TD Alvin - Baja California, Mexico

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST February 4 2012
=====================================

At 1:00 PM EST, the monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea while a low currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea, about 450km east of Cairns. The low is forecast to move east across the Coral Sea, crossing 160E during Monday. The low will slowly intensify over the next couple of days. Even if this low does become a tropical cyclone it is unlikely to have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Very Low

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 PM EST February 4 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 16.9S 150.7E or 100 km southeast of Willis Is and 490 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.1S 152.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.0S 154.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.2S 159.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 17.3S 164.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone centre position confident as system within Willis Island radar. Convection has flared near the low level circulation center suggesting lowering shear and increasing organization, though most of the convection still remains to the west of the system. Strongest winds remain to the north of the system with consistent Willis Island observations of 45 knots. Favourable upper divergence and wind shear indicating gradual intensification probable over the next 48 hours. The system has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours and is expected to continue moving to the east.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
5:00 AM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (986 hPa) located at 16.9S 151.8E or 640 km east of Cairns and 590 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.0S 154.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.9S 156.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.3S 161.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.2S 166.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on Willis Island radar. Deep convection persists to the west of the low level circulation center, however showing weak organization. Strongest winds remain to the north of the system. Favorable upper level divergence and decreasing wind shear may lead to gradual intensification over the next 48 hours. The system has increased its easterly movement over the past few hours and is expected to continue moving to the east.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
9:00 AM FST February 5 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (995 hPa) located at 22.0S 177.9E. Position poor based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation and surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 12 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the past 12 hours and is more confined in the eastern semi-circle. Depression lies under an upper diffluent region and in an area of low to moderate shear. The depression will continue to be steered east-southeastwards. Sea surface temperature is around 27C

Global models are moving the system east southeastwards with slight intensification in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 AM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 17.2S 152.5E or 720 km east of Cairns and 285 km east southeast of Willis Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.2S 154.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.2S 157.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.7S 162.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.7S 166.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on Visible imagery, showing deep convection located to the west of the low level circulation center. System organization continues to improve under a favorable upper level diffulent pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
5:00 PM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 17.2S 154.1E or 680 km northeast of Mackay and 800 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
15 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.1S 156.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.3S 158.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 17.8S 163.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.0S 167.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on Visible imagery, showing deep convection located to the west of the low level circulation center. System organization continues to improve under a favorable upper level diffulent pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..

Special Warnings For Fiji and Tonga
=======================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS

A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP

Tropical Depression 10F (992 hPa) located at 22.6S 179.8E or 255 NM west southwest of Nukalofa.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
18:00 PM FST February 5 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (992 hPa) located at 22.8S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved in the last 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to northeast semi-circle. Low level circulation center has become obscured and difficult to locate in past 3 hours. Outflow good to north through east to southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies along a surface trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The depression is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean flow into a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 28C

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east southeastwards with some intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 PM EST February 5 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 17.0S 154.9E or 760 km northeast of Mackay and 890 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.0S 157.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.2S 160.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 17.9S 165.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.7S 169.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on IR and microwave imagery, showing deep convection located to the west of the low level circulation center. System organization continues to improve under a favorable upper level diffulent pattern. Jasmine is expected to gradually intensify over the next 48 hours due to moderate deep layer shear while continuing to move eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
0:00 AM FST February 6 2012
====================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (991 hPa) located at 23.4S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to eastern semi-circle. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Outflow good to north and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies just to the east of an eastward moving upper trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The system lies under a high sheared environment and is being steered eastwards. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east-southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
5:00 AM EST February 6 2012
=========================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 16.8S 156.5E or 910 km east northeast of Mackay and 1060 km east northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 16.8S 158.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.0S 160.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 17.6S 165.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.7S 169.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on 1732UTC MTSAT IR and 1437UTC AMSUB 85GHz imagery. Position poor.

Intensity based on Dvorak embedded center with embedded distance of 0.5 degrees though with CDG cloud top temperatures. 1400UTC SATCON agrees with 63kt [one minute] mean winds.

Deep convection generally to the north and west of low level circulation center with moderate easterly shear of around 15 knots. Strong upper divergence in all quadrants over the past 6 hours despite this shear.

Global models are consistent with easterly forecast path and further development over the next 48 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
6:00 AM FST February 6 2012
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (991 hPa) located at 22.4S 176.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to eastern semi-circle. Outflow good to north and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies just to the east of an eastward moving upper trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The system lies under a low to moderate sheared environment and is being steered eastwards towards increasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD10F.

