TC Leepi/Emong - East China Sea // TD Fabian - South China Sea

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
16:00 AM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (985 hPa) located at 19.4S 64.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 20.7S 64.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 22.2S 63.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.1S 63.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 30.2S 66.8E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================

Intensity of the system has remain stationary. According to the last satellite pictures, it is tracking southward during the past six hours.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a south southwestwards to southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion. On this track the system is forecast to approach closest to Rodrigues island tonight near 18 hours.

Within the next 18-24 hours, environment remains rather good. Beyond, system should begin to undergo northwesterly vertical wind shear behind a upper level trough.

The system is forecast to move near Rodrigues close to its peak of intensity.

Cooler sea surface temperature and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the beginning of the next week.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.2S 38.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
12 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
65 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southern semicircle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 37.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 37.9E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.2S 39.1E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 20.1S 40.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Last visible pictures show a warm point and micro waves confirm the very small size banding eye structure of the system.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track of the system within the next 48 hours, at first west to southwestward during the next 24 hours under the steering influence of the mid-tropospheric ridge south of Madagascar, and after east to southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system.

Beyond 48 hours, numerical weather prediction models are more dispersed. Deterministic models are in rather good agreement for a global re-curvement south to south-westward, but ensemble prediction suggest a south to south-south-east track. Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one.

For the nect 24 hours, proximity of the coast of Mozambique and weakening of the oceanic energetic potential (slow movement of the system) are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. Beyond 24 hours, system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast but the regions of Guelimane and Beira should undergo heavy rains during the next 24 hours at least.

Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
22:00 AM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (985 hPa) located at 19.9S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 130 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.6S 63.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.1S 62.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 28.2S 63.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 33.3S 71.4E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

System is currently near its closest point approach of Rodrigues at about 75 km to the east southeast. Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern with no major change during the last 6 hours although some hint of a warm core on latest infrared imagery.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion and extratropicalization.

Within the next 18/24 hours, environment remains rather good. Beyond, system should begin to under
Go northwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of an upper level trough. Latest CIMSS shear analysis show that it has began to turn to the northwest and strengthen a little bit (15 knots).

Rodrigues island seems to have experienced the most significant weather this evening with recorded gust at 70 kt at Pointe Canon and mean 10 min winds at 49 knots recorded at Plaine Corail at 1500 PM UTC.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 20 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.3S 37.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
10 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
65 to 70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 37.7E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.0S 38.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.3S 39.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 20.7S 40.3E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

There is some doubt about still classified Funzo as a tropical cyclone. Latest microwave imagery suggest an eyewall replacement cycle although it is not clear at this time. Intensity is hold the same at this time.
Last visible pictures show a warm point and microwaves confirm the very small size banding eye structure of the system.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track of the system within the next 48 hours, at first rather slow during the next 24 hours, and after east to southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system.

Beyond 48 hrs, numerical weather prediction models are more dispersed. Deterministic models are in rather good agreement for a global re-curvement south to southwestward, but ensemble prediction suggest a south to south southeast track. Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one.

For the next 24 hours, proximity of the coast of Mozambique and weakening of the oceanic energetic potential (slow movement of the system) are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. Beyond 24 hours, system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast at short range but the regions of Quelimane and Beira should undergo heavy rains during the next 24 hours at least.

Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
9:00 AM FST January 21 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1004 hPa) located at 15.0S 180.0 is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared/visible and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. TD 06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, under 250 HPA ridge and east of upper trough in a low to moderate sheared environment.

Most models have picked the system and slowly move it southeast with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cylone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (973 hPa) located at 18.1S 37.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 to 70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 38.2E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 38.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.6S 40.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 21.5S 39.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Still some doubt about the current strength of the system. Some infrared imagery before 0:00 AM UTC show an intermittent ragged eye pattern with very cold cloud top so in line with ADT and microwave imagery that depicts a wider eye pattern than previously (although a weakness may exist in the southern eyewall), the previous intensity is maintained.

Latest available numerical weather prediction models suggest now that the system is now embedded within contradictory steering flow. They all agree to not take again significantly the system westwards. As the subtropical ridge weakens southwards, the movement of Funso should resume today on a east to southeastwards component under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge north of the system

On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the southeast of the system and will result on a polewards motion for the system. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a new zonal track towards that should bring the system over the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane. An alternate scenario, suggest by the ECMWF ensemble forecast could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the southeast of the system and a continuing polewards track at long range that will remain oversea.

