Atlantic Basin ready for Take-off.
Intro
After almost a month of pure quiet in the Atlantic Basin, it appears we might begin to pick up in actvity throughout the next two weeks.
Current Atlantic Tropics
A non-tropical frontal low located East-Northeast of Bermuda has began to become less frontal and more Tropical in-nature. The low has continued to organize throughout the day and was tagged "Invest 98L". Though it has waned in convective intensity lately, due to Diurnal Minimum, it was given a 40% chance of developing within the next two days - according to the NHC. Though I do see the odds sitting higher overall at around 50%, the true key to this system becoming Ernesto is for consistency and intensity of 98L. The NHC will watch and wait, just like they did for Hurricane Chris.
Figure 1.
Invest 98L gradually moving out to sea.
In addition to 98L, There is also a vigorous tropical wave fresh from Africa and could be something to watch as it traverses the open Atlantic. Though it's best chances for development are over the next 3 days, there has been no mention by the NHC whether this has a chance for development or not. I believe they're waiting this tropical wave out and seeing how long it will last over the waters south of Cape verde before having to mention it in their Tropical Weather Outlook.
It's a very healthy wave and could easily be tagged an invest at this moment.
Figure 2.
Vigorous East Atlantic Tropical Wave.
Forecasted Atlantic Activity
Lately, some of the gloabl models (Particularly the GFS[American], and NOGAPS) have latched onto the idea of developing a Cape Verde storm from a strong wave currently centered over West-Central Africa. Though consistency has been lacking with the model resolutions, it is still something that needs to be monitored.
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Current Forecasts: (JULY FORECAST)
13 Named storms
7 Hurricanes
4 Major Hurricanes
Current Atlantic Numbers:
4 Named storms
1 Hurricane
0 Major Hurricanes
Current Eastern Pacific Numbers:
6 Named storms
5 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
I will have another update later in the week on the developing situation in the tropics...
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