TC Leepi/Emong - Sea South Of Okinawa

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET December 31 2011
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (968 hPa) located at 16.0S 75.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S.0.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 160-180 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 17.0S 75.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 17.9S 74.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.4S 74.1E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 19.6E 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempete Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

For the last 6 hours, system intensity is stationary. Present intensity analysis at 80 kt is based on manual Dvorak estimate with an average DT number at 5.1 for a 3 hours and 6 hours average. Since 1400 PM UTC, ADT is between 5.1 and 5.5. A mid level ridge, located to the east of the system, is steering the system on a south-westward then south-southwestward track towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, Benilde should not have the time to move out of the tropical area in this weakness. All available guidance suggest that the meridian track should stop between monday morning and tuesday morning as a low to mid-level ridge should build from the southwest.

It remains some uncertainty about the exact track of the system at this time range of the forecast track, but latest numerical outputs depict a slower motion and a westward to north-westward recurvature. The official current track forecast reflects this scenario. Environmental conditions are good with a weak north-easterly windshear (10 kt according shear CIMSS analysis), excellent divergence aloft depicted by a very well cirrus outflow and warm sea surface temperatures in the 28C range. On its meridian track, Benilde should gradually encounter cooler sst and stronger westerly windshear. After a maximum that should be reached within the next 24 hours, system intensity should weaken.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST January 1 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 5.0N 104.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
9:00 AM FST January 1 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1007 hPa) located at 23.1S 155.6W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible and infrared satellite imagery and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization has not improved significantly and convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation is from surface to 700 HPA. The system lies under an upper trough and highly sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 PM RET January 1 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (968 hPa) located at 16.6S 75.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 220 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 17.8S 74.9E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.7S 74.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.0S 73.9E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.3E 73.2E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)

Additional Information
======================

For the last hours, system has weakened. It seems that drier air is wrapping into the southern part of the system. Current intensity is maintained at 80 kt, but for a 3 hours and 6 hours average, DT has decreased at 4.6. Adt is again too high at 5.6.

Within the next 36 hours, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. Benilde is expected to move south southwestward towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. It remains under the steering influence of a mid level ridge located to the east of the system. In relationship with dry air intrusion, there are some uncertainties about the forecast intensity despite rather good environmental conditions. Beyond 36 hours, system should encounter southwestward rebuilding low-mid level high pressures. Numerical weather prediction models diverge about final track. ECMWF is faster and keeps a southward track for a longer time before a clear deceleration, as most of others models forecast a westward tracks with easterly low-mid level flow. Official forecast track is between both options. It is expected that system rapidly weakens by encountering cooler AST and strengthening westerly vertical wind shear.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST January 1 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 6.0N 103.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 1 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (974 hPa) located at 16.8S 74.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southern semi-circle, extending up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 17.8S 74.3E - 60 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.7S 73.8E - 55 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
48 HRS: 19.5S 72.3E - 45 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
72 HRS: 19.5E 71.2E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)

Additional Information
======================

For the last hours, system is going on weakening. It seems that drier air is wrapping into the southern part of the system. Within the next 36 hours, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. Benilde is expected to move south-southwestward towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. It remains under the steering influence of a mid-level ridge located to the east of the system.

In relationship with dry air intrusion, there are some uncertainties about the forecast intensity despite rather good environmental conditions. Beyond 36 hours, system should encounter southwestward rebuilding low-mid level high pressures. numerical weather prediction models diverge about final track. ECMWF is faster and keeps a southward track for a longer time before a clear deceleration, as most of others models forecast a westward track with easterly low-mid level flow.

Official forecast track is between both options. It is expected that system rapidly weakens by encountering cooler sst and mainly a clearly strengthening westerly vertical wind shear.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST January 1 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 6.0N 103.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONE TROPICAL BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 1 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Benilde (976 hPa) located at 17.7S 74.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 18.6S 74.2E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.4S 73.5E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.0S 72.3E - 55 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.9E 70.8E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)

Additional Information
======================

For the very last hours, system show an clearly improving clouds signature, with again a circular
eye, cooler central dense overcast. The system seems to have got over with that drier air causing the weakening of the last night. It seems to be always an opportunity of intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours with the persistent good poleward channel before the progressive deterioration of upper level conditions.

Within the next 24 hours, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. Benilde is expected to move south-southwestward towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. It remains under the steering influence of a mid level ridge located to the east of the system. Beyond 36 hours, system should encounter southwestward rebuilding low-mid level high pressures. Numerical weather prediction models diverge about final track up to 60 hours, mainly in the speed of the displacement westwards,
On the northern edge of the subtropical ridge, depending of the effect of the ridge over Mascareignes, and the intensity of the system. Official forecast track is a consensus of the different models. However it is expected that system rapidly weakens by encountering cooler sea surface temperatures and mainly a clearly strengthening westerly vertical wind shear up to 60 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
FORTE TEMPERTE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 1 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (980 hPa) located at 18.7S 74.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80-85 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 19.7S 73.9E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.3S 73.4E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 20.4S 71.9E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
72 HRS: 20.0E 70.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Latest microwave imagery (SSMIS at 1300z and 1452z) show that the northern eyewall has collapsed. On infrared imagery, the eye pattern, still present at 1200z, has deteriorated and is shifting towards an embedded center pattern. 6 hours average manual T number is at 4.2 on line with an ADT T number estimate of 4.1 at 1730z but lower than the estimation at 5.0 of PGTW. Considering the weakening trend over the past 24 hours and the microwave data, the system is downgraded as a severe tropical storm.
Comparison of mmidrowave fix and classical imagery fix reveals a tilt towards the southeast of the vertical structure of the system. This is in agreement with the CIMSS shear analysis that indicate an upwards trend of the northwesterly shear between 1200z and 1800z from 12 knots to 17 knots. Consequently, the intensity forecast is lowered from the previous advisory.

