New Pacific tropical disturbance forms, no threat to land
In the eastern Pacific, an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave has formed several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Earlier today, the tropical disturbance is classified as Invest 90E. Satellite imagery reveals that the incipient disturbance has disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. 90E is situated in favorable atmospheric conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28.5°C, moderate wind shear at 10 – 15 knots, and moist environment. Additionally, scatterometer data suggests that the disturbance has an elongated surface center. The National Hurricane Center is giving 90E a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days.
Forecast for 90E
SHIPS model shows that conditions is forecasted to remain favorable for the disturbance over the next three days. Furthermore, some other models predict 90E to become a minimal tropical storm in the next few days. Thus, I expect the system to gradually organize and strengthen to a tropical storm by the next several days. After four days, however, it is forecasted to enter into unfavorable conditions with cooler sea surface temperatures less than 26°C, higher wind shear, and drier atmospheric environment. These conditions should weaken the system gradually. The tropical disturbance is anticipated to move generally west-northwestward over the next several days by a building high pressure ridge to the north of the disturbance. By the next four days, the system could turn westward. Models are forecasting it to move west-northwestward over the next several days. 90E is not expected to threaten any land areas.
Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).
The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting significant tropical cyclone development in the next seven days. Although models are forecasting the trough split over the Atlantic in the next 24 to 48 hours, tropical cyclone development is unlikely to occur.