WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FROM THE GETREAL WEATHER CLOSET:

TS FAY MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA... FAY IS CURRENTLY APPROXIMATELY 30 MILES ESE OF FORT MEYERS. FL. ON A SLOW NORTH TO NNE TRACK... FAY SHOWING SIGNS OF STALLING SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF A TAMPA TO MELBOURNE LINE!!!







The GetReal 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast:

16 Named Storms
08 Hurricanes
04 Major Hurricanes (Category 3+)




CLIMITOLOGICAL LIKELY TRACKS














TROPICAL ATLANTIC VIEW













BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY CONTINUES TO BATTER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 300 PM EDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES...30 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER FLORIDA. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN FAY MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...125
KM/HR...WAS MEASURED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 300 PM EDT POSITION...27.1 N...81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA






TS FAY





TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO
48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR
THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR
GEORGIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 26.7N 81.3W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0000Z 27.9N 80.9W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 20/1200Z 28.9N 80.6W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 80.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 22/1200Z 30.6N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1200Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA










CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS






CURRENT SHEAR






CURRENT STEERING PATTERNS





CURRENT DAILY SST




THE GetReal TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, AUGUST 19, 2008.

TS Fay is currently inland, approximately
35 miles ESE of Fort Meyers, Fl. TS Fay has
begun to show some signs of slowing down
the forward motion toward the NNE. This
deceleration is probably the result of
friction with the land, and the building
high to the north and east of the system.
I would not be surprised to see Fay stall
over the Florida Penninsular, somewhere
south of a Tampa to Melbourne line.



CONUS SURFACE ANALYSIS










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