Watching out for possible Caribbean mischief 7/15/10
Afternoon all! My discussion will be brief today but I hope you enjoy it. A disturbance has developed in the SW Caribbean, albeit highly disorganized it is generating convection around what appears to be a developing low. This does not exactly mean development, other than we might see a watchable low pressure center develop within the next 24-48 hours of this post. What's interesting though is that we're starting to see some models 'come out of the closet' as I would say with this system. The ECMWF picks up the low in 48 hours or so with a 1010 mb low and some convection and takes it WNW into Central America. NOGAPS has been highly consistent with developing a TS in the Caribbean taking it WNW also into Central America but doesn't kill it off and keeps it stronger. CMC shows a brief low pressure center developing before killing it off, GFS parallel develops a TD/TS and takes it WNW before killing it off as well. I see no reason to doubt that a low pressure center will develop but the question remains if it will have enough time to organize before hitting Central America. The disturbance is in a area of relatively weak steering currents and will meander but should eventually head WNW slowly.
We have good model consensus on a low that will form, the conditions in the Caribbean are good and I see no other reason other than land interaction that this disturbance shouldn't attempt to get its act together, unless its another TD2 or Alex type situation. Personally the genesis reminds me of Ida and Paloma.