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
11:00 AM EST February 6 2012
=========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 16.9S 157.8E or 1020 km east northeast of Mackay and 1190 km east northeast of Townsville. has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrants
60 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.1S 159.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.3S 162.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.0S 166.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.6S 169.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on MTSAT visible animation. Position fair.

Intensity based on Dvorak curved band with 1.0 wrap yielding DT3.5. PAT adjusted MET agrees. CI held at 4.0 for initial weakening trend.

The system has weakened slightly as a result of easterly shear.

Global models are consistent with an easterly forecast path and further development over the next 48 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advice/bulletin from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Jasmine will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
9:00 AM FST February 6 2012
=============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (994 hPa) located at 17.1S 179.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and surface observation

Organization has improved slightly in the past 12 hours. Convection has increased in the last 12 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge and under the influence of an easterly steering. Low to moderate shear over the system. Sea surface temperature is around 27 to 28C.

Most of the global models are not picking this system. Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.

Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U)
5:00 PM EST February 6 2012
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (979 hPa) located at 17.1S 158.9E or 1120 km east northeast of Mackay and 1300 km east of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center in northern quadrants

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northern quadrants
60 NM from the center in southern quadrants

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.3S 161.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.8S 164.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 19.8S 169.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 22.6S 171.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Tropical Cyclone center position based on MTSAT visible animation. Position fair.

Intensity based on Dvorak curved band with 1.05 wrap yielding DT4.0. PAT and MET agree.

Banding around the system has improved over the past few hours.

Global models are consistent with an easterly forecast path and further development over the next 48 hours.

Final Tropical Cyclone Bulletin from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center in Brisbane.

Bulletins will be issued by RSMC Nadi at 14:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
18:00 PM FST February 6 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HAAPAI, VAVA'U AND TONGATAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (994 hPa) located at 17.4S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with multiple bands trying to wrap around low level circulation center. Outflow good to north and southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies along a surface trough and beneath a upper short wave trough. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500hpa. System lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeastwards by a northwesterly deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. sea surface temperature around 28C.

Global models have picked up this system and and maintain a southeastwards with some intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Service
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
18:00 PM FST February 6 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (991 hPa) located at 24.3S 169.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has not improved much in the past 12 hours. Convection has been sheared and displaced southeast of low level circulation center. System lies under an upper trough and under the influence of an easterly steering. Moderate to high shear over the system. Sea surface temperature is around 28C

Most of the global models are not picking this system. Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
0:00 AM FST February 7 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HAAPAI, VAVA'U AND TONGATAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (994 hPa) located at 18.1S 176.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increasing in areal coverage with tops cooling. Primary bands trying to wrap around the low level circulation center. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Outflow good from the north to southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies along a surface trough and to the east of an upper short wave trough. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500hpa. System lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Global models have picked up this system and maintain a southeastward track with some intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12U/12F)
0:00 AM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 17.4S 160.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagey and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved over the past 24 hours. Convection remains same in the last 6 hours. System remains in a region of strong diffluent enhanced by a short-wave trough just to the southwest. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the east by strong westerly steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.9 wrap

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone still expected to intensify further as it remains in a favorable environment. Models generally agree on an eastward movement and further intensification within the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 17.6S 162.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.1S 165.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 20.6S 169.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
6:00 AM FST February 7 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HAAPAI, VAVA'U AND NIUATOPUTAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category One (987 hPa) located at 18.8S 174.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 18 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands trying to trap around the low level circulation center. Outflow good to the north and southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies to the east of an upper short wave trough and south of 250 hpa ridge axis. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500hpa. System lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of decreasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 28C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap yielding

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 21.2S 170.4W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.0S 166.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 27.7S 157.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1)


The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Two (978 hPa) located at 17.7S 161.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position fair based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery with peripheral surface reports

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved over the past 24 hours. Convection has increased in the last 6 hours. System remains in a region of strong diffluent enhanced by a short-wave trough just to the southwest. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the southeast by strong northwesterly steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.85 wrap yielding

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone still expected to intensify further as
It remains in a favorable environment. Models generally agree on a east-southeast movement and further intensification within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 18.0S 164.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.7S 166.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.8S 170.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
12:00 PM FST February 7 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 20.0S 171.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 18 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands trying to trap around the low level circulation center. System lies south of 250 HPA ridge axis. Outflow good to the north and east. System lies in a low to moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of increasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.9 wrap

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeastward with decreasing intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.2S 168.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.8S 165.0W - 40 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (955 hPa) located at 17.4S 163.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly over the past 6 hours with eye forming. System remains in a region of upper diffluence enhanced by a short-wave trough just to the west. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the east southeast by strong west-northwest steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on dg eye with lg surround

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Models generally agree on an east southeastward movement in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 18.7S 165.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.6S 168.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 22.9S 171.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..

