. I mean you see the tv shows that talk about how expensive things are up there with a gallon of milk going for $10 and many areas literally on knife edge for shipments of oil/gas for the tank farms to survive a season. How in gods NAME do those buildings stay warm in -33f? I Just can't fathom it


Insulation. Here in Vermont we have our cold snaps and what gets you through it is a combination of fuel (wood, propane, gas, electric), double or triple-paned windows, good insulation in your attic and exterior walls, an extra sweater and quilt, and a great sense of humour. The buildings staying warm is less of an issue than the cars starting and kids waiting for the bus.

We are also encouraged in such times to check on any elderly neighbours.
Member Since: July 11, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5513
49. TheRasberryPatch
1:47 AM GMT on November 17, 2011
Quoting Blizzard92:

Precipitation is already starting to move out the region. I think chances for snow remain relatively minimal. Most of these changeover events as indicated on the models are always too slow with the advection of cold air. The precipitation usually moves out too quickly.

TheRasberryPatch- That is a general correlation in simplest terms. Anything above normal temperature in respect to climatological means for Alaska. I could look up typical Alaska averages if you would like... the cold air in the northern hemisphere is certainly centered over parts of Alaska. One small community had a high of -33F I believe the other day.


That's not necessary. I was just wondering if you knew off the top of your head. I mean for us mild is 50F for Winter. I was just wondering what mild is for Alaska in the Winter.
Member Since: January 26, 2007 Posts: 72 Comments: 6259
48. anduril
1:18 AM GMT on November 17, 2011
A high of -33f? I just...I just don't understand Alaska. I mean you see the tv shows that talk about how expensive things are up there with a gallon of milk going for $10 and many areas literally on knife edge for shipments of oil/gas for the tank farms to survive a season. How in gods NAME do those buildings stay warm in -33f? I Just can't fathom it
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
47. Zachary Labe
12:37 AM GMT on November 17, 2011
Quoting wunderstorm87:
The 18z GFS gives KMDT an inch of snow on the back end of the front tomorrow. This seems pretty unlikely and the ECMWF isn't showing it, but a surprise coating would be nice. Current HPC guidance gives us a 5-10% chance of >1" in the next 24 hours.

Precipitation is already starting to move out the region. I think chances for snow remain relatively minimal. Most of these changeover events as indicated on the models are always too slow with the advection of cold air. The precipitation usually moves out too quickly.

TheRasberryPatch- That is a general correlation in simplest terms. Anything above normal temperature in respect to climatological means for Alaska. I could look up typical Alaska averages if you would like... the cold air in the northern hemisphere is certainly centered over parts of Alaska. One small community had a high of -33F I believe the other day.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 284 Comments: 15112

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