As long as the system move little, the weakening of the oceanic energetic potential and potentially on going inner core process are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. With the resume of the movement, the system should recover better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly. Ocean heat content map suggest that the system could move over very warm water around 20.0S. The ocean heat content should be lower after that if the system moves closer to the Mozambican coasts as expected. Therefore, the peak intensity is sooner and a little bit lower than the previous forecast in agreement or just above the guidance.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models exclude the landfall on the Mozambique coast at short range. However with the actual growing trend of the inner core seen on microwave imagery, it is likely that damaging winds has reached the shore near Quelimane.

Inhabitants of this sector, but in a general way all inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (986 hPa) located at 20.6S 63.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 to 40 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 to 80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-cirlce extending up to 110 to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.3S 63.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.8S 63.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 30.3S 65.7E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
72 HRS: 35.4S 77.7E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern with a slight deterioration over the last 6 hours.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion and extratropicalization (with re-deepening expected now).

Latest CIMSS shear analysis show a constant northwesterly shear at about 15 kt over the system.

Rodrigues island is now out of the convective mass associated with Ethel.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:30 pm CST January 21 2012
================================================= ===

The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas and will move slowly south over the weekend. A weak low pressure system has formed in the northwest Gulf of Carpanteria, along the trough, and is expected to move west toward the Timor Sea over the next few days and may develop further.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:00 PM WST January 21 2012
=========================

There are no significant lows in the Western Region. The monsoon trough is expected to become active and one or two significant lows are likely to develop within the trough by Monday. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region increases during next week. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be directly affected.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (986 hPa) located at 21.3S 63.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
10 to 20 NM radius from the center extending up to 35 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 to 40 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 110 to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 23.0S 63.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.9S 63.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 31.5S 67.0E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern remains an embedded center pattern without significant evolution for the last 6 hours. Latest CIMSS shear analysis still show a constant northwesterly shear at about 15 knots over the system. This wind shear might strengthen within the next hours.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southward then south-south-eastward track within the next 24-36 hours. Beyond, system might be aspire in the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a south-eastward re-curving motion and a clear extra-tropicalization. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalization.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (952 hPa) located at 18.0S 37.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 38.3E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 18.7S 38.7E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 19.7S 40.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 21.7S 39.0E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

System has clearly intensified for the last 6 hours with re-appearance of a small eye. DT average on 6 hours is 5.5. ADT is 5.4. Funso is quasi stationary at 60 NM east from Quelimane. Coasts of Mozambique located between Quelimane and Mualama are very close to the maximum winds and heavy rains area.

Latest available numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system is now embedded within contradictory steering flows. As the subtropical ridge weakens southwards, the movement of Funso should resume today on a east to south-eastwards component under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge existing north of the system.

On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the south-east of the system and will result on a poleward motion for the system. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a westward track that should bring the system over the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane. An alternate scenario, suggested by the ECMWF ensemble forecast, could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the south-east of the system and consequently a continuing poleward track at long range that will remain oversea.

Within the next 36 hours, system might benefit from good environmental conditions, but intensity should fluctuate a bit such as during the last 12 hours. System is expected to intensify again Monday and Tuesday. In fact, ocean heat content map suggests that the system could move over very warm water around 20.0S. The ocean heat content should be lower after that if the system moves closer to the Mozambican coasts as expected.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the south-western coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
18:00 PM FST January 21 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1003 hPa) located at 17.1S 179.3E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28-29C.

Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 850 HPA. TD 06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, under 250 HPA ridge and east of upper trough in a low to moderate sheared environment.

Global models have picked the system and slowly move it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (987 hPa) located at 22.2S 64.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 radius from the center extending up to 80-100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 24.0S 64.1E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 26.8S 64.8E - 35 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
48 HRS: 32.2S 69.5E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

System begin to undergo a strong wind-shear and it is difficult to localize the low level center. This north-westerly vertical wind-shear might continue to strengthen within the next hours.

Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southward then south southeastward track within the next 24 hours. Beyond, system might be aspire in the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a southeastward re-curving motion and a clear extra-tropicalization. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalization.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 AM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (952 hPa) located at 18.0S 37.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.2S 38.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.5S 38.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.1S 39.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 22.1S 38.3E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

System is still quasi stationary and shows some signs of weakness likely due to cooling water on which it is for 12 hours. DT average is 5.0+ on 6 hours.

Latest available numerical weather prediction models still suggest that system should restart eastward to southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge existing north of the system. Funso might keep this track within the next 36 hours. With restart of movement, it is expected that system intensity should remain close to the intense cyclone stage with warmer water and upper level conditions remaining good.

On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the south-east of the system and will result on a poleward motion for the system. The re-curve is more or less rapid by different models. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a westward track that sould bring the system toward the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane.

An alternate scenario, suggested by the ECMWF ensemble forecast, could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the southeast of the system and consequently a continuing poleward track at long range that will remain oversea.

ECMWF suggest that system will intensify again between Monday and Wednesday with high ocean heat content.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (987 hPa) located at 23.5S 64.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 radius from the center extending up to 80-100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 25.8S 64.3E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 28.6S 65.4E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
48 HRS: 33.1S 72.7E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Convective activity has improve temporarily close to the center during the last few hours. But the northwesterly vertical wind-shear might continue to strengthen during the night.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southward then south southeastward track within the next 24 hours. Beyond, system might merge with the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a southeastward re-curving motion and a clear extra-tropicalization. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalization.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 21 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (954 hPa) located at 18.2S 37.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as east southeast at 2 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 38.3E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.8S 39.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.7S 39.3E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 22.3S 37.9E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern has shown sharp signs of weakening of Funso during the past six hours with a warming central overcast. According to the last animated pictures Funso should move slowly southeastward now and the curving band pattern is improving. It is difficult to locate the center precisely.

Funso should track slowly southeastward under the steering influence of the near equatorial mid-tropospheric ridge existing north of the system within the next 36 hours. With restart of movement, system intensity should remain close to the intense cyclone stage with warmer water and upper level conditions remaining good.

On Monday 23, the near equatorial ridge should build to the east and to the south-east of the system and will result on a poleward motion for the system. The re-curve is more or less rapid by different models. At the end of the forecast period (day 4 and day 5), most of the numerical guidance suggest a westward track that should bring the system toward the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Inhambane.

An alternate scenario, suggested by the ECMWF ensemble forecast, could be a weaker than expected mid level ridge located to the south-east of the system and consequently a continuing poleward track at long range that will remain oversea.

ECMWF suggest that system will intensify again between Monday and Wednesday with high ocean heat content.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 06F
9:00 AM FST January 22 2012
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 06 (1003 hPa) located at 19.0S 179.2W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery, radar and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA. TD06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, just south of 250 HPA ridge axis and east of upper trough in a low sheared environment.

Global models have picked the system and slowly move it south southeast without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (987 hPa) located at 24.6S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 27.7S 65.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 31.1S 67.0E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
48 HRS: 39.9S 81.7E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Convective pattern has destructured during the past 6 hours due to the strengthening vertical wind shear (30kt according to the CIMSS analysis) and the system arriving over cooler sea surface temperature.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in tight agreement to forecast a south southeastward track within the next 24 hours. Beyond, system might merge with the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a southeastward re-curving motion and a clear extra-tropicalisation. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalisation.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (952 hPa) located at 17.9S 38.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.3S 38.9E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.9S 39.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 20.7S 39.5E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 22.8S 38.3E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso is going slowly away from the coast eastward and the interaction of the system with the land is lessening. Convection is restructuring above the center with a small central dense overcast and a small curved band that is wrapping all around the center.

At 24 to 36 hours, Funso is expected to be under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere and should track slowly east to south-eastward. Then, until 72 hours, a ridge should build east of the system and the track should re-curve south to southwestward. Beyond (day 4 and day 5) numerical weather prediction models diverge about the track. CEP (1200 PM UTC run) forecast a slow westward track. CONW, AVNO, NGPS forecast a track toward the south of the Mozambique channel.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located beneath the ridge axis. Upper level divergence is good equatorward. Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. They are expected to improve beyond day 3 with the building of a second outflow channel poleward.

Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) as it is going away from the coast and it should deepen regularly. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track towards the Mozambique coast.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST January 22 2012
================================================= ===

The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located off the north Arnhem coast. The low is expected to move slowly west or southwest during the next few days and may enter the Timor Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
2:00 PM WST January 22 2012
=========================

A tropical low lies in the monsoon trough near 12.4S 117.6E. Activity in the monsoon trough is expected to increase during the week and the tropical low at 12.4S 117.6E or another low within the trough is likely to become significant by mid week. The risk of a tropical cyclone in the region increases during the week. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be directly affected, but there is an elevated risk.

