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By: CybrTeddy, 8:01 PM GMT on February 05, 2012
Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Sunday, February 5th, 2012. In my last few years of blogging, I never thought I'd have to do a tropical weather update on the 5th of February, but this is certainly an exceptional circumstance with the tropics. Over the last few days, I have half heartily been monitoring the Global Forecasting System (GFS) computer runs and it has been on and off with spinning up a sub-tropical cyclone. Naturally, I dismissed the premises. How rare is it to get a system in February I thought. But now, it seems the situation has changed. A system is brewing between Cuba and the Yucatan, dubbed invest 90L. This system is, believe it or not, fairly well organized and is perhaps one of the more well organized systems I have seen this time of year.
(fig 1. Invest 90L in the Yucatan straight)
Satellite reveals slow organization with the system, in the face though of 20-25 knot shear, and with dry stable air wrapping into the main core of this system, and cupolaed with the fact of cool SST's this system will be sub-tropical and short lived in nature. This system's existence however is a testament to just how extreme and above average this winter has been, SST's are already on a warming trend as temperatures in my own area even in Florida are in the 80s every day, and yesterday they even got up to 85 degrees. Water temperatures right where 90L is situated, are a warm 80 degrees which supports further development.
(fig 2. Wind shear analysis for 90L, rather low in its area)
I will post an update later tomorrow if the system continues its organizational trend. It will be interesting to see if or when the National Hurricane Center will mention it, and what odds they give it. Nonetheless, I will monitor the situation closely.