Dry Slot

Christmas Forecast
Posted by: Bogon, 10:15 PM GMT on December 24, 2011 +0
The solstice has come and gone, and Christmas is here. Here in the Southeast we're still waiting for winter.

You can see it in my yard. We have rose bushes that are still setting blooms. There is a Pelargonium out by the street that freezes back each winter. So far it's a little brown around the edges, but it's still going.

.SYNOPSIS...

It's all about zonal flow.

The jet stream has been sweeping storms directly east into the Atlantic. None of them hangs around long. They don't have a chance to deepen or tap into Arctic air. The Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation remain resolutely positive.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

First of all, there will be none of this.



Last year this was the scene at my mother's house. Here in the Dry Slot we had flurries that delighted the children of my in-laws visiting from Florida. Those folks are here again this year, but no snow for the kids this time around.

Yesterday's forecast gave a 30% chance of rain on Christmas day, but today's says mostly sunny. I'm not complaining.

There should be a lot of this.



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

This week the outlook calls for highs in the fifties and lows in the thirties. There's a chance of rain Tuesday, otherwise sunny -- except at night, which is a major fraction of the day this time of year. Expect stars.

If you look at the latest graph for the NAO, there are hints that the sunny forecast may change next month.



Maybe winter will arrive at last.

It's about time.

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1. Bogon 10:34 PM GMT on December 24, 2011    
The principal item of fallout from my recent birthday was a new camera. Here's a sample:



I'm still learning how to use the new toy. It's got more bells and whistles than you can shake a stick at. This picture is remarkable to me, because I could not have taken it with my old camera.
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2. ycd0108 12:31 AM GMT on December 25, 2011    
How come You get to use the camera so early? My gift was an "American Standard" 6 Litre but I have not yet needed to check it out. It is also my gift to the person I sleep with 'cause it is the "ensuite" toilet and if one of us gets up in the night (usually myself) and flushes the old one would run on and on and you never knew whether the thing was going to fill up or just keep on runnin'.
Have a Merry Christmas!
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3. Bogon 5:14 AM GMT on December 25, 2011    
Hey, ycd. The camera was a birthday present, given to me six days ago. I've had time to start reading the manual and everything!

The house Wife and I inhabit came with some of the worst toilets I have ever seen. The brand is famous for its "bold look". The company may have designers on its payroll, but they need to hire some engineers. Those toilets don't flush. They clog.

We have replaced two out of three toilets in the house with a Japanese brand, Toto. The new units are amazing. I don't mind advertising for them, because I am a satisfied customer.
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4. masshysteria 4:09 PM GMT on December 25, 2011    
Hi Bogon!

A belated Happy Birthday to you! Hope your new camera continues to bring you much enjoyment in the days ahead. We always enjoy the wonderful pics you take and post of some of the beautiful scenery in your area, etc.

We woke up to a frigid 17F degrees this Christmas morn, but thankful no snowstorms are on the horizon today or throughout the week! Guess Santa was overly busy this year to respond to my Christmas wish for just natural warmth. LOL!

Nevertheless, .....

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5. Bogon 6:26 PM GMT on December 25, 2011    
Ho, ho, ho, Mass. We're having a mix of old and new. Mom brought us a couple of family heirlooms, and Wife got a Kindle Fire.

Alas, my Christmas forecast was a bust. It's cloudy. I could blame it on the local NOAA guys, on whose information I based the forecast, but I should have done my homework. The forecast was a rush job.

Down here in the non-sunny south land it is fifty degrees. Cool. There's a stalled front raining on South Carolina, which accounts for our clouds. NOAA still says sunny tomorrow. (That's what they said yesterday.)
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6. Ylee 4:18 PM GMT on December 27, 2011    
Hi, Bogon! My wife and I are a little less practical than YCD(We got a mattress); never heard of Toto.
"Our flushes are always on time." ;-)

Ripped off from the band Toto's song "Hold the Line". I know, it's bad, lol!

Enjoy the camera! We'll be looking forward to "Favorites: Part 2" !
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7. Barefootontherocks 4:55 PM GMT on December 27, 2011    
Hope you have some sunshine today. Here, sun and 54 already this morning,

Early Happy New Year to you and Mrs. and Mom.
Take care.
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8. Bogon 7:02 PM GMT on December 27, 2011    
Hey, Ylee. Since when are mattresses not practical? Sleep is a good and necessary thing.