Within the next 24 hours, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement. Benilde is expected to move south-southwestward towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge. It remains under the steering influence of a mid level ridge located to the east of the system. Beyond, system should encounter a southwestward rebuilding low-mid level high pressures. Numerical weather prediction models diverge about the speed of the westwards motion after that, on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge, depending of the effect of the ridge over Mascareignes, and the intensity of the system. Official forecast track is a consensus of the differents models. However it is expected that system rapidly weakens by encountering cooler sea surface temperature and a strengthening westerly vertical wind shear.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
FORTE TEMPERTE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 1 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (979 hPa) located at 19.3S 74.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80-85 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern and southwestern quadrant and up to 145 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 20.3S 73.7E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.3S 73.1E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 20.7S 71.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.3E 71.50 - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Comparison of AMSU microwave data from yesterday afternoon (1027z) and tonight (2059z) show
That the internal structure has somewhat improved with a complete eye pattern seen on the latest
AMSU microwave data. On classical imagery, the cloud pattern has been an embedded center pattern for most of the previous 6 hours. 6 hours average DT is at 4.5 but met and pt are at 4.0. The improvement of the internal structure depicted above should be a short term feature. The system remains under a moderate northwesterly shear (15 kt according the 00z shear analysis from CIMSS) and is now over 26-27C sea surface temperature. Intensity and depth of circulation seem to be the key factors for the forecast track of benilde. As long as the system maintain enough vertical extension, it should be drive by the mid level high to its east on a polewards track. If the system weakens and looses its vertical depth, it will be steered westwards by the lower levels steering flow maintained by a subtropical ridge present to the south of the system from the ground to 700 HPA. The spread in the current models track seems to mainly come from this point. Consequently significant differences in forward motion of the storm are seen in the various numerical weather prediction solutions.

The present forecast calls for a continued polewards track for the next 12 to 24 hours with a weakening system but with enough vertical extension and after that a gradual turn to the west or to the north west with a filling up low that should be over cooler sea surface temperature, a westerly sheared environment
And with some dry air. Another point is that the low that is currently located to the northwest of the system is expected to merge within the circulation of Benilde Tuesday night or Wednesday by its eastern sector. According to some numerical weather prediction models, the merging of this weak low could affect the track of Benilde by a temporarily northwestwards bend. This possibility is reflected in the current package and delayed significantly the westwards motion compared to the previous advisory. Some models (ECMWF, past runs of GFS) even show a small loop before the system resumes on a westwards track

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
FORTE TEMPERTE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 PM RET January 2 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (979 hPa) located at 19.8S 73.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80-100 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 220 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 20.7S 72.9E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.2S 72.3E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 21.1S 71.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.0E 69.90 - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The last microwave picture (AMSU 0453z) shows that the internal structure of Benilde has little evolved over the past 6 hours. The system remains under a moderate northwesterly shear (15 kt according the 0300z shear analysis from CIMSS) and is now over 26-27C sea surface temperature.

Upper vertical wind shear is forecast to increase overnight. Through 12 to 24 hours, the vertical extension of the system should keep it under the steering influence of the mid troposphere ridge in its east, and track south-westward. Then and after system is forecast to weaken and track westward over the low level subtropical anticyclone.

Another point is that the low that is currently located to the northwest of the system is expected to merge within the circulation of Benilde Tuesday night or Wednesday by its eastern sector. This merging should temporarily influence Benilde's track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
FORTE TEMPERTE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 2 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (980 hPa) located at 20.3S 73.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center extending up to 130 NM from the center in southern sector

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 20.9S 72.5E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 21.5S 71.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.1S 70.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.0E 69.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Last avalaible animated pictures show a phase of destructing of Benilde. The low level circulation center is now partially exposed west of the active convection. Benilde has tracked south-westward at about 6 knots towards barometric col between two high pressure cells in the low and mid troposphere.
north-westerly upper vertical wind shear is estimated at 20kt (CIMSS).

