CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog
Alberto meandering off the US Coast - 5/20/12
Posted by: CybrTeddy, 12:46 PM GMT on May 20, 2012 +5
Good morning and welcome to my tropical weather update for Sunday, May 20th, 2012. The main story today is Tropical Storm Alberto, currently located at 31.7°N 79.3°W. Maximum sustained winds are at 50mph with higher gusts, and Alberto is moving west-southwest at 6mph. Satellite shows that Alberto is a fragile and small system, which last night out of no where became a 60mph Tropical Storm. That can happen often with these small storms, even in an unfavorable environment, they can wind up fast and they can also loose steam fast as Alberto also did overnight.

(figure 1. Current satellite image of Alberto)

Where will Alberto go?
Alberto is currently moving WSW, but that direction is expected to change as Alberto interacts with a non-tropical low and a front oncoming towards the system. It's forward speed should decelerate and become stationary by 2pm or so as a deep-layered ridge of the United States weakens, after that Alberto should generally begin to move in a more northerly direction by later today and should eject to sea with only a novice to shipping.

(figure 2. Current NHC track of Alberto)

How strong will Alberto get?
Alberto has probably peaked in intensity. It is rare to get May storms as it is, but Alberto was in terms of pressure yesterday at 995mb the strongest May tropical cyclone since Hurricane Alma in 1970. Alberto is a small system however, and it is more acceptable to things such as slight increase of wind shear which is quite prudent over the Atlantic in May. Alberto's intensity will also be hampered by two non-tropical lows to the north and soon to be the east of the system that will begin to interact with Alberto.

(figure 3. Intensity model forecast of Alberto)

Is Alberto's formation a signal of an active hurricane season?
In short - not really. Alberto is a one-off cyclone, as 2009 also had a tropical cyclone off the East Coast in May (unnamed) and that season did not have active season at all. These freak systems that develop non-tropically are hard to get and can really happen anytime of the year. If Alberto had developed in the Caribbean, this would be a different story as it would show that shear in the Caribbean would be far below average than it should be for this time of year. Alberto does only to boost the final count this year.

I will have an update tomorrow afternoon.

CybrTed
Updated: 12:48 PM GMT on May 20, 2012   Permalink | A A A
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SPECIAL UPDATE Tropical Storm Alberto. 5/19/2012
Posted by: CybrTeddy, 7:38 PM GMT on May 19, 2012 +1
Good afternoon and welcome to my SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE for Saturday, May 19th, 2012. Throw out your calendars, Hurricane Season is here! Tropical Storm Alberto has developed at 323N, 776W. Maximum sustained winds are at 45 mph. Alberto developed off a trough split that managed to align itself with an Upper Level low in order to protect itself in a more favorable environment, and was very unexpected but with no surprise was predicted to happen for several d...
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Odd 92L in the Atlantic - Another Grace situation? 5/12/12
Posted by: CybrTeddy, 6:09 PM GMT on May 12, 2012 +6
Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Saturday, May 12th, 2012. I wasn't expecting to write up a tropical update - but as always, who does with these kinds of systems? Today we're dealing with 92L out in the North Atlantic by the Azores. 92L is surprisingly well organized for this time of year and this far north, but it shouldn't really surprise everyone that this is happening. SST anomalies are already 1-2C above average in that area, so it's...
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March predictions for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season 3/12/12
Posted by: CybrTeddy, 2:37 PM GMT on March 12, 2012 +7
Good morning everyone and welcome to my second round of seasonal predictions for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season! Since my last update, further parameters have come into play, as expected, and we are able to use those to now get a better scope of what hurricane season might have in store for us. These factors include SAL, SST's, and the ENSO. I will be attempting to provide you with my interpretations on what these mean.African drought to cause the hurricane sea...
Updated: 5:52 PM GMT on March 12, 2012   Permalink | A A A
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Incredible and rare Invest 90L in the Yucatan Straight - 2/5/12
Posted by: CybrTeddy, 8:01 PM GMT on February 05, 2012 +4
Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Sunday, February 5th, 2012. In my last few years of blogging, I never thought I'd have to do a tropical weather update on the 5th of February, but this is certainly an exceptional circumstance with the tropics. Over the last few days, I have half heartily been monitoring the Global Forecasting System (GFS) computer runs and it has been on and off with spinning up a sub-tropical cyclone. Naturally, I dismis...
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