Alright folks first enter since last yere lol.
First I want to comment how the drought has affected my area, drought conditions here are the worst Ive seen since 98', incredibly brown around here, hasn't rained in 3 weeks now, grass is nearly gone, my front and back yard is mostly dead grass and dusty now, rain is needed terribly.
Ok, there is is some good news, its lookin like the wet season pattern may try to take shape just in time for June, models are to jumpy to buy any one model, but they all show a general break down of the ridge with deep layer moisture making a significant increase in the area, that combined with clomotology which says we should get things kickin with rain by June is enough to have some confidence in this change. Although, for now, I'm nott too confident till we get in near term because the way its been so far, hard to judge if it will actually get wet or not yet, although its steadily lookin better.
I'll just thrown in the ole NWS discussion lol.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 271742
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
142 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2007
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...GFS/NAM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE GULF AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST TO FL AND THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUE AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OFFSHORE
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BACK WEST...OVER
THE SE STATES AND FL...WITH A DRY AND STEADY EASTERLY FLOW. SOME
LOWER CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS FROM THE EAST AT TIMES BUT EXPECT PARTLY
SUNNY TO BE THE DAY TIME RULE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTH SIDE THE SURFACE RIDGE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AND WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW ODDS OF CONVECTION THE FAR SOUTH TUE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AROUND AVERAGE AND UNIFORM DAY TO DAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WATCHING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN CWFA. BUT LIKE YESTERDAY EXPECT THESE TO TREK EASTWARD WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT AND WILL HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS.
.LONG TERM (TUE NT-SUN)...UPPER WEAKNESSES/VORT MAXES CONTINUE TO
MOVE THRU GENERAL UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD EARLY
MID-LATE WEEK. SFC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
KEEP LL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES AT
ALL LEVELS WITH DIURNAL SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCT DIURNAL POPS MOST AREAS MID-LATE WEEK WHILE TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND CLIMO.
LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF N PLAINS REGION TO FINALLY BREAK DOWN
UPPER RIDGE OVER E U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE AXIS RETREATS
SWARD AS LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HUMIDITY HAS JUST NOW BEGUN TO DROP ACROSS THE 3
NORTHERN MOST COASTAL COUNTIES AND HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING
THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF AREA WILL FLIRT
WITH CRITICAL RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON BUT INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL PRECLUDE DURATIONS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BUT SLOWLY
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 30 PERCENT RANGE
EACH AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIMITED DURATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE
RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FRI.
SPEEDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS TONIGHT ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND WILL BE AT THOSE SPEEDS AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. SOME
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASES WELL ABOVE 3000
FEET DISSIPATING AFTER 00Z. WILDFIRES CONTINUES E OF KFMY AND MAY
AGAIN SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBLY FROM SMOKE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 89 70 90 / 5 5 10 10
FMY 67 90 69 91 / 5 5 10 20
GIF 66 89 67 90 / 5 5 10 10
SRQ 67 90 68 90 / 5 5 10 10
BKV 64 90 65 91 / 5 5 10 10
SPG 74 87 75 88 / 5 5 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE...RKR
LONG TERM/AVIATION...CY/RD