Sea surface temperature are becoming marginal, by the order of 27-26°C. Environmental conditions (vertical wind shear and heat potential) are expected to remain unfavorable for the restrengthening of Benilde. System is forecast to weaken rapidly within the next 24 hours. During Tuesday to Wednesday night, the zone of disturbed weather currently north to northwest of Benilde is forecast to merge with Benilde low level circulation by its eastern sector. According to the merging of these two lows, the present track forecast is rather uncertain.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
FORTE TEMPERTE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 2 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (982 hPa) located at 20.9S 73.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
35 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center extending up to 110 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 21.4S 72.3E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.3S 71.4E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 20.8S 70.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.0E 68.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Associated convection has shown very temporarily a slight renewed of activity in the afternoon, but the system show now clearly a sheared pattern, with a center under the northwestern edge of the convection. Center which is expected to be soon totally exposed with the forecast increase of the vertical wind shear.
Benilde is tracking south-southwestward at about 6kt towards a barometric col between two high pressure cells in the low and mid troposphere, always for some hours under the steering effect of the ridge of middle troposphere in the east of the system. Under unfavorable environmental conditions (vertical wind shear and heat potential)

The system is expected to weaken rapidly.Then the track of the system will be influenced in a first time by the zone of disturbed weather currently north to northwest of Benilde. The system is forecast to
interact (merge) with it. In a second time, the system is expected to track globally westwards on the northern edge of the subtropical highs. Then in the end of the period the track will be more southwards,
With a weakness a the ridge. the present track forecast is rather uncertain, as the different effects are dependent of the intensity of the system

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
FORTE TEMPERTE TROPICALE BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 3 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Benilde (984 hPa) located at 21.4S 73.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center extending up to 100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 21.9S 72.4E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 21.7S 71.8E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 21.3S 70.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.4E 69.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The system show now clearly a sheared pattern, with a center under the northwestern edge of the convection. Center which is expected to be soon totally exposed with the forecast increase of the vertical wind shear. Under unfavorable environmental conditions (vertical wind shear and heat potential) the system is weakening rapidly. Then the track of the system will be influenced in a first time by the zone of disturbed weather currently north to northwest of Benilde. The system is forecast to interact (merge) with it. In a second time, the system is expected to track globally westwards on the northern edge of the subtropical highs. Then in the end of the period the track of the filling up low will be more southwards, with a weakness a the ridge. The present track forecast is rather uncertain, as the different effects are dependent of the intensity of the system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 3 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Benilde (985 hPa) located at 21.5S 73.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center extending up to 110 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
75 NM radius from center, extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 21.8S 72.7E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 21.4S 72.1E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 21.8S 72.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.2E 69.6E - 25 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The system shows now clearly a sheared feature, with a center partially exposed on the northwestern edge of the deep convective activity. Unfavorable environmental conditions (vertical wind shear and heat potential) lead the system weaken. Under conflicting steering influences (mid to low level ridges westward, southward and eastward and the possibility of interaction with existing low in its north), system is expected to remain quasi-stationary within the next 48 hours. Then the remnant low should take a westwards track over the subtropical high pressures belt and then southwards towards a weakness in the aforementioned belt.

If the residual low will not fill up in the subtropical area, it should then begin extratropical transition. Official forecast track remains rather uncertain and the large spread of both deterministic numerical weather prediction models tracks and multi-ensemble members (EPS, MOGREPS, GEFS, CENS, PEARP) shows this uncertainty.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 3 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Benilde (986 hPa) located at 22.0S 73.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center extending up to 110 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
75 NM radius from center, extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 22.1S 73.5E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 21.9S 73.5E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
48 HRS: 22.6S 72.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.2E 71.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The system remains sheared, with a totally exposed center on the northwestern edge of the deep convective activity. Unfavorable environmental conditions (moderate vertical wind shear and weak heat potential) lead the system weaken. Under conflicting steering influences (mid to low level ridges westward, southward and eastward), system is expected to remain quasi-stationary within the next 36 to 48 hours. Then the remnant low should take a southwestwards then southwards towards a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt. If the residual low will not fill up in the subtropical area, it should then begin extra-tropical transition.

Official track forecast is close to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model in relationship with its previous runs - rather constant and weak forecast positioning errors. An alternative scenario is forecast by GFDN and UKMO numerical weather prediction models is also a filling up system but a
Remnant low shifting westward in relationship with a stronger subtropical belt which does not allow the system recurving southwards.

Official forecast track remains rather uncertain and the large spread of both deterministic numerical weather prediction models tracks and multi-ensemble members (EPS, MOGREPS, GEFS, CENS, PEARP) shows this uncertainty.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 3 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Benilde (992 hPa) located at 21.6S 73.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/18 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 21.7S 73.2E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 22.0S 73.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale
48 HRS: 22.9S 72.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.3E 72.3E - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
======================

The system is sheared, with a totally exposed center on the northwestern edge of the residual convective activity which is now at more than one degree far from the low level circulation center. It remains almost stationary over this past 6 hours. Unfavorable environmental conditions (moderate vertical wind shear and weak heat potential) lead the system weaken. Under competing steering influences (mid to low level ridges westward, southward and eastward), system is expected move very slowly within the next 36 hours. Then the remnant low should take a south southwestwards then south-eastwards track towards a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt.