And there are other possible, uh, uses. Those can keep you up at night, but most people are willing to sacrifice a little sleep for health and happiness.

Ha, went to YouTube to listen to that song. In the middle of the video the words stop scrolling, and it just says, "Guitar." What a masterpiece of understatement!

I'm looking forward to learning what tricks the new camera can perform, too. One thing it can do is take passable pictures indoors without a flash. It's amazing what a difference that makes.

BF - Tuesday began with rain, but there are signs the sun may return before the day is out. The front is passing. We're moving into the Dry Slot.

I took Mom home yesterday. I was planning to spend the night, but after looking at the forecast, I decided to return immediately. That was a lot of driving, but it was all on dry pavement. I had enough of rainy roads last week.
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9. BriarCraft 6:21 PM GMT on December 30, 2011    
Congrats on the new camera! You'll have lots of fun figuring it out and experimenting with different settings. I may never get an AC for my bird close-ups, but isn't it fun being able to take one? Like you, I never could before. Happy snapping!
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10. sp34n119w 7:14 PM GMT on December 30, 2011    
Daffodils?!?! "Confused" is right! Nice pic, though.
Your sticker says 62 degrees so I guess you can't blame the flowers. It's pushing 70 here ... but that's not too unusual.
Have (more) fun with your birthday present and don't forget to share!
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11. Bogon 7:54 PM GMT on December 30, 2011    
Speaking of waiting for winter, the last picture I uploaded is of daffodils blooming at Christmas time. I have also noticed redbud trees blooming all over town. I started to upload a picture of a tree in bloom, but it came out sideways, so I cancelled. I'll try again later.

These plants are obviously very confused. It is not springtime. The NAO chart in the header seems to be trending ever more believably negative. We have another six weeks of eligibility for seriously cold weather. Snow chances will persist for a similar interval beyond that.

That's the historical picture, anyhow. I suppose global warming may have other plans for this part of the world. Maybe we'll get fire ants, killer bees and malaria instead of a hard freeze.

I happened to tune in Palladia channel last night while they were airing a concert by Rush. Rush was never my favorite band. Their songs all sound the same to me, but seeing them 'live' was impressive. There are only three guys in the band. To make that sound they stay very busy.



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12. RobDaHood 10:30 PM GMT on December 30, 2011    
It's funny down here with the maples,
They bud out 3 or 4 times every winter.
Very confused.
But, it does help them outpace the oaks.
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13. Bogon 6:03 AM GMT on December 31, 2011    
Hi, Rob. Thanks for the tune.

I said Rush is not my favorite band, but that's a relative thing. I'm always glad to hear some Rush. Watching that concert reminded me of how many songs of theirs I instantly recognize without necessarily knowing the words or the titles.

My criticism, if you can call it that, is that their songs have a very consistent sound. They share the same instruments and the same harmonies. The only thing that changes is the tempo and the key. Other than that, no problem. These three guys are excellent musicians -- at least within their genre.

I admit that I've had the luxury of being spoiled by bands like the Beatles, who can seemingly reinvent themselves between the tracks of a single album. The Beatles are probably not my favorite band either, and in this case it could be because of the sheer scope of their talent. Their albums present the listener with a broad mix of styles. Sometimes I'm up for that, sometimes not so much. Or perhaps it would be fair to say I would prefer a different mix, especially if I'm going to listen repeatedly or for long.

For one thing, I really like blues. One doesn't go to the Beatles for blues. The Beatles are too upbeat.

You don't need to have the blues to enjoy the blues. To me, the blues live somewhere very near the center of music. Happy songs (Singing in the Rain!) dip water from the same well of human experience. The funny thing is, that listening to even the darkest, saddest blues... can make me happy. :o)

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14. Bogon 6:07 AM GMT on December 31, 2011    
And here, continuing with the weather theme --

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15. Bogon 7:19 AM GMT on December 31, 2011    
The Rolling Stones are a band that often, down the years, has been compared with the Beatles. Like the Beatles, the Stones are capable of great diversity of expression. One obvious difference is that the Stones, as a group, have been extremely long-lived. In all that time they have surely ventured places musically that I could not gladly follow.