FKPS01 NFFN 070225
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20120207/0000Z
TCAC: NFFN
TC: JASMINE
NR: 03
PSN: S1800 E16300
MOV: ESE 13KT
C: 955HPA
MAX WIND: 80KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 07/0600 S1818 E16418
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 07/1200 S1842 E16536
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 07/1800 S1900 E16654
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 08/0000 S1936 E16806
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 75KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20120207/0700Z

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (945 hPa) located at 18.5S 164.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 14 knots. Position good based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly over the past 12 hours with eye forming. System remains in a region of upper diffluence enhanced by a trough just to the west. Outflow remains good. Cyclone is being steered to the east-southeast by strong west northwest steering and lies in an area of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye with lg surround

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Models generally agree on an east southeastward movement in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 19.3S 167.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 20.5S 169.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.6S 172.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
18:00 PM FST February 7 2012
===================================

* A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 21.4S 169.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 22 knots. Position fair based on GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Organization has improved significantly past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. Eye evident in past visible imagery has become cloud filled in last 6 hours. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicates the system lies in a low to moderately sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean flow into an area of increasing shear. Sea surface temperature around 27C and expected to decrease on projected path.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models maintains a southeast movement without further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 24.4S 165.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 27.2S 160.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

*note no more special weather warnings will be issued for Niue

945 hPa, Category 4 TC Jasmine

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (985 hPa) located at 23.2S 167.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands wrapping around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. System lies south of 250 HPA diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMSS analysis indicates the system lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean wind flow. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.8 wrap yielding DT=3.5, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeast movement without further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 26.4S 162.3W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.8S 157.1W - 45 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC Cyril will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 8 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (942 hPa) located at 17.4S 165.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly in the past 12 hours. cold convection persist around low level circulation center. Eye still well defined in infrared. outflow remains good. System lies to the east of a short-wave upper trough center in a weak shear environment. Cyclone steered by west to northwest deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in b surround yielding DT = 6.0, PT= 5.5 and MET=5.5.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Models generally agree on a southeast movement and gradually easing the system.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 19.7S 168.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 21.3S 170.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 24.4S 172.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
6:00 AM FST February 8 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril, Category Two (987 hPa) located at 23.9S 165.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
150 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Convection decreased past six hours. Primary bands remain wrapped around the low level circulation center from northwest to southwest. System lies to the east of a short wave upper tough and beneath a upper diffluent region. Outflow restricted to west but remains good elsewhere. CIMMS analysis indicates the system lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered southeast by a northwest deep layer mean wind flow. Sea surface temperature around 27C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.7 wrap giving DT=3.0, MET and PT agree,

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The consensus of the global models agree on accelerating the system to the southeast into cooler sea surface temperature region.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 26.7S 161.1W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.9S 155.8W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

This is the final tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services.

Next advisory will be issued by Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 8 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (948 hPa) located at 19.3S 167.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 14 knots. Position good based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good. Eye partially cloud filled but still discernible. Outflow good to the east but restricted elsewhere. Jasmine lies downstream of a 250 HPA short-wave trough in a weak sheared environment. Cyclone is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow.

Dvorak analysis based on mg eye in lg surround yielding DT = 5.0, PT= 5.0 and MET=5.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Most global models move jasmine southeast with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 20.4S 169.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 21.8S 170.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 24.3S 173.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
13:00 PM NZDT February 8 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril (990 hPa) located at 27.5S 161.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in southwestern semi-circle
240 NM from the center in northeast semi-circle

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 8 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (958 hPa) located at 17.4S 168.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good. Eye partially cloud filled but still discernible. Outflow good to the east but restricted elsewhere. Jasmine lies under 250 HPA short-wave trough in a weak sheared environment. Cyclone is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow.