The forecast track is rather uncertain. Some models forecast a westward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures. The present official track is close to the ECMWF model.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BENILDE (04-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 4 2012
===================================

At 0:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Benilde (992 hPa) located at 21.5S 73.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/18 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
50-60 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
75 NM radius from center, extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 21.7S 73.2E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModerĂ©e)
24 HRS: 22.0S 73.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale
48 HRS: 22.9S 72.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.3E 72.3E - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
======================

The system is sheared, with a totally exposed center on the northwestern edge of the residual convective activity which is now at more than 1,5 degrees far from the low level circulation center. It has moved very slowly north-eastward over the past six hours. ASCAT data at 1700z show gale force winds in the eastern near the low level circulation center. System is wedged between the subtropical high pressure belt and two ridges in its east and its west.

Environmental conditions (moderate vertical wind shear and weak heat potential) are unfavorable for the regeneration of the system. It should dissipate in the tropical area at the end of the forecast range.
The forecast track remains uncertain. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Others numerical weather prediction models forecast a southward track. The present official track is close to the ECMWF model.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER BENILDE (04-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 4 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Benilde (997 hPa) located at 21.8S 74.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
75 NM radius from center, extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 22.1S 74.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 22.5S 74.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.9S 73.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.2E 72.8E - Low Pressure Area

Additional Information
======================

The system is sheared, with a totally exposed center on the northwestern edge of the residual convective activity which is more than 1.5 degrees far from the low level circulation center. Gale force winds 35 kt likely persist between 60 NM to 100 MN from the center in the south-western quadrant due to gradient effect.

System is wedged between the subtropical high pressure belt and two ridges in its east and its west. Now, it seems that system is under the steering influence of the ridge located in the east. Environmental conditions (moderate vertical wind shear and weak heat potential) are unfavorable for the regeneration of the system. It should dissipate in the subtropical area at the end of the forecast range.

The forecast track remains uncertain. Some nwp models forecast a westward track over the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Others numerical weather prediction models forecast a southward track. The present official track is closer to the ECMWF model.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Cyclone Benilde will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER BENILDE (04-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 4 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Benilde (997 hPa) located at 23.0S 75.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
75 NM radius from center, extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
====================

12 HRS: 23.9S 75.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 24.8S 74.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.5S 72.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.2E 71.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The system is sheared with a totally exposed center on the north-western edge of the residual convective activity. For the latest hours, it has recurved southward. Within the next hours, it expected that system will move south-westward under the steering influence of the ridge located in the west and shifting eastward. Beyond tau 60, system might take an east-south-eastward track within the mid-latitudes westerly flow and begin its extra-tropicalization. Within the next 24 hours, gale force winds 35 kt should still persist between 60 NM to 110 NM from the center in the south-western quadrant due to gradient effect. Environmental conditions are not favorable for re-intensification. The present official track is closer to the ECMWF model.

LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT RE-INTENSIFICATION

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
============================

On latest satellite imagery, we can depict initiation of low level clockwise circulation near 15S 40.8E close to the coastlines of Mozambique. From Friday, Available European numerical weather prediction models forecast a low deepening within this area.

For the next 48 hours, there is no potential for the development of another tropical depression. Beyond, risk becomes poor to fair in the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST January 5 2012
================================================= ===

A weak Tropical Low has formed in the monsoon trough to the north of Timor. This low is expected to move slowly south into the Timor Sea later tomorrow or on the weekend, but is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next three days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Friday: Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday: Low

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET January 5 2012
============================

The area of convection located since yesterday over the northern channel is better defined this
afternoon. Satellite imagery along with microwave imagery from TRMM at 0829 AM UTC show that a low may be located near 15.2S 42.7E about 200 km north of Juan de Nova and 350 km south southwest of the
Comoros archipelago. surface low pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa. Surprisingly, 24 hrs pressure trends in nearby stations show some slow rise at present time. Within a mainly favorable environment (SST in the 28-29C, low shear under the upper level ridge, good divergence aloft with 2 potential outflow channel to the north and south and good monsoon low level inflow) and only a lack of tradewinds inflow as a negative factor, this low is expected to significantly deepen within the next three days. It should move little within the next 24 to 48 hours and then move towards the western or southwestern coast of Madagascar. Consequently, unhabitants of this area should closely follow the progress of this system.

Heavy rains risk is still present for the next 24 hours for large part of the northern channel, included
the Mozambique coasts (between 10S and 15S), the Comoros archipelago and the northwestern coast
of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor. Beyond, risk becomes fair to good during the week end in the Mozambique Channel.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET January 6 2012
============================

The area of convection located since yesterday over the northern channel is better defined this afternoon. Satellite imagery, ASCAT data of 0651Z along with MW imagery from TRMM at 0733Z show that a low may be located near 16.5S 40.7E about 200 km West of Juan de Nova. sea level pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa.

Within a mainly favorable environment (SST in the 28-29C, low shear under the upper level ridge, good divergence aloft with 2 potential outflow channel to the north and south and good monsoon low level inflow) and only a lack of tradewinds inflow as a negative factor, this low is expected to significantly deepen within the next three days. It should move little within the next 24 hours and then move towards the western or southwestern coast of Madagascar. Consequently, unhabitants of this area should closely follow the progress of this system.