Another difference is that the Stones can and do play the blues. Here's a raw, bleeding example, one that I still have a hard time getting over.

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16. Bogon 7:30 AM GMT on December 31, 2011    
Ho, hum. Methinks it's time to hie to bed. It's going on three o'clock!

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17. SBKaren 11:09 PM GMT on December 31, 2011    
Here's wishing a very Happy and Safe New Year's Eve to everyone - and a grand new 2012 tomorrow morning! Remember, the Rose Parade isn't on until Monday (for those that watch)! I won't know what to do tomorrow morning!

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18. Bogon 2:43 AM GMT on January 01, 2012    
Hi, Karen, and thanks.

We're working on it!
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19. Ylee 11:34 AM GMT on January 01, 2012    
I bet Rush could rock Paperback Writer! :)

Stevie Ray Vaughan remains one of my all-time favorites. Besides, if it wasn't for listening to him, I probably would've never listened to Muddy, Wolf, the Kings, the Iceman, and Buddy Guy!

Wishing you a great 2012!
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20. Bogon 1:44 PM GMT on January 01, 2012    
Yep, we all miss Stevie Ray.



Well, most of us, anyway. Those of us who didn't evacuate to Rio.

Speaking of cold shot, the augurs and predictomancers intimate that we're due for an arctic blast Real Soon Now.

'Bout time, say I.
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21. shoreacres 1:55 PM GMT on January 01, 2012    
Good morning, Bogon, and happy New Year! There's some fine music here - nothing like rockin' into the new year.

You're 30 degrees below us just now. It's an amazement to me that the warmth has held on so long, but it has, despite the north wind. We'll be dropping all day, but just now the windows are still open - and have been for three days. It's just wonderful. I don't quite share your enthusiasm for an arctic blast, but I do know some northerners who are starting to twitch while they wait for their snow. Everyone needs their moisture, in whatever form.

No time to search out a good blues tune for you just now, so I'll leave a little upbeat traveling music that was playing while I was rolling down the bayous. If I were to have a list of songs that invariably make me happy, this one would be on it!

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22. Bogon 2:22 PM GMT on January 01, 2012    
The Beatles might not satisfy all my minimum daily requirements, but I have a feeling I could listen to them for a very long time before I would starve.



I remember when Come Together was released, I heard it several times on the radio before I learned who was playing.

The Beatles? No way!
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23. Bogon 2:30 PM GMT on January 01, 2012    
Ahoy, Shore! Happy new year to you!

You posted Chuck Berry as I was queuing up John Lennon et alii.

I'm in no hurry for snow. I just have a nagging feeling that in this part of the world it ought to get cold sometime during the winter. January is prime time for chill. I worry that if winter doesn't show up soon, we might miss our chance altogether.

There's a parka hanging in my closet that has some wear left in it. If the cold comes, I'll be ready.
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24. Bogon 9:28 PM GMT on January 02, 2012    
Monday, Monday...

Today we have half a dozen bowl games on tap. Let's see, there's the Sticky Wicket Bowl, the Bank Bowl, the Out Back Bowl, the Gator Bowl, the Rose Bowl and the Corn Chip Bowl. Alas, the scheduling is such that several of the games overlap, which makes it impossible for an ardent fan to watch every minute of every game without recording some of them.

I'm not sure we have enough bowls yet. Currently all the football teams playing in post-season games must have tolerably successful records. As a reward they get to have even more fun, one more shot at glory. But what about all the poor fellows who had a rotten season, slogging through game after game with nothing to show for it but contusions, broken bones and concussions?

I propose that we should identify the two worst teams in the NCAA and invite them to play in the [Corporate Sponsor to be Determined] Toilet Bowl. The losers of this game would receive an all expenses paid vacation to Minot, North Dakota. Let it not be said that they played in vain!
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25. shoreacres 4:36 AM GMT on January 03, 2012    
What? Rose Bowl today? I thought that was on New Year's? Obviously, I've not been keeping up.

However. It being a new year and all, and cutting edge sort of being your thing, I thought you'd enjoy this.

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26. sp34n119w 5:58 AM GMT on January 03, 2012    
Happy New Year, Bogon!
I'm having a good time listening to tunes, here, and went off looking for more.

I wasn't a huge fan of these guys until I saw them live on this tour -



The whole album is bluesy but Perry on that one, and on this one, is part of what makes it interesting.

And this Beatles tune is one that made me finally start listening to them, and to more than what was played on the radio -



Not a fan of Rush, can't stand GL's voice or understand much of what he sings, but appreciate the lyrics when I read them. Oh, and that bass :) Definitely fun to watch them in that video.

kthxbai :)

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27. Skyepony (Mod) 6:14 AM GMT on January 03, 2012    
There's snow up there on my mountain..

What a nice collection of tunes gathering in here. Only had a few minutes & could only choose one to listen to. (Yes it was the one about morphine with the awesome crotch shot..)
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28. ycd0108 6:58 AM GMT on January 03, 2012    
I guess my favourite Stones song is that Jazz thing they did: "Can't You Hear Me Knocking?"
Hoo, Boy I gotta come back here more often!
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29. Bogon 2:28 PM GMT on January 03, 2012    
It occurs to me that there might be a problem with my Toilet Bowl proposal.

I never said it was perfect. I was just putting it out there to see whether it drew any comments.

The thing is, awarding the losing team a paid vacation might endanger their status as amateur athletes. (One could argue that the losers of such a game have little enough to brag about as athletes, amateur or otherwise, but let's set that aside.) College football is supposed to be played for the glory of the alma mater. All the student athlete gets out of it is physical fitness (assuming he sustains no career-ending injuries) and a sense of achievement (if, in fact, he achieves anything beyond disappointment).

Winners get a chance to participate in the NFL draft. All financial rewards must be deferred until after the student graduates, drops out, signs with a pro football team, defaults on his student loan or whatever. Maybe we could present the losers of the Toilet Bowl with vouchers redeemable whenever the individual athletes are no longer concerned about their amateur standing. Would that satisfactorily skirt NCAA rules? I could google it, but heck, this is brainstorming, not research.

So there you have it. The winners of the Toilet Bowl go home happy. Finally they can chalk a hash mark in the W column. The losers get to spend, like, three days in sunny Minot. In winter. When they're, like, thirty years old. They can sit there in Happy Joe's Pizza and reflect on the capricious nature of destiny. Or something.

Hmmph. This whole discussion was motivated by a desire to succor the perennial losers, who are condemned to sit glumly at home watching all these bowl games with no hope of ever participating. Now look where we've ended up. I'm not sure this is helping. As much as the eternal optimist in me wants to deny it, there may be some problems for which there is no simple remedy.

shoreacres - That USBtypewriter may be clunky, but it would likely be an improvement over the touch screen keyboard on the iPad. We can hope that unmitigated authenticity offsets any perceived absence of sleek design.

Alas, I do sometimes wonder how much authenticity counts for in this modern world of ours. Do you have any idea how many commercials one must endure in the course of watching six bowl games? Neither do I, and I doubt that an accurate count would make either of us feel better. Advertising on this scale reminds me of carpet bombing the Ho Chi Minh Trail. Let's nuke the general area just in case Charlie sticks his nose out.

Speaking of the modern world, as of 2011 there were right around three dozen bowls scheduled over a period of more than three weeks. They won't be done until next Monday.

sp34n119w - How could I forget Aerosmith?

The first time I heard this group, it was on the eight track player in my roommate's Javelin. Forty years of longevity goes a long way toward explaining how Aerosmith became America's best-selling rock and roll band.

They have never sold anything to me, and I absolutely cannot explain why. I reckon I've been missing out for all these years. Perhaps I should wander over to the Magic Mushroom and ponder the caprices of fate.

That Beatles song is another example where they ventured toward the heavy, bluesy side of things. One wonders how the world might have turned out differently, if they hadn't run out of tape right there.

Skyepony - Yep, snow on your mountain and a chill in the air down here in the flatlands. The high temperature forecast for today is 34°. It is currently 28°. The low tonight will drop to near 20°.

The cold won't last, though. Tomorrow the mercury tops out at a balmy 43°.

Ah, yes, the infamous Sticky Fingers album. Looks like there's a big hanky in the pocket of those jeans. Useful, no doubt, for wiping away residual stickiness.

ycd0108 - Glad you're enjoying our new year's celebration. Stop by any time.
Here's one of my favorite Stones numbers. I conjecture that it appeals to me because I'm a primate.

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30. sp34n119w 8:05 PM GMT on January 03, 2012    
If you get a chance, Bogon, see Aerosmith live. Seriously, I was blown away at their skill and showmanship, and it gave me a whole new appreciation for their music. I think that when listening on the radio, or whatever, they are so good, so seamless and in sync, that you just can't tell how good they are as individuals. If that makes sense.

Anywho ... a cool picture of the Beatles, which I found this morning on John Scalzi's twitter feed, which is kind of an odd coincidence.
Enjoy your cold - it's over 80 degrees here :)
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31. Bogon 2:01 PM GMT on January 04, 2012    
Seventeen degrees when I woke up. Hello, Jack Frost.

Paradoxically, today is perihelion.

sp. after reading your exegesis I spent the rest of the afternoon listening to Aerosmith on YouTube. I thought about why, given four decades of opportunity, I had never bought an Aerosmith recording.

First of all, back in the day, when I was young and impressionable and responding unwittingly to peer pressure etc., when I was buying most of the music that helped form my tastes and identity -- back then I had roommates, and the roommates had records, and among their records was Aerosmith. So I could listen to Aerosmith all I wanted without necessarily buying any.

I've been able to afford my own digs for many years now, so there must be another explanation. Here we have another band, like Rush, that has a characteristic sound. If you like that sound, then this band is for you. I guess that I have always found Aerosmith a bit disappointing in that regard. Take their hit song, Sweet Emotion, for example.



We're treated to one minute of utterly beguiling intro, then the song reverts to Aerosmith's standard fare. The introductory theme never comes back. It does not inform the rest of the song. It feels like something that was tacked on, not an integral part of the structure of the music. I can't help feeling that there's something missing, something more to explore. In fact, I feel that there ought to be an entire undiscovered country behind that intro, and a band with greater vision or artistic integrity might have found a way in.

Don't get me wrong, I like this song. There was a time when I played it loud and often.

But I never bought the record.

As for seeing the band live, the problem is one of location. I don't live in a major entertainment market area. I'm not quite as far off the map as joealaska, but I expect that seeing Aerosmith would entail a road trip. Right now the band is off in Rio or someplace. I'll watch for play dates in my vicinity.
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32. Skyepony (Mod) 3:29 PM GMT on January 04, 2012    
Jack frost was here too. Since left..55 now.

I always was a little annoyed in that video how the intro goes on & they talk over about the whole song. Many set ups I couldn't here it.. Never more clear than on my PC set up this morning.

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33. Bogon 6:45 PM GMT on January 04, 2012    
Good morning, Skye. Temps are approaching forty here now. I have been outside, and it doesn't feel bad at all. The sun is shining. The sky is blue. The wind is calm. Nice day for a brisk walk.

Aerosmith's album Toys in the Attic, which featured the song Sweet Emotion, appeared in 1975. Cable network MTV opened for business in 1981. Therefore it's safe to say that the video is an afterthought. The music came first. Indeed the copyright notice on YouTube indicates that this video dates from 1991, or sixteen years after the song was published.

My remarks above are about the music, audio only. If I were reviewing the video, I might be kinder, especially if I thought the music and video were conceived in one piece. The music complements the story arc of the video very well. On the other hand, the content of the video bears no relation to the lyrics of the song. Not that it's easy to tell with this hard rock genre -- I had to google the lyrics.

I don't mean to suggest that it's a bad thing for a band to have a characteristic sound. If a group of musicians has fans, sticking closely to the band's core competence will minimize the chances of alienating those fans. I'm simply pointing out that this can be a kind of self-imposed limitation. Some groups, e. g. the Beatles and the Stones, routinely push their limits. If they do it well, they can gather fans from outside their native musical range.