Dvorak analysis based on dg eye in lg surround yielding DT = 5.0, PT= 5.5 and MET=5.5 final Dvorak based of DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models move jasmine southeast with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 21.1S 169.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 22.6S 171.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 25.2S 173.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
19:00 PM NZDT February 8 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril (990 hPa) located at 29.7S 157.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in the sector from south through west to southwest
240 NM from the center from northwest through northeast to east

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 8 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (945 hPa) located at 20.5S 169.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 12 knots. Position good based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Overall organization remains good. Outflow remains good. System lies to the east of an upper trough in a weak sheared environment. Cyclone is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in b surround yielding DT=6.0. MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models move jasmine southeast with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 21.9S 170.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 23.3S 171.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
1:00 AM NZDT February 9 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril (990 hPa) located at 30.5S 154.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in sector from east through south to southwest

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 9 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (945 hPa) located at 21.1S 169.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on multisatellite enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Overall organization remains good with the infrared imagery showing the system becoming more symmetrical past 24 hours. Outflow remains good. Eye still well defined in infrared imagery. Slight warming of tops past 3 hours. The system lies to the east of an upper trough in a weak sheared environment. CIMMS analysis indicate the system being steered southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Sea surface temperature around 29C and is expected to be less on the projected path.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in lg surround, yielding DT=5.5, PT=6.0 and MET=6.0. Final Dvorak based on DT,

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS

The consensus of the global models agree on a southeast with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 22.5S 171.0E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 23.8S 172.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 26.0S 174.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET February 8 2012
====================================

A monsoon trough stretches along 15S axis in the Mozambique Channel and waves between 12S and 15S from 50E to 80E. inter-tropical convergence zone convective activity is mainly located on the northern edge of the aforementioned monsoon trough, but seems to organize a bit around a relative minimum that can be very approximately localized near 12.3S 69.9E at 1000Z. However, convection remains very fluctuating. 0346Z ASCAT pass of this morning is not centered on this area, but it is possible to depict an elongated clockwise circulation on a west east axis with winds at about 10-15 kt, reaching 20 knots due to gradient effect with subtropical high pressures. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa thanks to surrounding buoys observations.

Available Numerical weather prediction models analyze this low and deepen it slowly within the next 48 hours on a more or less rapid west southwestward track on the northwestern edge of low to mid-level subtropical high pressures situated in the southeast. Throughout this forecast period, low level inflow is good on both sides, ocean heat content is very favorable (sea surface temperature at about 28-29C and upper level conditions are good under an upper level ridge.

Beyond 48 hours, south eastward mid-level ridge might weaken and so it is expected that system will
decelerate on a west-southwestward or southward track. This track varies depending Numerical weather prediction models. With establishment of both upper level outflows, system should begin a phase of faster intensification.

Inhabitants of Mascarenes Archipelago (first Saint-Brandon and after Maurice and La Reunion) might closely monitor the evolution of this nascent system.

For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical depression is poor to fair. Beyond, potential becomes good.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER CYRIL (11F)
7:00 AM NZDT February 9 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low, Former Cyril (994 hPa) located at 31.0S 152.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 9 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Four (952 hPa) located at 21.7S 170.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position good based on hourly GMSS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Overall organization remains good with the infrared imagery showing the system becoming more symmetrical past 24 hours. Outflow remains good. Eye partially cloud filled but still discernible. The system lies to the south of 250hpa ridge axis and east of upper trough in a weak sheared environment. CIMMS analysis indicate the system being steered southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Sea surface temperature around 28C and is decreasing along the projected path

Dvorak analysis based on lg eye in b surround, yielding DT=5.0, PT=5.5 and MET=5.0. Final Dvorak based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/A0.0/24 HRS.

The consensus of the global models agree on a southeast with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 23.1S 171.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.5S 172.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 9 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (955 hPa) located at 22.5S 170.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 10 knots. Position good based on hourly GMSS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
80 NM from the center elsewhere

Overall organization remains good. Outflow remains good. The system lies to the south of 250hpa ridge axis and east of upper trough in a weak sheared environment. CIMMS analysis indicate the system being steered southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Sea surface temperature around 28C and is decreasing along the projected path

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in lg surround, yielding DT=5.0, PT=5.5 and MET=5.0. Final Dvorak based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Consensus of the global models agree on a southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 23.9S 171.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 9 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09 (1001 hPa) located at 14.1S 66.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.6S 64.4E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.6S 62.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.4S 59.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.6S 56.8E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Organization of the system has clearly improve during the past 24 hours (cf last microwave pictures SSMI and TRMM) but remains fluctuating. Partially ascat data at 05:00 AM suggest a 20-25 knot clockwise circulation, maximum winds should reach 30 knots in the western semi-circle within an outer band.