Heavy rains risk is still present for the next 24 hours for large part of the northern channel, included
the Mozambique coasts (between 10S and 15S), the Comoros archipelago and the northwestern coast of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor to fair, and become to good during the week end in the Mozambique Channel.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET January 7 2012
============================

Animated satellite pictures depicts fluctuating convection. At 1100Z the low level circulation center is located approximately near 17.8S 41.3E, about 180 km south-west of Juan de Nova. It moves currently east southeastward at about 4kt. The sea level pressure is estimated at 1004hPa. The sea level pressure at the station of Juan de Nova varied from -2hPa over the past 24 hours.

Environmental conditions are favorable for the deepening of this low : SST of 28-29°C, good monsoon inflow, weak vertical wind shear, good upper level divergence (cf. CIMSS). The trade inflow is expected to improve by 12 to 18 tau in relation with the rebuilding of the subtropical anticyclone south of Madagascar. This system is forecast to develop rapidly within the next 12 to 36 hours. It is forecast to track south-eastward, under the steering influence of a low to mid level ridge in its north.

According to the available numerical weather prediction models, this system should make landfall south-west of Madagascar (in the area of Morondava) during Sunday to Monday night. This forecast is uncertain due to the fair confidence in the actual location of the low level circulation center.

There is no other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is good in the
Mozambique Channel.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 05-20112012
4:00 AM RET January 8 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05 (1000 hPa) located at 18.5S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: 2.0/2.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.1S 42.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.2S 43.2E - 35 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModĂ©rĂ©e)
48 HRS: 23.0S 45.9E - Depression sur terre
72 HRS: 23.1S 50.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Convection mainly fed by the monsoon flow has clearly strengthened during the last hours, colder, and organised into a curved banding. The system is expected to intensify within a favorable environment,efficient monsoon flow, good upper level divergence with a good polar outflow channel.

Numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement for a south-eastwards track, then the system is forecasted to make landfall up to 24 hours on the southeastern coast of Madagascar.

All availables modeles make coming back over the indian ocean the centre within 36 to 48 hours, but within more unfavourables conditions, cooler sea surface temperatures and strong vertical wind shear.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 05 will be issued at around 6:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F
12:00 PM FST January 8 2012
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 03F (1003 hPa) located at 21.0S 174.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on infrared and visible imagery.

Organization has slightly increased in the last 24 hours. Convection has not increased or deepened much. System lies to the southeast of an upper level outflow center in a weakly sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Global models are slowly developing the system and moving it eastward.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 05-20112012
10:00 AM RET January 8 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 05 (999 hPa) located at 18.8S 42.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

40 NM from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.0S 43.7E - TempĂªte Tropicale ModĂ©rĂ©e
24 HRS: 20.9S 43.9E - Forte TempĂªte Tropicale
48 HRS: 22.8S 47.1E - Depression sur terre
72 HRS: 23.4S 51.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

System has clearly organized within the last 24 hours. As the low level circulation center remains rather difficult to locate, environmental sea level pressure at 0300z shows a falling trend over 24 hours from -3.0 hpa at Juan de Nova to -6.1 at Maintorano. The main cluster remains over sea but a peripheral band in the monsoon flow convergence extends far to the northeast and causes heavy and thundery rain on the western Malagasy coastline.

Msg hrv channel imagery shows a very good divergence aloft in the southwestern semi-circle and an efficient poleward upper level outflow channel building towards the south. Poleward low level inflow is expected to improve within this day in relationship with the enforcing subtropical low level ridge. Environmental and energetic conditions are favorable for regular further intensification.

Current forecast is based on a climatological intensification rate but a faster intensification is not excluded. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to steer the system intensifying southeastwards and to forecast a landfall next night or early Monday in the area of Morondava. System should likely cross Madagascar from west to east and be back over seas as remnant low nearby the southeast of the big island on Tuesday.

Last ECMWF and ALADIN deterministic runs purpose however an alternative scenario with the main circulation filling up overland along the western Malagasy coastline and within the same time a second low deepening nearby the southeastern Malagasy coastline.

In relationship with a moderate northwesterly vertical wind shear in this aforementioned area, environmental conditions are not favorable for re-intensification of the remnant low or for a significant deepening of the secondary low. It is however an high probability that monsoon flow extends consequently far in the south in the wake of the residual low and that heavy rain should then concern Reunion's and Mauritius island On and after Tuesday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on Tropical Disturbance 05 will be issued at around 12:30 PM UTC..

Amended advisory form Tropical Depression 05R

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.0S 43.7E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModĂ©rĂ©e)
24 HRS: 20.9S 43.9E - 50 knots (Forte TempĂªte Tropicale)

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F
18:00 FST January 8 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM, Tropical Disturbance 03F (1001 hPa) analysed near 22.0S 174.0W and remains slow moving. Position POOR based on infrared imagery.

Organization has slightly increased in the last 24 hours. Convection has not increased or deepened much. System lies to the southeast of an upper level outflow center in a weakly sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 31C. Global models are slowly developing the system and moving it eastward.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHANDA (05-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 8 2012
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda (996 hPa) located at 19.3S 43.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================

25 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

60 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.1S 43.8E - 40 knots (TempĂªte Tropicale ModĂ©rĂ©e)
24 HRS: 21.1S 44.3E - Depression sur terre

Additional Information
======================

The main cluster remains over sea but a peripheral band in the monsoon flow convergence extends far to the northeast and causes heavy and thundery rain on the western Malagasy coastline and also from 14s to 16s over the all width of the Mozambique channel. System feature has clearly improve over the last past 24 hours and shows on multispectral METOSAT 7 and msg2 imagery a well cyclonic curved band pattern extending mainly in the northeastern semi-circle. System remains slightly north northwesterly sheared and the llcc is difficult to locate precisely (even with microwave). 0611z ASCAT swath covers a large western part of the cyclonic circulation and agree with the RSMC 0600z fix, even in center location and intensity at 30kt, except some likely rain-contaminated 40kt winds flags. From this Sunday afternoon, polar low level inflow is forecast to improve in relationship with the rebuilding subtropical high pressure belt rebuilding in the south. Other low level environmental conditions (equatorward monsoon inflow, oceanic heat content) are already favorable for further intensification.

Sheared constraint should weaken within the next 12 hours allowing the system to deepen but a new westerly sheared constraint is expected to begin late today before the system is forecast making landfall and then dissipating overland. Window for intensification is short and the landfall is expected early Monday near Morondava. 0600z suggested alternative scenario is now the most likely.

The main center of this system is no more expected to cross the big island and to come back oversea. It should dissipate overland as a secondary low is expected to deepen slightly nearby the southeastern Malagasy coastline from Tuesday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC CHANDA will be issued at around 18:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CHANDA (05-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 8 2012
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda (996 hPa) located at 20.2S 43.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================

25 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

30 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 21.0S 44.4E - Depression sur terre
24 HRS: 21.8S 45.2E - Depression sur terre

Additional Information
======================

The main cluster remains over sea. Flow convergence extends far to the north and causes heavy and thundery rain on the northwestern Malagasy coastline between Mahajonga and Besalampy up to 150 km over land and 200km over the Mozambique channel.

According to 1453 PM UTC Microwave (SSMIS) imagery the low level circulation center has been relocated with fair confidence. At 1800 PM UTC the low level circulation center is approximately located 20km from the Malagasy coastline off Morondava. System moves at 9kt and is expected to make landfall within few hours between Morondava and Belo at the stage of moderate tropical storm. The coastal area of Morondava is expected to undergo the maximum winds (gusts of 50kt) and moderate swell (2 to 3 meters in average). Heavy rains will concern the coastal area between Belo and Morombe. System is forecast to dissipate over land by 36 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC CHANDA will be issued at around 0:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
9:00 AM FST January 9 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 03F (1001 hPa) located at 22.5S 175.8W remains slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection has been irregular near the low level circulation center for the last 12 hours.

Global models expect 03F to weaken as it moves south.

Tropical Disturbance will not develop into a tropical cyclone.

System #2
---------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1000 hPa) located at 18.1S 153.6W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on GOES visible imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. The exposed low level circulation center lies just to the west of the area of enhanced convection. Organization has increased in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. 04F lies just to the east of an eastward moving 250 HPA trough in a strong sheared environment.

Global models have picked up td04f and move it southeast with no intensification.

The potential for td04f to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.

System #3
--------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1002 hPa) located at 17.5S 169.7W is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours with the low level circulation center difficult to locate. Organisation has slightly increased in the last 12 hours. 05F lies under the 250 HPA ridge axis with a good upper divergence and along a surface trough. Cyclonic circulation extends Up to 750 HPA. 05F lies under a weak sheared environment.

Global models have picked up td05f and slowly move it in the east-southeastward with some intensification.

The potential for td05f to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to MODERATE

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER CHANDA (05-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 9 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Chanda (996 hPa) located at 21.2S 44.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================

90 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 22.1S 44.4E - Depression sur terre
24 HRS: 22.6S 44.9E - Depression sur terre

Additional Information
======================

System made landfall in the area of Belo (at 2100 PM UTC approximately). Near gale force winds are possible over sea and over the coastal area up to 90 nm from the center in the northwestern sector.

Important convective activity and rains associated with the inland depression are observed in the area of Belo/Andranopasy (region of the Menabe) and up to 120 km inland. Thundery rains are important in a convergence line of the monsoon flow associated with the system in its north, on the axis 13S 40E to 17S 46E.

Accumulation of precipitations should be important in the northwest of Madagascar (coastal region of Mahajanga and within a radius of about 200 km inland). Important thundery rains should continue in the region of the Menabe and in the northwest of Madagascar during the next 24 hours. System is forecast to dissipate inland by 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC CHANDA will be issued at around 6:30 AM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:06 PM WST January 9 2012
=========================

The monsoon trough is strengthening over tropical waters to the north of the state, and a weak tropical low is starting to form near 12S 118E. The low is likely to move steadily southwards and approach the Pilbara coast over the next few days. If the low remains over the ocean, there is a chance it could develop into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday or on Thursday, although it is more likely to remain below cyclone intensity. However, regardless of whether the low develops into a tropical cyclone, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the central and eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley over the next few days, with some heavy rainfall and squally conditions likely.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate

Another tropical low may develop along the monsoon trough near 10S 105E on Tuesday. It is expected to move eastwards and remain weak through the outlook period.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER CHANDA (05-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 9 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Chanda (998 hPa) located at 21.6S 43.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Additional Information
======================

Microwave pictures at 2213 PM UTC (TRMM) and 0208 AM UTC (F17), and classical imagery satellite show that system has not made its landfall. Now, it is located 20 km north of morombe. 0551z ascat swath indicates that winds do not reach near gale force around the low. former Chanda's track has been relocated more west relative to 0000 AM UTC fix.

Convective activity has clearly weakened close to the centre of the system that undergoes a strengthening west-northwesterly vertical wind shear. Important convective activity and heavy rains persist over south of madagascar within the south-eastern part of the low and within a convergence line of the monsoon flow associated with the system in its north, on an axis 11S 40E to 17S 47E. Within the next 24 hours, it is expected that depression dissipates by coming inland. During the next 36 hours, heavy rains should continue in the south of madagascar region, as they might progressively decrease within convergence line located in the north of system.

Last warning for this system except re-intensification.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
18:00 PM FST January 9 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1004 hPa) located at 19.1S 153.1W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on GOES infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. The exposed low level circulation center lies just to the west of the area of enhanced convection. Organization has not increased much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. 04F lies just to the east of an eastward moving 250 HPA trough in a strong sheared environment.

Global models have picked up 04F and move it southeast with no intensification.

The potential for td04f to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.

System #2
----------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1000 hPa) located at 19.5S 169.7W is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours with the low level circulation center difficult to locate. Organization has slightly increased in the last 12 hours. 05F lies under the 250 HPA ridge axis with a good upper divergence and along a surface trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. 05F lies under a weak sheared environment.

Global models have picked up 05F and slowly move it in the east southeastward with some intensification.

The potential for 05F to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
9:00 AM FST January 10 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1005 hPa) located at 19.0S 152.9W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on GOES visible imagery and surface observation. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Convection displaced to the far east of the exposed low level circulation center due to strong westerly vertical wind shear.

Most global models expect td04f to weaken further as it moves southeast.

04F at this stage will not develop into a tropical cyclone.

system #2
---------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1004 hPa) located at 19.8S 169.5W is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible imagery and surface observation. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Convection remains persistent with the low level circulation center difficult to locate. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. 05F lies under the 250 HPA ridge axis and along a surface trough. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. 05F lies under a low to moderate sheared environment.

Global models have picked up td05f and initially slowly move it southwards before moving west southwestwards with little intensification.

The potential for td05f to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:55 PM WST January 10 2012
=========================

A tropical low was located near 15.0S 119.0E at midday. The low is expected to move steadily southwards then southwestwards on Wednesday towards the Pilbara coast.

There is a chance the low could develop into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday or on Thursday, although it is more likely to remain below cyclone intensity. However, regardless of whether the low develops into a tropical cyclone, gale force winds are expected southeast of the center affecting the Pilbara coast during Wednesday and into Thursday. Heavy rainfall is expected over the central and eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: Low

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 07U
3:00 PM WST January 10 2012
=========================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Low 07U (1002 hPa) located at 15.4S 119.3E or 550 km north of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 9 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.4S 118.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 19.2S 118.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.3S 115.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.6S 113.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

A tropical low north of Western Australia has showed persistent convection near the center during the day. The low level center is obscured by cloud and difficult to determine. FT has been set at 2.0 based on MET and curved band.

The system is currently in an area of low to moderate shear and warm sea surface temperature suggesting that further development is likely in the next 24 hours. Despite this, all model guidance forecast a system with gales confined southeast of the center in the squeeze between the low and a ridge to the south and hence not strictly a tropical cyclone. While this remains the most probable scenario, the likely impact to the Pilbara coast of gales and heavy rain will be consistent with that of a category 1 tropical cyclone.

The low is expected to move southwards over the next 12 to 24 hours before taking a more southwestwards turn as it get closer to the coast. During this period shear increases and the low level circulation is likely to weaken and move more westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F
18:00 PM FST January 10 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1003 hPa) located at 20.0S 169.0W is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Convection remains persistent with the low level circulation center difficult to locate. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. 05F lies under the 250 HPA ridge axis and along a surface trough. 05F lies under a low to moderate sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly moving it southwest with little intensification.

The potential for 05F to develop in a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW to MODERATE.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 07U
6:00 PM WST January 10 2012
=========================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Low 07U (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 119.2E or 485 km north of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 9 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 07U
9:00 PM WST January 10 2012
=========================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Low 07U (998 hPa) located at 16.6S 119.1E or 415 km north of Port Hedland and 515 km north northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 11 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM in the southeast quadrant
50 NM in the southwest quadrant

A Tropical Low is moving southwards towards the Pilbara coast. The low has strengthened over the past 6 hours, and is now producing gales over offshore waters to the south of the center. The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Wednesday and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100 mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 118.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.2S 117.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.8S 115.3E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.7S 114.2E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

A tropical low north of Western Australia has showed persistent convection near the center during the day, and has shown signs of development during the past 6 hours. A curved band pattern yields DT of 2.5 [with a wrap of about 0.5]. FT has been set at 2.5, based on MET and curved band.

