Severe Weather June 21-23...

By: Zachary Labe , 12:44 AM GMT on June 22, 2008

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"Thoughts on Severe Weather Outbreak of June 21-23"
Good Saturday evening!!! Today I was up in northern Pennsylvania in Lycoming County. I was a little surprised to see all the severe weather warnings in Ohio and western Pennsylvania. And I was even more surprised to see a tornado warning in Crawford County with a tornado actually being reported by trained spotters in the southwest parts of the county. Things seem to be weakening this evening as I figured. Also today there were some pulse thunderstorms across the north and a wind damage report was reported in Susquehanna County with a 60mph gust recorded. Also in western Pennsylvania in Mercer County three reports of damage came in with trees and power lines down. The complex of thunderstorms will continue to move east across the state. It appears the majority of the severe threat has ended along with the expired severe thunderstorm watch. But again cannot rule out an isolated cell within the disorganized line. It will be interesting to watch the progression of the complex to see if it will develop into a nocturnal MCS which can be typical during the summer months. At this point I sort of doubt it though as this is drier air in central and eastern Pennsylvania along with not as strong upper atmosphere dynamics. The primary threat for the rest of Saturday night is heavy rain. Now for Sunday and Monday central and eastern Pennsylvania are under the risk for severe thunderstorms. Alot of questions remain though with this setup as a lot depends on what happens overnight tonight. So since I had a busy day and a questionable forecast, I will wait until tomorrow to update the other sections and come up with severe weather risk maps. Have a wonderful and safe Saturday night!!! Keep your NOAA weather radio on overnight tonight in case of any rogue thunderstorm.

"Current Weather Setup"
Yesterday organized convection formed across southern Michigan down through Ohio and back into Indiana. Severe weather reports were pretty widespread. Embedded in the line of storms were some bow echos, one very strong that moved into western Pennsylvania later in the evening yesterday. It also spawned a tornado in Crawford County. Trained spotters reported the tornado so I am not sure why it is not in the official storm reports. Today yet again severe weather will form, but parameters at not all that terribly high. The SPC though has a pretty heavy worded outlook, so they must be seeing things that us the general public is not authorized to see. Though I must take in note the SPC has a horrible track record this year. The NWS State College is not overally excited about the event. But the surrounding NWS's are talking about the event a little more heavily. I think there will be some forecast busts today. For instince in the Mt. Holly discussion it is already apologizing if they make a bad forecast today. Confidence is very low. But in any case I will try to make the best forecast for what I feel is going to happen. I just checked the 11z analysis across the northeast and some CIN which acts as a CAP is present over southeast Pennsylvania. Yet some 1000 j/kg is present over the same region. So once the CAP is broken storms could begin to fire up in this region. Tornadoes are a threat today and this system has a history of producing tornadoes so remain alert today for any more updates. The SPC has highlighted eastcentral Pennsylvania in a rare 5% risk of tornadoes today. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the day!

"Current Advisories"


"Current Satellite"

(Courtesy of Penn State Meteorology.)

"Current Surface Map and Weekly History of Jet Stream Position"


"Radar for Western Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Central Pennsylvania"

"Radar for Eastern Pennsylvania"


"Forecasts from Storm Prediction Center"
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND. DEEP SWLY WIND FIELDS AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-40 KT
SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS
WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.

ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO ERN NY ATTENDANT TO ASCENT WITH A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST MOVING INTO QUEBEC WILL DELAY
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE EARLY TODAY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY AND SHOULD SUPPORT AN INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS AS THEY
TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE S/SEWD TODAY AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER
MI/THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD TOWARDS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...MODERATE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW
SUPERCELLS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HEATING AND INFLUX OF GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL ALLOW AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY STORMS INTO
CENTRAL/ERN NY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT/TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE REGION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONGER NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MASON-DIXON LINE/CENTRAL PA INTO ERN
NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO OVER THIS REGION. OTHERWISE...STORMS
WILL ORGANIZE INTO LINES/CLUSTERS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MID EVENING.

"Tornado Risks"

"Hail Risks"

"Wind Risks"


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...NORTHEAST STATES/MID ATLANTIC COAST...
UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES/MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING...CLOUD BREAKS/DIURNAL HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SURFACE
BASED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CORRIDORS OF 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. BENEATH 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL BOWS/DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALSO FAVORING
A SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

"Day 2 SPC Severe Weather Risks"


"Model Analysis"
Sunday morning model initiation was very poor. The NMM model has a very poor hold on this entire system and I will not be using it for any support. The SREF model seems to have a pretty good grab on this complex situation. Later today it develops CAPEs near 1500 j/kg in eastcentral Pennsylvania and elsewhere CAPEs around 1000 j/kg. The values are marginal at best. Dewpoints today are pretty low but slowly rising thanks to last night's moisture from the thunderstorm line. Currently dewpoints are in the low 60s and possibly they could rise to the upper 60s. Temperatures are going to be higher than originally expected due to full sunshine statewide this morning. But with a weak southwest flow and an incoming trough temperatures should stay in the low 80s to possibly mid 80s. Shear values are modest at best with high winds aloft at 80knots and winds in the low level jet of only 30knots. I have a feeling today could be quite a bust day. The local NWS have been sticking to the models nonstop and this morning they forecasted the whole region to be thick in clouds, which obviously we are not. The EURO model also predicted a coastal low affecting us, which currently we see that it will not affect us. Helicity values are not impressive today along with EHI values at 1 or below. The SWEAT index is around 250 which yet again is not overally impressive. The highest of severe weather parameters are found along the surface cold front that will extend from central Pennsylvania through eastern NY. Also riding along with be weak low pressure systems. But the front will be relatively weak and will not really act as a focus point for organized convection, but it still should aid in isolated convection which has the potential for supercellular development. Tornadoes are a potential threat today from central Pennsylvania on eastward. Across western Pennsylvania orographic lift will give way to ridgetop pulse thunderstorms under the upper-level trough and deep cold pool aloft. Hail is the primary threat under 8kft freezing levels. Collapsing thunderstorm cores could also potentially lead to strong straightline winds, but this threat should be isolated at best. Overall I am not looking at an impressive outbreak. For Monday's severe weather threat I will have another discussion on Monday morning.

"3z SREF Model Forecast Max Cape Index"

(Sunday afternoon)

"12z NAM Model Forecast SWEAT, Helicity, and CAPE indices"

(Sunday afternoon)

"3z SREF Model Forecast Max Cape Index"

(Monday afternoon)

"12z NAM Model Forecast SWEAT, Helicity, and CAPE indices"

(Monday afternoon)

"My Forecast for Severe Weather"
So you may be asking since I do not think the outbreak will be too impressive, then why do I have a moderate risk of severe weather outlooked for eastern Pennsylvania. Well remember my maps do not cooridinate for definitions of SPC outlooks. My moderate risk was upgraded from a slight risk due to the tornado threat. Tornadoes are uncommon in Pennsylvania, so I decided to issue a moderate risk due to the uncommon threat faced in PA. I issued a slight risk for western Pennsylvania with a 5% risk of severe thunderstorms in northwestern Pennsylvania. Currently low clouds and fog are inhibiting high instibility. My forecast today does have a higher than usual bust potential due to many uncertainties with today's forecast. Stay tuned for more updates or if the maps needs a modification with my 1:00pm update.

"My Severe Weather Risk Map"

(Sunday)

"Conclusions on Severe Weather Outbreak"
Again I am not looking at an impressive event at all. The triggers for severe weather are just not anywhere to be found other than orographic lift which is found mainly in western Pennsylvania. The SPC is hyping this event a little more than I am talking about organized supercells and bow echos capable of widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes. For Monday the severe weather threat is not overally high once again and should be most organized in the east but still isolated to scattered in the west as the upper level trough continues to move through. And as we have seen with the last trough, they can easily produce strong to severe thunderstorms during the heat of the day. Stay tuned to your NOAA weather radio and updates from the NWS throughout the day. I will try to provide updates throughout the day on the impending situation. Have a wonderful Sunday!!!

"Storm Reports"


"Here north of Harrisburg 2008 statistics"
(Severe Weather Stats...)
Severe Thunderstorm Watches- 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings- 1
Tornado Watches- 1
Tornado Warnings- 0
Total Thunderstorms- 13

(Precipitation Stats...)
Flood Watches- 4
Flood Warnings- 3
Monthly Precipitation- 2.97inches
Yearly Precipitation- 21.04inches

(Temperature Stats...)
Heat Advisories- 4
Excessive Heat Warnings- 0
90degree days- 5

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35. Zachary Labe
12:46 AM GMT on June 23, 2008
Well what a bust of a day. Severe weather did not really impact the areas the had the highest severe weather parameters. Now I am not too upset with my forecast as was going to issue a slight risk for the whole region, but upgraded to a moderate risk due to the isolated tornado threat. What actually happened was supercells developed in southcentral Pennsylvania where large hail and damaging winds occured. Also in northwest Pennsylvania an isolated severe weather report occured. A CAP occured across much of Pennsylvania. The jet stream's position surpressed much of the activity. I will issue my verification map Monday. Overall my forecast was not too good, but really I was expecting this. The SPC yet again really had a bust of a day too. For tomorrow another severe weather threat is upon us in Pennsylvania. I will update all discussions and maps for tomorrow sometime around Monday morning. Have a wonderful Sunday evening!!!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
34. Zachary Labe
10:51 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC013-027-061-067-087-222345-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0068.080622T2248Z-080622T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
648 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL BLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTH CENTRAL CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 646 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TROUGH CREEK STATE PARK...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTINGDON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 39 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RAYSTOWN DAM AROUND 700 PM EDT...
HUNTINGDON AND MOUNT UNION AROUND 705 PM EDT...
FRANKLINVILLE AROUND 715 PM EDT...
ALLENSVILLE AROUND 720 PM EDT...
MCALEVYS FORT AND ROCK SPRINGS AROUND 725 PM EDT...
BELLEVILLE AND WHIPPLE DAM STATE PARK AROUND 730 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
22/522...ROUTE 322...ROUTE 322/22...ROUTE 522.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4088 7787 4056 7741 4025 7809 4038 7828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 224DEG 34KT 4036 7812
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
33. Zachary Labe
9:54 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Watch out. This supercell that has been around all day shows now signs of rotation. Watch out Snyder and Union County.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC027-035-087-109-119-222245-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0067.080622T2201Z-080622T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
601 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL CENTRE COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 556 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SNYDER-MIDDLESWARTH STATE PARK...OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LEWISTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
WEIKERT AND TROXELVILLE AROUND 610 PM EDT...
LAURELTON CENTER AND PENNS CREEK AROUND 625 PM EDT...
R.B. WINTER STATE PARK AND MIFFLINBURG AROUND 635 PM EDT...
SAND BRIDGE STATE PARK AND CARROLL AROUND 640 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 185 AND 196.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 522...STATE
ROAD 45.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4115 7726 4108 7717 4108 7716 4092 7695
4069 7726 4070 7730 4069 7733 4077 7746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 217DEG 24KT 4079 7734
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
32. Zachary Labe
9:30 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC085-121-222230-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0063.080622T2125Z-080622T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
525 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
VENANGO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MERCER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STONEBORO...POLK...SUGARCREEK...SENECA AND OIL CITY

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN
MARYLAND AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4160 7976 4137 7958 4112 8022 4127 8035
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 238DEG 19KT 4125 8018
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
31. Zachary Labe
9:30 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC067-087-109-222215-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0066.080622T2127Z-080622T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
527 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN SNYDER COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEWISTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ALFARATA AROUND 535 PM EDT...
BELLTOWN AND REEDS GAP STATE PARK AROUND 545 PM EDT...
MCALISTERVILLE AROUND 550 PM EDT...
MCCLURE AROUND 555 PM EDT...
SNYDER-MIDDLESWARTH STATE PARK AROUND 600 PM EDT...
BEAVER SPRINGS AND RICHFIELD AROUND 605 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 322/22...
ROUTE 522.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE INCH HAIL IN
HUNTINGDON COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! PUT YOUR AUTOMOBILES INTO A CARPORT OR
GARAGE.


VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WHICH
COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER ROADS WITH WATER. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4058 7766 4082 7747 4086 7736 4081 7736
4083 7728 4066 7700 4046 7749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 224DEG 27KT 4059 7752
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
30. Zachary Labe
9:29 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC009-057-222230-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0065.080622T2125Z-080622T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
FULTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INGLESMITH...OR 14 MILES
EAST OF CUMBERLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
INGLESMITH AROUND 535 PM EDT...
BARNES GAP AROUND 540 PM EDT...
LOCUST GROVE AND CLEARVILLE AROUND 550 PM EDT...
COVE MILLS AROUND 555 PM EDT...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS AND NEEDMORE AROUND 600 PM EDT...
BREEZEWOOD AND BIG COVE TANNERY AROUND 605 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...
THE PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 184...AND
I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 147 AND 170.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...AND
ROUTE 522.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK
SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
PUT YOUR AUTOMOBILES INTO A CARPORT OR GARAGE.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4019 7821 4016 7813 4013 7809 4012 7801
4007 7787 4006 7787 4000 7793 3988 7797
3975 7807 3973 7810 3972 7864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 224DEG 30KT 3967 7849
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
29. Zachary Labe
9:21 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Wow! That cell moving through Juniata and Mifflin County has 77 dbz and hail potential of greater than 4inches according to radar estimates.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
28. Zachary Labe
9:19 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Storm Reports...

Three Springs - Huntingdon County - 1.00inch hail
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
27. Zachary Labe
8:42 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC061-067-087-099-222130-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0064.080622T2039Z-080622T2130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
439 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN MIFFLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF PERULACK...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HUNTINGDON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
PERULACK AROUND 450 PM EDT...
BLACKLOG AROUND 455 PM EDT...
HONEY GROVE AROUND 505 PM EDT...
STRODES MILLS AROUND 510 PM EDT...
SPRUCE HILL AROUND 515 PM EDT...
WALNUT AND LEWISTOWN AROUND 520 PM EDT...

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22/522.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL IN
THREE SPRINGS IN HUNTINGDON COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! PUT YOUR AUTOMOBILES INTO A
CARPORT OR GARAGE.


VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...WHICH
COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER ROADS WITH WATER. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4067 7766 4047 7734 4023 7778 4032 7791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 222DEG 27KT 4031 7781
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
26. Zachary Labe
8:24 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Wow, that storm moving into Huntingdon County is one of the strongest cells I have seen anywhere in PA this year. Look at the radar estimates.

Y1 73 dBZ
30,000 ft.
54 kg/m²
100% chance of severe hail
100% chance of hail
3.00 in. max hail size
25 knots
SW (222)

Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
25. Zachary Labe
8:06 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC055-057-061-222045-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0063.080622T2002Z-080622T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
402 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHEASTERN HUNTINGDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WATERFALL...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BREEZEWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 34 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
DOYLESBURG AND MOUNT UNION AROUND 430 PM EDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 175 AND 186.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 522.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS 58 MPH OR STRONGER...OR
HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LARGER. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A
STURDY LOCATION NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4000 7799 4013 7816 4017 7814 4042 7791
4039 7786 4037 7786 4038 7781 4031 7772
4027 7771 4027 7770 4028 7768 4024 7764
4022 7764 4022 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 229DEG 29KT 4013 7800
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
24. Zachary Labe
8:05 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OHC007-055-085-133-155-PAC039-049-222030-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0104.080622T1927Z-080622T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
327 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
EASTERN GEAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL PORTAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
NORTHERN TRUMBULL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
WESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHWESTERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GENEVA TO MIDDLEFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF JEFFERSON TO 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHARDON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 21 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEST
FARMINGTON...JEFFERSON...ORWELL...NORTH BLOOMFIELD...ALBION...
ANDOVER...LINESVILLE...EDINBORO...KINSMAN AND MEADVILLE

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4153 7999 4148 8034 4148 8051 4145 8051
4134 8112 4185 8097 4196 8014
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 315DEG 18KT 4175 8088 4140 8102
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
23. Zachary Labe
7:52 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Cell beginning to intensify. Strong hail core.



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
337 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

PAZ026-035-222000-
FULTON-HUNTINGDON-
337 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN FULTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
HUNTINGDON COUNTIES...

AT 332 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE FROM 12 MILES
EAST OF BREEZEWOOD TO BREEZEWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR WELLS TANNERY AROUND 350 PM...WATERFALL
AROUND 355 PM AND SHADE GAP AROUND 400 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 164 AND 186.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 30...ROUTE
522.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
22. Zachary Labe
7:48 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Darker cumulus clouds are building now. The CAP has been slightly lifted.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
21. Zachary Labe
6:57 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OHC007-PAC039-049-221930-
/O.NEW.KCLE.SV.W.0099.080622T1829Z-080622T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
229 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ASHTABULA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO...
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...
WESTERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...


* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ASHTABULA...AND MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ANDOVER...NORTH KINGSVILLE...CONNEAUT...LINESVILLE...MEADVILLE...
GIRARD...EDINBORO...CAMBRIDGE SPRINGS AND ALBION

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!


PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN OHIO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

LAT...LON 4211 8014 4168 7989 4152 8091 4185 8097
4195 8065 4197 8057 4199 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 251DEG 18KT 4182 8078
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
20. Zachary Labe
6:56 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
cchamp6- Wow that is amazing. Talk about unusual.



Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (70%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
19. cchamp6
5:33 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Tornado warning for it now.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
18. cchamp6
4:51 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Just saw a report out of New Hampshire of 3" hail. Baseball size.
Member Since: December 21, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 1637
17. Zachary Labe
4:46 PM GMT on June 22, 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221640Z - 221745Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS OH THIS AFTERNOON AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ALIGNED
INTO SW-NE FASHION...LIKELY DELINEATING A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
COLLOCATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/
AND VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KT/ THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THUS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF TSTMS INTO LINES OR CLUSTERS WITH THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..MEAD.. 06/22/2008


ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

40328467 40968398 41478197 41798086 41038056 40488073
39458206 39128348 39408468
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
16. Zachary Labe
4:20 PM GMT on June 22, 2008


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WV / WRN AND CNTRL MD / WRN AND CNTRL VA / SWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221616Z - 221745Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

TSTMS ARE FORMING/INTENSIFYING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM FAR NERN
KY/SERN OH EWD/SEWD INTO WRN VA AND NWRN NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS PERHAPS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE
LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE CURRENT SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED MAKING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. BUT
IN GENERAL...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A ZONE OF DEEPER
CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH.

SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TODAY AS MIDLEVEL FLOW
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
15. Zachary Labe
4:08 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Currently 80degrees with a 61degree dewpoint. Convective temperatures have now been met. Cumulus clouds are beginning to form and grow.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
14. Zachary Labe
1:29 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
jthal57- You are right, that is very rare. They have to be seeing something I am not, because I just do not see that big of an outbreak.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
13. jthal57
1:20 PM GMT on June 22, 2008
Blizzard-I would venture to say that it's probably rare for the SPC to put the eastern half (most of) of PA in a 5% tornado chance. Brief shower here this AM, not enough to register in my gauge, however. Looks as if it's going to be a busy weather day!
12. Zachary Labe
1:29 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
charlesimages- Lol, you know come to think of it I think I have heard that mentioned before by other people too, they must be bad. Good talking to you this evening I think I am going to sign off and read, pretty busy day today. Thanks for stopping by! Have a great night!
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
11. charlesimages
1:26 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
LOL yeah, if it isn't one thing it's the next right?

GRR is BAAAD.. I don't like knocking our own NWS but.. yeah they are one of the laughing stocks now..
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
10. Zachary Labe
1:21 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
Well I must say which is quite unsual, but my NWS CTP has been making great severe thunderstorm warning forecasts. Every warning they make there always seems to be a damage report along with it. CTP though is horrible at winter storm forecasts here in southern Pennsylvania. They think we live in Florida. They always greatly underestimate our snow totals. Very frusturating.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
9. charlesimages
1:18 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
Yeah no kidding!

I have been shocked at the number of mod. risks.

Also, the GRR NWS has been posting a severe thunderstorm warning for almost every storm that crosses lake michigan
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
8. Zachary Labe
1:14 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
charlesimages- And another thing I notice is that a moderate risk of severe weather by the SPC used to be pretty rare. But now they seem to be used almost everyday. I mean here in the northeast I think we have had 3 moderate risks which only 1 of them I believe was maybe necessary.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
7. charlesimages
1:02 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
I won't have issues either once I move! Cause wherever I am going next will have cable =)

The SPC has been making bad forecasts most everywhere this year, it's nuts!

1 county north aye? I have been lucky to see a funnel cloud, I have only seen a half handful of storms.. and I am still waiting!
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
6. Zachary Labe
1:00 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
charlesimages- Yea pretty weird. The SPC did not even have that area in a 2% risk of tornadoes. And in Ohio there were lots of tornado warnings today. Personally I think they have been making some pretty bad forecasts lately. Here in Pennsylvania I actually live near our tornado alley. The counties of York, Lancaster, and Adams County historically record a tornado almost every year. I live just one county north of that line.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
5. charlesimages
12:56 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
Wow man that is a switch huh? Yeah don't normally hear about tornadoes out your way..
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
4. Zachary Labe
12:56 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
charlesimages- Oh my sorry, I have no issues whatsoever with loading.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
3. charlesimages
12:54 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
Wow.. took my internet forever but I did it!

I can BARELY.. load your blog LOL I am on satellite though, they say it's high speed but.. it's awfully slow a lot of the time..
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278
2. Zachary Labe
12:53 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
charlesimages- Good evening! Tornado was spouted in northwest Pennsylvania today in Crawford County by trained spotters. That is somewhat unsual territory for PA tornadoes.
Member Since: December 14, 2007 Posts: 278 Comments: 15045
1. charlesimages
12:50 AM GMT on June 22, 2008
1st?
Member Since: May 25, 2006 Posts: 347 Comments: 29278

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About Blizzard92

Cornell University- Atmospheric Sciences Student; Central PA SKYWARN Storm Spotter; American Meteorological Society Member; PA CoCoRaHS Branch Member

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
52 °F
Scattered Clouds

Personal Weather Stations

Linglestown, PA
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 24.2 °F
Dew Point: 15.2 °F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Updated: 10:37 AM EST on January 18, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations