Gasoline and Politics

By: GetReal , 1:36 PM GMT on February 28, 2012

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In my humble opinion, I do believe that the winner of the upcoming Presidential election in November will be decided by the pocketbook issue of gasoline prices. Gasoline prices will directly influence inflation and what we are paying for groceries and other needs. Additionally higher gasoline prices WILL have a direct impact on the alleged economic recovery that the current Obama administration wants us Americans to believe we are experiencing.





















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28. unclemush
7:32 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Member Since: July 7, 2001 Posts: 59 Comments: 13166
27. Some1Has2BtheRookie
7:10 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
This is just my opinion, but what I am seeing here is just an attempt to cover up the weakness of the Republican presidential candidates. Obama has everything working against him, for his re-election. Everything, save one. A strong Republican presidential candidate. Should there be a strong Republican presidential candidate available, then this blog would be pointless, simply because it would not be needed.

The U.S. voters are becoming much more knowledgeable and savvy about how things are done and manipulated to make one party look better than the other, under different circumstances. This, in itself, may make this blog pointless as well since it will be viewed as just more finger pointing.

Put up a viable presidential candidate and I will vote for them. I did not vote for Obama in the last election. You should not confuse me, and many Independents, as one that would vote for, "anybody, but Obama!". We may have a "Pinto" in office now, but do not offer me a "Yugo" as a replacement.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
26. GetReal
6:53 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Myth: The Gulf of Mexico has returned to normal production levels and there is no “permitting freeze” in place. Reality: It would be nice if this was reality, but this simply isn’t the case. The permitting freeze is real and Americans are suffering every day as a result, a fact that can be seen simply by reviewing historical data. Between 2005 and 2010, the annual average number of offshore permits approved sat comfortably at 545. Since May 2010, only 113 permits have been approved. But upon even closer inspection, you find that these 113 permits are actually for only 34 wells since each well requires multiple permits resulting in multiple regulatory hurdles. Only by denying this reality could one conclude there is no dramatic slowdown in permitting. While it is true that the Gulf of Mexico is still producing oil, it is doing so at a much lower rate. According to the U.S. government’s Energy Information Administration, Gulf production is expected to decline to 1.39 million barrels per day in 2012, or 400,000 barrels per day below the average production rate in 2009 (1.7 million barrels per day). Some have suggested that total U.S. production has increased, so the impact on the Gulf must be overstated. But that’s clearly not the case, as the EIA data clearly shows.

Myth: Rigs aren’t leaving the Gulf of Mexico, so our production base there will be fine. Reality: To date, nearly a dozen rigs have left the Gulf since the White House imposed its moratorium last spring, each taking with them hundreds of jobs and millions of dollars in economic potential. In a capital intensive industry like energy production, companies need a predictable permitting process with a commensurately predictable level of permitting. Each day a rig sits idle, that’s millions of dollars in lost revenue. Absent a predictable investment climate, energy companies will move elsewhere, which ultimately means we will import more energy. The fact that more rigs haven’t left doesn’t mean they won’t; it just means they haven’t left yet. Imagine owning a business and paying rent for the space you have in the building, but the local government tells you that you can’t open your doors. You may wait awhile to see what happens, but eventually you’ll find a different location that will allow you to operate and generate revenue so you can pay your bills. And you won’t likely consider the prospect of ever going back, even if the original location changes its rules. Why take the risk of getting shut down again?

Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
25. ricderr
6:06 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
get...no matter what it takes...i'll survive...in fact...i'll make the best out of it...but what i know of you...you're smarter than you're acting by blaming it on a politician you don't like...there's no point in showing the real factors at play here forcing gas prices up...because i'm pretty darn sure you already know them...but if this blog gig makes you happy...by all means...go for it
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
24. GetReal
6:05 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Sky I do have to disagree on the Keystone pipeline. The pipeline can be built safely, and create a number of construction and support related jobs in those areas. There are hundreds of thousands of miles of pipelines in this country and coastal waters, that are being safely operated.

Make no mistake about it, IMO, the Keystone pipeline will be built, even if Obama is re-elected as payback for union support. He will no longer need heed the wishes of the greens after the election.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
23. Skyepony (Mod)
5:53 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Thanks for the different feedbacks to Nelson's thoughts..

Get Real~ One of Nelson's point is we gave up 8million prime acres in the GOM. Doesn't even mention the recent land give in Alaska. We gave into drill baby drill & speculators are still running wild. They took their restrictions away in 2000.

Glad to see him not backing Keystone. There is no way to protect that huge water reserve for a large slice of the country & to risk our water so corporations could refine & sell it to other counties is not helping US.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
22. GetReal
5:32 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Thanks Ric I will continue to post what you desribe as gloom and doom, but what I and many others call reality.

I know, like many others around here, that a $100 dollar bill does not buy nearly as much at Walmart as it once did three years ago. Hell it takes $50 or more now to fill up the average late model mid-size automobile gas tank now.

So ric you can continue to make up your excuses for yourself, and convince yourself that you and the rest of the country are doing just fine!

Check back with me when the national average for regular unleaded gasoline is $4.50 come Memorial Day weekend.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
21. GetReal
5:20 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Energy Secretary Chu Admits Administration OK with High Gas Prices



Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
20. ricderr
5:14 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
seems the cpi covers what i spend monthly and yearly...but you keep up the doom and gloom ;-)



What goods and services does the CPI cover?
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W) BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups. Major groups and examples of categories in each are as follows:

FOOD AND BEVERAGES (breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full service meals, snacks)
HOUSING (rent of primary residence, owners' equivalent rent, fuel oil, bedroom furniture)
APPAREL (men's shirts and sweaters, women's dresses, jewelry)
TRANSPORTATION (new vehicles, airline fares, gasoline, motor vehicle insurance)
MEDICAL CARE (prescription drugs and medical supplies, physicians' services, eyeglasses and eye care, hospital services)
RECREATION (televisions, toys, pets and pet products, sports equipment, admissions);
EDUCATION AND COMMUNICATION (college tuition, postage, telephone services, computer software and accessories);
OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES (tobacco and smoking products, haircuts and other personal services, funeral expenses).
Also included within these major groups are various government-charged user fees, such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls. In addition, the CPI includes taxes (such as sales and excise taxes) that are directly associated with the prices of specific goods and services. However, the CPI excludes taxes (such as income and Social Security taxes) not directly associated with the purchase of consumer goods and services.

The CPI does not include investment items, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and life insurance. (These items relate to savings and not to day-to-day consumption expenses.)

Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
19. GetReal
4:48 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Inflation: Not as low as you think
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
18. NavarreMark
4:29 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Sorry for the duel post folks. Must've been a hickup.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3827
17. NavarreMark
4:29 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Banning the trade in gasoline futures would not be wise. Many fuel intensive industries, such as airlines, need to lock in their future price of fuel since it is such a large part of their overhead.

Raising the margin rate on futures trading would decrease the amount of speculation though.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3827
16. NavarreMark
4:26 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Banning trading in gasoline futures would not be wise. Many industries such as airlines, need to lock in their future fuel price in advance for obvious reasons since it is a large part of their overhead, however, if they raised the margin on commodities trading it would cut down on alot of the speculation.
Member Since: September 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3827
15. GetReal
4:11 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
14. GetReal
4:00 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
13. GetReal
3:50 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
12. oregonbirdofprey
3:47 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Premium gas at $3.98 in Portland yesterday. Agree with most of this blog. Of course I don't want to see ANWAR opened up and even if the keystone pipeline gets built there will be too few jobs and apparently no oil at all for America from it. I don't believe there's much the President (any President) can do to effect gas prices short term. Short sighted, knee-jerk reason to cast a ballot one way or the other, IMO.
Member Since: September 26, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 955
11. GetReal
3:41 PM GMT on March 01, 2012
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
10. ricderr
5:38 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
please do not remove this blog.....since it's been up oil prices and gas futures have declined everyday...you're a great american!!!!!
Member Since: June 27, 2006 Posts: 673 Comments: 21639
9. GetReal
3:37 PM GMT on February 29, 2012
Check out the link above to the U.S. national gas price heat map.... It is very enlightening to watch the red spread west to east across the U.S.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
8. NumberWise
8:26 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Today here in upstate NY, regular is $3.96 and premium is $4.20.
Member Since: October 22, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1701
7. airman45
8:21 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Love your gas station sign. Saw one once that said, in order from the top:

Arm
Leg
First Born
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3507
6. seflagamma
8:17 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Hi GR, You are back!!!!!

Glad to see you here again!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 298 Comments: 40903
5. airman45
8:13 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Equivalent to $8.46 per U.S. gallon today.

Im in Europe, of course. The math:

Gas station sign says 1.64.

1.64 Euro per liter. $1.37 per Euro today.
1.64 x 1.37 = $2.24 per liter
$2.24 x 3.78 liters per U.S gallon = $8.46 per U.S. gallon.

Politics? Of course. 75% of the price in Germany is taxes.
Member Since: April 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3507
4. GetReal
6:46 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
I hate to admit it, but I will agree with Nelson on this issue of the oil speculation market, and the dealing of oil futures.

Speculators would be unable to bid up the price if there was more of a will to drill-baby-drill increasing the domestic crude supply.

It would have helped if we would have developed the ANWAR field 10 years ago...
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
3. Skyepony (Mod)
4:21 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Got this e-mail from Sen. Bill Nelson the other day...looks like he's sponsoring a bill. Not sure how effective it would be. What ya'll think? Getting around $3.80 in east central Florida.

Dear Friends,

Gas prices most places are pushing $4 a gallon - again. And news reports say it could be $5 or more by summertime. That’s outrageous – and unjustified.

Whether it’s the continuing threat of unrest in the Middle East or the lure of quick profit, the price of oil is driven in big part by traders, speculators and, of course, fear.

There’s been unrest in the Middle East for thousands of years, as we’re seeing right now with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Every time we’re faced with this international uncertainty, especially in the Middle East, we’re reminded why we must get off of foreign oil. Nothing’s going to eliminate the volatility in oil prices like becoming less dependent on foreign energy sources.

But we’ve also got to stop a new brand of oil trader who has emerged in the last decade, a middle man of sorts, who’s also driving up the price we pay at the pump.

Many experts agree we should not allow these traders to bid up the price of oil and flip futures contracts like condos. Yet in the last ten years the share of the oil market controlled by investors and speculators has more than doubled.

During the same time, American drivers have seen the price of gas at the pump go from about $1.56 per gallon to around $3.61 per gallon or more. By bidding up oil futures, speculators also increase costs for our airlines, industrial energy users and other businesses. And these higher costs are passed on to consumers like you and me.

Fact is, the level of speculation in today’s energy markets greatly exceeds the historic norm. If you want to know the truth, it’s partly the fault of broken-down policies from a Congress dominated by partisanship and extremism. Congress deregulated oil traders in December 2000. And it hasn’t tackled a comprehensive alternative energy policy since Nixon and Carter first talked about one in the 1970s.

Anyone can push for gas-tax holidays and the Keystone Pipeline. In fact, I support the pipeline as long as it’s in an area where it’s not as much of a threat to the entire Midwest water supply and we require that the oil stay here at home and not be sold to foreign countries.

We’ve already given the oil companies more than eight million more prime acres in which to drill in the Gulf of Mexico. Now we should curb the activities of speculators. And, in the long term, we must develop alternatives to gasoline.

I think Congress should pass legislation that aims to drastically limit the ability of speculators to artificially drive up energy prices. If this bill passes, there would be the first-ever limits on how much of the oil market speculators can control. The chief cosponsor of my bill is Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV).

Plain and simple: the legislation says no single investor could hold more than 5 percent of the oil futures market, thereby greatly reducing speculators ability to manipulate prices.

Does this sound like an idea you could support? Please let me know. Also, let me know what else you think we could do to bring down gas prices.

Sincerely,

Bill Nelson
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37852
2. GetReal
2:08 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Here in NOLA metro area unbranded regular unleaded is averaging $3.56 a gallon; the name brand is averaging $3.70.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8874
1. unclemush
1:49 PM GMT on February 28, 2012
Hi GR 3.79 in Iron Mountain.
Member Since: July 7, 2001 Posts: 59 Comments: 13166

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About GetReal

No Environmental Science, or Meteorolgy degrees to be found here. All I can offer is three decades of experience observing tropical Atlantic systems.

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