A period of gales was observed at Rowley Shoals, to the south of the system center. The system is currently in an area of low to moderate shear and warm sea surface temperatures, suggesting that further development is possible in the next 24 hours. Despite this, all model guidance forecast a system with gales confined south of the center in the squeeze between the low and a ridge to the south and hence not strictly a tropical cyclone. While this remains the most probable scenario, the likely impact to the Pilbara coast of gales and heavy rain will be consistent with that of a category 1 tropical cyclone.

The low is expected to move southwards over the next 12 to 24 hours before taking a more southwestwards turn as it get closer to the coast. During this period shear increases and the low level circulation is likely to weaken and move more westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
3:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (993 hPa) located at 17.7S 119.1E or 295 km north of Port Hedland and 410 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 11 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday. Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and is unlikely to intensify further before reaching the coast.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 19.7S 118.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.9S 117.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 23.3S 114.9E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified into a category 1 system. A Current Intensity of 3.0m is based on the pattern and MET.

Gales are currently being observed at Bedout Island, thus the extension of the radius in that quadrant. Rowley Shoals reported a period of gales earlier and is now reporting just below gale SSW winds, consistent with the location of the center.

The system is moving south into a region of increased shear, suggesting further development is unlikely. However, the system should maintain current intensity until Wednesday afternoon when it moves into even higher shear and starts to weaken before crossing the Pilbara coast.

After the system weakens due to the shear, the low level circulation is likely move westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast. Models with a stronger system have a tendency to forecast a more southerly track, whereas models with weaker systems are taking Heidi further west.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
6:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (988 hPa) located at 18.1S 119.0E or 250 km north of Port Hedland and 370 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40-45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 120 km/h close to the center as it crosses the coast.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system and should maintain intensity until it reaches the coast, after which it should weaken.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Pardoo and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Mardie, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
9:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 18.4S 119.1E or 220 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 350 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and could produce gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland late this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 130 km/h close to the center as it crosses the coast overnight.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and may intensify to a Category 2 system just before landfall.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Wallal and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark overnight with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 19.7S 118.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.7S 118.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.7S 115.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.6S 114.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi, category 1, was located by Port Hedland radar and moving steadily southwards towards the coast. Intensity is based on Dvorak CI of 3.0 using MET, although recent DT estimates are at 2.5 from curved band pattern. Surface observations at Rowley Shoals overnight confirmed TC intensity having gale force winds in the northwest sector and a pressure of 993hPa, while Bedout Island to the southeast also is reporting gales.

Some intensification to category 2 intensity is possible prior to landfall overnight. Weakening should be rapid after landfall aided by increasing wind shear and then a more southwest track overland is likely. Model guidance has underestimated the intensity of the system and has tended to have a more westerly track than is predicted.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
12:00 PM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 18.7S 119.1E or 185 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 325 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is intensifying as it continues its southward track towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are likely to develop in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Whim Creek including Port Hedland this afternoon. Destructive winds with gusts to 155 km/h are possible overnight close to the cyclone center between Whim Creek and Pardoo. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend west to Dampier and possibly as far as Mardie overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and in the adjacent parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250 mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, and Whim Creek need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Whim Creek and Mardie, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
3:00 PM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 19.1S 118.9E or 140 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 280 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified into a category 2 system as it tracks south-southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected in coastal areas east of Whim Creek this afternoon and evening. Destructive winds with gusts to 155 km/h are possible overnight close to the cyclone centre between Whim Creek and Pardoo, including Port Hedland. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend west to Dampier overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and in the adjacent parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall are expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier extending to adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Dampier to Mardie has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.5S 118.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.4S 117.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 23.7S 115.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 27.1S 116.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified to category 2 showing a better defined circulation both by Port Hedland radar and by recent satellite imagery. Intensity of 50 knots based on Dvorak CI of 3.5 using time-averaged DT, although latest image and adjusted MET indicate 4.0 intensity. Offshore observations and ASCAT confirm the gale extent.

Motion in last 6 hours is now south southwest which should continue through to landfall, most likely in the Port Hedland/Whim Creek region.

Some further intensification is possible, although the system will make landfall within 12 hours. Weakening should be rapid after landfall aided by increasing wind shear and then a more southwest track overland is forecast. Model guidance has underestimated the intensity of the system and has generally tended to have a more westerly track than is predicted.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
6:00 PM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 19.3S 118.9E or 115 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 265 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi remains a category 2 system as it tracks south-southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Wallal this evening. Destructive winds with gusts to 140 km/h are possible overnight close to the cyclone center between Whim Creek and Pardoo, including Port Hedland. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend west to Dampier overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and into the adjacent inland parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

RED ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, and Whim Creek, need to go to shelter immediately.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Whim Creek and Dampier, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, and Dampier need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, and extends to adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Sandfire Roadhouse to Wallal has been cancelled.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..