Mean sea level pressure has been estimated according to the bouys 14043 and 23946 close to the system. System is tracking west-south-westward on the northern edge of a low to mid-tropospheric ridge. It is forcast to follow this steering flow during the next 36 to 48 hours. On Saturday, it is forecast to slow down, due to a weakness in the anticyclonic belt in the south. Beyond 72 hours, the track should recurve west-north-westward with the rebuilding high pressure south of Madagascar.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for this track. On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular deepening of the system. Oceanic heat potential is very good. Upper level wind shear is weak and divergence is good. An outflow channel is expected to built poleward during 48 hours, on Friday and Saturday, with an upper level trough transiting in the south. It should be replaced by another one equatorward on Sunday.

Inhabitants of Mascarenes Islands and of the eastern coast of Madagascar are invited to follow with attention the evolution of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD 09R issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 9 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (955 hPa) located at 23.2S 171.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMSS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle
50 NM from the center elsewhere

Gale Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
75 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection around the eye has decreased significantly over past 24 hours. Outflow still remains good. System lies to the east of an upper trough in a weak sheared environment. CIMSS analysis indicate the system being steered south-southeast by deep layer mean north northwesterly flow. Sea surface temperature around 26C and is decreasing along the projected path.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in lg surround DT=5.0, PT=5.5 and MET=5.0. Final Dvorak based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeast movement with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 24.5S 171.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20112012
16:00 PM RET February 9 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 09 (998 hPa) located at 13.9S 65.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 14.8S 63.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 15.8S 61.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.7S 58.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 17.8S 56.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=====================

According to the last animated satellite pictures, convection is structuring above the center. System has deepen slightly during the past six hours.

System is tracking westward on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge. For the next 48 hours system should track west southwestward on the northwestern side of the subtropical high pressure in the mid-troposhere. On Saturday and Sunday, it is forecast to slow down, due to a weakness in the anticyclonic belt in the south. Beyond 72 hours, the track should recurve westward with the rebuilding of the high pressures south-east of Madagascar. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for this track.

On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular deepening of the system up to Sunday. Oceanic heat potential is very good.
Currently upper level wind shear is weak and divergence is good southward. The outflow channel is expected to improve poleward during the next 48 hours, as the system is approaching of an upper level trough transiting in the south. On Sunday and after, system should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of the rebuilding upper level anticyclone. Consequently intensity should level off trough the landfall at the end of the forecast period, on the eastern coast of Madagascar.

Inhabitants of Mascarenes Islands and of the eastern coast of Madagascar are invited to follow with attention the evolution of this system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD 09R issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 10 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (965 hPa) located at 23.8S 171.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery radar and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle
50 NM from the center elsewhere

Gale Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
75 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection around the eye has decreased significantly past 24 hours. Outflow remains good. Eye discernible in infrared imagery. Cloud tops warming rapidly. The system lies to the east of an upper trough in a weak sheared environment. CIMMS analysis indicate the system being steered southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow. Sst around 26C and is decreasing along the projected path

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in mg surround, yielding DT=4.5, PT=4.5 and MET=4.0. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southeast movement with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 24.9S 172.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 25.8S 173.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 25.9S 177.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 9 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 14.1S 64.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.2S 63.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 16.4S 61.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 17.7S 58.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 17.5S 55.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=====================

For latest hours, system shows an irregular central dense overcast pattern with a 100-120 NM diameter (DT at 3.0). At 1530z, system has been named "Giovanna" by Mauritius Meteorological Service. Winds extensions have been calibrated thanks to 1738 PM UTC ASCAT swath. Mean sea level pressure has been adjusted in relationship to 23946 buoy obs at 1710 PM UTC.

System is generally tracking west-southwestward on the north-western edge of the low-mid level subtropical ridge situated in the southeast. Within the next 36 hours, system should keep this track by slightly accelerating.

On Saturday, it is expected to slow down due to a weakness in the mid level anticyclonic belt in the south. Beyond 60 hours, track should recurve westward with the rebuilding of high pressures south-east of Madagascar. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for this track. ECMWF forecast that system will go down more toward the south on Saturday (RSMC official forecast track).

On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification up to Sunday. Oceanic heat potential is very good. Vertical wind shear is weak and divergence is good mainly southward. Poleward outflow channel is expected to improve within the next 48 hours, as the system is approaching of an upper level trough transiting in the south. On Sunday and after, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. Consequently intensity should level off and even a bit reduce before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar that is expected at the end of forecast period.

Inhabitants of Mascarenes Islands and of the eastern coast of Madagascar are invited to follow with attention the evolution of this system. Official forecast track bring Giovanna very closely south of Saint-Brandon in the morning on Saturday.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 10 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (961 hPa) located at 24.6S 171.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
70 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle
50 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
80 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Cloud tops warming past 12 hours. Outflow remains good. Eye partially cloud filled but still discernible in infrared imagery. The system lies to the east of an upper trough and south of 250 HPA ridge axis in a weak sheared environment. CIMMS analysis indicate the system being steered south southeast by deep layer mean north northwesterly flow. Sea surface temperature around 26C and is decreasing along the projected path.

Dvorak analysis based on ow eye in lg surround, yielding DT=5.0, PT=5.0 and MET=5.0. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 25.6S 172.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 26.2S 173.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

THE WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
13:00 PM NZDT February 10 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (965 hPa) located at 25.2S 172.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center in the western quadrant
70 NM from the center in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in the western quadrant
120 NM from the center in sector from northwest through northeast to southwest

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 10 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (992 hPa) located at 14.7S 63.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle and up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.6S 62.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.5S 60.4E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.5S 57.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 17.1S 53.9E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=====================

For the last 6 hours, system has intensified with a active convective band wrapping in the west of the the central cloud mass. Between 1710 PM UTC and 2110 PM UTC, sea level pressure of 23946 buoy is stable despite system is going away westward.

System is tracking west southwestward at about 10 kt on the north-western edge of the low-mid level subtropical ridge situated in the southeast. Within the next 36 hours, system should keep this track.

On Saturday, it is expected to slow down a bit due to a weakness in the mid level anticyclonic belt in the south. Beyond 48 hours, track should recurve westward with the rebuilding of high pressures south-east of Madagascar. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for this track. In regard of previous run, ECMWF forecast that system will go down less toward the south on Saturday with a less important deceleration. Consequently, RSMC official forecast track has been a little bit readjusted.

On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification up to Sunday. Oceanic heat potential is very good. Vertical wind shear is weak and divergence is good mainly southward. Poleward outflow channel is expected to improve within the next 36 hours, as the system is approaching of an upper level trough transiting in the south. On Sunday evening and after, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. Consequently intensity should level off then a bit reduce before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar that is expected on Tuesday early in the morning.

Inhabitants of Mascarenes Islands and of the eastern coast of Madagascar are invited to follow with attention the evolution of this system. Official forecast track bring Giovanna very closely of Saint Brandon on Saturday in the morning.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 10 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna (990 hPa) located at 15.3S 62.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
20 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.3S 61.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.1S 59.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.4S 56.8E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 17.3S 53.0E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

For the last 6 hours, system has intensified slowly, and always shows a central dense overcast pattern.

System is tracking west-southwestward on the northwestern edge of the low-mid level subtropical ridge situated in the south-east. Within the next 24 hours, system should keep this track.

On Saturday, it is expected to slow down a bit due to a weakness in the mid level anticyclonic belt in the south. Beyond 36 hours, track should recurve westward with the rebuilding of high pressures south-east of Madagascar. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for this track.

On this track, environmental conditions are favorable for a regular intensification up to Sunday. Oceanic heat potential is very good. Vertical wind shear is weak and divergence is good mainly southward. Poleward outflow channel is expected to improve within the next 36 hours, as the system is approaching of an upper level trough transiting in the south. On Monday, Giovanna should undergo a weak to moderate easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. So intensity should reduce before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar, expected on Tuesday morning.

Inhabitants of Mascarenes Islands and of the eastern coast of Madagascar are invited to follow with attention the evolution of this system. Official forecast track bring Giovanna very closely to Saint Brandon on Saturday in the morning.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
19:00 PM NZDT February 10 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (965 hPa) located at 25.8S 172.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in the western quadrant
120 NM from the center in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest