Bluestorm5's Blog

Uncertain Future for 94L

Posted by: Bluestorm5, 11:48 PM GMT on August 20, 2012

Let's me start with this... this blog entry is to not be used for life or death decisions, please. I am not responsible for inaccurate forecasts as I am not professional meteorologist. The only forecast that are safe to use for your decisions is from National Hurricane Center.

Anyway, Atlantic Ocean is getting active as we are reaching toward the peak of season. We got three invests going on in Atlantic Basin, with 94L and 96L marching on toward Leeward Islands while 95L is hanging around in Gulf of Mexico from ex-Helene.

INVEST 94L

First, 94L is by far the greatest threat to Americans currently. Why? All of the patterns and models are suggesting that United States is the final landfall for this storm, but exactly where? That part, no one knows. It's only 6-8 days away, so there is plenty of time to track this storm and see what it does. Right now, 94L is moving too fast, struggling with dry air, etc. It's not a healthy looking storm, but the circulation is closed, tight, and strong. Once 94L gets going with the convection, it'll get better. The thing with this storm is that it's MASSIVE. Just look at this:

The negatives for this size is that it'll take a long time to get stronger and the struggle with dry air will take awhile. This meant less chance for it becoming a major hurricane. The positives? Once it get rid of dry air, it'll be hard for dry air to get back in and with the circulation being healthy, this can be a strong, healthy storm in the future. As for my forecast:

As I said few nights ago, I expect 94L to move fast and will slowly get organized. It'll finally become a depression in a day and a tropical storm in two days. The track is very tricky as this storm got two ways to go. First suggestion is for this storm to remain weak and therefore, take more western path toward Jamaica. From there, it'll go over Cuba and its mountains. This will causes this storm to struggles with the land and enter Gulf as a weak tropical storm. However, it COULD revives and become a strong storm going toward Western Florida and maybe peaks at strong Tropical Storm to Category 1. The second suggestion (and my forecast) is for this to be strong enough to "feels" the weakness over NE USA and go poleward starting just south of Puerto Rico. It'll go over Haiti and DR, which also got 10,000 feet mountains, and the storm will weaken to minor tropical storm. From there, there will be no more land and strengthening is expected there. I'll say this could peaks as a Category 1 or 2 and hit around Myrtle Beach, SC. However, we are a long way away and I am not 100% positive about the final landfall so stay tuned to 94L!

INVEST 95L
I honestly think it's too weak to develops into anything, but Hurricane Humberto reminded that anything can happens in the Gulf so folks in Texas and Louisiana should not take their eyes off of this storm.

INVEST 96L
Invest 96L should have a chance to develops into something soon, but not in the next 24-48 hours. However, we shouldn't ignore it as it could deal a 1-2 blow to wherever 94L is heading for. Stay tuned!

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1. MAweatherboy1 11:53 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thx Blue, very possible scenario you have there. Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 67 Comments: 6362

2. Bluestorm5 11:54 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1: Thx Blue, very possible scenario you have there. No problem :) Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 7 Comments: 3593

3. GeorgiaStormz 11:57 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
I agree... now let me go read this blog post.... btw im using this in life an death circumstances :) Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7162

4. tstormtime 11:57 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Very nice blog post, Bluestorm5! A very unpredictable system. Member Since: June 18, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 92

5. wxchaser97 11:59 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thanks Blue, Im going for just north of the Islands but we are not pro mets:) Anything is still possible. Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 87 Comments: 6787

6. Dragod66 12:16 AM GMT on August 21, 2012
good blog Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 446

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