Paloma forms and steadily intensifies
Tropical Storm Paloma formed last night, and is steadily strengthening. Visible satellite images show a significant increase in organization of the storm is occurring, with low level spiral bands beginning to wrap around the center and upper level outflow expanding on all sides except to the south. Recent microwave images (Figure 1) indicate that Paloma is already starting to build an eyewall.
Figure 1. Microwave image of Paloma at 7:15 am EST Thursday November 6, 2008. A partial eyewall is evident on the southeast side of the center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
The intensity forecast
Wind shear has dropped to a very low 0-5 knots, and is expected to remain very low, 0-5 knots, over the next day. Wind shear will increase to 10-15 knots Friday and Saturday, as the storm heads north, but I don't expect Paloma will stop intensifying until it crosses 20° North Latitude (between the Cayman Islands and Cuba) Saturday night, when the shear will increase to 30-50 knots. Water temperatures are warm, 29°C, and this warm water extends to great depth. These are very favorable conditions for intensification, and Paloma should be a hurricane by Friday. I expect Paloma will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane when it passes through the Cayman Islands on Saturday. The latest (6Z, 1am EST) of the HWRF model predicts Paloma will pass though the Cayman Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 3 hurricane. The GFDL and SHIPS intensity models are less aggressive, predicting a Category 1 hurricane. I believe a Category 3 hurricane is more likely than a Category 1 hurricane for the Cayman Islands, and Paloma has the potential to imitate Hurricane Michelle of 2001. Michelle formed in the same region at the same time of year, and took just three days to intensify from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane. Michelle made landfall in central Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane as it passed through the Bahamas. Paloma will likely be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane at landfall in Cuba, and a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds in the Bahamas.
The track forecast
A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Several major models--the NOGAPS, GFS, and ECMWF--predict that Paloma will be torn in two by the wind shear just south of Cuba, with the low level remnants getting forced westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. This solution seems unlikely, given the fact that Paloma is likely to grow much stronger and more resistant to wind shear than these models are predicting. I expect Paloma will follow the track of the GFDL, HWRF, and GFS models, which show the storm may pass very close to Grand Cayman Island on Saturday, then make landfall in southern Cuba on Sunday and continue on through the central Bahamas.
Links to follow
Wundermap for 16N 83W
I'll have an update this afternoon. A new Hurricane Hunter plane is on its way to Paloma, and should arrive at the center around 1 pm EST.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Winds:65mph
Pressure:993mb
Hubby was meant to be flying to Brazil on Friday - now cancelled and I am meant to have friends arriving from the UK on Sunday evening for a short visit.
Looks like Paloma is going to trash all my plans - fingers crossed that it is only plans that she ruins
That product almost always shows a perfect circulation....Even in tropical disturbances. Although I agree that Paloma has a solid eye wall.
Sometimes does, but seemingly only when it is real. Here is the same thing right before Gustav got his act together...very messy.
Further: Winds on open water driven by geostrophic balance between Coriolis and pressure gradient are just that...a perfect circulation.
EDIT: Whisky Tango Foxtrot...where is the plot?
I see the same thing happening......in fact the NGP model as this first front missing Paloma....
India Delta Kilo
Definitly....look at the GFS ensemble models. The majority of them are in agreement with the CMC.
Mirror Site (New Format)
Yep
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 19:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Paloma1
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:20:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°13'N 81°48'W (16.2167N 81.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 215 miles (346 km) to the S (187°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,370m (4,495ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SSE (165°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 262° at 52kts (From the W at ~ 59.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSE (166°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,545m (5,069ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,505m (4,938ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph) in the southeast quadrant at 17:11:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the north quadrant at 19:24:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SSE (155°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INFRQ LTG S EYEWALL, LGT TURBC N EYEWALL
Is that local or regional? Compare to the graph from my station in Austin, Texas. The upturn at the end is from the dry line that went through last night.
It won't hit FL
Answer: probably both. The environment for Paloma to initially develop would show a pressure depression and then Paloma's own deepening 87 NM to the south. Good comment, though...someone in Austin is actually paying attention.. ;-)
Haha!
Well spotted, sir!
Further: If you were a student member, they will also discount your full membership for a while right after you graduate.
Mirror Site (New Format)
Anyone have a link to a good animated isobar map of the region/hemisphere?
Cannot find a good one ready-made and freely available. One method might be to download the 0 hour forecast (nowcast) MSLP plots from GFS runs for the last couple of days and make them loop. Gotta go...later, all.
WTNT32 KNHC 062357
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PALOMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
700 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008
CORRECTED HURRICANE STATUS IN LOCATION PARAGRAPH
...PALOMA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
INTERESTS IN CUBA AND JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PALOMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM EST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 280 MILES...450 KM
...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.
PALOMA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND MOST OF DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FORECAST TO OCCUR
LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. PALOMA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY
ORGANIZE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42057 LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
71 MPH...115 KM/HR AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY DATA FROM THE NEARBY NOAA
BUOY IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
REPEATING THE 700 PM EST POSITION...16.9 N...81.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 1000 PM EST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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