I recently acquired a couple of CDs from James McMurtry, an artist I discovered over on Barefoot's blog. McMurtry's tunes are all the same. Except for occasional changes in pace and instrumentation they could almost be the same song. What I like about McMurtry's work is the words. For one thing, you can actually hear them over the music. McMurtry is a balladeer. He paints pictures with his words.



Popular song lyrics often take the form, "I really like waking up next to your warm cushiony butt each morning!" (I made that up. :) It's a noble sentiment and accessible to all, but it doesn't travel well. Once you climb out of bed, put on your clothes and venture into the light of day, this insight appears less momentous. McMurtry has something to say about the wider American landscape.

I guess part of what I'm saying here is that life is a journey. I've had a personal relationship with music for over half a century. In all that time my tastes have changed.

So be it.
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34. sp34n119w 4:59 AM GMT on January 05, 2012    
Because the sky is blue
it makes me cry-yyyyy

BeCAAUUSE
the SKYYY
is blUUUU-oooooo-oooo

I bought Abbey Road today!
You started it by posting Come Together, which sent me looking for She's so Heavy, and reminded me how much I like that album. Then, oddly, Scalzi tweeted that pre-pic pic. Today, in the bargain bin at B&N, they had a weird album-cover-sized metal picture of the, well, album cover. Still, I went into the not-book section looking only for Beethoven and Mozart (specific recordings that they did not have) and also a documentary on dvd. Got the dvd and a different Beethoven recording and went to check out when the guy tells me, "Buy two, get one free" and I say, "Well, you don't have what I'm looking f ... WAIT!!!" and I ran off to find Abbey Road. Hey, I know a sign when I see one (or three).

I rarely buy music anymore. Most of what I have is on LP or cassette and doesn't get much play. Having this cd is a good thing.

On a side note: checking online I found that the Mozart I wanted, reallyreallyreally wanted, is no longer available on cd! Not new, anyway. Unless you're willing to pay $152. Yeah, no.
Amazon does have it for download.
So, I sat here in front of my little box, with my headphones on, in a comfy chair, eating popcorn, playing solitaire, and listened to the Beatles while downloading Mozart.
I love living in the future!

Ahem. Literally that entire comment, up to the last line there, is nothing but a setup for that last line, which I was thinking during the experience, and which would not have made much sense if I'd posted that alone, so I started working backwards to the point where the journey to that thought began, and decided to share that process here, since you started it, and all.
I'll get me hat ...
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35. sp34n119w 5:02 AM GMT on January 05, 2012    
P.S. I enjoyed your comments at 31 and 33, and would like to respond, but, you know, all caught up in myself at the moment ...
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36. Bogon 8:38 AM GMT on January 05, 2012    
sp, I remember when Abbey Road came out, my English teacher devoted an entire class period to listening to it in its entirety.

She was quite young, in her first or second year of teaching. We all loved her forever afterward.
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37. Bogon 7:15 AM GMT on January 06, 2012    
I know I've posted this tune before. There's a reason for that. It never fails to satisfy. I had a hankering to hear it again tonight.



Here on this page I've talked about a number of groups that are not my favorites. I can't say that about Procol Harum. I may not like every single song, but there are definitely some, like this one, that I would not like to live without.
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38. Bogon 10:16 AM GMT on January 06, 2012    
More and more I'm hearing talk of teleconnections and pattern change. The stratosphere over the pole is warming. La Niña may be ending. The Arctic Oscillation is going negative. The North Atlantic Oscillation is poised for a drop. The Madden-Julian Oscillation has been wavering over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific.

What does it all mean weather-wise? Well, here in the Southeast, not much at all so far. Jack Frost seems to be cranking the chill up a notch, but verily 't is the season. If not now, when?

The part about the AO means that a pool of cold air will settle over Hudson Bay. That will affect the northern tier from the Great Lakes into New England. The storm track will shift southward a bit. A frontier between arctic cold and southern warmth will set up across the mid-Atlantic states. There will be recurring chances for snow and wind along that line.

The Dry Slot is located just south of that zone. On average this area should be on the warmer side, especially while La Niña persists.

The NAO is the wild card. If that goes negative we can get an omega blocking pattern, which would allow cold air to penetrate far southward. Storms looping around the jet stream would have time to deepen and develop into nor'easters. That hasn't happened so far this winter.
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