By Tuesday next week the monsoon trough may be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the Indonesian archipelago including Christmas Island.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: High

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (987 hPa) located at 26.2S 64.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 29.7S 66.3E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
24 HRS: 32.2S 69.0E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Convective pattern has destructured during the past 6 hours due to the strengthening vertical wind shear (30 knots according to the CIMSS analysis) and the system arriving over cooler sea surface temperature. Clockwise circulation should become extra-tropical pattern up to 12 hours.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in tight agreement to forecast a south-south-eastward track within the next 24 hours. Beyond, system might merge with the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a south-eastward re-curving motion. Strong winds should persist during this extratropicalisation, with a high speed of the track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (952 hPa) located at 17.8S 38.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.1S 39.1E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.7S 39.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.1S 39.2E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 22.7S 38.0E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso is always quite stationary, but is expected in the next hours to go slowly away from the coast eastward and then interaction of the system with the land is lessening. Convection is restructuring above the center with a small central dense overcast and an eye in micro-waves data (SSMIS 0243) and the beginning of an hot spot on satellite imagery.

At 24 to 36 hours, Funso is expected to be under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere and should track slowly east to southeastward. Then, up to 48 hours, a ridge should build east of the system and the track should recurve south to southwestward. Beyond (day 4 and day 5) a mid-troposphere ridge rebuilt west of the system, and the system should slow down.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located beneath the ridge axis. Upper level divergence is good equatorward. Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. They are expected to improve j+2 with the building of a temporarily second outflow channel poleward.

Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) as it is going away from the coast and it should deepen regularly. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track over less energetic water, and with a small north northeasterly upper level constraint.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the south-western coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
14:00 PM FST January 22 2012
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1003 hPa) located at 19.0S 179.2W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery radar and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Convection remains persistent near the system over the past 24 hours. Organization has not improved much in the last 24 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA. TD06F lies along the south pacific convergence zone, just south Of 250 HPA ridge axis and east of upper trough in a low sheared environment.

Global models have picked the system and slowly move it aouth southeast without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ETHEL (07-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (988 hPa) located at 27.8S 65.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle reaching locally storm force winds in the northeastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center in the northern semi-circle extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 30.5S 67.0E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
24 HRS: 34.0S 72.4E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Convective pattern has destructured during the past 6 hours due to the strengthening vertical wind shear (30kt according to the CIMSS analysis) and the system arriving over cooler sea surface temperature. Clockwise circulation is completely exposed north of the convection and should become extra-tropical pattern in the next hours.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in tight agreement to forecast a south-south-eastward track within the next 12 hours. Beyond, system might merge with the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes with a south-eastward re-curving motion. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalization, with a high speed of the track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (960 hPa) located at 17.8S 38.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 2 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/D0.5/18 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 39.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.7S 39.8E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.9S 38.6E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 23.2S 37.9E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso is beginning to go slowly away from the coast eastward and then interaction of the system with the land is lessening. Convection is restructuring above the center with a banding eye on satellite imagery.

At 24 to 36 hours, Funso is expected to be under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere and should track slowly east to south-eastward. Then, up to 48 hours, a ridge should build east of the system and the track should recurve south to southwestward. Beyond (day 4 and day 5) a mid-troposphere ridge rebuilt west of the system, and the system should slow down.

Upper level analysis indicates the system is located beneath the ridge axis. Upper level divergence is good equatorward. Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. They are expected to improve j+2 with the building of a second outflow channel poleward.

Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) as it is going away from the coast and it should deepen regularly. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track over less energetic water, and with a small north northeasterly upper level constraint.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the southwestern coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
18:00 PM FST January 22 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1003 hPa) located at 21.0S 179.2E is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Organization in the past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection remains persistent near the system with tops cooling in the past 3 hours. System lies along the south pacific convergence zone, just to the south of the 250 HPA ridge axis, influenced by strong northwesterly winds and centered in a moderate to high shear environment. Low level circulation center was fully exposed around 0600 AM UTC. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and slowly moving it southwestwards without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICAL, FORMER ETHEL (07-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Depression, Former Ethel (986 hPa) located at 29.4S 65.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
180 NM radius from the center extending up to 250 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 32.3S 69.4E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)
24 HRS: 36.0S 76.4E - 45 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

System is taking an extra-tropical pattern.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a south southeastward then southeastward track within the next 24 hours. System will merge with the westerly circulation of mid-latitudes. Strong winds should persist during this extra-tropicalization, with high speed of the track.

This will be the last tropical cyclone advisory issued on this system..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 22 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (960 hPa) located at 17.8S 38.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/18 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.5S 39.6E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.7S 39.6E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.3S 38.2E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 23.4S 37.9E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso continues to go slowly eastward away from the coast. Dvorak analysis is difficult due to very small size of the system. Deep convection close to the center has clearly enhanced with very cold cloud tops. 85 GHZ SSMIS microwave at 1509 PM UTC shows a banding eye.

Within the next 12 hours, Funso is expected to remain under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere and should track slowly east southeastward then southeastward. Beyond, a ridge should rebuild in the east of the system and the track might recurve southward and then southwestward. At the end of forecast period (day 4 and day 5), a mid-tropospheric ridge rebuilt west of the system. Both contradictory steering flows might provide deceleration on southward track.

Upper level analysis indicates that system is located beneath a ridge axis. Upper level divergence is good equatorward. Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. They are expected to improve from j+2 with the building of a second outflow channel poleward.

Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) as it is going away from the coast and it should regularly intensify. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track over less warm waters and strengthening of a north-northeasterly upper level constraint.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island and the south-western coasts of Madagascar) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 23 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (968 hPa) located at 18.0S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.7S 39.4E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 20.0S 39.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.2S 38.1E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 23.6S 38.1E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso continues to go slowly east-southeastward. Deep convection has well consolidated close to the center with very cold cloud tops and a warm point reappears on infrared enhanced pictures. System size is very small and mean sea level pressure has been revised higher. CI has been maintained at 5.0- in relationship with evident start of re-intensification. We can see strong convective activity far away east of the system.

Within the next hours, Funso is expected to remain under the steering influence of the near-equatorial ridge of mid-troposphere situated in the northeast, and should track slowly southeastward. Beyond, a ridge builds in the east of the system and the track might recurve southward and then south-westward. From j+3, a mid-tropospheric ridge rebuilds west of the system and a trough quickly transits south. Both contradictory steering flows might provide deceleration on southward track. An uncertainty exists for the final track and a westward recurve is not totally excluded (like ECMWF forecast) that should bring Funso toward the Mozambique coasts.

Upper level conditions are expected to remain good throughout the forecast period. Funso encounters again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) and it should regularly intensify. At the end of the forecast period, system should weaken again as it will track over less warm waters by going down toward the south.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
9:00 AM FST January 23 2012
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 06 (1003 hPa) located at 22.3S 179.4E is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on multisatellite/visible infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Organization in the past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection displaced east of partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies along the south pacific convergence zone, just to the south of the 250 HPA ridge axis, influenced by strong northwesterly winds in a moderate to high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and slowly moving it southeastwards without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST January 23 2012
================================================= ===

The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located near 11S 134E about 120 km north of Maningrida at 9:30am CST on 23 January. The low is expected to move slowly west to southwest and gradually deepen close to the coast during the next few days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: Moderate
Thursday: Moderate

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:11 PM WST January 23 2012
=========================

An active monsoon trough lies between 12S 90E and 14S 125E. The trough is expected to intensify over the next couple of days and by Wednesday it is likely to be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the Indonesian archipelago, including Christmas Island.

One or two significant lows are likely to develop in the monsoon trough between longitudes 100E and 115E and a tropical cyclone may form as early as Wednesday. At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be directly affected, but there is an elevated risk of a cyclone impact later in the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================

Tuesday: Low
Wednesday: High
Thursday: High

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 23 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (960 hPa) located at 18.3S 39.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 19.4S 39.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 20.8S 38.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 22.7S 37.8E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 23.9S 38.0E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Funso tracks away from Mozambicans coastline and intensifies again as previously forecast. Inner core remains very small with less than 40 NM diameter (refer to ssmis-f17 0230 AM UTC) with a pinhole eye and a second external convective band (opened southwestward) from 40 to 60 NM radius from the center. Within the next hours, Funso keeps on undergoing the steering influence of the mid-level near-equatorial ridge northeastward, and should track slowly southeastwards.

Beyond, a ridge builds in the east of the system and the track might recurve southwards and then south-westwards. From j+3, a mid-tropospheric ridge rebuilds west of the system and a trough quickly transits south. Both contradictory steering flows might provide deceleration on southward track.

An strong uncertainty exists for the final track (refer to uncertainty cone) and a westward recurve is not totally excluded (like ECMWF forecast and its ensemble) that should steer Funso toward the Mozambique coastlines with a possible landfall in the region of Inhambane on Friday 27th. Current RSMC forecast track remains consistent compare to the previous ones waiting for future numerical weather prediction models runs. Over this track, environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to 96 hours encountering again high energetic potential sea surface temperature (29C) and it should regularly intensify.

At the end of the forecast range, system should weaken again as it will track over less warm waters by shifting down toward the south.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
18:00 PM FST January 23 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1003 hPa) located at 23.1S 179.7W is reported as moving south at 5 knots. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Organization in the past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection displaced east of low level circulation center. System lies along the south pacific convergence zone and south of 250 HPA ridge axis. System is steered southeast wards by northwest deep layer mean flow. TD06F lies in an area of moderate shear. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked the system and slowly moving it southeastwards without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 23 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (954 hPa) located at 18.8S 39.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 20.1S 39.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 21.6S 39.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 23.4S 38.5E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 25.0S 38.8E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

Both msg2 and meteosat7 show a fluctuating cloud feature. Since 1030z, msg2 channel hrv reveals a rather bad defined cdo and a ragged eye. On enhanced infrared imagery, very small size of the system does not allow to capture the real eye temperature which is probably warmer than measured by meteosat7 and noaa19 1053z swath. Inner core remains very small with less than 60 nm diameter (refer to AMSUB noaa19 at 1053z) with a pinhole eye. Within the next 48 hours, Funso keeps on undergoing the steering influence of the near-equatorial mid-level highs prolonged by a ridge in the east of the system and is expected to keeps on tracking southwards. Over this track, environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to tau84 over high heat content waters.

At the end of the forecast range, system should track southeastwards undergoing the steering influence of a building mid-level ridge located on the southeast of Madagascar. It is expected to track over less warm waters and to weaken undergoing a strengthening westerly wind shear.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast all the tracks oversea in the middle of the channel. The probability for a landfall at short or medium range appears poor now. Tropical cyclone should however cause sustained southerly winds over Mozambique channel in the region of Inhambane where gusts up to 80 km/h should occur on Wednesday 25 and Thursday 26.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa Island) should closely monitor the progress of this system

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 23 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (950 hPa) located at 19.2S 39.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 20.7S 39.2E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 21.9S 38.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 23.2S 38.3E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 24.4S 38.6E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

The system has clearly intensify during the next 6 hours, with an eye better defined, always very small, but cooler, within a colder central dense overcast. The system show always an inner core very small with less than 60 NM diameter (refer to SMIS 1504z) with a curved band more than an half-turn.

Within the next 48 hours, Funso keeps on undergoing the steering influence of the near-equatorial mid-level highs prolonged by a ridge in the east of the system and is expected to keeps on tracking southwards. Over this track, environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to 84 hours over high heat content waters.

At the end of the forecast range, system should track southeastwards undergoing the steering influence of a building mid-level ridge located on the southeast of Madagascar. It is expected to track over less warm waters and to weaken undergoing a strengthening westerly wind shear.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast all the tracks oversea in the middle of the channel. The probability for a landfall at short or medium range appears poor now.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa Island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
6:00 AM FST January 24 2012
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1001 hPa) located at 24.0S 176.6W is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Organization in the past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection displaced east of low level circulation center. System lies along the south pacific convergence zone and south of 250HPA ridge axis. System is steered southeastwards by northwest deep layer mean wind flow into an area of strong shear. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700HPA.

Global models have picked the system and slowly moving it southeastwards without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 19.8S 39.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T 6.0/6.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.4S 38.7E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.4S 38.4E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 23.6S 38.3E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 24.7S 38.7E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

The system has clearly intensify during the next 12 hours, with an eye better defined, always very small, but cooler, within a colder central dense overcast. The system show always an inner core very small with less than 60 NM diameter (refer to SSMIS 1504z) with a curved band more than an half-turn.

Within the next 48 hours, Funso keeps on undergoing the steering influence of the near-equatorial mid-level highs prolonged by a ridge in the east of the system and is expected to keeps on tracking southwards. Over this track, environmental conditions remains favorable for regular further intensification up to 60 hours over high heat content waters.

At the end of the forecast range, system should track southeastwards undergoing the steering influence of a building mid-level ridge located on the southeast of Madagascar. It is expected to track over less warm waters and to weaken undergoing a strengthening westerly wind shear.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement to forecast all the tracks oversea in the middle of the channel.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST January 24 2012
================================================= ===

An active monsoon trough is located near the north coast. A Tropical Low, 999 hPa, was located near 11.6S 131.3E at 12:30pm CST on 24 January, about 100 km north northeast of Darwin and moving southwest at 7 km/h. The low is expected to take a more southerly track later today then move inland over the Top End tomorrow.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================================

Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 20.5S 39.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
18 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.5S 39.5E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.5S 39.2E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.3S 39.2E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 26.0S 40.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

After a maximum at 2030 PM UTC yesterday, system intensity has rapidly fluctuated in relationship with its small size. Eye is still minuscule within a very cold 90 to 120 NM central dense overcast.

Within the next 24 hours, Funso remains under the steering influence of a ridge situated in the east and is expected to keep a southward track. Beyond, ridge moves away eastward as a shallow trough transist in the south of the system from west to east. Funso might decelerate and take a south southeastward track. Within the next 48 hours, environmental conditions remain very favorable under a upper level ridge and over high heat content waters.

From j+3, system should continue to track southeastward by accelerating with a deeper trough coming from the west in the south of the system. At the same time, a westerly vertical wind shear should slowly strengthen and Funso will encounter more and more cold waters. So system might progressively weaken.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

Inhabitants of the central and southern channel (including Europa Island) should closely monitor the progress of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 PM WST January 24 2012
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 112.6E or 680 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.5S 110.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.9S 109.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.5S 109.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.1S 109.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

System assigned T1.0 at 00Z. Yesterday the cloud system center could not be defined in an area less than 2.5 degrees. Overnight convection consolidated near a developing low level circulation center. ASCAT and visible imagery show the low level circulation center gradually becoming better defined but low level cloud lines are still poorly organized.

The system has shown further improvement over the last 6 hours and FT is set at 1.5. Shear is generally low south of 15S and models indicate the system will experience low shear for the next 72 hours. Combined with sea surface temperatures over 30 degrees the system is expected to develop faster than the standard Dvorak rate and may reach tropical cyclone intensity by early tomorrow.

The subsequent track may develop on the rate of intensification with some models indicating the system will take a southerly or south southeasterly track on Thursday. On Friday the system is likely to be near 20S. Sea surface temperature decrease south of 20S and the system is likely to be slow moving which may cause upwelling and reduce Sea surface temperatures. As shear remains light, weakening in the longer term is more likely to be due to low oceanic heat content.

The monsoon trough is expected to remain strong over the next few days, resulting in strong northwesterly flow extending well to the east of the system center and bringing moderate swell and increased rainfall to coastal areas of the Pilbara and Kimberley.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 13:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F
18:00 PM FST January 24 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 06F (1001 hPa) located at 24.5S 173.7W is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Organization in the past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection Displaced east of llcc. System lies along the south pacific convergence zone and south of 250hpa ridge axis. System is steered southeastwards by northwest deep layer mean wind flow into an area of strong shear. Cyclonic circulation extends to 850hpa.

Global models have picked the system and slowly moving it east southeastwards without much intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24hours is low.

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
======================================

An active monsoon trough is located near the north coast and at 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low [997 hPa] was located near 11.9S 131.1E, approximately 65 km north northeast of Darwin, moving south southwest at 15 km/h.

The low is expected to remain slow moving near the coast tonight then move slowly inland during Wednesday.

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 21.3S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.4S 38.9E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 23.4S 39.0E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.3S 39.2E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 25.3S 39.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

System intensity is more stable for the latest hours. General structure is unchanged. Eye is still minuscule within a very cold 90 to 110 NM central dense overcast.

Within the next 48 hours, the ridge of mid-troposphere situated in the east moves away eastward as an other ridge might rebuilt a bit in the west. After an accelerating for the day on a south-southwestward track, Funso might decelerate again tomorrow and take a southward to south-southeastward track due to ridge going away eastward. Within this forecast period, environmental conditions remain very favorable under a upper level ridge and over high heat content waters. System might keep its current intensity with fluctuations.

From j+3, system should accelerate again and continue to track south-southeastward with a deeper trough coming from the west in the south of the system. At the same time, a westerly vertical wind shear should slowly and then rapidly strengthen and Funso will encounter more and more cold waters. So system might slowly weaken and then begin its extra-tropicalization.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

According to the actual forecast track, Funso might transit in the west of Europa Island at about 140 km westward. Strong winds with gust in the range of 100/110 km/h and heavy rains are expected.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL LOW 11U
9:00 PM WST January 24 2012
================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 111.3E or 720 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.0S 109.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.2S 109.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.9S 109.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.0S 110.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

The system continues to track rather quickly to the west, with 15 to 25 knots upper level easterlies shearing most convection to the downwind side of the system center. Curved band and shear pattern analyses both indicate DT of 2.0.

Mid level steering is forecast to weaken dramatically in 12 to 24 hours as the subtropical ridge folds underneath a cutoff over SE Australia. Meanwhile the remains of TC Ethel have undergone extratropical transition into the southern ocean, and the downstream effect of this transition may perturb the model forecasts, so some care needs to be take in assessment of model guidance. Never the less it appear reasonable the in the 24 to 72 hour time frame the system will move in a southerly or south southeasterly direction, closer to northwest cape, whilst intensifying steadily.

Relatively shallow sea surface temperatures may limit the intensity of this system , particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters outh of 20 south.

In the longer term a westerly track is expected to resume.

Strong monsoonal flow is forecast to produce a larger than normal gale radius on this system, and also contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant wave heights affecting Christmas island, the West Kimberley, and adjacent Pilbara coasts.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 19:30 PM UTC..

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
======================================

9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low [997 hPa] was located near 12.9S, 130.6E, approximately 60 km south southwest of Darwin, moving south southwest at 18 km/h.

The low is expected to remain slow moving near the coast tonight then move slowly inland during Wednesday.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 AM WST January 25 2012
================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.1S 109.7E or 800 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.3S 108.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.6S 108.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.6S 109.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.7S 110.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

The system has built an upper level high over the center, and convection is beginning to consolidate near the center. Microwave imagery suggests a reasonable curved band structure is developing under the cirrus overcast.

Shear/curved bands can be construed to suggest a DT of 3.0, however both MET and PATTERN at 2.5 are more clear cut. Recent ASCAT pass suggests 30 knots on the western side under deep convection, with 15 knots to the east.

Mid level steering is forecast to weaken dramatically in 12 to 24 hours as the subtropical ridge folds underneath a cutoff over SE Australia. The impact of the change in steering should be viewed with some caution as the model guidance will no doubt have been impacted by influence of the extratropical of TC Ethel into the Southern Ocean. However, in the 24 to 72 hour time frame it appears likely the system will move in a southerly or south southeasterly direction, closer to NW cape, whilst intensifying steadily.

Relatively shallow sea surface temperature may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20 south.

Strong monsoonal flow is forecast to produce a larger than normal gale radius on this system, and also contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant wave heights affecting Christmas island, the West Kimberley, and adjacent Pilbara coasts.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 1:30 AM UTC..

Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (939 hPa) located at 21.8S 39.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 55 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in th northwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.8S 38.8E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 23.2S 38.9E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.1S 39.2E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 25.5S 39.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

F17 SSMIS 1451 PM UTC shows an outer eyewall closing at about 25 nm radius from the center. An eyewall replacement cycle has probably began , which should weakened Funso intensity within the next hours. Neither METEOSAT7 infrared imagery nor msg2 night special colored composite product do not allow to confirm that the eyewall replacement cycle has began but short range intensity forecast reflects this high probability.

System keeps on tracking globally southwards under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east. This ridge is expected to move away as another one strengthens on the west of the system. Funso is consequently expected to slow down again within Wednesday 25. If the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Funso should start a new intensifying phase. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable Wednesday 25 under the upper level ridge with an expected building second outflow channel poleward.

This environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable up to Friday 27. Then, from Saturday 28, funso is expected to accelerate south-southeastwards in relationship with a deep trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing both cooler sea surface temperatures and an strengthening westerly vertical wind shear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario. According to the actual forecast track, Funso might transit in the west of Europa island at about 150 km westward during the next 12 hours. Strong winds gusting at about 100/110 km/h and heavy rains are expected. A transiting track more closer than expected is not excluded at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..

Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
==========================================

3:30 am CST a Tropical Low [996 hPa] was located near 13.6S 130.7E, approximately 60 km southwest of Adelaide River, moving south southwest at 7 knots.

The low is expected to turn southeast and move further inland today.