|By: Bluestorm5, 2:13 AM GMT on December 03, 2013||+8|
Potential Historical Cold Outbreak In Forecast
Few weeks into a historical cold snap, one would think that the atmosphere should start warming up soon. However, it's not the case here for those west of Appalachians. It will get colder for most of the country, especially the northern plains. Computer models are showing many analogs from the top cold events of the last 40 years, especially the ones in 1983, 1989, and 1990. The fact that these models suggests that spells trouble for those that hate frigid weather. Temperatures should slowly crashes the next few days as the arctic air mass bleeds into the county, peaking the first time later this week. At that same time, sub-zero temperature will be common in the northern plains. The cold mass also could reach as far south into Dixie states, with the Southeast escaping the cold. After December 9th, the cold should fade away somewhat, but ECMWF heights and anomalies supports extremely cold pattern for most of December outside East Coast.
(Low temperatures for December 9th)
(ECMWF heights and anomalies next week)
Wintry Mess Upcoming
Later this week, system of low pressure enters the southern plains. Lot of ice, sleet, and snow will fall in Oklahoma and Texas during this time. That low will then travels through Tennessee Valley before leaving through North Carolina, bringing snow and ice with it. The main event for Mid-Atlantic actually comes from the 2nd low right behind first low, coming through USA with little more precipitation in the atmosphere and a colder atmosphere left behind first low. When the 2nd low arrives, lot of ice and snow could be possible for Virginia, West Virginia, DC, Delaware, and Maryland. Rain/ice/snow lines are over North Carolina in most of models so it's still possible for North Carolina to get into the action via a trough, especially in Western NC and Piedmont area. Currently, GFS favors warmer temperatures which will pushes the rain/ice/snow lines slightly northward as well as less snow and ice. However, ECMWF sticks with more colder and more southern solution bringing good ice and snow into North Carolina as well as heavier amounts in most of Mid-Atlantic area. It's too early to know what kind of snow amounts Mid-Atlantic dealing with or where snow, ice, and rain will far. I created a quick graphic for the general threat area that I think could occurs between now and the end of event next week. The lines on this graphic will shifts northward or southward over the next few days as the models get better handling on this event:
Green: 100% rain
Red: Mostly ice from this event
Pink: Mix of snow and ice
Dark Blue: Mostly snow from this event
Light Blue: Snow from other events during the week
I will update this blog if something changes as we get closer to the event. I hope y'all have a good and safe week!
Ryan Maue tweeted these stats:
12z Euro from 12/2/13 got 15.7 degrees average in the lower 48 states on morning of December 7th later this week. Here's the historic December cold snaps in past 20 years to compare:
Dec 18-30, 1983 included 11 days below 16°F on average in lower 48.
Dec 16-23, 1989 had 8 days below 16°F average.
Dec 22-26, 1990 had 5 days below 16°F average.
Dec 19, 1996, Dec 22-23, 1998, Dec 24, 2004, and Dec 22, 2008 all went below 16°F average that day for lower 48 states.
Interesting stats here.
Categories:mid-atlantic snow ice rain sleet Western North Carolina piedmont virginia winter weather wintry event
|Updated: 4:17 AM GMT on December 03, 2013||Permalink | A A A|
|By: Bluestorm5, 5:04 PM GMT on October 25, 2013||+8|
First Snowfall of Year
Last night in Boone and surrounding area, the first measurable snow of 2013/2014 winter fell to the ground. The surrounding mountains reported anywhere between a coating to few inches, while Boone itself had anywhere between coating to an inch of snow. A friend of mine took this picture on campus of Appalachian State University:
(Credit: A friend of mine posted this on Instagram)
Now, you're ...
Categories:Asheville, NC Boone, NC Western North Carolina Winter Weather WNC Snow Ice Wind Low Temperatures Record Breaking Historical
|Updated: 5:10 PM GMT on October 25, 2013||Permalink | A A A|
|By: Bluestorm5, 9:21 PM GMT on September 18, 2013||+4|
Hey, guys! Sorry I haven't got time to blog the last few weeks because I've been so busy on campus! We had TS Gabrielle which didn't do much, Hurricane Humberto which became the first hurricane of season few hours before the record for the latest hurricane of season, and Hurricane Ingrid which brought lot of rain to Mexico. To this point in season, the score is 9-2-0 which is pretty encouraging for my lowest numbers of my 2013 r...
Categories:Asheville, NC Blue Ridge Parkway DuPont State Forest Pisgah Forest Mountains Western North Carolina WNC Saluda, NC Brevard, NC Transylvania County NC Hiking Waterfalls
|Updated: 9:24 PM GMT on September 18, 2013||Permalink | A A A|
|By: Bluestorm5, 4:18 AM GMT on September 02, 2013||+6|
97L a Future Threat?
Since my last tropical blog, Erin and Fernand came and pass away and we have been in historic streak of no hurricane for this year. September 11th is the record for the latest storm to form for the year which belong to 2002 season and if 97L doesn't live to the potential, there's a great shot of that being broken. However, a wave left Africa a week ago and it was thought to develops not long after going by Cape Verde and r...
|Updated: 4:20 AM GMT on September 02, 2013||Permalink | A A A|
|By: Bluestorm5, 4:06 AM GMT on August 19, 2013||+9|
Arriving to Asheville
Well, right now I'm just chilling at my dorm room at University of North Carolina Asheville so my new life had begun. I'm writing this blog to share the stories of what I did the past week since I left my home in Raleigh area on August 10th. It all begin the day of August 9th when I finally finished packing my stuff to back of truck with my parents and went to bed. I couldn't sleep well that day since it was my last night...
Categories:UNC-Asheville Asheville, NC North Carolina WNC Madison County NC Transylvania County NC Pisgah Forest Adventure hiking backpacking college university life nature trees rivers french broad river rafting
|Updated: 4:08 AM GMT on August 19, 2013||Permalink | A A A|
Just your typical 18 years old deaf kid with a high passion for weather and sports :) I plan on majoring in atmospheric sciences at UNC-Asheville.
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